Have looked in the archives, but haven't seen anything quite like what I am pondering tonight...

The scenario... The clock strikes, the lights go out, and we begin the New Year. The gov't, as usual, is behind in the game and is not prepared to take care of those people it told "don't worry, be happy". As daylight approaches, homes are getting uncomfortably cool, and there have been no sightings of "officials" to tell the sheep what to do. A (local) leadership vacuum is developing... (the national leadership has been bye bye for a long time).

Possibilities that affect our little scenario... All of the sheep believed the spin, and their cupboards are bare as Mother Hubbard's. Or some of the sheep did GI and did something about it. Maybe many of the sheep were rams in disguise, but didn't want to tip their hand - most who GI realize the downside of publicity.

Where Im coming from... As an active member of our Neighborhood Association, I have tried in vain to spread the word, without tipping my hand. In a nutshell, my nudges towards preparation would appear to have fallen on deaf ears, as I know of no one else in the neighborhood who GI. Even my spouse DGI, although she has been very tolerant of my preps (maybe she is only DGI on the outside, and is too terrified to admit to herself what she really feels).

As the days count down, my thoughts turn to community type preps for that day when *everyone* will finally see the light, or darkness as it were. Most of the discussion Ive seen so far is directed towards organizing beforehand. Great if you can make it happen. The reality is that complacency rules, and for most, 1/1/00 will be "just another day". Any suggestions on how to prepare for this void after the fact?

As I see it, even though Ive prepped, how the rest of society handles this event is still a big player in "my" final outcome. For my situation, flight is not an alternative, so fight is my only option. Although the rest of the neighborhood would appear to be DGI, I still think it will have to pull together to get through this. So I see this work as another one of my preps - doing what I can to set some direction after everyone realizes Houston, we have a problem...

I am trying to think of things I can do to prepare for neighborhood organization efforts that might be possible after TSHTF. An example would be to print a supply of the some of handouts from www.justpeace.org (such as for water purification) or others dealing with disaster survival (simple solar ovens, heating tips and cautions, etc.) Maybe I should devote some thought to ways to secure the neighborhood... Access to our area can basically be controlled at two points, and I have access to our computer database of resident information from our annual census. Maybe I should draw up plans to organize guards at the entrances, and pre-print access cards for everyone in the neighborhood?

Of course, arriving on the scene so prepared could be the ultimate in showing your cards, and a decision to do so will have to be balanced against the risks of such exposure and the climate at the time. But even if such plans are prepared, a decision to remain low can still be made at that time. However, should an opportunity arise that such preps would be of value, now is the time to make them.

Am I getting way off base here? Has anyone else thought about this type of post-event planning?

Thanks!

e.m.

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 01, 1999

Answers

There are many of us that are thinking like you. Could I ask you to post your comments over on Ed Yourdon's Humpty Dumpty forum? This forum is ABOUT WHAT COMES NEXT AFTER JAN 1. If you have not visited this forum, please read the articles in the archives. You will not only find them interesting, but may also find a ray of hope. You will also find discussion here rather than arguments. And you will find a great deal of intelligence. Sorry I can't link it.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=HumptyDumptyY2K

Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 01, 1999.

Taz - appreciate the suggestion. I've placed a copy on the HDY2K forum. I took a look at some of the threads, looks promising - thanks for the heads up.

e.m.

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 01, 1999.

Preparation for this scenario might involve getting 400# of rice from Sam's, around $100. Could feed a number of people for a week (adjust quantities as necessary) Require work from the neighbors in exchange for food -- neighborhood patrols/guard duty, waste disposal, etc.

Mikey2

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), October 02, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr near Monterey, California

Eyell Makedo: Thanks for asking this question. It is, I believe, one of the most important issues we can consider. It also happens to be the major part of my first post to this forum, on June 11th, in a thread which explored what we will do if things get really bad. I believe that this, actually, is the appropriate place to discuss this question since it relates to actually making it through to the other side. Humpty Dumpty would be where to discuss how what we do to get through the crisis may set precedents for social relationships in the next culture.

I recently went and got certified as part of the local Neighborhood Emergency Response Team [NERT] program (six four-hour sessions). If you have something like that near you, you may wish to do the same. Many of your preparations could seem to have stemmed from your involvement in that program.

My son and I are planning on systematically covering every home in the neighborhood going door to door to give a few easy tips about general preparedness. We will make frequent use of the buzz phrase "natural and man-made disasters." I think we may do this in official looking orange & yellow reflective vests (which I obtained from my NERT program). I will also carry the manual that we used in the course, to help in making the project seem more as if it had originated from the city. I did discuss this plan with the leaders of the NERT program, and they thought that it sounded great.

I'm thinking that my son's involvement could also help to break down some resistance. While an adult might be hard pressed to show someone how to inspect their utilities and turn them off, a child could suck people in while they indulge the child while also wanting to see how good of a job he will do at "instructing them." I can easily arrange things so that he would be doing this as a homeschooling or 4H project, without any truth stretching.

As part of this door-to-door visit, we would seek to sign up as many people as possible to be informed about future free NERT training courses. This is something that those of us who were in the training were encouraged to do. If we got enough people involved, the Fire Department would probably come to do the training in our own clubhouse. Whether the training actually comes about or not, this will provide an excuse for further relevant contact with those who are on the list.

This may be an uninformed opinion, but I can imagine several Y2K scenarios that would dictate a need to turn off any of the utilities. A water plant chemical accident could make the water hazardous. Manufacturing plant incidents could create hazmat situations that could interact with natural gas or electricity. Wild land fires might be more easily controlled if natural gas lines are not open. If electric surges are too frequent or severe, it may be best for our appliances and other equipment to turn it off.

