Ravi Batra's latest book explains what is about to hit us like a freight train... the coming crash...

Here is a 101 for our resident know-nothing "economist" double-decker... aka 'tbill-decker'

Credit-worthiness and the flow of the economy are what sustains current price levels. All prices are based on debt now. The US$ itself only exists as an instrument of debt, not actual value.

Debt must be incurred in order to do any business today (ultimately it is all borrowed money). In order for debt to be incurred, three things must work.

1.) The lender must be capable of issuing debt (solvent and have spare capital OR be solvent enough to be capable of borrowing - more typical - from bigger banks).

2.) The economy and endeavors of the market place must support the borrower's loan.

3.) The borrower must be creditworthy.

The entire economy of the world is based on these three elements.

Y2K will effect the ability of the world to functionally continue the present cycling of dollars (electronic accounts); the present rate of economic activity due to a strangling of trade, resource delivery and business activity.

Thus the economic underpinning of both the lender and the borrower will come into doubt. This includes the governments of the world as well as the individual paycheck of a single worker.

This effect will cause a contraction of credit (already happening) and a spiralling decline in economic activity regardless of the efforts of governments to provide free 'money' (see the Yen situation). This is so because the problem will not be the availability of money through no cost loans but will be a problem of creditworthiness - i.e. Less and less people and institutions will be qualifiable as borrowers (creditworthy). Current loans will be defaulted on which will hamper further borrowing by banks. We will be left with what is in 'circulation' rather than the expansion of debt.

Unfortunately the 'in circulation' money will be almost entirely be 'electronic' in nature. This will be a problem because of the reliability of the electronic systems as well as the solvency of the various financial intermediaries which constitute the system as a whole.

Debt failures always dump excessive amounts of property and labor on the markets (bankruptcies and unemployment). Without creditworthy borrowers and a functional financial system (the solvency of the intermediataries as well as the functionality of the systems they use) these properties and unemployed will be forced to a revaluation to the available cash market.

Since the available cash market is very small compared to the overall flow of the economy we can see that prices will drop. How much will prices drop? In the Great Depression prices and wages dropped by 25-30% and unemployment increased to 25%, equities dropped to 10% of high prices. This occurred in an economy which was substantially based upon a dollar backed by gold and silver (value) and a much lower debt per capita ratio than today. The US$ was devalued by 70% compared to gold in order to right the system, which did not help as much as expected since there were few 'qualified' borrowers and those who were qualified were not interested in borrowing. Hence stagnation.

We must recognize that today we are in immeasurably worse financial shape than during that time. The entire economy is based upon debt. The cash economy is trivial in comparison to the electronic/debt economy. We are 'maxed out' - as in we have borrowed to the maximum of our present ability to borrow (see escalating, record, bankruptcies in 'good times').

Prognosis:

We will see a deflation of approximately 75 to 95% on the present dollar prices of real property. We will see unemployment of between 40 to 60% and wages drop by as much percentage as asset values and prices. We will see a total confusion in the financial system and the economy will basically grind to a halt due to spasms of systems and intermediaries. We will be reduced to a cash economy and there will be precious little cash available and so barter will become the accepted means of survival.

After the initial 'reconfigurations' of the financial and economic landscapes we will see a renewed interest in silver and gold as basic money (reinvention of the wheel - barter to metal, metal to paper) but the valuations will be much more precious than today's because of the scarcity of PM's.

It must be remembered or at least learned that the American experience in trade was one of barter for the first 50 years of our countries existance. The US$ silver half dollar was the unit of account and used almost solely between banks as the reserve of all paper money obligations (on that silver) . Pennies, nickles and dimes were the standard currencies. Whole silver dollars were not used because they were considered to 'large' a denomination.

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More

Next year... currency 'wars'... starvation in some US cities... gubmint 'initiatives'... hyperinflation... anarchy... a barter economy, similar in many ways to Russia now... only the Russians can cope, we can't...

Make sure you can protect your wealth... when the dollar is destroyed make sure you have some gold and silver as a fallback... make sure you have plenty of cash and coin... plenty of water and food... means of self protection... be willing to blend in if it gets as bad as outlined above... if you don't blend in you will not last long... 90+ days to go - get your financial affairs in order now as time is almost up.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999

Answers

Thanks Andy, I thought Batra was predicting the first inflationary depression in the history of the United States. I know in the past he has talked about defationary depressions, in 1990 he predicted a defationary depression (no depression but a recession occured) .

