Stock Market - Serious Questiongreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
There are plenty of "big boys" out in the investment community who even though they are usually not techno-savants nonetheless have access to the opinions of many talented subordinates, statistically some of which would be GIs or other high caliber sources. Most of these "big-boys" didn't rise to the top to be CEO's, or sit on the board of directors, or acquire millions to manage by being stupid. And certainly they would have superior skills at sorting through conflicting and difficult ideas to objectively find what is really happening.
Therefore there should be enough of these GI "big-boys" managing billions who realize that owning equities now is a fool's gamble and they would be noticably impacting the market. Any insights as to why we don't see their scramble to the exit? This is a serious question from a 4 to 7 believer hoping for real insights.
-- Dana (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1999
Therefore there should be enough of these GI "big-boys" managing billions who realize that owning equities now is a fool's gamble and they would be noticably impacting the market. Any insights as to why we don't see their scramble to the exit?"
My guess: timing?
-- Kurt Ayau (Ayau@iwinet.com), October 08, 1999.
Thanks Kurt: Let's pretend that you and I were "big boys" managing our parent's estate worth 350 million. Even if our staff had identified November 15th as the date when the "great adjustment" will start would it be prudent for us to risk losing 20 to 45 % of our stock portfolio in order to capture the 1 to 2% the market might rise between now and 11/15? Remember the market could start crumbling well before the "big and scary date" and we would see an additional 1 to 2% evaporate as well as riding the market down. I think you would agree with me.
There is something missing in my understanding of their personality profiles and that is what I hope you or someone else can shed light upon. They by definition would have to have a higher percent of GI's in their midst than the general public.(P.S. This is not bait or troll talk.)
-- Dana (email@example.com), October 08, 1999.
My uneducated and totally ignorant guess is this:
The Global Federal Reserve banks are literally controlling everthing including--Gold,silver,Yen,Euro,Oil,And last but not the easiest the Stock market.
If you take a look over the last two weeks you will see three or more distinct correlations. 1. when the yen moves the stock market moves 2.when the stock market goes down big-gold was going up big.
3.When the Stock market fell last week 222pts. it mysteriously started coming back to finish at 0. They (fed) can buy a couple here and their to get it going easily in the right direction, because they know when they do a few of the big boys will follow on the way up and make some money on the huuuuuge swings up,down,up,down same stocks every frigging day. They all know what is going on at least if they dont they deserve to lose everything they have made over the last few years. Since the advent of e-trading everyone can see real time stuff so this is literally going to go down to who blinks first.. I swear to god---that is the level of bluff that is going on right now. All its going to take just as in 1929 is a couple of the big players to say---"Ok thats enough time to cash out." And Bammmmmmmmmmmmm! watch the servers on all these ubiqitous e- stocks lock up and then we go to the phones and they are all busy.
Panic----Computers stop trading and then the public come homes from their 401k jobs and stare into cnbc with disbelief because just that fast they will know its allllllllllllll gone. We are dealing with greeeeeeed combined with the speed of light internet these days not the ole stock ticker tape unfortunately so this time when it goes it will be like the bungy cord breaking--snap.
Breath taking in its scope---if we all think about it now it will be easier when it happens. we will be mentally prepared.
Example: there is no way I would ever have purchased gold options two weeks ago, but I did based on information that the Bank of england was manipulating Gold prices by selling tons when the price of gold had already been at 20yr lows. The reasoning was that they wanted to devalue it to swoop back in and make money on its obvious increase. Then the weekend after gold really started to move on a friday a week ago. Thirteen euro Fed reserve banks have a special meeting and put out a report that they are going to hold onto their gold for 5 years to keep it from falling more. Hello---FALLING--the damn price jumped $8.00 on the friday before their meeting. More fodder for the sheeple. At that point I knew what was up and bought gold options. you would not believe what they are worth. All based on the manipulations that are going on.
Someon on the thread has recommended buy Stock options at 7000 but I'm not sure if it drops that far one could get their money since there is talk now that the future trader cant cover their shorts due to lack of money. I could go on and on---let me just say I am no mental giant (check out the typing) but I have an uncanny ability to recognize the big picture and when you look at the big picture-it does not make any logical sense at all. It is all a game to maximize profits to the last second and I mean the last second. The heat is turning up.
watch the broad base!!!!!!
-- David Butts (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1999.
Intelligent people on a big ship do not want to believe that it could possibly sink, even while they see it listing. German heirarchy remained gullible to Hitler's promises, even as thousands of unanswered bombers rained steel upon them. I could point out numerous other scenarios that we "know" would alert us to get out of the way of an impending stampede. Your question poses a much deeper understanding of the human psyche than I possess, but thanks for the next 12 hours of deep thought.
-- space (email@example.com), October 08, 1999.
Excellent insights are evinced here.