In these kinds of situations, it would be best if residents were well aware how to do the job for themselves. I believe that most people are quite ignorant about this, and may not even realize it. As a way to make sure that everyone knows what to do, we will begin by offering to apply some reflective tape to the shutoff valves of their utilities, so that they can be easily seen at night, and in the stress of an emergency. We will test to make sure that their valve is not rusted and can be operated by turning it 1/8th of a turn. We will also show them how to determine if there is a leak in their natural gas or water.

In the case of ground access meters, we will use a garden tool to dig them out (one of ours was under a full foot of dirt, which shows how infrequently it is read), and a baby-wipe to clean off the meter face so that it can be easily read. We will see if they have the proper shutoff tools readily on hand. Our meters are situated such that each utility is best operated with a different type of tool. Our neighbors' are probably the same. We will offer to attach their shutoff tools to their meters using cable ties that we will supply. If they do not have enough shutoff tools, we will encourage them to place an order with us to purchase some at cost, and we'll take advance payment for it.

We will supply a luminescent, self-adhesive dot in a tiny Zip-lock bag, and attach it inside their front door jam (on a hinge). In an emergency, once they have checked all their meters and performed any necessary shutoffs, they would place the bright dot in the center of their front door, so that their block captain can focus on those homes that haven't yet accomplished the job or where nobody is home.

We will distribute a sheet listing items to have in a 72-hour emergency kit, and then emphasize that this would not be enough in a major emergency which covers a wide area, such as what North Carolina is now experiencing. We'll mention that Vermont, for example, is stressing that its citizens should prepare to be independent for at least three months, and that that would be more than reasonable in California where we are due for 'The Big One'. (You fill in your own location's special vulnerabilities, here.) For Vermont, that means finding some way to stay warm. That's not so much a concern, here, but drinking water is a big concern here in yearly drought country.

We will greatly emphasize the fact that water needs to be stored NOW, and not to wait until the time of any disaster to try to do it. Even if the system is still operating, if too many people try to draw on it at once, the pressure will drop. We'll make mention of the fact that many cities experience a noticeable pressure drop during television commercials, and that they're set to handle only about that level of demand... not the level where folks are filling bathtubs. We will provide an address and URL for watertanks.com, where they can get large storage bags that they can fill well in advance. Unfortunately, the homes here don't have basements, so people won't be inclined to purchase these bags and fill them, because they won't want filled bags in the way around the house.

We'll also provide an address and URL for obtaining KI, which has a long shelf life, and which everyone should have on hand.

After the neighborhood canvas is complete, and based upon the impressions that we have of each household, we will identify good potential "block captains" to serve each of our 6-7 home cul-de-sacs. This kind of neighborhood activism could help to put me in a position to influence folks toward cooperation at the time of an actual emergency, without tipping my hand about having been "overly" prepared.

Here are some additional ideas of items you can have on hand for later sharing: Get barrels, pvc downspouts & elbows, ladles, and buckets for distributing water.

Save and collect appropriately sized boxes, and stock large quantities of aluminum foil for making solar cookers. This will help to conserve everyone's woodpiles (for those who have wood on hand), and the trees on our property. This has to be done early on, before everyone runs through their meager food stores.

Save and collect appropriately sized boxes and other necessary materials for making solar water distillers (AKA water purification puddles). This is the most energy efficient, healthful, and water conserving way to purify water, and is indefinitely sustainable.

Purchase material to extend the height of your neighborhood fence, or to create a fence around the neighborhood, and lend it to the neighborhood. Later, you can use this around your garden to deter vegetable thieves. Or, you can sell it to someone else for that purpose, whatever the Y2K outcome. It won't do any good to plant a garden until any period of civil unrest is passed anyway.

Obtain an aerial photograph of your neighborhood, or a plat map and have it greatly enlarged and laminated or framed in glass. Then remove it from the glass and roll it up. Put some other picture in the frame, like an old college poster or something. When it comes time to organize, pull out the roll & use it with the group for a while, complaining about how it's getting beat up and may have to last for a while. Later, show up with it in the frame. Make up in advance some stickers to represent items of infrastructure, such as creeks, latrines, wells, guard posts, etc. For these stickers use materials that you would reasonably have happened to have on hand.

Give your kids and neighborhood kids Mr. Microphone's for their birthdays and other holidays. They may lend them back if you need them to run a neighborhood meeting.

Get a label tape tool, and plenty of tape so that everyone can label their tools and more safely lend them and return them to their rightful owners.

If the internet is still up, your ability to connect to it will explain a lot of your "walking survival encyclopedia" abilities. It can appear as though you are discovering all these useful answers after the crisis has begun. To do this, you may need an alternative source of electricity. Hopefully, a cell modem won't be necessary, but mid-December may be a good time to take on a one-month trial service on one (even if you have to pay dearly for it). In case of a bad Y2K, this may be your only way to connect.

Get a poleroid camera and film. You can use this to take a couple group photos. If you have a scanner and an alternative source of power, you can print out copies for everyone, with a legend telling who each person is. Then, cut out everyone's pictures and mount on neighborhood ID cards. You can pick up appropriately sized lamination pockets, which can be sealed with a sad iron.

I had one other great idea of something to get, which I'll share on this thread, as soon as I manage to get one for my own neighborhood.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 04, 1999.

Excellents plans, Dancr! Go NERT! NET/CERT! Yes, these programs are the best official way to spark sensible community activism preparing for disasters. The backing of the Fire Dept. gives the reassurance of OKness. Folks, try to get into your next NERT class. If they say it is full, show up for the first class a little early, anyway. If the public demands the training, the trainers will find a way.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 25, 1999.