Robert Prechter the Elliot Wave technician, predicted similar conditions in his 1995 book entitled "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave".

I think dDecker is following in the footsteps of most economists in that he is totally incorrect in his analysis.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 26, 1999.

Thanks Andy for a great post.It is very sobering and made me really pay attention to what was being said.

-- maggie (aaa@aaa.com), September 26, 1999.

Ray,

"I thought Batra was predicting the first inflationary depression" - yes, but there is more to it this time around - we are in a unique situation, a combination of all three. We shall soon see.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999.

Andy:

How long into 2000 do you think cash will be king before people begin to lose faith in paper money? After all, within the first several months of next year it will become increasingly obvious that the federal government will not be able to count on the IRS for revenue to say nothing about our INABILITY to pay at that time EVEN IF the IRS were functional.

-- Dr. Roger Altman (rogaltman@aol.com), September 26, 1999.

I will owe income tax next April. Maybe I'll just send the IRS a note: "Please take it out of my T-bill on deposit with you". (tee hee)

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), September 26, 1999.

Andy, heavy metal is making a comeback and you are the epi-center of this revival. Rock on to some brand new components, baby.

-- too much prozac (seeing@the.stars), September 26, 1999.

Roger,

I predict very quickly - if there are bank holidays and the systems begin to hose then there will be panic as people run out of cash. We've all been in that situation I'm sure. Multiply it a hundredfold...

Reviews

Amazon.com

Anyone who collects a wage will appreciate the premise behind Crash of the Millennium: Wages are too low, relative to the growth of productivity, and thus we're in for a global economic disaster. Who would've thought that being underpaid would have such awful repercussions? Batra, an economics professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, has a long history of mostly accurate predictions. He predicted a major depression in 1990, which turned out to be just a recession, but also had quite a few hits: the rising stock market in the '80s, falling inflation and real-estate crashes in the '90s, and assorted wars and other upheavals.

As the 20th century comes to a close, he avers, a handful of long- term trends are coming to a disastrous climax: too much government spending, too much consumer credit, too many monopolistic industries, too much wealth staying at the top in the form of high corporate profits and unprecedented stock prices, and too little trickling down in the form of wages. He also tells you what to do to minimize your losses in this disaster: Sell stocks and bonds. Forget about real estate as an inflation shelter. Park your money in bank certificates of deposit. If you have to speculate, buy gold, silver, or platinum. It's radical advice, but Batra backs it all up with numerous charts showing historical patterns of inflation and speculative bubbles. And he candidly admits he has no idea where all this will end up; his advice merely applies to late 1999 and the first two years of the new millennium. Is he right? We'll know soon enough. --Lou Schuler

From Kirkus Reviews

Batra's second attempt to explain why the economic sky is falling, and when. Batra (Economics/Southern Methodist Univ.) received widespread attention for his prediction of The Great Depression of 1990 (1987). In his new book, he repeats some of his previous arguments, many based on mainstream economic theories and sound investment guidelines. He argues, for example, that the present state of the stock market is a ``speculative bubble'' and, like get-rich- quick investment fads in the past, is due for a major comeuppance. Another serious danger theme is the impending Y2K crisis, which will coincide with an economic crash in the fall of 1999. The author is not fearful of combining predictions with dates and typically presents his arguments with historical examples and his major weapon, an almost religious belief in the regular, measurable rhythms of economic cycles. Although most modern economists have abandoned this concept, Batra embraces it as a fundamental principle; for him, economic tides not only wash in and out on predictable timetables, they are an infallible tool. With the next depression, this natural tide will replace our flawed economic structure with something better, for as he states, ``Crony capitalism is about to go the way of Soviet communism.'' Replacing it will be Prout, an acronym for a new socialist system derived by Batras mentor (but so quirky it might have been invented by Karl Marx on LSD). Prout is an economic, political, and social structure as well as a philosophy and clearly defines the politics of the author. For those taking his predictions to heart, he also includes a list of suggestions for weathering the difficulties he describes. The best way to evaluate this title is to recognize that ``the Great Depression of 1990'' didn't happen. In his latest book, the author not only dodges any blame for being wrong, he claims even greater prescient powers because of his previous reasoning. (Author tour) -- Copyright )1999, Kirkus Associates, LP. All rights reserved.

