* * * 19990924 Friday ... 98 days to Y2K ...

 

I attended the "Y2K seminar" at Oakland University last night. Seated next to me was Franklin Frith, who tape-recorded most of the presentations as well as the question and answer session. I defer all details about this "seminar" to Franklin and his tape.

Overall, the "seminar" was a well-honed spin job by corporate and government shills. With the exception of the credit union sponsor-representative that needed her carefully crafted script, these Y2K "expert" folks are getting so good at what they do, they don't need notes! The half-truths and lies come rolling from their lips like so many gargoyle water fountains statues. The public Y2K dog and pony shows are becoming bewilderingly pathetic.

In this item I comment on the subsequent newspaper story that appeared today in The Oakland Press, by Diana Dillaber Murray (transcribed below).

My extemporaneous comments are inserted (in brackets, "[", -Italicized-"]") between paragraphs.

Regards, Bob Mangus

 

* * *

< www.theoaklandpress.com >

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 24, 1999 PAGE A-7

Y2K Panel reassures residents

By DIANA DILLABER MURRAY

Of The Oakland Press

Hoarding food and medicine just before the New Year could create problems, leaving some people with more than they need and others in desperate straits, cautioned members of a panel at a Y2K conference.

[The term "stockpile" was never used during the 90 minutes of presentations and 20 minutes of answering questions; Senators Bennett and Dodd have recommended citizens prudently "stockpile" for likely disruptions.

Panelists claimed ignorance to the fact that 70% of insulin used in the U.S. comes from overseas.

There are common distraction themes, spin strategies and "scripted" responses emerging from government and corporate "Y2K experts." This trend is intended to prevent public panic in spite of escalating evidence of failing systems and contingency plans. Too many organizations have not done enough, are not doing enough, or done nothing, to prevent catastrophic disruptions to the public health and safety services (i.e., electric power, water/sewerage, telecommunications and financial systems) essential to daily living in our societies today.]

Members of a panel representing water, gas, electric, food, county services and emergency management said they have repaired, replaced and tested all their computerized operations and expect no problems when the calendar turns over from Dec. 31, 1999 to Jan. 1, 2000.

[In fact, some members of the panel said they were still working on repairing, replacing and testing, expecting to be completed by December 1.]

However, should there be any glitches, there is no need to panic because all of the affected agencies have contingency plans, officials told an audience of about 100 at a Y2K Seminar on Thursday at Oakland University.

[Keep in mind the fact that those so-called business contingency or continuity plans are not proving to be worth the ostensibly good intentions or paper they're written on (e.g., City of Detroit, NC DMV, Hershey, etc.). So much for due diligence.]

Wilma Wells, vice president of finance at T&C Credit Union, said people should keep track of their bank statements and take out only what they normally would for a long holiday weekend.

Money is safer in the bank where it is insured by the federal government that at home under the mattress, Wells said.

Wells also cautioned against fraud. She said scam artists already are taking advantage of people's fears by offering such services as holding money in a Y2K-safe account.

[Ms. Wells sings the "Y2K Sermon" swan song¹ with a warbler's eloquence. She regurgitated the deceptive canard that people keep legally useless statements.²]

The seminar was sponsored by T&C Credit Union and co-sponsored by The Oakland Press, The Macomb Daily, the Daily Tribune of Royal Oak and WJR radio. Dick Haefner, news director at WJR, was moderator.

[While Mr. Haefner was a svelte MC, my perception throughout the evening was one of a smarmy mutual collaboration between media and panelists. It was cutesy to a fault.]

Represented were Consumers Energy; Detroit Edison; Detroit Water System, which supplies many Oakland communities; Oakland County; Spartan Stores, Inc.; St. Joseph Mercy; Oakland Hospital; and Mercy Health Services.

[Notably absent at the dais was Ameritech. Telecommunications companies have collaboratively decided to not participate in any public Y2K discussions. This strategy precludes embarrassing exposure to the fact that it is impossible to do Y2K (end-to-end) testing of their real-time networks without producing major inconveniences (outages) to customers.

