You guys prowl the web with incredible facility. I use my travels to fish information from virtually any source that I can. Unfortunately, when I report it, it is, by definition, heresay. On the positive side, it is also off the record. In the following anecdote Ive got to be obtuse here to protect sources. Take it for what its worth. With that said...

During last weeks downturn, one of the streets most visible events was a big downturn in a major blue chip due to a single analysts revision of estimates. This is a blue chip that ought to be very sensitive to global economic downturns. Im watching the shills (Moneyline, CNBC, Cavuto, etc.) and when they interview the analyst, it turns out to be a reasonably close aquaintance from college. In any event, I give him a call, we talk about the professional boost, exposure, etc., etc. and then I pose the big question: Did you include y2k considerations in your pessimistic earnings estimates? Answer: No. Question: Why not? Answer: Dont know whats going to happen, could be non-event, yada, yada, yada. At this point, I give him five minutes of my hardest GI sell which is basically a series of rhetorical questions laced with what I believe to be provocative facts. This includes: (1) What are the chances that the IRS will successfully remediate based upon previous fiascos, what would be the economic effect of them blowing it, and how would this impact [snip company name]s profits? (We get an gasp on my first shot to the body.) (2) Lets assume Germany is ahead of the curve, which they appear not to be, what happens when the inevitable Russian meltdown shuts off the energy supplies estimated to be as much as 40% of Germanys total consumption and how much [snip-product] do you think Germans will buy? (3) What happens if Nigeria, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia -- three high risk countries -- screw the pooch and 50% of our oil imports are jeopardized bearing in mind, of course, that the downturn in the 1970s was triggered by a 5% constriction in flow? (4) What are the odds that enemys of the state (e.g., terrorists) are so stupid and incompetent that they are not locking and loading as we speak? (5) If disruption of Taiwans chip makers can tank the market, what happens when 50-60 other countries that supply us stuff are disrupted (not to mention small companies within the US)?

This was the fastest DGI-to-GI conversion in my short career as a y2k missionary. At one point he says, What the hell should I be doing with my own Fidelity accounts? I told him what Ive done and then asked, Why are YOU asking ME this question since you work for [snip -- massive financial institution name]. When I asked why Wall St. doesnt see this, his answer was really quite predictable: I dont know.

This notion that the big money would see the problem if it were real is simply false.

Regards Dave

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), September 25, 1999

Answers

Come on now. Get real. It's a buying opportunity stupid. We were here last year and you were all wrong! Call your broker and buy that stock. What have you got to lose?

-- rcw (cwiowa@uiowa.edu), September 25, 1999.

Why do they call them analysts if they don't dig out more information than the public does? I thought that the current drop in prices signalled smart, big money on the run, but maybe not. Maybe this really is the dropping dollar, Fed fear, and Taiwan, as they say. Wow. In which case, the market could rise before it really plummets when they finally figure out that business is genuinely going to tank.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 25, 1999.

He who seeks help, seeks destruction; He who offers help, seeks all.

-- Sleestak (land@of the .lost), September 25, 1999.

Dave,

My daughter works on Wall Street, and your anecdote is consistent with what she observes on a daily basis. I've attended a couple of conferences sponsored by Wall Street firms, and have had similar interchanges -- the only difference being that your friend actually experienced a DGI-to-GI conversion. Most of them don't -- instead, they say something along the lines of, "Well, I have great faith that this great country will somehow find a way to make it all work..."

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), September 25, 1999.

Even without factoring in Y2K, the market is going to crash. Why? The financial markets and the public are finally taking notice of the huge balance of trade deficits that the U.S. has been running up all these years. Even worse than the monthly deficits is the accumulated debt that they have created. The world will soon realize that all those dollars are close to worthless. It will become a simple supply and demand situation in which everyone will try to exchange their dollars for something of value.

-- Mr. Adequate (mr@adequate.com), September 25, 1999.