Book Description

It's remarkable how often the predictions of economics professor Ravi Batra have proven prescient. Years in advance he predicted the rise of fundamentalism in Iran, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the decline of communism, the stock market crash of 1987, and the September market slump of 1998. The one time Batra seemed to get it wrong was with the prediction of his best-selling book, The Great Depression of 1990. As it turned out, that depression was postponed by massive borrowing from abroad, and what we now face will be all the worse for the delay.

The premise of this book is as simple--and as powerful--as the law of supply and demand. In the United States, as in many other countries, we've been producing more and more goods, but wages have not kept pace. That disparity has been papered over by credit cards, easy loans and a huge speculative bubble in the stock market, but cracks are appearing in the walls. Russia, the "Tiger" economies of Asia, and Latin America have been hit hard recently, and Batra predicts similar tough times ahead for the United States. It will begin with a stock market crash in the fall of 1999, followed by a depression made doubly damaging by rising inflation. Its effects will reverberate through the early part of the coming decade.

In The Crash of the Millennium, Professor Batra describes how individuals, businesses, and governments can prepare for the hardships that lie ahead. And he tells us how, for those who survive, the future beyond the dark horizon holds decades of prosperity and peace.

From the Back Cover

"Ravi Batra has made an outstanding reputation in the United States as an international economic theorist in the best Western tradition." --Leonard Silk, New York Times

"When it comes to the bottom line so beloved of economists, one can learn a lot about events by thinking about them in cyclical regularities, of which Batra gives a novel and brilliant exposition." --Lester C. Thurow

"The forecasting record of this widely respected Southern Methodist University economist has won glowing praise from many pragmatic investment masters." --Tom Peters, Chicago Tribune

"Batra is a scholar who has earned a considerable reputation as an expert on trade." --Albert Crenshaw, Washington Post

"Scary, provocative. The good professor has a formidable academic reputation and, from what I know, his forecasting record is impressive." --Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley & Company

"Ravi Batra was used to making tumultuous global forecasts and having nobody listen--then predictions started to come true." --Chip Brown, Associated Press

"His predictions in the early 1980s of low inflation, falling oil prices, and a wave of mergers--mocked for years--have proved close to the mark." --Thomas C. Hayes, New York Times

About the Author

DR. RAVI BATRA, professor of economics at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, is the author of five international best- sellers. Chairman of the department from 1977 to 1980, Batra was ranked third among forty-six "superstars" selected from all-American universities by the learned journal Economic Inquiry. In 1990, the Italian prime minister awarded him a Medal of the Senate for correctly predicting the downfall of Soviet communism.

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Customer Comments

Average Customer Review: Number of Reviews: 4

A reader from Milton Keynes, UK , September 23, 1999 Ravi Batra is the best writer on economics, ever. Ravi Batra writes with the kind of ease and clarity that most economists can only dream of. While Robert Heilbroner is also a brilliant writer in this field, with his deep sociological insights, no one can match Batra's deeper social science insights still. His is the world of a thinker posessed with a spirit and view of life that transcends time, place and person, but is at home in the here and now. He grasps the inner meaning of complex processes rooted in human nature and makes them clear to the reader. Those type of insights are usually absent in the works of the run of the mill specialists. For instance, the well known mainstream economist, Paul Krugman, professes an oversight of his field. But, sorry to say, he falls victim to the details of the superfical analytical trivia he seeks to explain. Because he writes to history, Batra's books have a life that will keep them fresh, long after the hardnosed mathematical proofs of modern economic rectitude, and their interpreters, are shriveled piles of dust. Ravi Batra is not only a superb economist, but a veritable mystic. There has never been his like, and there probably never will. His genius recalls the likes of Thorstein Veblen and Joseph Schumpeter, economist-writers earlier this century, who also wrote best sellers that stirred at the foundations of their discipline. This book is for people who want a new understanding of the economy they inhabit, as living, breathing people, and what the future may hold. It is full of the unexpected. If Batra is right, there may be difficulties ahead. But just over the horizon awaits a good future indeed, and very different from what the unimaginative linear minds project. His is, by far, the more profound and meaningful understanding of the human historical process, and where it is taking us. Although in a group of books listed as a must read, it is superbly enjoyable from start to finish.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999.