While the telecommunications industry asserts that some 500 telecommunications network components have been successfully tested in an East Coast lab environment, January 1, 2000 will be the only real test of the production telecommunication infrastructure.]

All of the agencies said they will be fully staffed Dec. 31, some with as many as 2,000 employees, ready for any emergency.

[While this is well and good, Y2K "Fix On Failure" (FOF) strategies are bogus. That is, purporting those Y2K failures in complex systems, having consumed weeks, months and--in many instances--years to fix with the infrastructure fully intact, will be completed in 3-7 days is absurd and morally wrong.

Ask the logical question: Why don't these agencies just do their Y2K "fixes" in the next 3-to-7 days and be done with it? The answer, of course, is that it cannot be done!]

Most will have generators in place in the event there is a glitch, so they can keep operating.

[Generators that will have enough fuel--unless declared emergencies confiscate their resources--ranging as little as 3 days and as many as 90. The glaring disparity of contingencies exposes the quality and validity of perceptions of anticipated severity between segments of the critical infrastructure society depends on.]

Gail Novak, director of emergency management for Oakland County, said her department is planning for the transition to 2000, treating it like any other emergency situation such as a power outage or long snow storm [sic].

[Emergency management agencies, at every level have, have irrevocably and irreparably bought into the phony Y2K "3-day winter storm" scenario, rendering these organizations completely ineffectual. It is disingenuous, to a prurient perversion, to construct the analogy of a "storm" (of typical severity) and malfunctioning hardware and software components.

Snow and ice "storms" damage exposed spice-able electrical and telecommunication wiring, and physical water and gas pipes. Indeed, routine and relatively easy to fix.

Y2K, on the other hand, affects electronic components within these systems. Difficult to identify and--more than not--requiring replacement of hardware devices (the most difficult) and/or software coding fixes.

If the very infrastructure required to make hardware fixes is destabilized or disabled (i.e., brownouts or blackouts), how on earth can engineering and manufacturing sectors be expected to produce these hardware, or manual work-around, components?

Again, if the infrastructure required to make software fixes is destabilized or disabled, how can software engineers be expected to use computers to produce functional software?

Management and political types are avoiding the potential reality of these unique, and highly potential, Y2K scenarios.]

But Janice McCoury, of Rochester Hills, a senior at Oakland University and mother of three, said she plans to stock up for three weeks, in case there is a glitch at the same time there is a snowstorm.

[Ms. McCoury may be better advised to "stock up" enough to carry her family through to the early harvest (late June, in Michigan) of 2000. There will be multitudes of Y2K-induced infrastructure glitches for (brave) personnel to deal with.]

She said many people don't believe the experts because they are hearing on some radio talk shows there will be a bigger disaster than experts are telling them.

[Critical-thinking people should maintain healthy skepticism about what they hear from self-reporting/authorized "experts" and corporate-owned media. The so-called "experts" are paid by vested interests--stock-based corporations and tax-based government agencies--that have much to lose, materially in terms of financial and political power.

All test results and contingency plans should be available for public evaluation and critique. As a society, there is too much morally at stake--survival based on current infrastructure carrying capacity³ --to passively leave the fate of many millions of citizens in the hands of corporations and governments.

Barring incompetence and psychological infirmity (i.e., abject denial), prudent people should act on personal judgements and self-interest based on objective facts and logical deduction.]

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  Posted at 7:03 p.m. EDT Friday, August 13, 1999 (at the Inside Banking Web site)

Full text of the Y2K bank sermon

ABA has developed this generic ``Y2K sermon'' for bankers to share with members of the clergy as a way to calm peoples' concerns over the Jan. 1 date change. A sermon is a very personal means of communication. This one cannot possibly cover all religions or speaking styles, nor is it intended to. However, by sharing this sermon with a minister, priest or rabbi, you can generate interest in the Y2K topic and enlist their help in calming peoples' fears and concerns. Their own words on Y2K will carry much clout within their spiritual communities.