Ed,

The people you speak to on Wall St. are correct. The United States will find a way to make it work. The repercussions of Y2K will not be nearly so serious as once believed, and in any given crisis, Americans will rise to the occasion and find resourceful solutions while making do with interim fixes and contingency plans. History shows us that the human spirit is remarkably resilient and capable of heroic acts in times of crisis and need. That's human ingenuity, not just American ingenuity.

You don't seem to apprehend this basic truth: men and women are able to meet challenges. They meet accidents. They meet disasters. They meet unforeseen events. People finds ways to keep going even when things are rough. That's the life instinct; the survival instinct. In the event of disruptions, humans, as well as social and economic systems, attempt to recover equilibrium as quickly as possible.

Some people cannot cope. They cower and hide, preach fear and fatalism, take advantage of chaos and suffering to exploit their fellows, or escape to the desert. But this is a small minority. Most folks keep on with their lives and pitch in to assist and rebuild their communities in times of need.

-- Robert Galer (Rogaler222@excite.com), September 25, 1999.

You don't seem to apprehend this basic truth: men and women are able to meet challenges. They meet accidents. They meet disasters. They meet unforeseen events.

Hey Boberoo why don't you write to the parents of the children who were incinerated in a pipeline explosion this year after a computer failed. Did they not meet the challenge? Rise to the occasion? Oh maybe they couldn't because they were burnt so badly no one could even fucking touch them when they were found.

I'm all for positive thinking, but lets temper it with realism shall we? I think we'll all work hard to do the best we can, but the truth of the matter is that most people are heading for a big fall and people like you are keeping them moving in the line toward the cliffs. Not everyone is strong and able to Rise to the Challenge like yourself. You forget how many weak and elderly can not without help.

Why don't you talk to the people in NC about meeting the challenge. You are not invincible and neither is America.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), September 25, 1999.

Robert,

Appreciate your patriotic optimism and I agree, but I think it is a question of the time frame. Although there are some cynics on this forum, most of us believe that mankind will eventually come through this thing in flying colors, and will have learned an awful big lesson along the way. But if you do not sense any imminent dangers then I think you are underestimating the scale of this problem, and the years, possibly decades, it will take to clean up the devastation that "hurricane 2000" will leave behind.

-- @ (@@@.@), September 25, 1999.

Gordon,

If there are weak and elderly who need help in a crisis situation, able people will help them. You say you're all for positive thinking, but in the same breath you *predict* a "big fall." That's your belief, not a fact. If you believe we are headed for a "big fall," however you define that, I would hope you could rally your inner resources to begin figuring out to help those around you when the "big fall" hits. Unless you are disabled, mentally ill, or otherwise incapacitated, why shouldn't you?

-- Robert Galer (Rogaler222@excite.com), September 25, 1999.

Positive Mental Attitude.

Draining the swamp.

Alligators.

Ring any bells?

-- Sam (Gunmkr52@aol.com), September 25, 1999.

Robert please go on believing all that. I just got turned onto this Gold thing and it'll take me a few weeks to convert.

A quick question How many people have you ever helped? I don't mean giving a love offering of whatevers in you pocket at church. I mean rolled up your sleves and gotten filthy dirty and stinking cause someone really needed some help? Did you load up your truck with disaster goods and head to N.C. to help with the aftermath of Floyd? Last time there was a bad storm in your neighborhood did you help that neighbor across the street? You know the one you dispise. How many times have you driven past somebody broken down on the side of the road because they didn't look safe? How about the guy in the rain at the grocery who needs a jump cause his car is dead? do you always help him?

Americans don't help each other we are too busy. We are not going to pull together for the common good because our attitude is me first.

And most feel like the government should do something.

-- JOHNNY (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), September 25, 1999.

Mr. Galer you may have good intentions and a healthy dose of patriotism, but you have completely missed the boat here. For the last year, in many cases longer, we have been trying to raise public awareness to the potentially lethal situation the American public will shortly be confronted with. All this effort has resulted in perhaps a 2% increase in the number of people who are taking responsibility for their lives and their families lives, as opposed to snickering the problem away which has been the response of 95plus% of the population as a whole.

