This just in, the world's population will reach 6 billion sometime this week.

Uh,...not for long.

Does anyone have the latest estimates?

-- Reaper, The Grim (deathtakesaholiday@not.com), October 10, 1999

Answers

Islam and Russia will cut that number down to 2 billion within twenty years..So dont worry, be happy.

-- fred (fred@al.com), October 10, 1999.

The current population of planet Earth is:

The image link is: http://sunsite.unc.edu/lunarbin/pop.gif

It should update with each reload of this page..

-- Zach Anderson (z@figure.8m.com), October 10, 1999.

"...seasons don't fear the reaper, nor do the wind and the summer rain.

-- Theme Song For The Rollover (ablueoyster@cult.com), October 10, 1999.

Wheeeeew! 50 babies in the last 10 seconds... that's disgusting.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 10, 1999.

Y2K isn't the bug, we are.. sheez, worse than damn cockroaches... wounder when mother nature's going to spray?

-- C (c@c.com), October 10, 1999.

Breed, breed
without heed

Like cats,
dogs and rats.

-- A (A@AisA.com), October 10, 1999.

It's more like 80 born in the last 10 seconds and 30 died, I think... as for the real number, who knows? Some less developed countries have no idea how large their population is.

Yes, it is WE who are the vermin... and when the earth has had enough it will simply vomit us off!

-- Y2KGardener (gardens@bigisland.net), October 10, 1999.

I think of the impact y2k will have on the efficacy of 8 births/second in this world then wonder how the hell Flint can say that he only estimates that 500 people will be killed by y2k.

-- a (a@a.a), October 10, 1999.

There is NO population problem.

Hell even China is EXPORTING food now! The fastest growing health problem in China is obesity. (CATO Institute)

Maybe its not a birth problem but a keeping people alive problem.

Most are so afraid of death.

-- David Lee Roth (Diver Down@Van Halen.ou812), October 10, 1999.

Isn't this why we have earthquakes, floods, famines, disease, wars, acts of terrorism, automobile accidents, airplane crashes, gunshot accidents, cigarettes, alcohol, and on and so forth for population control? Next step should be mandatory sterilization of male babies.

-- wackem (wackem@wackemm.xcom), October 10, 1999.

David, I disagree. There IS a population problem. We're living in a closed system, my friend, or "on" it actually. There is just so much the planet can provide. What happens a few years from now when that 6 billion doubles and becomes 12 billion? And then doubles again and becomes 24 billion? From what I understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, but population growth is supposedly increasing exponentially, shooting WAY up that y-axis in a big hurry. That's an awful lot of mouths to feed. What are we going to turn to do the job, Soylent Green? I me

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), October 10, 1999.

One child per couple globally-no exceptions.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 10, 1999.

HEY my favorite subject! Seriously! But check out www.dismantle.com for more info on world pop. We were PROJECTED to hit 6 billion this month. Guess when we hit it instead???? Way back in JULY, people!!! Scary enough for ya? Despite the fact that most of the world's population still live in areas with primitive or nonexistent medical care, the death rate is still pretty low, esp in comparison to the world's birth rate. Disgusting, isn't it?

And for whoever mentioned all the natural disasters, terrorism, disease, etc., hate to tell you this, but once you realize how fast we are breeding, you realize what a tiny tiny dent those things make in the population RATE of growth. The earthquakes in Turkey were truly awful--something like 35,000 dead? We made it up in less than a day. (Don't get me wrong--I don't want to seem as if I am debasing those lives lost--I view all life as precious as we all should, just comparing the sheer numbers.) Plane crash, couple hundred dead? Couple of minutes of births around the world, at the most.

DH and I stopped at one child. If you ever want to be really scared, go to www.parentsplace.com and check out "Boards" and then the "Tons of Kids" board. You have to have at least 4 children to participate in this support board for people with lots of children. If you do have 4 or 5, though, you are in the minority. Most have 10 or more biological children. One woman has 20 and is expecting #21 in March. I would just lurk, though. They can get quite touchy, as I once found out. It distresses me. They just seem to have a lot of children just *because*. It CAN'T be easy. It CAN'T be anything less than horribly expensive. The food bills. The medical bills. What if 3-4 of them need braces at the same time? My apologies to those here who happen to have more than 2. I just personally don't believe it is very responsible to bring so many kids into this world when we are rapidly moving towards a day when the earth will no longer be able to sustain all of us. AFter all, we are already using artificial and chemical means of growing our food since it has to be done on such a HUGE scale.

And I've never understood the vain desire to have one after another biological child. What is wrong with adopting children who have already been born into this world who need a loving home if you want a huge family? Adopt tons of 'em!

I don't know...I get a tad distressed over the world population issue.

I guess it's not always so great to see the forest instead of just the trees.

-- Preparing (preparing@home.com), October 10, 1999.

Preparing - Well said.

I don't know what the figure is, but I'd say that a proportion in the high-nineties percent of all the world's problems are caused by over- population. Go on - think about it. Choose any serious problem - pollution, lack of fresh water, soil erosion, depletion of resources, you name it. Work it back to the source and you're sure to come back to the same conclusion: too many people.

