http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_hyatt/19990930_xcmhy_what_if_i_.shtml

What if I am wrong about Y2K?

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) 1999 Michael S. Hyatt

About once a week, someone sends me an e-mail, asking how I am going to feel when Y2K turns out to be nothing more than "a bump in the road." If you've been trying to build awareness with your friends and associates, you have no doubt experienced the same thing. These people express a confidence about the outcome of Y2K that makes you wonder if they have just returned from a trek to the future. However, the people who ask this question are not typically computer professionals. Their information about Y2K often comes from the mainstream media, where the reporters are too lazy or too rushed to read anything more than a press release or an executive summary. Or perhaps their research into the issue comes from their cousin Ernie who talked to someone who knows a programmer who says it will be no big deal. Or maybe they are simply a PC "power user," someone who thinks they fully understand automated technology because they can record a Word macro or know how to write an Excel formula (as long as it's not too complicated).

Even when I have had big-league computer professionals challenge me -- and it has only happened a couple of times -- it usually comes from someone working in a corporation where they did, in fact, start early on the problem and have worked hard to solve it. These individuals tend to be myopic, thinking the whole world is in as good shape as their organization is. (To be fair, I have seen the opposite problem as well, where programmers in companies that have done a poor job addressing Y2K think that the whole world is in big trouble.)

Regardless of the source of the questions, I usually respond in one of three ways. I offer these in the hope that you may find them useful with the naysayers in your life.

1. Let's hope that Y2K is a bump in the road. I like to find common ground wherever possible, and this is one place where we can agree with our adversaries: No one in his or her right mind wants Y2K to be a disaster. I certainly don't, and my guess is that you don't either. (If you do, you need counseling!)

I like my life the way it is. I appreciate automated technology as well as the next person, and I can assure you, I hate the idea of living in a low-tech world. (I don't even like to camp!) My idea of a good time does not include the possibility of losing electricity, clean water, or any of the other things I take for granted in my day-to-day life. I enjoy living in a prosperous economy and would be delighted for it to continue unabated.

2. Those sounding the alarm are, in one way or another, minimizing the impact of Y2K. When I started researching Y2K, I talked to my wife candidly about my fears regarding speaking out about Y2K. I said, "What if I sound the trumpet and then nothing happens? Won't I look foolish?"

She said, "The only way you can lose is if you don't say anything at all."

"What do you mean?" I asked.

"Well, if you speak out and help raise awareness on the issue, then maybe -- just maybe -- the problem can either be fixed or its impact minimized. If that doesn't happen, then at least people will know what's at risk and have the opportunity to prepare for it. Either way, you get to be part of the solution. But if you don't speak out, if you don't call attention to this issue, then you become part of the problem. You have this information for a reason -- now use it!"

I think her advice was right on.

But this is also true of you. To the extent that you have warned your friends and colleagues, you have played a role in helping to solve the problem and minimize its impact. If people haven't listened to you, then the responsibility is theirs. You have done your part, and that's all you can do.

3. We'll have supplies we can use for any emergency. If I prepare for Y2K, and the problem fizzles out, I'll still have water I can drink, food I can eat, and other supplies that will prove useful in other situations. At the very least, my family's expenses for early 2000 are going to be significantly reduced.

But if I do nothing to prepare, and Y2K creates significant disruptions, then I will, at the very least, put myself and my family in a place of great inconvenience and discomfort or, at the most, in a dangerous or even life-threatening position.

To prepare or not to prepare? Is that really such a difficult question? I think not. As I have said before, it is better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.

Sometime next year we will all be able to look back and see whether or not Y2K was something to worry about. But, unfortunately, right now we don't have the perspective that hindsight affords us. What we do have are specific examples of Y2K failures, conflicting surveys about the progress of remediation, self-reported data from federal government agencies and various businesses, and the newly-awakened knowledge that we are more dependent on automated technology than we ever thought possible.

Will I feel badly if Y2K turns out to be nothing more than a bump in the road? Not at all; I will be delighted. But will the naysayers who have done nothing to prepare feel the same way if Y2K is more than a bump in the road? I doubt it.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 30, 1999

Answers

UNCLE BOB: I find it both curious and at times incredulous that someone finds something you have said in your post with which to either disagree, refute, or ridicule. It seems to me that the decision to prepare, for no other reason than as a simple precaution, requires only the most cursory analysis of the facts.

Yet there are people who just as incredulously, dismiss our conclusion to prepare as either wrong, foolish, or representative of our utter stupidity.