Now how do you propose that 4% of the population prepare to feed the 96% who are unwilling, unable, or just too damned lazy to prepare for themselves? I'm not independently wealthy, very few of us are. The preps I have done so far just for my immediate family have beeen a constant strain on our financial rescourses and are still far from what I would call "comfort level". Now if Bill Gates would generously give me a million dollars, or a billion, I would be more than happy to quit my job and spend the rest of the year buying as much food, medicine, and water storage as could be obtained, but I just don't see it happening.

When the government is faced with the choice of allocating fuel between the military, the public, and the trucking industry just to deliver food and water for subsistence living how are people going to bget to work to earn money? If the people can't get to work, have nothing to work on or with if they do get there how they gonna pay the bills? If the bills aint paid what happens to the banks? It really isn't rocket science to figure this thing out, just have to take off those rose colored glasses and turn back the old history book to 1929.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), September 25, 1999.

Robert:

You WERE correct in 1929-1935. People reached down, grabbed their bootstraps and someone else and they BOTH pulled themselves up by the bootstraps. In case you haven't noticed it, people's attitudes have changed. In 1929, taking a handout was "un-manly". In 1999, acording to the guys jivin' on the street, nuthin' happens 'til i get the check. According to the guys who have just made Partner at Jones- Sanders-Loeser Revis and Pogue, the world has FINALLY recognized their worth, and now everything will come to them with no more effort. the world, which has owed them so much for so long, is FINALLY making good on the markers.

Is there any difference here between the two groups? Not really, only a couple decimal places. BOTH are of the opinion that they are OWED, it just depends on the yardstick being used where the decimal point goes.

I haven't seen a "can do!" attitude out of my age-mates in a LOT of years. And I'm a CENTER baby-boomer.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 25, 1999.

When the banks close...and they will.... because of cascading cross defaults, then NOBODY WILL GET THEIR PAY CHECK!!! Nobody goes to work without a pay check! Americans will not and cannot rebuild, until they get a pay check!!!

You can count on it!!!!

-- freddie (freddie@thefreeloader.com), September 25, 1999.

Mr. Galer: Bad computer code does not care.

97 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), September 25, 1999.

Dave, excellent 5 questions to ask just about anyone. I hope you don't mind if I print this out and use it myself...!

(grin)

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), September 25, 1999.

If I 'apprehend' Robert Galer correctly, I'm buying 50 more Mapleleafs and some laying hens....500 gals. more diesel too.

-- Charles R. (chuck_roast@trans.net), September 25, 1999.

You can bet that the big money on Wall Street get it. The top traders are the most iconoclastic bunch of fellows I know and they think for themselves and they more often than not avoid so called analysts' garbage which are meant more as marketing material for their firms retail customers.

The problem for them is not how to avoid losing $ during the y2k scenario but how to profit and profit without becoming a scapegoat during the witchhunt of 2000.

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.anon), September 25, 1999.

Roger Galer, just a little reminder --- When I get a hungry, I get mean and dangeous. And since most of my life has been a real physical scatch just to pay the bills, hope you don't tempt me by getting away from police protection with anything of value.

-- CapableOfDoingIt (123@4585457.com), September 25, 1999.

As someone mrntioned, the country did survive the 1930's. However, it was an extremely unpleasant experience for many people. My father lost his job at an automobile factory in Michigan and went back to his home town in Tennessee to work on a small farm doing manual labor for one dollar per day. I think many people survived that period because they either owned or worked on small farms. That will not be the case next year.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), September 25, 1999.

This time next year I will be working on my small farm, feeding chickens, collecting eggs, milking my cow, and churning butter, grinding corn meal, and taking it all down to the corner and selling it for birdshot and grandma's silver service.

-- chicken farmer (chicken-farmer@ y2k.farm), September 25, 1999.

