In a previous thread, the 17 hour warning system was discussed. Remember one thing folks, the rollover will be going through the least prepared countries in the world BEFORE it get's here. We WILL be watching countries going dark, plants exploding, phone systems going down, riots breaking out, ect. ect. ect. Yep, end to end coverage on the allmighty TUBE. And the sheeple response will be what?????????????????????? YOU TELL ME!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), October 06, 1999

Answers

The sheeple will be going out for a beer saying you see this y2k thing is no such big deal! We are doomed! Buy Gold! The sheeple will be buying their beer with platinum, but the joke be on them because Mastercard will not accept aluminum as an acceptable form of payment, all the while this be broadcast on national tv to third world countries with no electricity due to 'computer glitches'. You tell me how the sheeple will react to all of this with only a 16 hour warning. The sheeple believe the polly and now the sheeple be in a truck load full of trouble. These sheeple make me so mad.

-- @@ (@@@.@@@), October 06, 1999.

It's not too late to relocate and eat gold. Act now! Move out of the big cities. He only cares

-- day@by.day (day@by.day), October 06, 1999.

And this is only October 6. I wonder how bad it will be in December.

-- lemmy (Motorhead@rocks.on), October 06, 1999.

As only a recent GI myself, I have to wonder (even given the above scenario) if the general reaction won't be, "oh yeah, didn't (bennett, koskinen, yadda-yadda) say that we're okay but other countries will have trouble-- see they were right." Right up until the lights go out.

Not predicting this is the case, just wondering if it might be...

-- winter wondering (winterwondring@yahoo.com), October 06, 1999.

Bahhhh Humbug!!

Do you guys really expect the press to cover the problems if they happen in other countries?

If there are catastophic failures everywhere in the world like plants exploding you will NOT see it in the media as this would spark a riot here. I guarantie that there will be a press blackout until after the rollover. The reasons for that should be clear, if TSHTF it would not mater anymore but if it will be only a bump in the road then riots and bankruns will be prevented and the Gov. will stand before the sheeple as heros saying "hey we told you so nothing to worry about".

-- justme (justme@justme.net), October 06, 1999.

justme, you are right. The media has colluded with .gov .system "in our best interests" and has explicitly promised not to show/tell/publish/leak any real-life problems. Old Git may have the right idea re scanners, locally. Ham radio network necessary for the big picture. We don't have any of these very useful tools but will trust our imagination ;^)

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 06, 1999.

The press WILL COVER it. However, you will only see what is happening within 200 ft of the cameraman/Peter Jennings. All you might see is it turn dark. People will be dancing in the streets of NYC waiting for the ball to fall. Most will have no concept of y2k or care.........unless something really catastophic hits before then. However, on the other hand there are lots of people who are now preparing for that 3 day storm. I am seeing/hearing conversations in the stores, both from customers and clerks. One store clerk in Big Lots (actually the mgr) told me she and her husband take their paychecks to the bank and get half back in cash and are stashing some away every week. That is smart, but on the other hand they are still up to their necks in the stock mkt. I just don't know how you can believe in y2k and still have a viable stock mkt. But it started a conversation in the check out line that was still going on when I left the store. So more and more people are becoming aware. At least on a 3 day storm level.

Where you are going to be is dependent on where you have been!!!! Think about it and get as much of "been" under your belt as you can in the time remaining.

Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 06, 1999.

There may be a black out but the word will get out via the HAM radio network. Our ears will not be blacked out. A local radio station has agreed to monitor the HAm's receptions here in my part of the world, South West Oregon, and report what is going on in the world. I will bet this will be a very popular radio station to listen to, 17 hours before the East Coast see's the change over.

-- hammer (Ham@radio.com), October 06, 1999.

For the sake of argument let's say that the mainstream media does cover it. The first event will come at approximately 7:00am est and 4:00am pst. If the events are true failures of infrastructure and it is reported as such, then we in the "most well prepared nation" could possibly see the beginnings of panic, sheeple running to markets and buying up more than beer and chips, lines at atm's, lines at gas stations, etc.

On the other hand, if it is only reported on the www, only a few of us who live here part time will know what's going on. We will be able to take advantage of this small window of opportunity. This is my last contingency plan (I live in the outskirts of the greater Los Angeles area) befor my family and I bolt to a small town in Colorado where my mom lives. Oh, it's a 12 hour drive.

Regards...

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 06, 1999.

I disgree with the premise.

The problem with this '17 hour advance warning system' is that it focuses on the rollover moment itself. While some failures may occur at that precise moment and few of those might be visible, Y2K is the sum of its parts.

The fact that many of the 'problematic' dates have passed without major incident is quite encouraging. Yes, some failures will occur at the rollover moment. Other errors will take longer to manifest. The long and the short of this is that our own focus will be on the first 3-4 months following rollover. I do not expect widespread catastrophic events at the rollover moment itself. Thus, I see the 17 hour thing as a distraction and a red herring.

Short of market meltdown, act of massive violence, or other highly serious event that gets mass media coverage, I expect to be enjoying New Years eve with friends and family.

