I just won a bet begun 6 months ago that WTI would touch 25 per barrel before the end of the year. I had specifically bet that it would indeed touch it before the end of November. Pretty happy with that one.

Now I wanna know what my oil patch buddies see for the end of the year as far as the top for products and crude. I'm still thinking today was a breather and that once the heat gets going and breaches some technicals along with crude re-stocking (which judging from freights is only occuring in the far east as of now) will pull WTI front month all the way to $26 per bbl. Brent should crest $25.

I'll post tommorrow on the heat and gas, but am curious about others (in the industry or somewhat knowledgeable only please) views on ending prices.

Heard about more pipeline problems today. There have been quite a few here lately as the companies roll out their "new and improved Y2K software" and computers. But you pollies out there keep right on doubting it, I wouldn't want you to give up your date with destiny (as you've pre-defined it).

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), October 04, 1999

Answers

Spot crude, December 30 - $30. January 10, $40.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 05, 1999.

Gordon,

As a former trader and broker who focuses on Technical chart analysis for gauging market priceing, I can tell you that the market looks rather toppy in the short run for Crude, Heating Oil and Unleaded gasoline. I see a third retracement for Crude and HO as more likely than not. I think it will likely be a consolidation of a half year's runup in price. Unleaded Gas hasn't shown a confirmation for short term sell in the market, but the oscillators are showing downward trend.

Crude oil basis Dec 99... support strong at just under $21.00 bbl. I suspect that the $30.00 level would be tops for Crude Oil on the short term, and it's possible that this level could be reached. I suspect though, that $30 is doable by 1/1/2000. Heating oil appears about the same. Both markets are getting rather frothy around the top.

Whatcha know about the pipelines. Fill us in.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 05, 1999.

Add $10 Mad Monk, and you're right on.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 05, 1999.

Gekko,

Damn-------- lets see--last year $10bbl.--huh!!!

Oil companies laying off-going out--HUGE mergers!! All of a sudden out of nowhere in 8 months----POW!!! $25bbl. where is the press on this one? Where is the public outrage? Just wait until all those old inventories are used up--then the public will poop their panties.

But hey--NO SIGNS of inflation----rotflmao!!!!!! and now Gold!!

You would think those quick studies in the stock market would start to feel the K-Y being applied by now!!

I would not be surprised to see $45bbl. by Christmas-- I mean c'mon this all happened thru the Summer. Its not even cold yet.

shaking my head in disbelief.

By the way---Always look forward to your posts!! keep em coming

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), October 05, 1999.

Yeah, I may be wrong on this one, but I could give a shit. I think heating oil is gonna fly like an eagle (gold pun intended). I have voiced this opinion several times and many of my collegues now think I'm a fruitcake, what with inventories building on distillate every week. But I'm gonna stick to my guns. My feeling is that JQ along with utilities is going to more than offset the glut of jet fuel likely to be around at year end and heat will break those Gulf War resistance points.

I'm gonna say it again, crude is only taking a breather here. A brief pause before one more strong run up. This one will put us through the key resistance on crude also.

As to my earlier comments on pipelines. I have now heard from no less than four major pipeline systems of major computer driven problems resulting in some real pains for shippers and the owners of the lines as well. They have not be geocentric, two on the west coast, one on the east and one in Padd two. The stories, first hand info, are pretty similar. They installed their new handy dandy Y2K compliant system and it didn't work. yikes. PS these are not small local lines, but big ass, carrying a lot of freaking bbls to every place on earth kinda pipelines.

PS-looked at A basin crudes going east this past week and noted that the imports are up 50%. Projections show Asia picking up a million bbls. a day going into the last quarter. Hmmm....got crude?

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), October 05, 1999.