Thanks Andy,

This one just hit me like a freight train. What happens to our overinflated real estate holdings when the slam bang rolls into place. You know, that place you plunked down 250,450,750k for and are now sitting in. Confident that it will be worth so much more in the future. Mine is currently for sale, and this is making me think I should keep it on the market a little longer and maybe lower the ask. I've been looking to pocket that asset inflation that Big Al gave me, but maybe I should be thinking about not taking a loss instead. Recently noted that home sales in the West had dropped 12% in a month. Figured I was at the top of the market, but it now appears I was actually sliding down the other side of the bell curve.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), September 26, 1999.

Andy: How long into 2000 do you think cash will be king?

Just a historical tidbit.. the "king" can quickly turn to an emperor with no clothes. I happened to be in Europe tootling around as a carefree college student in '71 when Nixon devalued the dollar. IMMEDIATELY dollars went from being accepted in any store/restaurant/train station to nearly worthless paper. Thank goodness I already had my return ticket. It was chaos.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 26, 1999.

Gordon, back in the late 80s southern California experienced a severe Real Estate deflation. Many folks wound up with negative equity and took some large losses.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 26, 1999.

Gordon,

To anyone considering selling a house in the near future, I am inclined to say: go for it! And, IMHO, the sooner the better.

Of course, your mileage may vary, but if stocks tumble, real estate prices are likely to tumble too.

BTW, none of my views are based on Batra's work or on the hype for his latest book.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 26, 1999.

Andy,

Batra's last book explained the freight train that was about to hit us back then. I will have to read the book for his explanation of why it didn't happen then but will really happen now.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), September 26, 1999.

Gordon! You're totally wrong about Real Estate "inflation" during Y2K. Many millions of unprepared people are expected to die during Y2K! There will be millions of homes sitting empty during Y2K because of that!

What is that going to do to Real Estate prices?

They will hit rock bottom!

-- freddie (freddie@thefreeloader.com), September 26, 1999.

So, like, did Batra refund any money to buyers of his books when he was wrong in the past?

Will he promise to do so this time if wrong?

-- Spanky (Spamenot@spamfree.net), September 26, 1999.

Gordo, sell quickly, bubble.com stocks compares only to the bubble in real estate..look for 75% drop,just like japan 89.

-- Ponzi (Dow@36000.bomb), September 26, 1999.

I vividly remember during the AIDs epidemic, there was a documentary that showed empty apartments, flats, and homes. The working force, the great minds, the arts, were totally destroyed. AIDs was depicted as catastrophe and there was no way to stop it. It was already in the blood supply and there was no way to curb the human desire for sexual activity or drugs. Though AIDs has eliminated millions of people, the predictions of empty homes,etc., never occurred. What's my point? Anyone can predict and paint a picture of doom and gloom and look like a fool afterwards.

-- ~~~~~ (~~~~@~~~.com), September 26, 1999.

Good analysis Andy. Greed will be our downfall. Henry Ford is famous for making the assembly line a success by standardizing parts so that more cars could be produced faster using identical parts. His greater contribution which is often overlooked was his adoption of the concept of a living wage so that his workers could affort to buy his cars. He instituted the policy of paying his workers $5 a day which was well above prevailing wages at that time so that his workers could afford to buy a car. The concept worked, production increased, prices came down and cars were affordable for the masses. Today we have greedy chief executives who "earn" (confiscate) salaries of millions of dollars a year at the same time that the production line worker does not even keep up with inflation. The official inflation figures are jiggered to hide the real inflation rate by ignoring increases in taxes, and applying artificial adjustments such as saying that todays car costs only $8,000 because of all the standard features and improvements that were not available on earlier models. The middle class is going deeper into debt and in fact the workers have negative savings (debt increases to higher levels each month). Therefore the workers have no available purchasing power to buy the products. A glut of unsold products builds up resulting in lower prices. This is happening with a "good" economy. Oil prices are increasing and this will result in inflation in other prices. Think what will happen when Y2k causes supply chain breakdowns, power interruptions, banking problems etc. that cause reduced sales, unemployment, bankrupticies etc. This will lead to a stock market crash and it will be much worse than 1929 because of all the debt that will default that was not that widespread in 1929. Each default will result in additional defaults and where will it end with declining values throught the economy? In the tank is the common term. Moe couldn't understand what I was talking about so I told him I would write this post. I think that Curly, Moe, Shemp and I understand these issues better than some of the gobmint officials who seem to think that creating more money out of nothing will solve all of the problems. It will not do so.

