In my country the government has just announced that they will soon be launching some kind of Y2K Good Neighbour campaign. The details are not available yet, but I imagine it will be about neighbours getting to know eachother and eachothers possible needs in the event of a Y2K emergency, for some kind of mutual reassurance. The government have officially declared that stockpiling is not necessary and should be avoided at all costs (I don't want to argue about this, this is just how it is here). My question is whether anybody knows of any source of online information that particularly focuses on this minimal level of preparation. Given that stockpiling is ruled out, the most we can hope to do is to provide a a kind of mutual reassurance to eachother, to reduce or avoid too much anxiety. I know that many people might find this kind of prep hopelessly inadequate, maybe even part of the problem, but I think it's where most of the world will be, right or wrong. Any comments or links would be appreciated.

-- Chris Byrne (cbyrne98@hotmail.com), September 27, 1999

Answers

I have been buying "marine" horns for the purpose of having a way to alert the community in case strangers show up. If everyone comes when the horn blows, it could deter any mischief. These horns are found in wal-mart, K-mart, fishing supply stores, etc. They sell for $8-$12. As a gift, it might be a nice way to get to know your neighbors.

-- KoFE (your@town.USA), September 27, 1999.

Kofe, a question, if you will:

Why would you want a neighbor you don't know to come rushing to your aid against someone ELSE you don't know? What if the person you are protecting each other against turns out to be a "better" person than your neighbor?

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 27, 1999.

Chris, you say:

Given that stockpiling is ruled out, the most we can hope to do is to provide a a kind of mutual reassurance to eachother, to reduce or avoid too much anxiety.

Where are you from? Is it England? Just because the government has declared that stockpiling is "not necessary", surely that doesn't mean that you will follow their advice against your own judgement, does it?

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 27, 1999.

(1) While the government may be actively discouraging stockpiling, it might still be prudent to obtain such additional supplies "for the holiday season" as you can. Oh, darn, you must of bought too much flour for the Christmas cake! (A couple of hundred pounds too much...)

(2) While preparations are often related to storage, some are on-going activities. In our case, it includes raising (16!) chickens (for eggs). This gives us something to give our neighbors. Gardening, fishing (preferably in a sailboat), and raising rabbits (for meat) are other activities that may also fit into the "allowable" mold.

(3) Knowing your neighbors well may help a lot if push comes to shove. At least you may have some idea as to which ones you can trust (anyone on a Harley), and which not to turn your back on (anyone is a suit!).

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 27, 1999.

Just a plan AK. If the real situation is different, I hope I can adapt to it. I'd like a network of like-minded people. If you don't feel that you can trust your neighbors then this plan wouldn't work for you.

-- KoFE (your@town.USA), September 27, 1999.

Kofe, I think I can trust about ninety percent of my neighbors, not that we are like minded. Far from it, for the most part. I'm just not sure how you figure your neighbors are any different than strangers, if you haven't met your neighbors yet.

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 27, 1999.

Al K. Lloyd said:

Just because the government has declared that stockpiling is "not necessary", surely that doesn't mean that you will follow their advice against your own judgement, does it?

Al - I'm not talking about me (or my family) as individuals, I'm trying to address a broader reality, where I live (no, it isn't England). That is, most people will go along with what the authorities advise in relation to stockpiling, banking etc., unless something quite unexpected triggers a complete loss of confidence in their leaders authority prior to the event (IMO very unlikely pre- y2k). The information the general population is getting is that things are under control, at national and county level. Awareness is high and surveys show that they expect disruptions will occur. They don't know where or what these disruptions will look like but they have been assured that disruptions to basic infrastructure (power, water, heat) disruption will be minimal, localised and of a short duration at worse. If an unforeseen problem should occur in a basic infrastructure service (e.g. loss of some computerised control and monitoring systems), then there are manual workarounds, fixes and a fully operational staff ready to keep the show on the road. Likewise, they say, with emergency services and civil defence organisations - full alert, fully briefed, fully exercised (they recently held TEOTWAWKI type exercises) and fully resourced to handle any emergencies that could arise.

