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CIOs Stow Cash for Y2K

http://www.cio.com/http://www.cio.com/

CIO Magazine Poll Reveals Top Executives' Y2K Plans

ORLANDO, Fl., Oct. 6 /PRNewswire/ -- A new CIO KnowPulse(SM) poll, conducted by IDG's CIO magazine, shows chief information officers (CIOs) and other business executives are planning to have significant amounts of cash handy on January 1, 2000. The majority (65%) of the 191 respondents plan to have more than $500 on hand, with 34% indicating they will have more than $1,000 and 8% indicating they will have more than $5,000. Further, 84% of respondents plan to have this amount in cash.

"CIOs are closer to the realities of Y2K than any other group of people," says Abbie Lundberg, Editor in Chief of CIO magazine. "While many of them have completed Y2K remediation for their companies and are confident of a Y2K fix, the fact that they are planning to accumulate cash shows there is still a level of doubt or concern." The poll of CIOs and other business executives was deployed October 3,1999, at a CIO Perspectives conference in Orlando, Florida. In addition to personal finance plans for Y2K, results also show overwhelming support (74%) for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to ground all air carriers that failed to respond to an FAA survey on Y2K readiness by October 5, 1999. (Last week, Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT), vice-chairman of the United States Senate's Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, proposed that these non-responsive air carriers should be grounded.)

In other Y2K news, technology and business executives are cautiously preparing for the date rollover:

-- 80% plan to document financial records;

-- 25% plan to stockpile canned goods;

-- 33% plan to stockpile water;

-- 9% plan to upgrade personal security measures;

-- 53% will not fly on a commercial airplane;

-- 27% plan to work on New Year's Eve (16% by choice, 11% by mandate).

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 06, 1999

Answers

So we Yourdonites finally got through to them??

-- the pollies are (gonna@hate.this), October 06, 1999.

you think they are really telling the truth about the $500? i find it hard to believe that is all they will have.

-- tt (cuddluppy@yahoo.com), October 06, 1999.

This really depends on the design of the survey, doesn't it? Many of these questions could have been answered positively for any New Year's weekend if the survey did not specifiy that these preparations were to be made only because of Y2K and would not have normally been undertaken. Let's look at some of the answers.

"-- 80% plan to document financial records;"

CIO's know that systems either fail or are mis-used on a regular basis. I've known a number of CIO's in my day, and not one of them didn't keep detailed records of their finances as a matter of course. It's not the sort of thing that most executives are willing to simply leave to chance (or to other people to verify for them).

"-- 25% plan to stockpile canned goods; -- 33% plan to stockpile water;"

Stockpile how much? If they are preparing for the "three-day storm" then some of those people might very well be doing that anyway. Also, stashing for a few days is a far different thing than stashing for months or years. A 3-10 day stash indicates mild concern. A 6 month statsh indicates serious worry. (I myself always have 1-2 weeks of canned goods and water around the house. I live in a semi- rural area of eastern Massachusetts where we get both blizzards and hurricanes. I've used my stash several times in my life.)

"-- 9% plan to upgrade personal security measures;"

Well, that one I can't account for. But, 17 senior execs wanting to upgrade "personal security measures" could mean that there was a very good salesman for ADT in the lobby of the conference center that morning. Probably not, but maybe.

"-- 53% will not fly on a commercial airplane;"

Big deal. How many of them would fly on New Year's Day anyway? Not many I would guess.

"-- 27% plan to work on New Year's Eve (16% by choice, 11% by mandate)"

Hmmm, so only 11% (21) of these people will be going in to work on a day when they otherwise would not. Not trivial, but not exactly overwhelming either.

As for the money, it's a long holiday weekend. CIO's and other exec's often have more expensive holidays than than average working stiff. They have families that they visit (or that are visiting them), they may be taking extra vacation days, they are often older (i.e. over- 40) people that grew up on cash and not credit/debit cards and still prefer to conduct personal business with the legal tender. 500 bucks for a long weekend is probably considered "walking around money" to a lot of these folks. For that matter, $1,000 might be. If the question was phrased "Are you planning on having $500 or more in cash cash available for New Year's wekend, and if so how much?" then the answer might easily have been "yes" for a large number of these folks over any New Year's holiday.

I'm not saying that these results are an indication that some CIO's are worried that their lives may be disrupted. I'm just saying that this level of preparation may not be at all unusual for many of these people given the circumstances of a long holiday weekend, and that a poorly worded survey (the kind often used in these "quick-hit" surveys) would not have been able to tell the difference between usual and unusual preparations.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), October 06, 1999.

