Will the market increase tomorrow? I think so.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I predict the market will be up over 100 points tomorrow due to the great buying opportunities in the broader markets. Those out there that believe the market will crash tomorrow need to go take their Prozac and/or anti-psychotics because they will be sadly disappointed.

-- jbsmith (joebobsmith@yahoo.com), October 13, 1999


any relation to 'Buffalo Bob' Smith??

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), October 13, 1999.

*If* we move down to about 10,250, it's good night nurse, and you can kiss your a**es good-bye.

Don't necessarily expect a huge crash overnight, but the top has been reached and it is going the other way for good.

You heard it here FIRST.

Paul Milne

-- (brett@miklos.org), October 13, 1999.

Tomorrow afternoon, when the market closes up, I will still be here, I will still have my stocks, and the world will go on. Of course, the real crash will happen October 21 because some contrived graph says so. When the events don't happen, as has been the case so many times over the last couple of years, people make up new dates. NOTHING ever comes of them. Just wait and see.

-- jbsmith (joebobsmith@yahoo.com), October 13, 1999.

Globex is all in the black tonite 6:40 PDT:


Maybe a technical bounce is in order for the AM?


-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 13, 1999.

I'm proud of myself...I figured the KYAGB really quick!

-- Psychotic (y2k@doom@gloom.com), October 13, 1999.

Psychotic- Me too! Although initially I had a brief flash it might have something to do with Russia (dumb blond mode).

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), October 13, 1999.


I would hope you won't put any money into the market on that notion. Tomorrow would NOT be a good time. Here's why:

10 out of 14 oscillators/indicators are bearish to VERY Bearish on the Short term and Long term basis. This includes the following technical oscillators:

Directional Movement Index; ADX Line; Rate of Change; Slow Stochastics; Commodity Channel Index; MACD Convergence; Rate of Change Indicator; Relative Strength Indicator; Momentum Indicator ; Moving Average Exponential Indicator.

There are 4 others that are Bullish but only in the intermediate term. The best technical oscillators suggest the down trend could/should continue for a few more days...then there will be a bounce before the downward trend resumes. The Long term trend is Very Bearish. The Markets are way over bought. It will take some time and price drops before the indicators get bullish again.

While it is possible to see a 3,200 point drop in the DJIA, don't count on it at all for tomorrow. The entire downmove trend for the next 30 days would not likely see that much of a point drop. Just nearly impossible to happen technically. You could see a 500 point drop though on Thursday... More likely somewhere between 2-- to 300 would be the most optimistic bearish goal for Thur. Then Friday perhaps a 300 to 500 point drop... followed by another similar move on Monday or perhaps Then a BOUNCE UP on Tuesday.

I'm not saying that this will happen, but for Bears fans...this is probably you're most realistic hope for the short term action. After the bounce kicks in there will be a few days of choppy action perhaps 5 or 8 more trading days of choppiness...then perhaps another kick downwards towards month end. I think it is unrealistic to expect this market to drop lower than 9,500 DJIA this month.

Having said all of that... this is not the time to be buying for ANY reason, whether for long or short term. Too much risk of seeing this market go down and stay down for a long, long, long time. If Y2k is even a "4" it will take a long time, maybe 10 -20 years before this market could break new all-time highs. If its just a 2 or 3...still, with the shift of the economy from manufacturing to service, the fragility of the banks, and the shaky geopolitical situation (China may take out Taiwan before long, N. Korea may nuke S. Korea soon, or how about India-Pakistan at war and let us not forget terrorism going hi-tech)... any of these things could "tank" stocks for 5 to 10 years. Combine it with even a BITR out of Y2K and you have a "grim" grind downward in stocks for a good long while...and it will be a painful road back up.

As an old retired commodities trader, I can tell you that absent of major fundamental news, the markets trade on the technical factors. Right now the "price-bar charts" look really ugly for the bulls but looking mighty fine for the bears (for a change). As a technician, I'd not be likely to buy any DJIA tomorrow... YET... the opening might indeed go up 100 points as the "short-traders" cash out of any shorts so as to take profits so that they can plunge back in with even more volume to the downside. HAVE FUN boys and girls.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


Just wanted to let you know how helpful I found your explanation of commodities trading on a previous gold thread. It was excellent study material for a layperson seeking some foundational understanding. I really appeciate you sharing your experience and analysis with the forum.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), October 14, 1999.


Thanks for taking a moment to let me know. I always wonder whether or not I should say anything, but the way posts were going, I figured it might benefit some folks to pass along some of the wisdom I learned from a lot of painful lessons. I'll probably keep popping in from time to time when folks out there get overly excited in one direction or another. IF the market tanks, I'll try to come in and provide some technical analysis that might help cut thru the fog a bit and I expect there'd be some. There always is when a market goes nuts either up or down.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


Are you SURE you really aren't one of Lou's "Elves"???


-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 14, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