O.T. Stock Market Crash on Red Alert

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Check out this URL:


-- Claire (stalkingthebear@aol.com), October 13, 1999


I hear you. For more verification of the near-term, and even scarier, see http://www.dowguru.com

Note especially pages 1 and 7.

The DJIA has clearly broken down today through the trendline drawn there. The S&P500 needs to close BELOW 1255 TO verify. That is about 5% down from where it is now.

On Monday, the NASDAQ100 closed at an all-time high--TOTALLY UNCONFIRMED BY ALL INDEXES. ALL INDEXES.

It will be said to be the final shoe that dropped to announce the end of the Great Asset Mania.

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 13, 1999.

OMIGOD!! I'm blind! I just read that red page at the URL and it temporarily blinded me. Do us a favor and past the text here I can't look at it any longer.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.

Most of the Asian Pacifics are crashing now too.. China, Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand,...

This page updates every few minutes:

world indexes

-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.

For @@@@, here is the meat of it:Commentary as of 10/12/99:

STOCK MARKET ON CRASH ALERT!!!!!. We have been on "yellow alert" since September 25, and now on 10/12, I am going to "red alert!!!" READ THE INFORMATION BELOW (then look out below!)

August 25 is the high in the Dow Industrials, and Tuesday, Oct 12 is the 48th calendar day since the Aug 25th top of the Dow.

Yellow Alert means it is time to begin preparation for a possible storm. Between 35 and 45 calendar days after the high, the market needs to recover and make it to new highs to reset the "crash watch" count down. If the market fails to attain new highs by the 45th to 50th calendar day after the top, I then go to "red alert". A failing high around the "40 day corner" is the target time to put on additional futures put option positions.

The period of the extreme volatility is often between 50 and 60 calendar days after the day of the top. (The crash in 1929 was the 55th and 56th calendar day after the day of the high. In 1929 the low close was the 71st calendar day after the day of the high. In 1987 the crash was the 56th calendar day after the day of the high. In 1994, the period of greatrest volatility was the 58th to 63rd calendar day after the day of the high.)

The Futures Option expiration date of October 15 is the 51st calendar day after the day of the high. Based on this pattern, the possible days of the greatest volatility can range from October 14 to October 26. Based on patterns of the past, volatility could increase daily until climaxing with a CRASH between the 22nd and the 26th of October.

The "CRASH ALERT" is the watch for the move to the likely "CLIMAX" of extreme volatility. The increase in volatility today, just after the 40 day corner is a strong sign that we are on the path that ends up at the bottom of the cliff! The "CLIMAX" is the END of the decline.

Hope that helps, Claire.

-- Claire (stalkingthebear@aol.com), October 13, 1999.

Aaaaaahhh, that's better... thanks Claire. That was some intense website!

-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.

I should have added to my post above that you must click on "1999 Crash" on the left side to get to the graph pages.

Jim Stack of Investech has come out with more BAD technical indicators(they actually can't get much lower in his system of measuring/weighting). His site is at http://www.investech.com

Does anyone know if Intel announced its earnings shortfall BEFORE or AFTER the market closed Tuesday? This is VERY important for the market tomorrow.

With a 200+ point drop tuesday, that's all we'd need to turn market sentiment VERY NEGATIVE when a flagship stock (one of the few holding up the major averages) tanks.

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 13, 1999.

Profit of doom,

After the market closed, very bad news;


-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.


Hold the phone there. Many of the Asian Pacifics are down 1.x or 2.x per cent, but to call that crashing seems a bit much. If we were to call that crashing, what would we call a 10% to 20% intra-day drop? 1.x to 2.x per cent up or down is almost business as usual lately.

OK, perhaps I'm being picky, but that's my $0.02 worth on it.


-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 13, 1999.


The Intel announcement was after NYSE close. S&P futures dropped several points, perhaps 7 or so, after Intel's announcement. Intel is one of the larger components of the S&P 500.

I'll bet a nickel, perhaps even a whole dime, that the major indices will not open up today (Wednesday). :-O


-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 13, 1999.


Yeah you're right, crashing isn't really the right word because of what it implies. Guess it should be "falling" or "sliding". Some of the Asian markets close down when they lose 3% or so because they consider that more severe than we do I guess. If our market starts blowing the circuit breakers 10%, 20%, then I would consider that a crash, and definitely indicative of a major recession or depression.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.

Perhaps I should clarify that the wise crack about not opening up translates to opening down, as opposed to not opening at all. (One can never be sure how a quip may be interpreted.)


-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 13, 1999.

Europe is sliding too. Don't think I've ever seen so much red in the International markets.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.

I have, earlier this year.

The markets were, once again, staring into the abyss. They pulled off an up day and the rest of the world followed.

This time will be different. No turning back. She's going down and going down hard.

-- Me (me@me.me), October 13, 1999.


What is causing the entire world to go negative, is this all a response to the bad day on the NYSE? I have a feeling that a lot of other countries are more wise to the realities of Y2K than Americans are. It appears that every time we make a move they are going to go the same way which pretty much guarantees the collapse of the entire global economy.

Who's that blowhard polly that's always bragging about what a SAP he is? Is that Hoffmeister or Decker? Well in case he doesn't know it his company looks to be feelin our pain:

SAP is sucking air

Just wait till next year when everybody sues 'em for their dysfunctional software remediation! Toast.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.

Due to the military overthrow in Pakistan market is closed and they have declared a bank holiday to prevent runs on currency.

At 1100 hours GMT, 33 out of 37 (about 90%) of the active international markets are in negative territory. Looks like the global economy is ready to go down all in one big crash as soon as the significant crashes begin to happen.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 13, 1999.

Buy Raytheon.

-- Spidey (in@jam.dow), October 13, 1999.

Sell Radio

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), October 13, 1999.

Looks like business as usual to me. Why this freak-out thread ?

-- ms x (x@x.x), October 13, 1999.

Because people are scared. Very, very scared.

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), October 13, 1999.

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