If this was posted earlier, I apologize in advance...

http://www.russkelly.com/

Russ Kelly's list of 20 Most Likely Events in 2000

1. Reduced air travel early in the year 2. Few elective surgeries early in the year 3. Telecommunication problems and satellite failures because of Cycle 23 Solar Max 4. Frequent electric power "brownouts" and at least one prolonged power outage of 2 to 5 days 5. Scattered water supply contamination and interrupted service 6. Scattered waste treatment failures and harmful spillage 7. 911 system failures and reduced capacity/services 8. Traffic control system failures in larger cities 9. Gas price increases & rationing 10. A major transportation calamity (air, shipping, or rail) 11. Major layoffs and business failures in travel and tourism industry Las Vegas, Miami, coastal Carolinas, Colorado esp. hard hit 12. An emergency banking holidays due to unfounded public fears But U.S. banks and money supply is safe 13. Temporary closing of assembly lines and manufacturing plants due to raw material delays 14. Nationalization of key segments of transportation industry 15. Reduced work week and smaller paychecks 16. Major aggravations during first few weeks of 2000. Access denied to offices Elevators that dont work (inter-connectivity with security & fire systems that fail) Non-functioning ATMs Lines for gas and food Computer networks that fail Internet access denied Telephone, fax, and Email interruptions Lost records 17. Y2K rage and shocking rise in aberrant behavior 18. Plummeting salesshocking in scope during first quarter Reduced exports Eroded consumer confidence Less consumer income Use up "just in case" inventories 19. Strong economic rebound in U.S. in second half of year Reduced imports Pent up demand 20. Lots of lawsuits

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 03, 1999

Answers

Well, that pretty much describes my best case scenerio. I sure hope that's all that happens.

Why are we in this handbasket and where are we going.

-- LM (latemarch@usa.net), October 03, 1999.

That sounds good to me! I'll sign up for it.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 03, 1999.

As not being the eternal "Milne" here, yet not the total optimist, I can agree with some of his theories.
However, reality tells me it will be litle worse due to the political situation....
1. Martial law in select communities. 2. 20 Major bank failures. 3. 20% bankruptcy rate due to medium scale business having insufficient raw material supplies. 4. 15-18% unemployment rates by the 3rd qtr. 5. Communist consolidation in Asia causing further economic disruptions. 6. As a result of 5., the stock markets worldwide collapsing a full 30-40%. 7. Latin America imploding, taking Chase or another money center bank with them. 8. Oil disruptions creating hyperinflation in the 3rd World; we survive only because our production contionues. 9. Russia reverts to full Communism; acquires the Baltics and other "rogue" states. 10. North Africa and the Middle East becomes a Pan-Arab alliance, minus the Saudis. Creating a new "Islamic" balance of power. The U.S. due to disorganization and panic withdraws from the region.....
There's my SWAG....deal with it.
John

-- John Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), October 03, 1999.

Good post, Uncle Bob. Thanks. I think I will copy this one and send it out to some folks (some of whom think I am a trifle unhinged about the whole thing). Not sure why Colorado will be so hard hit tho-- unless it has to do with reduced winter tourism. Speaking as a native, they have a high class, well educated work force, a diversified economy, and have rebounded from the oil shale/penny stock/recession mess in the '80s.

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), October 03, 1999.

A lot of those things have happened,and could be expected to happen, in any given year from 1945 to 1999.

-- mr x (x@x.x), October 03, 1999.

scattered sewage outages sounds like a wonderful scenerio. The numbers quoted in the senate 100 day report leaves me with less optimism. When water services have problems, and for how long? Where are the drinking supplies? Since sewage isnt looking good, rivers will be recieving more raw sewage, and so will not be safe to drink without high risk of dysentary (death-in a waterless situation). Hartford Ct was on that Navy list, and on the revised list, was listed as a town and with U or unknown as to it's status. I went to see the state head emergency man and he couldn't say anything about the status of the MDC water company. He wouldnt offer even the slightest assurance on it working. Even after the navy report came out, there was no response at all saying they were ok. They are FOF mode, Fix on failure.

I insisted that they let people know about the need to put aside some water and to specify how many gallons they reccomend. When the hurricane was headed to Hartford a couple weeks ago, the governor made a point of saying to prepare by having water on hand. He didnt mention batteries or anything else.

Unless an effort is made to get people to really do it, no one will and this is the real threat to city stability. Thirsty people go nuts fast. It is easy and free to save milk gallon containers and clean and fill them at the right time. Even the poorest people can save thier milk cartons.

One of the worst parts of the coming problems is going to be hearing about people being in waterless communities around the world.

Nice of this thread maker to mention "oil and gas rationing and price increases" nice short sentence that completely leaves out any mention of how that affects peoples lives. All over the globe people hang on by a thread. Gas becomes unavailable in countries that dont have a month of national reserves, and arent on the first to be reconnected list, are going to really risk starvation and freezing to death and lack of water.

Sure, lets hope the financial guys dont wreck the whole show, but this is a disaster in the making for hundreds of millions and that is not guesswork, it is a fact.

-- bill burke (bburke@rocetmail.com), October 03, 1999.

Bill Burke,

I coudn't agree with you more.Pamela O'Reily(sp?),formally with the Cassandra group,suggested people winterize their barns,sheds,etc.I believe she was saying that there would be alot of people in need for shelter because of Y2k.That's just my thoughts.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 03, 1999.

I would fully agree with Mr.X, but I think Russ was talking about the Year 2000.

Tommy

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), October 03, 1999.