Freedom, together with its logical corollary, responsibility, are wonderful things. When allowed to flourish, they require that each of us put our money where our mouths are, so to speak.

If we are wrong then while we eat our preps, along with a generous helping of crow, we will do so with a smile. If we are right, it will not be with a smile that we eat our preps, as we search for some crow to go with it.

Thank you for your post.

With respect,

-- Dave Walden (wprop@concentric.net), September 30, 1999.

I really hate to get fixed on something, but I've been an IBM guy (mainframe programmer) since 1968. Once again, from IBM:

A recent internal publication issued by International Business Machines Corp. focused on the Y2K problem, advises employees around the world to make personal contingency plans and be prepared on personal finances, including putting aside some extra cash.

...

While personal preparation suggestions are often cited by Y2K skeptics as coming from the lunatic fringe, it's quite another thing coming from IBM or the Red Cross.

...

That doesn't mean there won't be days or weeks of disruptions. What's remarkable about the IBM publication is its repeated reminders that "all markets, all businesses, all governments and all communities are interconnected."

In fact, IBM's graphic descriptions of Y2K interconnectedness and interdependencies aren't radically different from the dire falling-domino theories of such Y2K doomsayers as Dr. Gary North and Joe Boivin.

...

But Y2K, according to IBM, is not primarily about the way we code dates in computer software, hardware or components. Rather, "it's mostly about how information technology has spread throughout our economy, society and personal lives."

...

Don't wait until the final few weeks, since such supplies could be unavailable, scarce or very costly.

Coming from prominent Y2K gloom-and-doomers, such survival contingency plans might appear ludicrous. But when they come from IBM and the Red Cross, maybe -- just maybe --there may be cause to take at least the teensiest bit of personal preparations.

...

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 01, 1999.

Done prepping? Don't forget to buy extra toothpaste, dental floss, soap, hand and face cream, emery boards, packing tape, envelopes, pads of paper, pens, everyday supplies that you might need if things come back but items are hard to get and/or terribly expensive. Stock up now. (I wish I could, but I can't until I get down to Florida in about 1 1/2 weeks. We do have food, water, 200 rolls of toilet paper... I can hardly wait to SHOP!)

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 01, 1999.

OK Doomkiddies,

When it comes to living in a disaster scenario, I've become a crash-course authority in the past couple of weeks; certainly not by choice. But I'm here, living right smack dab in the middle of worst hurricane disaster to hit the North American continent in at least five centuries; and you're not. I'm living it 24 hours a day; you're only theorizing at best.

Preps are prudent, true enough. We make them here in Hurricane Alley as a matter of course. Some of mine came in real handy here lately.

But preps for six months, or a year? Ridiculous. And urging others to prepare for that amount of time is equally ridiculous, ludicrous, and downright irresponsible.

People have lives to live, and scarce resources with which to live them. Telling people to spend most of what they have, to prepare for a so-called disaster like Y2k, as if nothing else mattered, is completely socially irresponsible. If it were "every man for himself" in a disaster, as you people seem so fond of trumpeting, maybe such a course of action would be indicated.

But the truth is, that in a disaster, it is NOT "every man for himself". In a disaster, it is "people helping people". Disasters bring forth the human instinct for survival; and that instinct is NOT one which makes people violent in a struggle for supremacy. It is an instinct which lets people know that only in the survival of the community is there true safety. And so people pitch in to help one another.

How do I know this? I'm seeing it every day. EVERY day. It's been going on for two solid weeks, right where I live. It's on TV. On the radio. It's out on the streets, in the neighborhoods. People are staying out of work to volunteer, to help their less fortunate neighbors. These are facts against which there is NO argument.

The irrefutable proof is right here in eastern North Carolina, right now.

Preparations against a disaster are prudent. Reckless OVER-preparation due to the neurotic belief that people will not bond together in a disaster is sheer madness.

And there ya go.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), October 01, 1999.

Chicken Little, Our thoughts and prayers are with you. Given your situation what advice could you give about things you WISH you had? I too believe people will come together locally and help each other so I am trying to plan for the "gotta haves". A top ten would be helpful.

br14

-- br14 (br14@bout.done), October 01, 1999.

Sorry, CL, you are wrong. But your hurricane experience may help you to achieve a broader perspective on Y2K.