It always makes me think of that bumper-sticker: "Save the world - kill yourself"!

The term "species die-off" has been used on this forum about humans. It can and will happen - the longer the population rises out of control, the more severe the die-off wil be.

-- Y2KGardener (gardens@bigisland.net), October 10, 1999.

Hey mikey.. DUCK!!... PZZZzzzzzzt

Whew that was a close one. Guess I missed again. Well time to reload. (grin)

-- michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), October 10, 1999.

Hummmmm.. maybe we should quit trying to convert the pollies? Let nature restore her balance, weeding the lame &/or stupid...

-- C (c@c.com), October 10, 1999.

>> Let nature restore her balance, weeding the lame &/or stupid... <<

Nature's best weapon for weeding humans has been, and remains, parasites and disease organisms. These have no special affinity for the lame or stupid. Nevertheless, they may eventually kill you.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 11, 1999.

Did anyone notice tonight that both ABC and NBC had a story on the world pop hitting 6 billion. They said the UN estimates the 6 billionth person was born today. Guess again, guys! We are WAY past 6 billion and counting. They showed India as an example (that country has 1 billion and adds 22 million, as much as the pop of Australia, every year) and then talked about Italy. You know, much has been mentioned on this forum about the "spin" the newsmeisters put on things and I have always agreed w/that but never had much proof until tonight. They spoke of Italy's declining population (weird for a Catholic country) and how the govt is now offering $100 month benefits (the equivalent in lira) to every couple who have a third child, but they FAILED to mention this underpopulation (the death rate is HIGHER than the birth rate in Italy) is because years ago, the govt instituted a voluntary, though heavily-pushed agenda to get couples to have one child each, MAYBE two, if necessary. The country's average # of children per family is 1.5 or 1.7 (I STILL don't understand where you get a fraction of a child!)

So ABC made this big deal about how Italy's pop is declining and the govt wants it up when it was the govt who wanted it down years ago! In fact, female infanticide and abortion in Italy, though not as widespread as China, is still very high (the old cultural bias for a boy).

So they tell ONE side of the story. They also mentioned the Pope thinks it is selfish to restrict the number of children you have. What is more selfish? Destroying the planet that sustains us? Or spitting out kid after kid after kid after kid? When we were told to go forth and multiply, if that is your theology (and it happens to be mine, by the way) THERE WERE HARDLY ANY PEOPLE AROUND! I don't really think we need to do much more multiplying.

As for disease, our medical technology has vastly lenghtened our lives, for good or bad. I had a great aunt who died of a sinus infection that got worse and worse and worse until it spread through her body in 1917 (she was 19 years old). Would that happen now? Nope. Not that that is a bad thing. I am certainly happy that I won't die of a sinus infection gone crazy, but we depend too much (in our minds) on natural disasters and disease to curb the population. We need to start curbing ourselves. Vasectomy, anyone??? ;-)

-- Preparing (preparing@home.com), October 11, 1999.

If there is a time bomb ticking for us, this is it. We may not know what the world's carrying capacity is, but we can certainly reach it if we haven't passed it already (we're borrowing from the future in thousands of ways). The good news is, this problem is self- correcting. The bad news is the corrected situation may not include any humans.

Most people here will be gratified to know I'm childless.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 11, 1999.

French Demographer Denounces UN World Population Claims 10-7-99 PARIS (ZENIT)- Pierre Chaunu, professor emeritus of the Sorbonne and member of the French Academy, becomes irate when asked to comment on the U.N. report on population. UNFPA announced that by October 12, there will be 6 billion human beings on earth. "This data is false, we are faced with a genuine manipulation of the kind used against Pius XII." During 50 years of demographic research, Chaunu has analyzed all aspects of the growth and diminution of populations. In 1975 he denounced the demographic collapse of the West. "For the past 35 to 40 years we have witnessed a incredible deceleration of fertility rates, but these calculations are never kept in mind. All the African figures are inflated, as was shown in the result of a census carried out in Nigeria a few years ago, whose figures in no way agreed with those of the United Nations. He said the Nigerian calculations were also false. Africa has one hundred million less people than the official figures." Q - Why would this data be inflated? PIERRE CHAUNU: The international organisms have spent huge sums to impose a very authoritarian birth control plan in many countries, which must be justified by announcing an imminent danger for all the planet. Having said this, it is true that there have been periods in which the rate of growth of world population was excessive. But regulation follows spontaneously with an improvement in the standard of living. It is not necessary to falsify the data. Everyone knows that the population of the former USSR has always grown in a constant way, in perfect accord with the government's 5-year plans. In 1939, 3.5 million persons were not accounted for. We know that in the gulags, between 40-50 million people died in Russia alone, a country which does not reflect this in its official data. In the former USSR, where there is one live birth for every 7 abortions, and where the span of life has diminished, 292 million people have never existed. Also China's data -- a country that at present is not replacing its generations, is not credible. Q - And Europe? PIERRE CHAUNU: In Europe at present there isn't a single country in which the population has a positive balance in its demographic growth, while in 12 or 15 countries, among them Italy and Germany, there are more deaths than births. If the figures have remained stable in Germany it is thanks to the immigration from the Eastern countries. Even Latin America, with Brazil at the top of the list, has stopped growing. People do not know that in North Africa, in the Magreb, the population is decreasing at a speed that reminds one of Siciliy and southern Italy 15 years ago. At present in Italy we are faced with a rate of 0.8 children per woman, which is an authentic race toward death. Today there is talk of a transition period, that is, the step from demographic explosion to implosion, but this phenomenon already happened 50 years ago. According to my calculations, in the totality of the planet, the generations will not be replaced beginning the year 2020. The fact is that the phenomenon of the total drop in population is not obvious in the first 30 years, because the population continues to grow due to the effect of aging." Q - Why do you think the United Nations continues to sound the alarm today? PIERRE CHAUNU: Although they realize they have made a mistake in their calculations, in name of the good cause, a certain number of North American experts play with fear: fear of invasion and asphyxiation by the citizens of the third world. http://www.sightings.com/politics5/worldpop_p.htm