RG:

Americans certainly rose to the occasion during WWII. After Pearl Harbor we took one PRUDENT step after another which finally lead up D-Day and victory YEARS LATER. Yes, each one of those bloody steps depended on our 'can do' attitude, but without great leadership at every level, massive co-operation, and careful planning we would not have succeeded.

If nothing else, Y2k has exposed the soft underbelly of extremely poor planning, and dismal leadership on virtually every level, and that's why we are headed for a calamity of biblical proportions. In other words, the American 'can do' attitude has been untapped so far and now it's too late to avoid the consequences.

In the new millennium life will be unrecognizable and there will be suffering on a wholesale scale. This calamity will then force us to and rekindle that exquisite belief in ourselves that has shaped our history. We will not only solve Y2k, but much more importantly, re-establish the values that created this great country.

-- Dr. Roger Altman (rogaltman@aol.com), September 25, 1999.

IMHO- most Americans-the only nationality I can speak with any knowledge of- are incredibly spoiled. they are clueless as to the great wealth they have access to and that which is squandered daily. The waste in this country is incredible. Our pets eat better than people do in some other countries. And still it is never enough....

One small vignette- though a disturbing one. At the Farmers' Market the other day- quite a few customers bemoaned the short supply of tomatoes- how there were hardly any left.....And there were tomatoes there- heirlooms, hybrids, cherry tomatoes- several flats of tomatoes between the vendors- most even certified organic! but- not the several flats per vendor found in early August- but this is late September- in Central Vermont!! But the customers- who were only going to purchase one, perhaps two or three tomatoes apiece- expected- rather demanded, that hundreds be available for them to make their selection from. And so- not having that, they were disapointed and moaned and bitched and complained. And had no appreciation for all the labor that brought these tomatoes there in the first place- and certainly no appreciation for the lovely tomatoes that were there- as well as the lettuce and spinach and carrots, peppers, squash, potatoes, onions, leeks, beets and all the rest.

And I thought to myself- surely we are going to get it. We have become a people so spoiled and lacking in appreciation- and so undeserving of all the riches we have in our lives. To paraphrase that old song- "we don't know what we've got til it's gone".....

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), September 25, 1999.

My observations about resilience stem not so much from patriotism as from a sort of Darwinian observation that people adapt to circumstances to survive. Diversity is a good example. The more skills a person develops, the greater his chances of finding employment and increasing his independence.

Most people find a niche, get comfortable in it, then work to maintain it. When disruptions occur, of course they will protect their selves and their families first. But it's also to their best--- even selfish---interests to protect their communities and neighbors as well. Especially if they have invested in it: bought property, built a business, or established social prestige and responsibility. So they'll work to preserve the status quo of their greater environment. This might include helping out at their church, at the school their children attend, at the golf club where they socialize, etc. They seek to reassert that which they have grown accustomed to. If it means repairing or rebuilding, they will. Everyone will be taking care of his or her business, patching things up, implementing fixes, and life will roll on. I'm not saying there won't be glitches or accidents due to Y2K, even serious accidents. But I am suggesting that we will, as a species, be able to cope with them and survive any such disruptions with flying colors.

I don't buy the idea that Americans are fundamentally different now than they were fifty years ago. Values have changed somewhat, culturally and socially, but at heart people still want the basics: good health care, excellent educational opportunities, decent pay for honest work, and safe, productive communities. So if disaster strikes, folks will do what they can to protect what they've come to enjoy. It's simply not to their advantage to abandon the community that supports the lifestyle they've grown accustomed to.

-- Robert Galer (Rogaler222@excite.com), September 25, 1999.

Gawd, are you frigging STUPID??? The computers are going to croak, and you rattle on about good old fashioned values!! It doesn't matter what people do or say if they live in a major city and the power goes out and stays out for two months! It doesn't matter when a municipal water/sewer system fails!! If the banking system crumbles, its all over but the shouting!

Good, honorable acts will be there, no doubt. But they may well be fruitless. And will make no real difference.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), September 25, 1999.