-- Larry (Larry@3stooges.gom), September 26, 1999.

To those morons who cannot work out for themselves what is already happening (Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Asia et al), what is in place and what is about to happen (Y2k or not - remember, Y2K is just going to totally f**k us over), I feel sorry for you. You are dead meat with that attitude. i guess you've never travelled or worked abroad have you? It's all a game to you - it's not real is it, it's just file footage on tee vee.

I lost big money in a housing bust in the UK back in the eighties. There are millions in the UK that lived in a negative equity situation for 10-15 years and probably only just recently have got out of debt. These folks, and you, are doomed to repeat this cycle. I don't have a property, but if I did I would have sold it by now. I just got top dollar for my Porsche a few months ago. That money is now in good use - it has bought Gold and multiple preps. Can you see me selling the Porsche next February when there is gas rationing and systems are imploding as predicted by Batra, Prechter, Rees-Mogg et al?

I don't think so. A friend in Silicon valley has just moved into a $500k house with his pregnant wife. They have no savings now, all their equity is in this lump of 'unreal' estate which would be worth $100k in Alabama (it's a beauty).

They will be wiped out in six months time. I may move in next door, when/if the dust settles, for less than $100k, much less IMHO. Though I never want to go back to THAT dump with THOSE clowns again.

What you fail to realise is that Batra was RIGHT. There should have been a crash back in the 90's but the Fed SPENT YOUR LIVES [NOW] AWAY TO STAVE OFF THE INEVITABLE back then, MAKING OUR COME-UPPANCE NOW INFINITELY WORSE!!!

NOW WE ARE ABOUT TO PAY THE PIPER. BUT THE ARROGANT SOB'S THAT REPLIED IN THE NEGATIVE ON THIS THREAD ARE ***TYPICAL*** OF WHY IT IS GOING TO BE LOGARITHMICALLY WORSE THIS TIME AROUND. BLIND, MORONIC, FAT, LAZY, GREEDY, KNOW-NOTHING SHEOPLE, WALLOWING IN THEIR .COM MANIA, FED BY THE BOZOS ON CNBC AND CNN.

Good luck Gordon, sell you that house quick, drop the price, unload it, unload all unnecessary luxuries while you can, get rid of that Rolex, dump those t-bills, dump those bonds, have conviction in your intellect and gut feeling of what is about to go down.

When the dust settles you will be king, and hopefully we will have a worthy society to live in, one which can be rebuilt the way it was meant to be by the founding fathers. There will be a price to pay - just make sure you and yours are not that price.

Got GOLD?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999.

Roger, Linda, All,

For a VERY realistic view of what may happen in the situation described by Roberto Vacca Ravi Batra etc., I highly recommend you read the first chapter of the book "Patriaznots : Surviving the Coming Collapse" by James Wesley, Rawles. The rest of the book is excellent too, from a practical barter/survival standpoint, though it does flag a little towards the end :) Still worth the time and money though - about $15 from Amazon.

It goes into great detail as to the events that could unfold to lead to the dollar being essentially worthless - and y2k is not even mentioned. It describes "The Crunch" - a hyper-inflationary scenario, and the breakdown of society. What is chilling is that he seems to have forecast what is happening on the world stage now...

I'm not saying this is ***going*** to happen (as it already has now, to a degree), but it is just one of several scenarios - and NONE of them will be pretty, no matter how well you may have prepared physically, financially and psychologically.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999.

That should read "patriots" :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999.

Cash -- withdraw early and withdraw often.
Convert some (as you can afford) to stash.
(Buy stash with cash to eliminate paper trail.)
Learn how to "midnight garden".)