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), October 12, 1999.

Hi, Mumsie,

PIERRE CHAUNU is a voice in the dark. This is the theory of one person. I can't refute it, except to say that virtually all data I have seen are in opposition to his. I did hear a report on NPR this morning that some European countries have shrinking populations (I only remember one for sure: Greece; I am a bit jealous. Imagine how cheap a house or land would be in a country with shrinking population) But they didn't say whether this was a long term trend, or just a "bump in the road" :)

I have a very hard time believing that the population of Latin America is shrinking.

I wonder what this guy's hidden agenda is?

Even the POPE isn't making claims that the population is shrinking!

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), October 13, 1999.

Al -

You needed to listen more closely. NPR was discussing the "amazing" (their term) deceleration of the birth rate in countries throughout the world. Many are falling below replacement rate, meaning a net loss in population. This is a very unhealthy situation for any country, since it will face a shortage of the young people needed to support the remaining aging population.

The current generation of Italian Catholic women who are opting to have children are choosing to have one or two, perhaps three, but nothing like the 6 or 8 of their mothers' generation. Ditto Germany, Greece, India, many others.

Lots of Boomers got born, but it appears that their kids (the Echo Boom) are choosing to have far fewer children.

So don't sweat the occasional big family you see, friends. The figures for the past ten years indicate that world population growth is slowing significantly, and soon may actually begin to show "negative growth".

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 13, 1999.

Here's a link to that "World Population" piece from NPR's Morning Edition (Requires RealAudio)

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 13, 1999.

Mac, I wish I had been able to listen more closely to that program, but I was at work, and can't always stop sawing and hammering. But I think we are saying pretty much the same thing. I stated in my post that I had heard that some countries in Europe had populations which are shrinking, but I didn't, and still don't, know if this is a long term trend or a bump in the road, (like a brief decline in a contiuous upwardly trending sine curve) I don't believe the program stated that Latin America's population has been shrinking. True, it did say the the birth rates have been declining, and I find this very encouraging. But I personally will be pleased when I hear that most countries have a gradually shrinking (long term) population. I'd like to see the inhabitants of this planet see some real live nature, on the scale that I experienced as a child, and the type that I saw being "utilized" to the max out here on the west coast to the point that most of the forests are "plantations" and most of the rivers and the air are polluted.

I'm very glad that you pointed out NPR's statement about "the amazing deceleration in the birthrate throughout the world. I didn' hear that part, and it makes me very encouraged to hear it. That's where you and I differ. I am HOPING that the population of the planet will eventually shrink to the level it was at dozens of years ago. (maybe to stabilize at, say, a couple of billion) Then, if we can continue to make improvements in pollution control, alternative energy, etc. we may be able to enjoy a true Golden Age.

Certainly I won't be around to enjoy it, as I'm in my fifties, but I feel responsible to future generations.

You say, "...a net loss in population. This is a very unhealthy situation for any country, since it will face a shortage of the young people needed to support the remaining aging population."

I agree that there will be challenges in a shrinking population, and not just because of a possible shortage of young people to support the remaining population. (We already have had to deal with this facet of the problem just because of fluctuations in population, like the baby boomers outnumbering their children and grandchildren)

There will be adjustments needed in many many facets of our economy. Just one example: I'm a builder. The building trade in this country is currently relying on a growing population to generate a need for lots of new housing. If the population starts shrinking, what will we builders do for a living? It's a valid concern. But, on the other hand, the cost of housing will go way down, I assume, and that will be benficial to everyone who's NOT a builder (or in another phase of development) So perhaps the money saved by all these people will be available for other uses. Like training builders to do other things. Like helping the old folks. Or becomming teachers, or who knows? This is just speculation on my part, but I truly believe we can not only solve the problems, but thrive in a shrinking population.

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), October 13, 1999.