Paul, at the site are the Y2K survey questions and results in full.

5.) Do you have confidence the millennium bug will be fixed by December 31, 1999?

63% Yes

30% No

7% Unsure

6.) Would you fly on a commercial airline on January 1, 2000?

44% Yes

53% No

3% Unsure

7.) How far along are you in fixing your company's Year 2000 problem?

0% Have not started

0% Have gotten started

0% Approximately 25% done

1% Approximately 50% done

35% Approximately 75% done

64% 100% done

8.) GTE, Xerox and Unisys are suing their insurance companies for the nearly $1 billion they've spent fixing the Year 2000 computer bug. Is your company planning to sue its insurance company for monies spent on Y2K remediation?*

4% Yes

69% No

11% Don't know, but should

17% Don't know, don't care

9.) Considering the potential for Y2K disruptions, are you prohibiting your information technology (IT) staff from taking vacation during the first week of January 2000?

67% Yes

23% No

10% Unsure

10.) Almost 2,000 of the nation's 3,300 air carriers have not responded to an FAA survey about Y2K readiness. The vice-chairman of the U.S. Senate's Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem says the FAA should ground carriers who do not answer the survey by October 5, 1999. Do you agree?

74% Yes

21% No

5% Unsure

11.) What changes, if any, do you plan to make with your personal finances if it becomes apparent that companies will not solve this problem by January 1, 2000?*

20% Put all money in one bank or investment vehicle that claims to have solved the Year 2000 problem

36% Deposit money in several different banks or investment vehicles to minimize the chance of encountering any Y2K problems

8% Take money out of bank or other investment vehicles and put it under a mattress/hide it in the house

35% Don't know

12.) How much money do you plan to have on hand on January 1, 2000?

1% None

5% $100 or less

30% $101 to $500

30% $501 to $1,000

26% $1,001 to $5,000

8% More than $5,000

13.) Of the currency you plan to have on hand on January 1, 2000, what type will it be?*

84% Cash

1% Traveler's checks

12% Combination of cash & traveler's checks

4% Unsure

14.) Some individuals have already made public plans to escape or minimize Year 2000 impacts on their personal lives. What personal contingency activities are you planning to engage in?

Documenting financial records - 80% Yes/9% No/1% Unsure

Stockpiling canned goods - 25% Yes/70% No/5% Unsure

Stockpiling water - 33% Yes/62% No/5% Unsure

Buying generators/wood stoves* - 10% Yes/87% No/4% Unsure

Relocating to a non urban environment - 2% Yes/97% No/1% Unsure

Upgrading personal security measures home alarm systems, fencing, firarms, etc. - 9% Yes/89% No/2% Unsure

15.) What are you planning to do on New Year's Eve, December 31, 1999? (select one)*

16% Work (by choice)

11% Work (by mandate)

37% At home (yours or loved one's)

26% Go to a party

0% Go to a self-sustainable community, farm, private home or shelter

4% Go on vacation/travel (that requires flight)

2% Go on vacation/travel (that does not require flight)

1% Place of worship

1% Other

3% Don't know

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), October 06, 1999.

Link: CIOs Stow Cash for Y2K

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 06, 1999.

(1) CIOs normally don't work holidays. They order someone else to work them.

(2) CIOs are well aware of many of the practical realities of computer system failures, including interconnectedness. That so many are preparing is not the issue. Why are there so many willing to sit there waiting for stuff to happen to them?

(3) Many of the questions were posed in the future tense (e.g., do you intend to...). If a CIO has already done his/her preparation, they may honestly answer no...

In my case, if someone asked me if I intended to move to the country, I'd say no. (I already live in a rural environment).

(4) I definitely read the 9% planning to upgrade personal security measures as at least 8% buying guns...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 06, 1999.

Mad Monk:

"(1) CIOs normally don't work holidays. They order someone else to work them."

I've known several CIO's. the good ones have generally been at work whenever their staff was, holiday or no and the bad ones "ordered someone else to do it for them." The CIO at my company will be there pulling his shifts along with everyone else.

"(2) CIOs are well aware of many of the practical realities of computer system failures, including interconnectedness. That so many are preparing is not the issue. Why are there so many willing to sit there waiting for stuff to happen to them?"

Uhhhh, because they don't believe that too much "stuff" is going to happen? Too obvious?

"(3) Many of the questions were posed in the future tense (e.g., do you intend to...). If a CIO has already done his/her preparation, they may honestly answer no...