Robert.

It's a dog eat dog world. I see it every single day. I see waste and greed endemic in this society. WTSHTF there will be millions and millions of ANGRY people - and they have a right to be angry because they've been consistently lied to and sold down the river.

Anyone who has studied this subject should be able to see this. have you read Roberto Vacca's book? Ravi Batra's latest?

IMHO less than a tenth of one percent are truly aware of what y2k has the potential to do to this country. This miniscule proportion of folks can do NOTHING to change the outcome - that is a foregone conclusion.

I will personally help all those that I can when the time comes. that's all I can do. I will be in a position to help because I have prepared. How will the other 99.9% be able to help when they are hungry and thirsty and have no money?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 25, 1999.

RG:

I find myself agreeing with everything you say, but I see no evidence that the Y2k problem has been mitigated. If you have FACTS to the contrary -- other than our well known 'can do' attitude when things get tough -- by all means present it. If you don't have anything to add to your rather glib reliance on our historical achievements then let's agree to disagree about the severity of Y2k and move on.

-- Dr. Roger Altman (rogaltman@aol.com), September 25, 1999.

RG -

Species-level discussions are really irrelevant at this point, and I'm not sure why you bother to put them forward. If you currently live in parts of eastern North Carolina, you are probably not very concerned about the species. You are likely to be simply trying to get access to clean water and/or power, without which you will soon cease to be concerned about anything at all.

I'm glad you have faith in the species. I do, too, but its continuation is of less interest to me than that of my family and other loved ones. I also have serious concerns about the choices and reactions of large numbers of individuals in my locality.

Your faith is admirable. Now, what's your plan? If you have none, then your faith is simply an excuse not to take any action. Wishing very hard and thinking happy thoughts will not fix any code, nor will it provide for those who need solid, serious help.

Be well.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 26, 1999.

How can you reach down and pull up your boot straps when there's rioting in the streets? I'll be pulling on my SKS and plugging a few of them. I'm not depending on my neighbors to be kind hearted and help each other out, that's why I have prepared for myself and family. During the Depression there were family farms, some people didn't even think there was a Depression because they grew their own food. I planted a garden this summer, I was the only one around here that did so. I shared the tomatoes, and even had a neighbor turn them down because they didn't like tomatoes! I have no faith in people to be what you expect them to be. If you go around thinking that, you'll surely be disappointed all the time. Get real! Do your trust your government?

-- Rasty (Rasty@bulldogg.xcom), September 26, 1999.

Robert;

I admire your position but, think of who you are dealing with here. This is a far different breed than it was in the 30's. People today have NO clue how to do without anything. Plant a garden, can the food, catch a fish, shoot a deer, or even count change without the computer telling them how much! The sad part is ,that there is now notime to learn/relearn these forgotten skills. How do you Get UNDER THE HOOD AND FIX IT, if you don't have ANY tools?

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), September 26, 1999.

RG - should not this can do attitude also apply to managers, CEO's, government agency heads, and political leaders? When faced with the problem of Y2K they diddled, dallied and delayed until it was too late. Our leaders could have led a "can do" war effort starting a couple of years ago, urging EVERYONE to remediate and make contingency plans... instead of doing everything they could to convince the population that there was no problem and no need to prepare. We are STILL being told that the worst thing we could do is prepare for more than a long weekend. The sick, weak and elderly you want the forum readers to pitch in and help?... why do you not aim your questions at Koskinen, Clinton et. al. who are STILL urging them NOT to get extra meds as a contingency plan. Our leaders CLEARLY see the problem as judged by their actions (not their words) yet they do everything they can to keep the population uninformed and unprepared. It was THEIR responsibility, not mine, though I have done everything I could to inform family, friends, coworkers and community of the risk ahead.

Your can do attitude seems more appropriate to a Disney made-for-TV movie than real life. Do some research into the aftereffects of some real natural or man-made disasters. Good will and elbow grease doesn't always solve everything in time for the screen credits.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 26, 1999.