Your perspective, from inside the disaster zone, is understandable, but limited. Your hurricane, though respectable by hurricane standards, is no more than a pimple on the butt of the 'system'. To me, and everyone else in the world who is not there, it is not a disaster at all. It is a purely local event. And, as in all such local disasters, humanitarian aid flows from the unaffected areas into the disaster zone.

Try to enlarge your perspective, and consider a systemic, GLOBAL disaster (without the wind and rain) that cripples the infrastructure in similar ways. Where will the humanitarian aid flow from? Communities will struggle to survive, but there may be limited or no outside support flowing in. Try to imagine what your situation would be if there were NO outside assistance or resources available.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that it can't get worse than what you have been seeing. It can get worse. Much, much worse.

A local disaster is only a disaster for those who are in it. In a systemic disaster, we are all, THE WHOLE WORLD, in it.

Better restock your preps, CL.

Godspeed,

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), October 01, 1999.

I too am in NC, but far enough West that all we have is wet ground. My wife and I have prep'd, but we also believe in people helping people. Last weekend we both went and got 'shots in the butt' (first time since I was a kid). We are going east this afternoon to help out in anyway we can. It is bad there and not where we are, but we 'had the calling' to go east, so that's what we are going to do.

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), October 01, 1999.

Chicken Little,

I have been checking with organizations around Kinston and Tarboro and one of the Red Cross mainstays in Smithfield. We are not sure in what direction we are going this evening. Cause you are somewhere in the mess, maybe some local insight on where we might do the most good. We don't mind work or getting our feet dirty....

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), October 01, 1999.

Chicken Little

You're right, - people and organizations have flocked into your area to give help and supplies, - but you're also wrong. Lots of the help is coming from outside the disaster area, from communities who are not in a crisis. (Like when rescue crews from all over the world flocked to Turkey to help after the earthquake.)

In Y2K there are no "outside, unaffected communities" to come the recue. What we see that is so encouraging, yet misleading, is the outpouring of compassion and assistance from neighboring communities and states. If Y2K should actually develope into the worst case scenario, no one is coming to the recue and the supply lines to replace and recover on your own will not be there. You are seeing the "safety nets" and "support networks" kicking in during our current disasters. They are part of the system, as we know it. Remember, there may not be a "system". It's a whole new ball game and none of us know how this game will work. Long term supplies ARE prudent, not foolish.

-- homestead2 (homestead@monroecty.net), October 01, 1999.

Dear Chicken Little,

You better start practicing right now.

Raise your right hand real high and yell loudly 'HERE'.

Otherwise you might not get your daily rations at the y2k shelter.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 01, 1999.

Chicken Little said "But preps for six months, or a year? Ridiculous. "

.....Say, slick, have you ever been downsized in a recession? When the entire industry in which you have specialized is suffering economically? Ridiculous, you say?

Preps, they're not just for y2k anymore.....

-- Hungry? (will work for food@roadside.gov), October 01, 1999.

A rational explanation for making Y2K preparations http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001R UO

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 01, 1999.

chick,

my thoughts are with you. i can't even imagine what you are going through. the "how long should i prep for" dilema is a tough one. you've already been fighting the effects of floyd for two weeks. had the outside world not been able to roll up its sleeves, the red cross and fema suggestions would have been totally inadequate. if i over prep and several of my neighbors underprep, maybe together we have a shot at muddling through this coming january.

there is no "right" period of time to prepare for. but clearly 3 to 5 days, in your set of circumstances, was the wrong amount. god bless

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), October 01, 1999.

<< But preps for six months, or a year? Ridiculous. And urging others to prepare for that amount of time is equally ridiculous, ludicrous, and downright irresponsible. >>

Nope, you're wrong Little. As another poster above pointed out, 6 months to a year of preps are exactly what you need when faced with the possibility of medium to long-term unemployment. Even a serious recession could land some 5-7% of us in that position in a hurry. Are you seriously contending that there is no chance worth considering that Y2K could trigger such a recession?

What has a person lost who decides that those odds are sufficient to warrant that sort of action? Nothing at all; just coast along next year with super low grocery bills. What terrible impact have they foisted on the economy and their fellow man? Again, none.

My chickens are not very bright but even they know to come in before it rains. Why is this so hard for you to understand?

-- David Palm (djpalm64@yahoo.com), October 01, 1999.

I have been aware of this forum for about 18 months. I was scared stiff at that point. I have since learned that my federal government funded organization and our federal overseer are ready. I'm not saying that there will be no problems, but this is one of the last places I would expect to be y2k compliant and it is.