Foreign investors are not yet sufficiently alarmed to withdraw their investments.
But when they do so, the stock market will crash!
Then the average American investor will be left with NOTHING!
Get out while you can! The writing is on the wall. Don't be stupid and wait for the upswing. If you do, then you will be left HANGING!
-- Randolph (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1999.
This is going to sound stupid but there is a point where you can not unwind all of your positions. Somewhere beyond $500,000 US, you can not just cash out. Where are you going to 1. 'get it' or 2. 'put it'? If you leave it in the bank you have to have a fundamental philosophy that they are not lying to you when they say that they are ready. At some point you have to trust someone, or try to take it out and hide it. Hide it where? In a safety deposit box, your house safe, bury it, convert it to gold. If it was gold you would need a big truck to deliver it, then you need a place again to put it.
Then again what about jubilee? Will your money go to leveling all of the debt of everyone else?(christian belief)
Maybe it is time to create your own philosophy. First, do you have enough Food, water, Shelter, Heat? If the answer is yes, how much money/gold/coins/silver do you think that you will need? It is time to set a limit and have it. Sure if your nest egg is only $10,000 sure take it out, but what if it is more. The original question was aimed at people who have millions. They can't just cash out.
Maybe you should just refocus your activity. If the cream always rises to the top. It does not matter what your investments are. However, deep the hole is, you will still rise to the top.
-- Ned P Zimmer (email@example.com), October 08, 1999.
DOW 13000 within the next few weeks.
-- Typhon Blue (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1999.
Perhaps some words from the book " The Warren Buffett Way " will help answer your question.
" The final justification for the institutional imperative is mindless imitation. If companies A, B, and C are behaving in a similar manner, then, reasons the CEO of company D, it must be all right for our company to behave the same way. It is not venality or stupidity, Buffett claims, that positions these companies to fail. Rather it is the institutional dynamics of the imperative that make it difficult to resist doomed behavior. Speaking before a group of Notre Dame students, Buffett displayed a list of thirty-seven failed investment banking firms. All of these firms, he explained, failed even though the volume of the New York Stock Exchange multiplied fifteenfold. These firms were headed by hard-working individuals with very high IQ's , all of whom had an intense desire to succeed. Buffett paused; his eyes scanned the room. " You think about that, " he said sternly. " How could they get a result like that? I'll tell you how, " he said, "mindless imitation of their peers." "
" According to Buffett, the institutional imperative exists when (1) an institution resists any cange in its current direction; (2) just as work expands to fill available time, corporate projects or acquisitions will materialize to soak up available funds; (3) any buisness craving of the leader, however foolish, will quickly be supported by detailed rate-of-return and strategic studies prepared by his troops; and (4) the behavior of peer companies, whether they are expanding, acquiring, setting executive compensation or whatever, will be mindlessly imitated. "
" Buffett believes that most managers have an exaggerated sense of their own management capabilities. "
-- Stanley Lucas (StanleyLucas@WebTv.net), October 08, 1999.
The dow will crash next week. Mark your calenders and watch it go down on Thursday.
-- dowcrash (email@example.com), October 08, 1999.
Gary North's Reality Check issue #35, "Simultaneous Forecasting Errors" (2/3/1999), is relevant to this kind of managerial thinking. You can access it at:
-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 08, 1999.
The typical CEO isn't quite as all understanding or as all questioning as you seem to think. for the most part they are recruited from the same human race that you and I are members of, with the same percentage of Fundamental Orifices, and great guys. Having had some contact with several of the F 500 CEO's, and some of the board members, I gota tell you that they ain't rocket scientists. Some of em are engineers (if you get Cory's list serve THAT should put yoiur mind at ease . . . . NOT), some of em are promoted bean counters (MY personal Bete Noir), and ALL of em are consumate politicians, well, ALMOST all of em, as I can think of 1 or2 that aren't quite consumate politicians but are DAMN good at it.
Don't expect that they have more of a clue about the market than you do. they are very busy worrying about internal, long range stuff, and have been very well insulated (for the most part) from day to day work.
Chuck, who drives a few of these folks now and then (we have a few F 500 HQ's here in Cleveburgh)
-- Chuck, a night driver (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 1999.
My way of chasing down Y2K is to track down ANYBODY who might be able to give me insight. During my travels and as a result of other relationships, I have had the pleasure of cross-examining some of these big boys. The list includes a senior VP and tech stock jock at Goldman Sachs, an economist at Prudential securities, a leading analyst at J. P. Morgan, internet venture capitalists, CEO's of several publically traded and privately owned software consulting companies, insiders in the pharmaceutical and chemical industry, and an almost limitless list of less prominent characters who might be able to offer a shred of information. Bottom line: some actually get it, most do not. If they could hold up even a rudimentary level argument I would question my beliefs on Y2K. The fact of the matter is that NONE of the ones who fail to get it appeared to be able to hold up such an argument. (For those who might think I am simply not hearing otherwise sound arguments, I consider Flint, Hoffmeister, and several others on this forum more than capable of holding up such an argument. I cannot begin to argue with them, I simply don't agree that the odds are low enough.)
