The myth of Localized Failures.

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Here is one of those wierd statements that I can't make sense of no matter how hard I try.

The power grid is supposed to hold except for an indeterminate number of "localized" failures.

How many "localized" failures does it take to cause problems to an interconnected society?

To take it out of grid speak lets pretend we are talking about a tornado. Say the whole country is subject to tornados (not just the midwest) that can occur in freezing temps. We know tornado season is coming and its gonna be a doozy and its going to happen in the dead of winter. We know the entire country will not be hit by one GIANT twister which simultaneously sucks up trees, cows and houses all over the country. We can predict however, that there will be lots of devastating twisters. We just don't know where they will touch down or for how long.

Well doesn't that mean that EVERYONE should prepare? Doesn't that mean EVERYONE should expect that the worst could happen in their own back yard? Even if there are only ten tornadoes doesn't that really effect the whole country?

At home exercise:

Pin a map of the USA on the wall. Take 10 darts. Throw randomly. Are those places you hit expendable? What is the population? How much food is produced there? Won't you and people you love or depend on financially be affected? Isn't that going to affect everyone?

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), October 03, 1999

Answers

I am still very confused as to what "Local" means. Do they mean cities? counties? states? or regions? Somewhere in the foggy recesses of my mind I recall Bennett's definition of local as being as much as a three state area. Does anyone have a more specific definition of Local?

Bill in South Carolina

-- Bill Solorzano (notaclue@webtv.net), October 03, 1999.


Hi Bill, Have not seen you around much. Que pasa?

The word 'local' as used by the likes of koskinen is meaningless. It is meant to convey the notion of small, insignificant and non- pervasive problem. It is not meant to be 'defined' in precise terms but is intentionally left for people to think of it as insignificant. He is conjuring up an image. In other words, it is something you ought not worry your little head about., it's just 'local'. Using the word 'local' is like using the idea of 'moisure related damages' in respect to a potential tsunami. Ludicrous at best, criminal at worst.

But, consider what a 'local' outage would mean in Manhattan. Consider what hundreds or thousands of 'local' outages might mean. Koskinen is a skilled proagandist. Ultimately, he will go down, historically, in the caliber of Joseph Goebbels.

I just hope I can participate in the Tribunals.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), October 03, 1999.


Don't worry. Local only means where people live.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 03, 1999.

Mara Wayne wrote:

"Don't worry. Local only means where people live."

No, Mara, local only means where other people live. No one believes, when they hear talk of local disruptions, that it's gonna be their neighborhood, their town or county.

-- Kurt Ayau (Ayau@iwinet.com), October 03, 1999.


Hola Pablo, que tal?

I suppose you are correct about the double talk. "Local" outages is right up there with "Vertical" outages as opposed to horizontal ones. Perhaps a "horizontal" problem is one where the population is left in a horizontal position. Like in dead.

Y'all vaya con Dios now. Bill in South Carolina

-- Bill Solorzano (notaclue@webtv.net), October 03, 1999.



I am reminded of a statement Bennett (a.k.a. "Paul Revere") made during an interview about the Senate report:

"We're saying that with this report, the Y2K problems will not be spread across the nation. They will occur across the street. That is, there will be individual problems that will arise. The sheer magnitude makes that absolutely inevitable."

Does this make you feel any better? Many network connections will be temporarily disconnected, so instead of having one huge national failure, we'll have a million smaller failures. What's the diff?

Bennett

-- @ (@@@.@), October 03, 1999.


Kurt,

It is funny how they try to give the impression that it will happen to someone else.

Bennett says "They will occur across the street."

Who lives on the other side of the street? Surely it won't be us!

-- @ (@@@.@), October 03, 1999.


"We are suggesting that there is some exposure to risks simply because we do not have the information that we need to make intelligent assessments elsewhere. The data quality does not mean there's going to be a failure. It simply means that the data we have available to us on which to make our assessments has been either better than average or worse than average."

OK, can anyone make sense of this paragraph at all? Is he saying that the only reason he is perceiving a risk is because the data shows there will be some risk? Or is he saying that he doesn't trust his data? Is he saying he can't make intelligent assessments of the problem because he doesn't like what the data is telling him?

And what the heck is a "horizontal failure"?

I'm relieved we won't be having any. I was under the assumption that getting horizontal was one of the few Y2k compliant acts left to us. Although if men start having "vertical failures" then that could be a serious problem for morale.

Seriously though, this guy sounds like somebody who hasn't been sleeping much at night.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), October 03, 1999.


To a politician interested in hiding any details of their true thoughts, the word "local" has about as much meaning as the word "soon". As in "soon, the politocos and NWO will get their comeuppance."

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 03, 1999.

Bennet squawked "We're saying that with this report, the Y2K problems will not be spread across the nation. They will occur across the street."

Since across my street (about twenty-five or so feet away and ten feet down, actually) is a large bay, I guess I'm screwed. [lol]

Has anyone noticed how erratic power has been so far? In my area, the power sucks. It's brownout-prone, goes down for minutes to days for no apparent reason, and makes my UPS squeal in alarm on a rather frequent basis. And this is in the last six months. All those AC units all over the US are going to demand feeding when summer of 2000 rolls around...

-- OddOne (mocklamer_1999@yahoo.com), October 04, 1999.



"Has anyone noticed how erratic power has been so far? In my area, the power sucks. It's brownout-prone, goes down for minutes to days for no apparent reason,..."



) 1997 Hamsterdance.com





-- @ (@@@.@), October 04, 1999.

"I use to have a big bushy tail, but some redneck with a .22 shot it off!!"

-- @ (@@@.@), October 04, 1999.

If you think I'm gonna click on that damnable hampsterdance link and get that stupid music in my head again you've got another thing coming!It's a TRUE EVIL MEME!!!

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 04, 1999.

Hey Zoobie!! I happen to like that music! It makes you forget all of your worries, forget all your cares, very therapeutic.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 04, 1999.

hours later the thrill wears off and the music continues

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 08, 1999.


As for the "across the street" statement...

I hope no one reading this has an office or residence uacross the street from the New York Stock Exchange, a nuclear/conventional power plant, a pipeline...

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), October 08, 1999.


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