 

Thinking about Y2K: Moses, Orson Welles and Bill Gates

Most of us carry important dates around with us, dates that are indelibly written in our memories. Our own birthday, for example, and the birthdays of loved ones. And yes, even the death of a loved one.

There are other dates that many of us share in common. December 25. March 17, when everyone in the world is Irish. July 4th. December 7, 1941. And my personal favorite, April 15.

Then there is January 1, 2000. That date's been written and talked about a great deal, too. I'll get to that in a moment.

But first, let's go back to an earlier date, almost 61 years ago. October 30, 1938. It's Sunday evening, 8 p.m. in the East. The next day will be Halloween. The place is Grovers Mill, New Jersey. And there in Grovers Mill, as tens of thousands of radio listeners across the country tune in, a brave local militia is fighting a losing battle against invaders from outer space. Well, sort of.

Many of those listeners thought they were hearing an account of an actual alien invasion of the East Coast of the United States. They were listening, of course, to a radio play by Orson Welles and his Mercury Theater on the Air -- the ``War of the Worlds.'' Those who tuned in late didn't hear the opening announcement. They missed an important kernel of information -- this was a radio drama. A piece of fiction realistically and cleverly played out as though it were actually happening.

Orson Welles tricked a lot of people with his little Halloween treat that evening. In Indianapolis, a woman ran into a church and screamed ``New York is destroyed. It's the end of the world.''

In Brevard, North Carolina, five college students fainted. Scores of people in Providence, Rhode Island, frantically called the electric company and told them to shut off all the lights before they were discovered.

A woman in Boston told the Globe she could actually see the fire on the horizon. Which is a pretty good trick when you're in Boston and the fire is in New Jersey. A man in San Francisco volunteered to fight. A woman in Pittsburgh attempted suicide.

October 30, 1938. If you hadn't tuned in early enough, you didn't get the right story. Or as one East Coast newspaper (Washington Post) says in its advertising: ``If you don't get it, you don't get it.''

A lot of people didn't ``get it'' on October 30, 1938. And when I think of Orson Welles' famous radio broadcast, I think of January 1, 2000. Or as some people like to refer to it, Y2K.

And the question for each of us is: When Y2K arrives, will we have the full story? Or will we have tuned in too late to get that important kernel of information, as many did on the night of October 30, 1938?

Will we ``get it?''

Let's talk about Y2K for a moment. How did we get where we are today? What's ahead? And what does it really mean?

I doubt that even the wildly inventive mind of Orson Welles could have dreamed up a fantasy as improbable, yet as convincing, as Y2K. Who would have thought, after all, that America could be done in not by aliens from outer space, but by a bug in a computer?

How did it happen? Well, as many of us now know, those early computer programmers had to work with memory-challenged computers. The first IBM PC back in 1981 didn't even come with a hard drive, like today's PCs. In fact, today's PCs have two-thousand times the memory of the first IBM PC -- for a lot less money, I might add.

But the roots of the problem go back even further. Computer programmers in the 1950s and 1960s had to do with less, not more, memory. So they took a shortcut. They used a two-digit number for the year instead of a four-digit number. That sounded like a great idea back in, say, 1965. It doesn't sound so great in 1999. Actually, force of habit led many programmers to continue to use the two digits into the early 1990s, even though data storage was no longer a problem.

Nothing lives so long as a bad idea.

I called it a ``shortcut.'' In fact, it was a multi-billion-dollar foul-up. Governments, businesses, airlines, banks, power companies and institutions around the globe have been spending billions and billions of dollars to upgrade their computer systems and make sure everything goes smoothly on Midnight, December 31.

Will things go smoothly?

You've heard the dire warnings, the off-the-wall forecasts and the downright silly predictions. Life insurance companies, they say, could bill us for coverage for the past 100 years. Airplanes won't get off the ground. And that could be the good news. Our bank accounts will show zero. Our mortgages will require another 100 years of payments. Hospital monitoring equipment will stop monitoring. The lights will go out. The phones will fail. We'll be plunged into a deep, cold winter without heat, electricity, money or -- worst of all, pizza delivery.