-- A (A@AisA.com), September 26, 1999.

Patriots; Surviving the Coming Collapse was an excellent read. I highly recommend it. It's full of useful info.

At one time, a shorter version of this book was available for free over the internet. If I remember correctly, it started of as 'The Grey 90's', then it was called 'Triple Ought', then it was changed to 'TEOTWAWKI' before a publisher picked it up and it received it's current title.

Since it has become copyrighted, it is almost impossible to find any of the older titles on the internet......almost.

Before I purchased the book about a year ago, I found a copy of Triple Ought in an archive of a very large search engine. If anyone is interested in reading 'Triple Ought' (and the objections are minimal) I will post the url for the archived copy under a new thread titled 'Triple Ought'. Let me know if your interested.

-- NokternL (nokternl@anywhereusa.com), September 26, 1999.

Hi NokternL,

I think you should post it - it could be very valuable reading. If the passage about hyperinflation is in the archive, maybe you could cut and paste it on this thread - thanks.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999.

Yes NokternL, post the link!

TIA

-- sandi (sandihere@mailcity.com), September 26, 1999.

Four hundred years ago, in Shakespeare, there was a fishmonger who stated "Neither a borrower nor a lender be." Those words were spoken because THE BARD knew about history even then, and that in every great economic calamity, BOTH those types of people LOSE! The lender will never get his money (loan) back, and the borrower will be either bankrupt or indentured forever to the lender(remember that back then, in Elizabethan England, there WAS such a thing as debtor's prison.) As for prognosis, remember that in the depths of the 30's depression, unemployment was "only" about 25%! Now just try to imagine what would transpire if we have a financial collapse, whether caused by Y2K or just a monstrous collapse of the US asset mania balloon, which has driven the stock market capitalization to 170% of GDP. The reverse wealth effect, and the concomitant destruction of assets would indeed result in a GREATER Depression THAN THE ONE 70 YEARS AGO.

-- profit-of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), September 26, 1999.

A... what is midnight gardening?

Andy, I appreciate the time you take to explain your views in every post. I didn't care (wasn't interested) about understanding economics for so long, and now I must start at Basic 101 and try to piece it together (and in a hurry it seems!). One reason that I particularly like to read your posts is because it is so evident that you do it altruistically. (At least it's obvious to me.) Please keep on posting and explaining. You have influenced me, and I'm convinced it's a beneficial thing. Thanks again.

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), September 26, 1999.

As I predicted, there is a war between the BIS/Gold/Euro mob and the Dollar/IMF brigade...

And what has just come over the wire...

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q181bca.htm Labour leaders unite over euro entry By Robert Peston, Political Editor, in Bournemouth

Ministers and senior Labour members united yesterday in their determination to secure British entry into the euro within two or three years.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 27, 1999.

"Midnight gardening" means to hide your money (derived, I guess, from someone sneaking out someplace on their property in the dead of night and burying it).

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), September 27, 1999.

jeez, this guy must be mu twin :)

Date: Mon Sep 27 1999 03:09 Petronius (Testing the search engine I found something of mine I actually like...) ID#227200: Copyright ) 1999 Petronius/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 03:19 Petronius ( Let us dream on! ) ID#225236: Copyright ) 1998 Petronius/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved What is going on with the markets?

Let's go back to 1992. Dollar going to the toilet ( where it belongs ) , trade deficit soaring, people for the very first time starting to worry seriously about the DEBT, Perot's little infomercials gaining a lot support.

What was going on? Money printing, or rather E-magically creating out of nowhere. At one point dollar was worth less than 80 Japanese yen.

The dollar and the T-bonds should have become toilet paper then. Sure it would have been tough if they did then, but what was the alternative?

However, somehow, the US managed to talk Japan and other key countries into letting their money machines turned on as well to save the dollar. Add to it some hedge fund magic ( yen carry, gold carry, etc ) and voila - instant paradise was created. Dollar is king! The US stock market is in the sky! You say Japan committed suicide to save the dollar?! Who cares!

So what is wrong with all that from an American perspective? It is all insane, it is an act of desperation, a final stupid trick that postponed inevitable, that caused a very very bad situation to be traded for much much worse several years later.