I have been predicting a stock market slide since May of 1998, to no avail. I said that by October 1998 the Dow would be arond 5,000. Good think I invested conservatively. Conversely, $$$,$$$,$$$.00 can't be spent on non-productive functions without some loss in productivity and then value and then stock prices. Therefore, I look for a recession over the next year, but not the floor falling our from under our feet.

Today is one of those dates that was supposed to cause major problems, none have occurred of which I am aware. I tend to be a Chicken Little sometimes and an optimist at others. I am preparing for potential problems as any midwesterner should - cans, blankets and water. Call me an idiot that can't fathom the entire concept, but I've been trying to get it for 18 months and I can't seem to buy in to the end of the world as we like it.

I plan to be working on my golf game in March 2000. Good luck and God Bless.

-- Slickaroo (yada@yada.com), October 01, 1999.

Offical Relief in NC

Just got back from a weekend of working in eastern NC. We went down as 'free agents', but hooked up Saturday morning with a Salvation Army volunteer group. We spent over 3 hours loading up vehicles and trying to find someone to help. The Salvation Army guy in the truck had a cell phone, no map, no plan, etc. We went to one neighborhood that was pretty devastated, but there were already some people there helping the residents clean out their houses. We then drove another 1/2 hour to a town that had no problems at all. We then were going to backtrack and go to a place that was in need of big time help, but thanks to our map (we were the only people in a 14 vehicle convoy that had one), we took a more direct route and got their much quicker. Once there, we were told to go into an area and basically go door to door and check on people and give out the supplies we had loaded from the warehouse. Of our sizable convoy, we and 2 other vehicles followed the river (we could do this because of our map) and we were very successful in benefiting quite a few folks. The others in the convoy blindly headed 'inland' (with no maps or directions) where we are sure they found no one in dire straights. The group we hooked up with was to meet back at the warehouse for a parade back to their hometown after their 'morning' of help (which ended up a misguided 2 hours). When the ones following us left, we took all the supplies they had and continued the quest until we ran out of supplies.

About 5:00, we returned to the little devastated town and dropped in on one of 2 local distribution centers. One had been set up in the little town of 94 houses and had a lot of stuff. Unfortunately, the local admins (mayor, rescue, fire, etc.) had designated this center for 'residents only' (they actually had made a big sign) and were turning away folks that lived outside the town limits. The mayor of this little town whined on national TV to get help and then when it arrived, they closed the door to literally hundreds of people that needed it.

We went to the other center where we worked until they closed and again here on Sunday. We had tons of stuff and basically worked our butts off giving whatever was needed to whoever asked. We had about 6 pallets of water, which the Red Cross said we had to have covered. We had an empty trailer sitting there, so a couple of hummers full of National Guard moved the water into the trailer. They setup the old 'throw em down the line' and proceeded to just toss the water into the trailer. Probably a good 1/3 of the water was destroyed from the man handling. During the loading, 2 of the guardsmen got into a real fight and had to be broken up by the others. This made me feel real warm and fuzzy knowing these were the folks that eventually may be responsible for most of us.

The town had lots of church groups and others all dressed alike helping clean houses, etc. 'Our' little center and the drive around efforts were all that most of the local population had. We were severely understaffed and the 'official' organizations offered no volunteer help. The Red Cross did come by around meal time and drop of food for the workers that were there. We had a real language problem in that we got a lot of the transient migrant workers who spoke only Spanish. We had a 12 year old girl that was our only translator. (The town center had bi-lingual soldier boys, who basically turned those with who he could communicate away).

To be honest, the flood was devastating, and anyone who had prepped would likely have lost all of that also, so prepping here may or may not have helped. The official organizations were around, but highly unorganized and majorly politically biased. I agree that this was a 'local' event and after spending a couple of days in the middle of it, my opinion of FEMA, the Red Cross and Salvation Army did change, however in the wrong direction. They all mean well and are probably doing the best they can, but in my opinion, it left a lot to be desired.

I could go on and on, but I think enough has been said. We will likely continue our weekend work, but after this weekend we will definitely take the 'free agent' approach in whatever area we end up.

PS. Topo maps of your surrounding area should also be a part of your preps. In the case of the area we were in, landmarks, roads, etc. were covered and the locals had real problems navigating around the area in which many of them had grown up. If a bug out becomes necessary, you may not be able to count on the routes you know and use today.

-- BH (silentvoice@ pobox.com), October 04, 1999.