From our perspective, it is the weeks that follow the rollover that will be most 'interesting'. This is where the 'interconnectedness' cards will be played out. If no major infrastructure disruption have occured by the March-April time frame, I will then breathe a sigh of relief. But just because the planet did not evaporate at rollover does not mean the 'all clear' can be sounded.

Could I be wrong about the rollover itself? Of course I could. So don't bet the safety of your family on my opinion. I expect to be enjoying New Years with friends an family, but I have hedged my bets by being prepared for alternate outcomes.

For us, Y2K has been more about making the interconnections and technological dependencies of our lives more fault tolerant. This approach, we believe, will serve us well for the remainder of our lives. There are many dangers in the world today that can be easily addressed by being prepared to help ourselves in the event we are temporarily cutoff from normal services.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), October 06, 1999.

Ham what is that station? I'm in the Portland, OR area and have a shortwave. Any other local stations in our area you can suggest. E- 0mail is real please reply.

I'm sure many of you have some pretty hefty e-mail groups. I doubt if all of us will be able to monitor the web due to traffic somehow need to set up a deal so whoever gets on can forward important info via e- mail.

Anybody who's got an idea on how to execute this please publish particulars. Through my little base I can contact directly and indirectly several hundred.

Leska, I'm counting on you-

EC

-- EC (JHnck1776@aol.com), October 06, 1999.

Uncle Bob - Bolting at the last minute (based on PERHAPS hearing about overseas meltdown) seems pretty risky. We've seen plenty of delays in news coming out about "glitches" as it is. And there is that handy new "communication center" so news can be "managed" to avoid confusion.

You are assuming (1)you get the news nearly instantaneously (2) only a few other people in Los Angeles also get the news (remember Drudge is in LA, and he has crossed over to TV, so anything he knows, everyone will likely know PDQ (3) traffic on New Year's Eve day is no problem - not extra heavy due to holiday flyers staying earthbound or other people heading out of town.. just in case. (4)free travel on the roadways is still *allowed*, and not "managed" in some way.

Perhaps it would be a whole lot safer to risk an unneeded 12 hour trip and get there a day or 3 early. Have a nice visit with Mom. And then wait - in your bugout location - to see if it is safe to come home... not the other way around.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), October 06, 1999.

EC -- aaccckkk! nothing like pressure ;^)

OK, starting today we'll put together some Ham links with NET & CERT and those folks in your area. This may take a while. In the meantime the nearest fire station is a good starting point to find Hams -- EC you are blessed with excellent connections in a little city near you. FEMA cards help with neighborhood runs and info as to what's going down.

Unfortunately wheez po folk and don't have generator back-up etc for eMail, and may be spending Rollover in a place too distant for CERT/NET connection.

Like so much else, don't know yet, but Time Will Tell. Yep, we're prepared for hell, but in hibernation! The people connection part is the real difficulty.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 06, 1999.

Linda...

I agree with everything you said. Believe me, this is my worst-case- scenario contengency plan. If we have to leave (and I am hoping not) we will leave behind 2 years worth of preps with the exception of what we can carry in 1 car and 1 truck. However, it would be foolish of me not to at least have this worst case plan.

Fingers crossed in SoCal...

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 06, 1999.

The "rolling disaster" scenario depends on every time zone running independently. But all over the world, telcoms and utilities often use GMT for timing functions. That means we are at high risk of going under as GMT hits midnight (at 4:00 PM PST, here) and could lose all outside comm at that point.

That means we'll have 12 hours to watch as problems roll over NZ and the far east, for those systems that are NOT on GMT, and then everything that IS GMT goes under when GMT hit midnight, followed by those things that are NOT on GMT and are between Greenwich and Hawaii.

All that applies to only those devices that actually have problems, mind you, and it's entirely possible that electric power will stay up, telcoms will stay up, etc. Further, this applies only to embeddeds and realtime systems that care about that kind of thing.

The real problem might come days later, as date-driven batch processes fail. If we stay up 1/1/2000, we'll see all kinds of crowing headlines, yet we could still be in the dark a month later as coal shippers fail to provision the power plants. Watch what happens when the massive grocery chains suddenly can't ship food. The big errors could take days or weeks to develop, as geeks struggle to patch big systems, as managers try to cover up the aborts.

This is not a hold-your-breath-for-6-hours situation - this is a long term risk that may take some time to build to a crescendo.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), October 06, 1999.

Exactly BW,

I don't think you folks in the USA are gonna learn much from watching little New Zealand on Jan 1st

-- matt (matt@somewhere.nz), October 06, 1999.

By using a police scanner,you can program it to pick up the Ham operators! A handheld,battery(solar rechargeable)unit would be a good investment.Also, CB's will come in handy for when you need to travel to get out of town,you could keep in contact with your folks on the other end while driving and keep abreast of the road conditions by listening to the truckers.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 06, 1999.

Lots of good suggestions here. Also, a shortwave may be a good option. You'll be able to pick up BBC, Franklin Frith and Patriot radio to find out what's really going down.I'm getting one this week.

-- ActionBill (actionbil@aol.com), October 06, 1999.

Uncle Bob, how about trucking over half those preps to your mother's place now? Then spend rollover there. If things are terrible, you have them.

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), October 06, 1999.