Had we taken the medicine in 1992 it would have been bad. We would have food shortages and riots, probably a civil war. The fact that we did not only made sure that the resulting crisis that will eventually come will pound us all back to the stone age. It matters not if we have deflation or hyperinflation. Majority of the population will have no means to purchase the necessities. Mob that for years has been bread to support the big government will pound the US infrastructure into dust once the government stops delivering free lunches.

Make no mistake about it! We are past the point of no return! Every attempt will be made to keep the house of cards from falling a little longer.

But let us dream one week longer!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 27, 1999.

Andy, could you please make attribution next time. Thanks. I think it is only fair to do this. I appreciate your enthusiasm. Try not to be abusive though, eh?

-- Allen(USA) (Allen(USA)@Kitco.forum), September 27, 1999.

Allen,

I was not trying to steal your thunder at all - sorry if it appeared that way - I have posted a number of times about Ravi Batra's views and I tought your post fitted in very much with his and Prechters etc. I will be more careful in future. As you can see I also posted another kitcoite's views with an attribution. My apologies Sir! I just hope that we can all learn from these posts and get the word out.

Later,

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 27, 1999.

No offense taken, Andy. Your a good guy. Thanks for spreading the word about the coming storms. Those very few who will DO something for themselves will indeed remember you as having saved them from a worse fate.

Carry on and have a great morning.

PS Never 'sir' to you.

Yours, Allen(USA)

-- Allen(USA) (Allen(USA)@Kitco.forum), September 27, 1999.

Mumsie,

Much of what Andy posts here is stuff that he copies from someone else somewhere else. Sometimes he makes it clear that a particular post is copied from elsewhere, sometimes he does not. Also, if he adds his own comments to something he has copied, he may not make it clear which of the comments are his and which are not.

From time to time someone will remind Andy to clarify which is whose, as Allen(USA) just did, and when reminded, Andy will clarify the question at least with respect to the post in question.

BTW, I am not suggesting that Andy is consiously trying to mislead anyone about the authorship of what he posts. Rather that he sometimes seems to forget that clarity of authorship matters.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 27, 1999.

Hi NokternL! I also request that you post the link!!! TIA!

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), September 27, 1999.

Thanks Jerry, what I was trying to say is that I do believe that Andy seems to care about others not getting caught in bad financial straits. Frequent posters may well have diverse motives, but I think Andy genuinely feels some concern and frustration for the economic illiterates such as myself. I don't take everything any human says as gospel, and agree with the mom who posted about not putting all our eggs in one basket. It's fascinating to read the debates going on with Andy, Decker, BigDog and others. What I would like are the top two Economics for Dummies type of books to read. Any suggestions?

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), September 27, 1999.

Mumsie -- I'm not as bullish on gold as Andy is, but I do not follow gold closely. Strictly a layperson. Andy's posts are worth considering on their merits.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), September 27, 1999.

Mumsie,

You might take a look at the first two chapters of Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt. They are on the net, chapter 1 at:

Ch 1

and chapter 2 at:

Ch 2

If they look readable enough, you can get the book at amazon.com, among other places.

It is a general introduction to economics, and does not focus on topics that might be of particular interest as we approach the rollover in the midst of a credit bubble. But it might be a nice start.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 27, 1999.

"Economics in One Lesson" is a classic. AND, very readable. Economics is really common sense. The economists you see at most universities and in government have created a "discipline"(?) that has no relation to reality -- other than its use for control of and f*ing with us peons.

Hazlit, in a very slim and readable book, cuts through the crap. If you are snowed now by what you hear from the mainstream economists, "Economics in One Lesson" will install a snow-blower in your mind.

-- A (A@AisA.com), September 28, 1999.

"Midnight gardening" -- taking valuables and sealing them in lengths of PVC pipe with end-caps, taking a shovel and "planting" them. You can make the pipes fairly watertight -- see your hardware or home and gardening store for details. And for additional protection you can put the stuff into something else sealed befor putting into the tubing. The "Foodsaver" vacuum sealer is a nifty gadget for that. Maybe even sealing a Foodsaver package inside another Foodsaver package might obivate the need for the PVC pipe, but I haven't tried that myself.

-- A (A@AisA.com), September 28, 1999.