Now, as I said I don't want to get into a discussion over what ought to have been done(like you, I would like to have seen much more preparation, much earlier). However, given that this is the strategy for dealing with millenium problem in my location and given that most people are likely to accept it - in fact they are unlikely to have much choice at such a late date (I believe the campaign will be launched sometime in November). Given all of this, what are the best tactics to deal with this strategic reality, and in particular support eachother through any anxiety that may come pre-y2k and any of the disruption scenarios that could occur after the event. In writing this, I am aware that many people could see this as asking a question about how best to pacify eachother against the 'true' reality of y2k. This isn't my objective. I just want to get links to information on how other communities/countries who see a much less threatening y2k scenario are preparing for y2k.

I think it was Big Dog on another thread who asked people to recognise that are no certainties about y2k and people will see it differently in different places, and that it will indeed manifest itself with varying degrees disruption. In other words people will prepare according to how they see things in their locality, and their responses to events will be conditioned many many different factors (e.g. weather, culture, size, demographics, level of trust in government etc. etc.). Where I live, the official (and accepted) view is that y2k will cause minimum disruption and that the main danger is 'anti-social' overreactions. This is the foundation for their preparation strategy, like it or not.

Do we have anything to say to this kind of strategy, or is it too ridiculous to be taken seriously and we should just dive back into individual preparation? I hope not, because I fear that this is going to be the strategy in most places - minimum but better than nothing. So what should minimum mean, in the context of neighbourhood y2k alertness?

Apologies for the ramble.

-- Chris Byrne (cbyrne98@hotmail.com), September 28, 1999.

Chris, the Know Your Neighbor approach that your government of whatever country that you live in is taking strikes me as about as friendly as the "Know Your Customer" regs that were proposed for U.S. banks (the regs were withdrawn from consideration after a lot of citizens protested). One the one hand, you are assured that Y2K disruptions will be minimal, yet on the other hand you and your neighbors are encouraged to learn all you can about whatever Y2K preparation individuals might be doing. Meanwhile, your government itself is practicing handling worst case TEOTWAWKI scenarios.

Here is what I think:

1) If indeed Y2K disruptions turn out to be severe, the government will have no problems finding out Who has What, should it be decided that things need to be re-allocated from Ants to Grasshoppers. Unfortunately, accounts of previous shortages, such as in wartime conditions, show that many "have-nots" are more than willing to "turn in" the "haves".

2) That your government is itself planning for the worst case -- as is, for that matter, the U.S. and Canada, and probably many others -- yet is trying to minimize any other than very light preparation, means that should the worst case happen, you are completely dependent on whatever goes down in a probably martial law scenario.

3) I am not even going to ask whether private citizens are permitted ownership of firearms. I am afraid of what the answer will be.

4) If there is any way that you and your family can escape -- to a less populated area within your country, for instance -- I think that you should seriously consider it.

Good luck.

94 days.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), September 28, 1999.

Chris, I am feeling terribly sorry for your predicament, because the government ought not to be attempting to regulate your thought processes and decisions which could mean your and your dependents' survival! I would not allow any government to do that to me.

In response to your question, there have been many modest preparation suggestions, including Stan Faryna's repeatedly (for newcomers' sakes) excellent "14 Days of Preparations" on the main TB2000 Forum.

As to community prep solutions, I have seen a few idealistic models on some of the forums, but none of them seemed workable in the type of situation in which we may find ourselves, i.e., others who have not bothered to prepare, looters, etc.

As many of us in America on this forum have reported repeatedly, our best attempts to get others to realize the gravity of the situation and prepare have been more often than not met with derision.

I do not imagine that merely providing "a kind of mutual reassurance to each other, to reduce or avoid too much anxiety," will work if things go bad at rollover! All of the reassurance in the world will not take the place of food, water, heat, light, and medications!

I will add you to my prayers, for I suspect that you will need them. God bless you!

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), September 29, 1999.

Thanks Jack and Elaine for your responses.

Let me spell out the reality as seen (on a national level) from my neck of the woods, not from yours, not from mine, or from the Y2K aware on this forum.

