In going through old files, I came across this snipet from Cory's WRP114 (from Nov. or Dec 98,I think.) Anyway, in reading this again, it makes more sense now then it did then.

Thinking About a Possible Future by Jo Anne Slaven

I think that the people in this group use the hurricane/earthquake examples because those "disasters" are ones that the ordinary person can easily imagine and relate to in some way. While this may be a good starting point in explaining the possible outcome of this whole mess, I have to agree that it's not going to be at all like that.

I picture more of a "creeping catastrophe". Putting aside the possibility of violence and looting for the moment, here's one way I can see it playing out.

November and December 1999 is panic time. The general public scrambling desperately for non-perishable foods, candles, and generators. I don't think that the people participating in the "1999 supply riots" will necessarily be thinking long-term. But they *will* want their 2-weeks worth of food and cash "just in case".

January 1 - 10 is blackout time for a lot of people. Obviously, that means no banks, no phones, etc. But somehow, the brave men in the hydro companies manage to bring power back up (sort of) in most places.

January 11 - 31 is *major* annoyance time. The ATMs are off-and-on. Power and phones are off-and-on. Your bank may be out of business. Fuel supplies are sporadic. Your water bill is screwed up, and you have to spend 4 hours in line to talk to someone about adjusting it. All you can find at the grocery store is mustard and plastic forks. The company that you work for had declared a brief lay-off until things settle down.

February 1 to May 31 is depression time. Nobody is buying all of those useless products on the market today (like beanie babies and leather sofas), so a lot of manufacturers and retailers have shut down. Not to mention hotels, restaurants and service companies. And the banks -they won't be doing too well either. Lots and lots of people out of work.

Feb February 1 to May 31 is also Time Dilation time, when the clocks in some older PCs start jumping forward unexpectedly. Some of these older computers are used in process control. Could get interesting. See http://www.nethawk.com/~jcrouch/

June 1 to September 30 is "cautiously hopeful" time. Lots of fresh fruits and vegetables are available, and everyone is looking forward to the abundance of foods that will be in the stores come the fall. There won't be enough to go around, but people are ignoring that for the moment.

October 1 to Lord-knows-when is Serious Shortage time (and a continuation of depression time). Shoes, clothing, fresh fruits and vegetables - anything that is normally imported from developing countries is in *very* short supply. And expensive. Not that the unemployed masses could afford to buy anything anyway. Perhaps more important, raw manufacturing materials from other countries are non-existant. As are the foreign markets for finished goods. And so it goes on. Bad times building on bad times. And remember that I left looting and violence out of the equation. Also omitted were martial law, nuclear "accidents" and disease.

I could be wrong though. It could be worse. (with acknowledgements to infomagic)

Jo Anne, who needs to buy more candles

-- Bill (bill@tinfoil.com), September 30, 1999

Answers

Test

-- olemanriver (tin@foil.com), September 30, 1999.

That's the senario I'm prepping for though I think that's twice as bad as it will be. I expect power will be flakey but up, in most places, fuel will get scarcer and more expensive and that we may be in a depression by year end. Oh well.

As for my income, well, that comes from selling CD-ROMs about solar power systems. If the economy doesn't totally tank my sales might not be off too much, what with people with flakey power being sick of it and all. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for ALL of us (...all the while running out of space to store food).

DCK

-- Don Kulha (dkulha@vom.com), September 30, 1999.

Yes, 2000-01-01 will be the START, not the end, of TSHTF.

-- A (A@AisA.com), October 01, 1999.