Another M-Curve: Fractal Emergency Management

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Text snipped from http://www.emergency.com/emrchaos.htm
Graphic linked from http://www.math.harvard.edu/~ctm/gallery/Mcurve.gif
It has been stated that the transitional period from peak to threshold, or onset and reaction is represented by chaos and that chaos is the transitional phase between routine and extraordinary response. In fact, chaos represents the transition from one physical state to another (Phase order transition). In this case, from an in- tact emergency management system to a fragmented system where agency communication failure and critical facility loss has occurred. Chaos is predictably unpredictable, events are not completely random and outcome is sensitive to initial conditions. Since time of intervention is unpredictable, outcomes will vary, the decision-maker becomes part of the system and chosen courses of action will change the catastrophe.



-- Critt Jarvis (critt@critt.com), October 07, 1999

Answers

If disruptions are small, localized and rare, the government will be the key decision maker. As disruptions become larger, more regional and more common, the relevant decision maker will shift away from goverment and toward the heads of households.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), October 07, 1999.

Great post, Critt (and correct follow-up by Puddintame). This is why, given government heavy-handedness and emphasis on PR rather than substance, a 5 is likely to become a 9.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 07, 1999.

or worse.

Night train

who always thought fractals were something to be diagnosed by X-ray and cured by casting

-- jes a playful ol footballer (FYIYCTAJ) (Nighttr@in.lane), October 08, 1999.


Fractals are the infinite laughing at the secularists.And we all know what'll happen when our soft shiny society reaches it's bailout.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 08, 1999.

It is also important to note that, at the phase transition, the effect of the random factors is accentuated, and they then exert a disproportionate influence on the future history of the system (thus the sensitivity to initial conditions). The other key factor that many classical mechanists overlook, is the irreversibility of time.

As Sysman says: Tick, Tock...

Godspeed,

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), October 08, 1999.



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