http://www.computerworld.com/home/print.nsf/all/991004C45A

Y2K problem solved; nothing left to do but panic

By William Ulrich 10/04/99

The U.S. has solved the year 2000 problem. I learned this during a series of Washington roundtable sessions where public relations directors and government representatives spun their version of Y2K for the media. The message was clear. Y2K has been fully eradicated from the financial, power, food and other key industry sectors. These roundtables were part of a public relations directors campaign that has made people sanguine about Y2K, a campaign that could lead people to overreact when minor problems do arise.

Mike Griffin, president of State Savings Bank in New Jersey, said banks would have very few year 2000 problems. He did say there could be a "little bank" somewhere that has a problem with a system, where a customer has a Visa or MasterCard that doesn't work. I found this comment odd. Credit systems are most vulnerable to Y2K failures when checking card expiration dates before the century rollover. Once rollover occurs, the system should work fine, because expiration dates and current dates fall within the same century. Why would he single this out to be our only banking problem?

A better question is: Why does he believe large, multinational banks with millions of lines of code, tens of thousands of desktop systems, thousands of date-laden data interfaces and large foreign investments won't experience any Y2K failures? Stating that a credit system is open to rollover failures but that giant institutions with millions of date-related exposure points will have no noticeable problems is beyond logic.

Other industries echoed similar sentiments: There will be no problems -- just the potential for panic. Industry representatives said panic could result in the hoarding of cash, food and medicine. But the latest USA Today/CNN poll suggests people no longer consider Y2K a major threat. Those people who do care are likely to have taken precautions already.

One reporter, however, offered a second and more compelling panic scenario. Citizens and small businesses are assuming key industries will have no noticeable problems in 2000, based on assurances from industry leaders. But when inevitable problems arise, no one will believe those assurances, and panic will ensue. One international consultant thinks the U.S., while more technically prepared for Y2K, is unprepared psychologically for problems that might arise. Even minor inconveniences could surprise people and spawn media-fed, Internet-fueled post-2000 panic.

With panic a definite possibility, I believe government and industry leaders should notify people to expect failures and inconveniences.

If nothing happens, as they say, no harm is done. If there are problems, people would be prepared and post-2000 panic might be avoided. When I suggested this to the panel of industry leaders, they had no immediate response.

It seems that private industries and the federal government, in responding to dire predictions of Y2K failures, have backed themselves into a position that is counter to their overall goal of avoiding panic. It isn't too late to offer a balanced view to the public, but they better begin soon.

William Ulrich is president of Tactical Strategy Group Inc. and co-founder of Triaxsys Research LLP. Contact him at tsginc@cruzio.com.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 04, 1999

Answers

For the last two years we've assumed the panic is a given. People don't prepare until the last minute, and the heavy Y2k denial made panic inevitable. Years of living in hurricane country made the scenario easy to see.

We tell people that they never go to the Post Office on April 15th, they don't go there the week before Xmas, and for exactly the same reason they shouldn't plan on grocery shopping in December 1999.

People often respond "Oh, I'm not worried about Y2k", and we tell them it doesn't MATTER how THEY feel, because they are living in a society where nearly all their neighbors WILL be scared. And the neighbors' fear will affect all of us.

Y2k is a pipeline problem. Once the flow is maxed out, calmness becomes more important. But right now, and for an unpredictable timespan, the pipeline is NOT maxed out, so we still have time to prep, to pump more food through the pipe and into our pantries.

It's too late for government leadership, it's too late to plant more crops, it's too late to ramp up food-processing factories, it's too late to expand warehouse stocks. All those missed chances, two years worth of golden opportunities, all gone now.

But it's not yet too late to add trucks to the grocery-delivery schedules, it's not too late to hire more drivers, it's not to late for groceries to order more, it's not too late to buy more food.

88 days and change. If you're not done, get moving.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), October 04, 1999.

Thanks for the continued inspiration bw!

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 04, 1999.

"The US has solved the year 2000 problem." Did I miss something? What I've seen is that the government, industry, and everybody else is still working on it... If it were solved, would so many of us working on New Year's Eve? Would electric companies be buying $15,000 worth of food? Would air lines be cancelling their year end schedule?

Yea, some entities are going to be complete...with their portions! Not everybody...not hardly.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 05, 1999.