DOW ON THE RISE------ GOLD WILL TANK

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Gold fever is only temporary. DOW 12000 by the end of the year.

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 28, 1999

Answers

DowGuy is a stupid dumbass. Will throw himself out a window 12 stories high on Wall Street by the end of the year.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), September 28, 1999.

DowGuy had better read up on how many short contracts of gold must still be covered. I expect the Dow will make a comeback before the true crash ignited by Y2K; then he'll jump out the window.

-- DGBennett (bennett1@peachnet.net), September 28, 1999.

I know you guys don't like it, but maybe I'll do some research and post who this joker really is.

-- 1 (c@c.com), September 28, 1999.

and you'd think after reading a teaser like this from the Chicago Tribune that Stocks were rallying!

"Stocks rally after midday collapse

Stocks staged a stunning late-session rally today, with the Dow Jones industrials gaining nearly 200 points in the last two hours, to close with only modest declines. At the close, the Dow was down 27.86 at 10,275.53 after having fallen more than 222 points early in the afternoon."

basically they GAINED 200 points, but also lost 227.86.

stunning, absolutely stunning.

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), September 28, 1999.


I'm going to miss DowGuy after he tragically plunges to his death.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), September 28, 1999.


I agree with K.O.S. And this is not "gold fever" going on here. This is a loss of control of the previous manipulation. All it took was for some extra buying to start an upward drive in the price, then all those who were short, or had to deliver actual physical gold, were forced to buy into the market, which further drove the price up, which put more shorts in trouble, causing more frantic buying to cover themselves, etc, etc. No telling where this will end, but it's the inevitable result of the attempted manipulation, together with a horrendous amount of leasing and derivitive speculation. It may very well be out of control now, with the "market" dictating what the metal is actually worth. I saw a comment on CNBC that actual cost to produce gold, everything considered, averages just over $300 per oz. That's where you start when you want to know what the bottom line value is. Watch the opening price for clues, as those who are in a short squeeze will make their decisions about covering during the night and enter the market with their best bids to solve their problems, or save their butts, if you want to look at it realistically.

As to the DOW, the last hour of trading was being driven by computer buy programs that triggered in when the index fell more than 200. This sort of recovery is not intelligent, just a computer doing what it's programmed to do. Of course there are many funds that *must* keep investing in the market, as per their prospectus, whether that makes good sense or not. Watch the DOW for a downward trend from now on.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), September 28, 1999.


Gold up, Dow down. Sounds like the way things are supposed to be going right about now. Buy those coins, boys, it's gonna be a wild ride.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), September 28, 1999.

Good analysis Gordon. Add to that, the fact that when South America and Russia go into upheaval post 2000 gold and platinum production costs will skyrocket (last time I checked, mining equipment was dependent on supply lines and oil ...)

-- a (a@a.a), September 28, 1999.

"from another post"....

1929 Crash Today the market very nearly tanked as we all know. A very similar thing happened in 1929 and was a prelude to the big crash. Folks if you're still in the market, today was your warning signal. Time to get out.

The summer of 1929 was not too bad. It hearkened somewhat of the good old days of optimism. And even though there still was an air of nervousness, the market appeared to be stable. It was on September 3, right after the holiday, that a bear market became firmly established. The roller coaster was on its final descent.

Panic. It is a word that describes a highly intense, contagious fear amongst a large number of people. It is a phenomenon which social psychologists are fond of studying, yet at the same time they themselves are just as prone to it as the rest of us are. Panic is far more serious than a frenzy, and it is hard to describe without reference. In the crash of 1987, it may be safe to say it was a day of frenzied selling, and arguably far short of true panic. One week in October 1929, there was a true panic, and many rich people became poor people in one single day.

It began on Thursday, October 24, 1929. 12,894,650 shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange-a record. To put this number in perspective, let us go back a bit to March 12, 1928 when there was at that time a record set for trading activity. On that day, a total of 3,875,910 shares were traded. As you can see, Wall Street was a very, very busy place, as were markets world-wide. A big problem not mentioned so far in all this was communication.

The ticker tape machine had gone through great amounts of perfections since its early applications in the 1870s-80s by Edison and others. Even at telegraphic speed, the volume was having an effect on time. Issues were behind as much as one hour to an hour and a half on the tape. Phones were just busy signals on hooks. It was causing crowds to gather outside of the NYSE trying to get in the communication. Police had to be called to control the strangest of riot masses; the investors of business. It is not yet noon.

The habit of lunch eased the panic somewhat and New York paused for a breath. There were rumblings of bargain grabbing to come in the afternoon, so maybe something could be salvaged. And it did comeback to regain much of the losses. For example, a stock like Montgomery- Ward opened at 83 and dropped to 50 and recovered to 74. This was typical for the big name companies. On Friday, the mixture of margin call bargains combined with sells that were waiting from the late tickers on Thursday led to a bit of a gain. The trading was about 6 million shares. There was a short session on Saturday which brought everything back to the level of Thursday.

The weekend was indeed welcome relief. It gave investors a chance to sort out their portfolios and plan for what might be a rough week. If we go back to our 100 shares of Red Wagon shares is worth about $13500-that's better than $9800 we were faced with before noon on Thursday the 24th! I think we wouldn't mind just sitting. Don't think I want to buy anymore right now. Our broker has called us and asked if we want to sell or put up the margin. Well we paid $1500 for the thing, why not cover the margin with $2500? It keeps our investment viable. We'll raise the cash somehow.