The population have been told in unambiguous terms that there WILL NOT be any need to take any kind of individual measures against disruptions to essential services  food, medicine, heat, electricity, water. This has been the message, reinforced time and again by local governmental representatives, and not least the local or national organisations that provide all of these services. At the same time, the people have been told that despite the best efforts and confidence of all those in authority, there could be unforeseen problems. They have also been told that the emergency services will be on full alert (together with the IT folk responsible), to handle these unforeseen problems. This is nothing new for the emergency services  being prepared for the worst is part of their job. Y2K is a situation with unique challenges for them, but again unique challenges are nothing new. They are not being complacent, but in their estimation Y2K is no worse a threat (to human life, at least) than, say, a nuclear disaster. I imagine they see it as even more manageable precisely because the timing of the threat is largely known and they can be ready for whatever happens.

Now, as in the USA, we have had our share of schiophrenic media reporting, and this is expected to increase in the weeks to come. Its a delicious story, too good for any editor to miss the opportunity to increase sales. At the same time, many people today get their information over cable TV, from international broadcasters, CNN, BBC etc. as well as the internet. So even if the local non- English speaking media work with the government to dampen the level of sensationalism, resisting the FUD tidal wave will be difficult. This is a laid-back liberal society, very prosperous, very socialistic (by American standards) and with no tradition of people- fear (crime, guns, ghettos, violent underclasses etc.). My guess is that the FUD factor will come mostly from outside and that the initial mode of ideological resistance will be derision and ridicule (those silly Americans getting their knickers in a twist again etc.). But seeds of doubt will take root and Im sure there will be some anxiety amongst many people in the last week or two of the year, particularly the elderly, those that would otherwise spend New Year alone, or those that havent heard the message clearly enough that all is well.

This is the reality, as I see it, in one small European country  incidentally, a country that Gartner, the US State Department, Cap Gemini etc. have declared as amongst the top 10 prepared. In the view of international officialdom and expertise, this country will experience minimal Y2K disruptions. And from my own discussions with journalists here who have been covering the story for some time, it is also a country that, even if there are serious impacts (sudden or gradual, or from global fallout), then the culture, demographics and homogeneity of the country will handle it well enough to ensure a swift recovery.

Now, as you can see I use a lot of quotation marks because I have been around the Y2K scene too long to feel completely comfortable with this picture. But Im not concerned about myself. Ive done what I can to raise awareness and ask the questions that needed asking. My purpose from here on to y2k and beyond will be to work with the reality that people are in, the reality I describe above. I wont feign naivety, but Im not going to add to the FUD factor at this late stage  time has passed for that on a large-scale collective level. I know this might go against the grain of thinking on this forum, but I think that the time for full-throttle awareness raising is over, at least in my context. At this stage it will do little more than complicate the situation. It will create FUD. These days, if people I dont know very very well ask me about Y2K, I refer them to their local government offices. I would have like things to have been different, but they are not  thats life.

So to return to my original question  apart from individual stockpiling, bugging out etc., do we (as a collective think tank on Y2K preparation matters) have anything to say that can meet the psychological needs of people who intend only to prepare for BITR.

Sorry if this sounds like a rhetorical question, it really isnt. The only good idea I can come up with is to throw neighbourhood New Year parties. Any other thoughts, or is this really a non-starter for discussion purposes?

-- Chris Byrne (cbyrne98@hotmail.com), September 30, 1999.

Chris, you obviously are very astute as to what the tradeoffs are in terms of Y2K preparation versus non-preparation. You do not say so, but I suspect that you are pretty much locked in to where you are, with very little choice in the matter. (Unlike people who are not locked in, but think that they are.)

I made the decision to re-locate from near Washington, D.C. to a rural farm in Northwest Arkansas, based on what I saw -- and see -- coming with Y2K. All I can advise is that you look at your own situation, and ask yourself by what means you might be able to position yourself and your family to a safer venue. In early Nazi Germany, a relatively few Jews emigrated so as to escape what they perceived as a threat; a threat that turned out to be real.

Good luck to you.

90 days.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 02, 1999.