401 K money is keeping this market afloat. This is the sheeple's retirement money. The same sheeple who don't want to stock canned food for y2k. Given their DGI psychology w.r.t y2k, why should they run for financial cover either ? The market is under "cruise control".

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.com), September 30, 1999

Answers

Because sheep are sheep. Once a few start to bail; the others will follow, bleeting and bleeding.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), September 30, 1999.

Count, the manipulators can only do so much; there are a lot of holes in the ship, with a lot of compartments flooding. Keeping the ship afloat until Y2K can blamed may be the top PRIORITY, but you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men....

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), September 30, 1999.

Count,

I concur completely with your assessment. I think, the way investors are behaving is indicative that barring major announcements by the Gov. the markets will NOT panic over Y2K. There is enough bailing wire left to keep the regular markets afloat just a little longer...but IF there is to be a downside price problem in the markets it will come in the next 3 to 4 weeks, otherwise, things will most likely hang on til the rollover.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), September 30, 1999.

How about Jan. 3,4,5 2000 what will we *see* then?

-- todays Tom Sawyer (RUSH@2112.rockon!), September 30, 1999.

(Reposted from another thread today by me)

I don't personally expect a stock market crash before rollover, despite the nerves (not surprising and I/many others predicted those nerves at this time, of course).

Not all the global, economic, monetary indicators are bad for U.S. markets. While I would certainly not be SURPRISED to see Dow plunge several thousand points in next three months, I still expect the scenario I "bet" on intellecutally two months ago:

--- The Dow between 10 and 10,500 in September, as it has been for the most part.

--- Dipping below 10,000 in October but with lots of air-pump action to stabilize.

--- Mainly sideways motion until mid-December than more downward through the end of the year (9000-9500).

IMO, it is in the long-term interest of Japan and Europe that our markets not plummet before rollover just as it is in their long-term interest to take the economic ball away from U.S. if they can.

The elites will work together behind the scenes to see that there is an uncomfortable but reasonably successful international dance between now and rollover.

For the same reason, I don't see gold skyrocketing additionally before rollover (though CONGRATS to forum regulars who have ALREADY profited and another 25% gain would not surprise me)!

From Dec 15, while I have my guesses, all bets are "off" with respect to the markets for the following three months, minimally.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), September 30, 1999.

All the establishment economists and other shills say "No problemo". There's even a new book out titled something like "Dow 36,000".

All the alternative economists say "Duck and Cover".

Why I believe the alternate economists, even though they have been making predictions of doom for twenty or more years (Gary North, Howard Ruff, etc.) and we have had just recessions instead of depression.

If the manipulators of the U.S. system were not so clever and skilled, the system WOULD have collapsed already. According to Ravi Batra, we squeeked by again around 1990 with just a recession in the U.S. (Japan wasn't so lucky -- they are still in a recession, almost a depression, even now, starting back then.)

The "establishment" insists that old rules no longer apply, so you can't look to history. (If it happened further back than the Beatles, it didn't really exist). The "alternatives" say "au contraire".

I think the old rules apply. Human nature has not changed in 8,000 or so years of recorded human history. I don't think they changed 60 years ago or 10 years ago. Institutions have not changed in that period either. We in the U.S. had a short-lived (now dead) experiment with freedom (for some), but the U.S. republic was a short-lived anomoly.

Some similies:
Guy falls off the top of a 100-story building. As he passes the fifth floor, he is heard to say "so far, so good."
When you blow up a balloon (analogy to the credit/stock market bubble), it looks fine while it keeps expanding. You know it's going to burst, but you don't know when. And it is still a bit of a surprise when it does burst.

-- A (A@AisA.com), September 30, 1999.

I've got to disagree. What keeps the market floating is a balance -- a balance between buyers and sellers. At some point before the rollover, people will begin to sit on their hands. As I tried to say in a pathetic post previously, some "stock polly" on Moneyline said the only risk to y2k was panic, but that he could see the big money behind the scenes already starting to be moved into defensive positions. The most startling statement was that some fund(s) were poised to put a moratorium on equity purchases after Thanksgiving. If sitting on your hands becomes institutional POLICY for the last weeks of '99, the market takes a complete bath.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), September 30, 1999.

From today's TheStreet.com:

'Find me somebody that loves the market -- I'd like to talk to them,' [said Sam Ginzburg, managing director of equity trading at Gruntal] 'I'd like to shut off the trading screen and not do anything until late October, early November. Then I'll come back refreshed for the end of the year because that is when big money will be made.'

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 30, 1999.

It may not crash, but it certainly isn't going much higher. If only 10 percent of investors decide to get out before y2k, that will be sufficient to take the market down. The best option is to be in cash.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), September 30, 1999.

went yesterday to an investment seminar sponsored by grunthal in baltimore. the "fool" joe bagthalivia spends a lot of time on CNBC and the wall street week was talking to an audience of about 250 people 95% of them well heeled old ladies ( widows). joe made a fun out of y2k saying it is a joke and he sees dow at 15000 next year. the old ladies were loving him . poor souls had no idea what could happen to them. could people like him actually keep the markets up with their hyping?

-- bill the cpa (wsch 117360@aol.com), September 30, 1999.

"joe made a fun out of y2k saying it is a joke and he sees dow at 15000 next year. "

Sounds like a freudian slip to me. If joe attributes the current market downslide to Y2K, he ain't seen nothin' yet!!! It also confirms that the Wall Street regulars are watching the y2K situation more closely than they let on [as if we didn't know this already]. It's probably safe to assume that their money's not where their mouths are.

-- Y2K Pioneer (pioneer@aol.org), September 30, 1999.

Count Vronsky:

When Greenspan raises the interest rates later this year, the market will tank sooner than you have predicted.

So much for your Y2K connected scenario...

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), October 01, 1999.

"So much for your Y2K connected scenario..."

These are opinions here, Randolph. You write as if you've conclusively proven him wrong.

-- mil (millenium@yahoo.com), October 02, 1999.

Watch what happens on Monday.

My bet is for the 21st October.

Aletrnatively a long grind down to rollover.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 02, 1999.