Others though had cleverly planned for the crash and kept their money out and were ready to pick up some real bargains. They got set up for even worse ruin. On Monday, October 28, 1929 the volume was huge-over 9,250,000 shares traded. The losses were great as well. But unlike Thursday, there was no dramatic recovery; it was the prelude to Black Tuesday. The most infamous day in Wall Street history.

There is a reckoning that occurs every so often in world history. It is a time when debts are paid, when wars are fought, when disease ravages and passes through a land, when the corn does not grow like it used to, or when the forces of nature itself delivers a brief catastrophic blow. On Black Tuesday, the reckoning of several years of boom, which was based in large part on credit, came due.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 28, 1999.


Whatsa matter? Can't you people take a joke???? I own no stock, never met a stock broker and could care less where the market or gold goes. It's just a prediction. :)

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 28, 1999.


AND AND AND P-PIGS WILL F=FLY !!!!!!!!

-- Goldbug (Goldbug@mint.com), September 28, 1999.

Hey... Got a question for all the people who know about gold and the like. I own some silver (can't afford gold), and I'm wondering if silver follows the same trend as gold does... ie. Gold UP = Silver UP ??? Are they related? Or is just gold going to go on this wild ride? Thanks in advance....

-- TreeGod (_treegod@excite.com), September 28, 1999.

DowGuy will survive. For anyone who cannot read the writing on the wall surely cannot find an open window.

-- enough is (enough@enough.com), September 28, 1999.

[Fun Use: For Humorous/Entertainment Purposes Only]

I just saw this over at ABCNews.com and thought it might give some of you a chuckle. It's about a new book called Dow 36,000...

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/glassman990928.html

"The Dow's the Limit - Can You Profit from a Four-fold Rise in the Stock Market?"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 28, 1999.


No one really knows what will happen. Your guess is as good as mine. I say gold will tank and the market will go up. You disagree. I think it's called freedom of speech. :)

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 28, 1999.


Dow Guy,

Sounds like you are in denial - still got a lot in the market? Well, look at it this way, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Take Uncle Bob's advice, there's still an awful lot of correcting needs to be done to this market. And as for your idea that gold is going to "tank", that's absurd. Just a few days ago gold was at something like a 30 year low, and now it is gradually heading up. There is no way it can go any lower than it has been for the last couple of months.

-- @ (@@@.@), September 28, 1999.


Dow Guy,

Well, I'm glad you saw fit to clarify your own position. You don't have either stocks or gold, right? So, you're just spouting off opinions, huh? Look, as the old saying goes, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is. Then come back and tell us what you really think and why. Otherwise, your opinion is worthless and a waste of our good time. Everybody can be an analyst when they have nothing at stake personally. A friend of mine once played pretend options games by following the daily trades. He got so good at this pretend stuff he finally decided to actually put some of his money into it, which he figured to double real quick. Lost it all, real quick. I asked him what went wrong. He said: "Lost my nerve when I actually had real money riding on those decisions." Typical, Dow Guy, typical.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), September 28, 1999.


DOW 12000 by the end of the year.

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com)

BWWAAAHAHAHAHAAA!

Hey, dowdude, did'ja see????

Dow 10275.53 -27.86 (-0.27%)

Hmmmm, another loss I see? Do you smell profit takers and inexperienced "bargain hunters?" (lol, some bargains). Dumb cracks are buying at all time high levels. Bargain....yeah right.

-- karen (karen@karen.karen), September 28, 1999.


click

-- _ (_@_._), September 28, 1999.

Lets see. I don't own stock or gold so I am not allowed to have an opinion or make comments about the subject. I don't really see that as the problem. The problem is the fact that I disagree with the general mood of Yourdon.com. I guess I'll survive. :) It really is nice though, not to have to worry one way or the other about gold and stocks. :) I'll just comment instead.

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 28, 1999.

Wow Karen,

You need to get a grip.

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 28, 1999.


Half right ! - GOLD WILL TANK (sooner or later) and the DOW bubble will burst....Again

-- 29-87-99 (ron_wiebe@bc.sympatico.ca), September 28, 1999.

Dow Guy,

No, you missed the point, again. You are certainly allowed to have an opinion, it's just that your opinions are worthless. Sorry you can't seem to see that fact. The stock market and gold market are for adults only. But kids can talk about it if they want to.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), September 29, 1999.


Tree God: Hold on to your silver, Silver will do better percentage- wise than gold. In 1980 with gold at $850.00 an ounce, silver was at $50.00. (plus or minus) The gold / silver ratio is about 50+ to 1 right now. It has been over 100 to 1 in the past year or two; and toped out in 1980 at 17 to 1. As gold soars, silver should soar higher and faster as well. Carl.

-- carl r. eschbach (eschbachcr@ar-arng.ngb.army.mil), September 29, 1999.

Gordon,

I don't own any stock at the present time, but 10 years ago I purchased $15,000 worth of Microsoft. I sold it all about a year ago. You do the math. Sorry you are so down on me. Don't know what I did to deserve it.

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 29, 1999.


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