Russ:

As a tecnical expert in things Y2K, I would like for you to explain, if you will, why you are more confident of a less disastrous 2000 than you once were.

In the thread here about fear, you make note of that stance. Yet, on the other board, you point to the obvious fallacy of government leading industry in remediation.

My question offers no assumptions and is not based on any doubt as to your grounded opinions. With a daughter in college, with whom you've conversed (and wasn't she polite and well-mannered?) and a whole lot to look forward to, I'd like a little evidence pointing to why you think things may not be so bad after all.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), October 12, 1999

Answers

Rus- My position (1/3 century IT person...) (1) Much more remediation will be done than I had thought. Things will be better than TEOTWAWKI.

(2) Much is not being done...and all will not be done. I'll still go for the 7-9 range...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 13, 1999.

Vic -- I would agree pretty closely with Mad Monk's post above as he wrote it. Where I flat-out expected a 9, I now expect a 7-9. That ain't hardly great, tho. Ask any pollie. I still get to wear my tinfoil hat.

I have been saying for several months that I am "slightly" or "somewhat" more optimistic than I was a year ago. That said, if it turned out NERC had snowed us, I wouldn't be surprised at all. Ditto telecom, water, etc. Heck, I'm forcing Morse Code into my brain so I can get a ham rig running by the end of the year. How optimistic is that??!!!

Ditto the government, of course. They HAVE snowed us.

Also, as I tried to point out on the thread about Lord's scenarios, slow-motion recession/depression, while a lot better than explosive collapse, is hardly likely to be fun. I do agree with Lord (and Yardeni) that a boom is likely to follow Y2K, but I'm looking to somewhere after 2005 for that.

Unfortunately, any nuance is seized upon as evidence that one has been turned to "the dark side of the Force" (whichever side that may be, of course)!

The main point I was trying to make about fear (and I have always felt this) is that, barring a terrorist attack in your location, the odds are pretty good that you/someone will have days to weeks of advance warning as things devolve. A "5" won't become a "9" overnight.

Consequently, the goal ought to be to establish bug-out plans, be ready to execute them when conditions warrant but otherwise concentrate on taking "deep breaths" and relaxing. Just as the official PR spin can be read between the lines today, so can it be read between the lines in mid-December, mid-January or mid-March. The wise will have time to act, IMO.

Does this make sense? If not, ask some more questions.

Yes, your daughter was VERY polite and well-mannered and, even better, had nice things to say about her dad! I hope school is going well for her and that she is keeping "first things first" in her spiritual life, as we discussed. Please say "hello" to her.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 13, 1999.

Russ and Monk:

I, too, am a bit more optimistic than I was a year ago, and I know the reason. I believe that many of us--knowing full well that we've been lied to--have fallen at least a bit under the spell of the spinmeisters.

Of all people, I should know better, having spent more than 15 years in the newspaper business as a reporter, editor and publisher. I know how it's done, but damned if the steady drip doesn't eventually have an effect.

I have hopeful days and dismal days, and I think I have some company in that regard. We're as ready as we can be, and while I have my fingers crossed, I still fear that bad things are just down the road, not necessarily just Y2K.

As I'm sure you can appreciate, one of the things that keeps me going and on an even keel is my daughter and the promise she shows. She deserves better than what I fear awaits her. So do all the children.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), October 13, 1999.

I have to say that, although I am more *optimistic* than when I first discovered this issue, most of it is from education on the basic parameters rather than an improving situation, IMHO.

Where I once feared, through ignorance, that most or all microprocessors were faulty, I now know that the percentage is much less. Too bad the worst failures probabilities seem to be concentrated in controls systems.........

Once I feared a cold, silent world on 01/01/2000. Now I see the probability of a messy, panicky, disorder and chaos ridden roller coaster ride to wherever we end up.

Through all of this year, despite the news about how well the *big boys* were doing, I never expected more than 60% of the Fortune 1000 to finish even their mission critical systems before rollover. I have seen nothing to change that opinion.

As for electric, well, I'm going to assume NERC spun us until proven otherwise. Especially when they wrote their July "report" in January.

As for banking, well, when I read on the Senate site yesterday the testimony that the Organization for International Monitoring (?) submitted for international banking, saying that the situation was too grave to, in their opinion, submit their full report to such a public forum, well, that is GRIM.

The powers that be are starting to sound like Scarey Gary, folks. We have 78 days to rollover.

The ONLY basis I have for optimism is my preps, my support from my family, and a determination to come through this with my family intact, fed, and sheltered.

-- mushroom (mushroom_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.

I think we have maybe all made the unknown a little bit more known by doing our homework. I've probably averaged over an hour per day for two years on trying to understand this problem. I still don't understand it, but it is now quite familiar to me.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), October 14, 1999.