In my case, if someone asked me if I intended to move to the country, I'd say no. (I already live in a rural environment)."

You are quite correct. Now that I have seen the survey I realize that, but I had not seen it at the time I made my original post.

"(4) I definitely read the 9% planning to upgrade personal security measures as at least 8% buying guns..."

Read it however you want. It doesn't say, and "personal security" covers a wide array of options, only some of which are lethal and most of which do not involve waiting periods or licenses, so guns may or may not be in the plans of any of them.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), October 07, 1999.

Old Git, thanks for the info. I was about to go to the CIO site when I found your post.

Now, let's look at some of the questions and answers.

"5.) Do you have confidence the millennium bug will be fixed by December 31, 1999? "

"Fixed" is a loose term, even though it shouldn't be. There are a lot of IT execs who would consider things "fixed" if their systems worked only barely well enough to keep the business from collapsing. However, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, and assume that the 63% who answered in the positive genuinely expect that things will be at or near a normal state.

"6.) Would you fly on a commercial airline on January 1, 2000?"

This one is an example of my point. I might answer "no" to this question simply because I know that I plan to be at home on January 1, 2000 and would not be flying anyway, Y2K or not.

"7.) How far along are you in fixing your company's Year 2000 problem?"

As has been pointed out many times here by polly and doomer alike, these "percentage complete" measurements are almost totally meaningless. I wish people would quit asking them.

"8.) GTE, Xerox and Unisys are suing their insurance companies for the nearly $1 billion they've spent fixing the Year 2000 computer bug. Is your company planning to sue its insurance company for monies spent on Y2K remediation?"

I'm only going to say one thing about this, and I say it as someone who comes from a family with a lot of lawyers in it whom I both love and respect: There are simply too damn many lawyers in the world with too much free time on their hands out trying to get some people to sue other people over issues that have no place in a court of law to begin with, and I beleive that this is a perfect example of that.

"9.) Considering the potential for Y2K disruptions, are you prohibiting your information technology (IT) staff from taking vacation during the first week of January 2000?"

Don't get me started on this one. Knee jerk reactions, intended to look good rather than perform a useful function, people scared of hype and not focusing on reality, ...

See? Don't get me going on this one.

"10.) Almost 2,000 of the nation's 3,300 air carriers have not responded to an FAA survey about Y2K readiness. The vice-chairman of the U.S. Senate's Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem says the FAA should ground carriers who do not answer the survey by October 5, 1999. Do you agree? "

I agree on this one, polly though I am. Hey, if the rules say you report then you report or you get shut down.

"11.) What changes, if any, do you plan to make with your personal finances if it becomes apparent that companies will not solve this problem by January 1, 2000?* "

I think the key phrase here is "if it becomes apparent." Unless and until it does, we don't know how many of these folks are or are not doing any of these things "just in case."

"12.) How much money do you plan to have on hand on January 1, 2000?"

Again, an example of my point. the way this question is phrased leaves room for an answer that has nothing to do with Y2K. Some of these cats may be planning on having $5,000 in cash on hand January 1, 200 because their bookies only take cash for bets on the college bowl games.

"13.) Of the currency you plan to have on hand on January 1, 2000, what type will it be?*"

What do you want to be that the 13% with cash and/or traveler's checks are part of the one saying that tey are or would fly on 1/1/2000" Can you say vacation?

As for the rest keeping cash, well, duh! The question simply asks about the money you plan to have on hand. I personally plan on having all mine in cash simply because I always use cash for my walking around money. Gold and silver ingots are a real pain to carry around in your wallet and the stores get fussy as hell about making change from them.

"14.) Some individuals have already made public plans to escape or minimize Year 2000 impacts on their personal lives. What personal contingency activities are you planning to engage in?"

This question should have added the words "that you would not otherwise have engaged in" at the end. As it is worded, some might have answered "yes" to things like stockpiling food or water even if the did these things on a regualr basis and simply consider Y2K to be another possible "three-day storm." "15.) What are you planning to do on New Year's Eve, December 31, 1999? (select one)*"

So far as I see, only the 11% going to work against their will surprise me. As for those who are going to work voluntarily, I bet that percentage is about the same for this year as for other New Year's. As for the others, noone of those activities is at all unusual for a typical New Year's Day.

The upshot of this is, the survey gives some clue that CIO's and other senior IT execs are taking Y2K seriously, but for Gary North (or anyone else) to trumpet about "IT execs stockpiling cash" is a pretty signifcant stretch.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), October 07, 1999.