In a recent email exchange with a friend in the business school on campus, I said I would like to hear of any sound arguments -- pro or con -- that he was receiving about Y2K. I told him that I didn't accept "arrogant scoffing" as a sound argument. He responded with: "You hit the nail on the head. All I hear is arrogant scoffing"
I tell people that I do not know what will happen, but that I am 100% convinced that there is "risk". They almost all concede this much. My question: What kind of moron sees "risk" and completely ignores it?
-- Dave (email@example.com), October 09, 1999.
You don't need a truck for a half a million in gold. That's only about 1500 ounces, or about 100 pounds, and would be smaller than a football.
-- Pinkrock (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 1999.
The heart is decietful above all things and desperately wicked; who can know it?
God....through the inspired words of the Jewish prophet Jeremiah chapter 17 verse 9
-- john (email@example.com), October 09, 1999.
Thank you one and all for your contributions.
I think that the bottom line from your helps is that my personal model has been too simplistic and my views of the super powerful as too idealistic.
Your inputs haven't been a case of someone quoting two lines from a Psych textbook and everyone singing the amen chorus but rather as I go thru the posts (over and over again) its like EVERY SINGLE ONE has something to point out. Chuck dropped an atomic bomb by pointing out that too often someone with superior political skills can rise to the top over somebody with better analytical/logical abilities.
So thanks again and please keep it coming.
Space, your twelve hours are up. Can't wait to hear your thoughts.
-- Dana (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 1999.
Found the timing of your question interesting....just had the exact same discussion with co-worker. Except we weren't necessarily limiting our discussion to CEO's etc.
We were looking at the actions of the FED, foreign investors, and the 1% wealthiest.
Point #1: The bottom line is that the broad base as David Butts mentioned above is dropping, substantially. I don't know the exact number of people invested in the market, but we all know it's considerably greater than 1929.
Point #2: Only about 20 or so major stocks make up the djia graph that's perpetuated as the indicator of the stability of the market. Particularly, tech stocks.
Let me say it again, the broad base is majorly declining, yet 20 stocks are propelling the market? What's wrong with this picture.
Point #3: Have you seen the moronic commercials for Ameritrade? Classroom full of people from all nations learning English. They appear to totally not understand this guy until he mentions Wall Street, all of a sudden they have mastered English and are TEACHING the teacher all about trading online. Give me a break.
My point? The Internet has made it possible for anyone and everyone to invest their money. And it has also made it possible to disappear in a flash (also point made by David above).
The people that have the ability to trigger the correction know exactly when they're going to pull. Those folks that can't release their addiction to their aol stocks, well...that's just what the "big- boys" are counting on.
Take a gander at a book called "The Creature from Jekyll Island" by G. Edward Griffin. IF YOU CAN FIND IT!
-- Dina (email@example.com), October 09, 1999.
addition to my response directly above...
"The people who create the problem seldom suffer the economic consequences of their actions."
- The Creature from Jekyll Island, Page 37. (This is a book about the Federal Reserve.)
-- Dina (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 1999.
I believe it was North who pointed out that he'd rather trust a company than a government to pay bonds. And that most CEO's have a vested interest (stocks) in seeing that their companies survive. So if you have LOTS of money, buying stocks and bonds isn't dumb. The only way you will lose everything in a widely based portfolio is if we have a 10+, in which case having piles of money (or gold) is going to be useless anyway. And as someone else pointed out, what are you going to do with millions/billions of dollars if you do take it out of the market? In fact, there was a recent thread from someone with just that trouble. Once you've prepped thoroughly, what do you do with extra money?
-- T the C (email@example.com), October 10, 1999.
Well we know that November 16 is a key date. Greenspan is expected to raise the interest rate one last time. This typically seems to create a turbulent week before Mr. God Almighty makes his speech, because all of his followers put their fate in his hands.
Anyone with more than one half of a brain should have a pretty good idea that it's going to go downhill from that point anyway because of Y2K anxiety regardless of what the little green man says.
So as far as timing goes, I think the big boys might do some major dumping about a week before Greenspin talks, before everyone else starts getting nervous. Though I wouldn't be suprised if these hot shots are privy to Greenscum's decision in advance, so in the slim chance that he may hold off on the rate hike, they could possibly try to ride a bit longer until negative Y2K news starts to break.
My guess would be that somewhere around the first week of November the market will begin the major downhill slide, this time with no significant recovery until the dust settles next year.
-- @ (@@@.@), October 10, 1999.