And yes, some of us will report actually seeing a fire on the horizon.

Grovers Mill all over again. Orson Welles would be pleased.

Quite a few jokes have been made about Y2K as well. Perhaps you've heard that Bill Gates has just announced the official release date for the new Windows 2000 software.

It's to be the second quarter of 1901.

Let me be clear: I don't believe any of the truly bad stuff is going to happen. Sure, there will be glitches. A financial record here and there will need to be updated. Some phone calls may not go through. The occasional traffic signal may not work. But will anyone seriously believe that he or she might have another 100 years left to pay on the mortgage? Lights may go out in a few places. I believe most of those problems will be isolated. Food shortages? Perhaps an item here or there will be in short supply temporarily. Especially if we all panic and run out to buy milk the week before.

But as one phone company likes to say: ``On Jan. 1, the sun will rise, you will continue to breathe and you will have a dial tone.''

I'm not worried about America's ability to solve the technical problems of Y2K. But there is something that does worry me: misinformation. The kind of misinformation that led some people on the night of October 30, 1938 to panic. The kind of panic that comes from not knowing. Not understanding. Not getting it.

I encourage you to understand Y2K. To understand what will happen. What can happen. And what probably won't happen on January 1st. Read about Y2K. Know what is expected. None of us can predict the future, but there are a lot of very well informed people saying that we will get through this.

It's especially important that we -- as members of our community, believers in God and members of the family of faith -- set the example. We want to go into the new Millennium with hope, eagerness and faith in this new Century of promise. We don't want to be crouched in our basements with candles, matches and guns.

There are, after all, two ways to cross the Red Sea. With Moses, who with God's help, led the children of Israel into a bright, hopeful future. Or with Pharaoh, who in trying to preserve the old, hurled his chariots, his officers and his army into the sea.

Think about the effects of our actions on those around us. Is it wise to have little extra food on hand? Sure. Some bottled water? Perhaps. Some cash? Well, it is a long holiday weekend. Most experts say there won't be food or water shortages on January 1, 2000. They suggest that families lay in a few days supply of food and water, just in case.

Things will work. Hospitals will be open. Police and fire departments will be prepared. Power companies will be fully staffed. Banks will keep your money safe. They're backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the FDIC; and the federal banking regulators have examined every bank in the country for Y2K readiness. The airlines will be ready. And governments at every level will be prepared. Whatever you do, don't bury your money in the backyard. It's safest in a bank, where it is protected and insured by the federal government.

So in preparing for January 1, 2000, do what you can. Trust God. Trust those you love. Be informed. And take a few practical steps. Save copies of your financial records. Keep a few days' worth of cash on you. Have a little extra food and water around the house if that makes you feel better. Keep an adequate supply of medicines and over-the-counter drugs on hand. If it's a prescription medicine that you're required to take, put aside enough for a few weeks. Check out your personal computer to see if it's Y2K-ready. Make sure there are fresh batteries in your flashlights. Keep some candles on hand. If you have a fireplace, put some dry wood aside. If you have an outdoor grill, make sure you have some fuel on hand. But don't bring the grill in the house. Carbon-monoxide kills. Put some gas in the family car. In other words, do the same things you might do if you knew a storm was passing through the area. That's what the Red Cross advises.

It might also be a good opportunity to get to know your neighbors a little better. Talk to them about what they're doing to get ready. Remake those acquaintances. Friends and family can help one another when problems occur.

And, of course, be prepared for con artists. They will most certainly be out in force between now and January 1. Watch out for telephone scams especially. Don't let someone tell you that your money will be safest in their ``offshore'' bank. Don't believe anyone who wants you to buy a $175.00 survival guide, or food and supplies for a family of four for two weeks -- for just $5,000.

In other words, prepare as best you can. Then trust God for the rest.

Most important, we should understand what Y2K really means. It's a computer headache that experts are working to fix right now, not an alien invasion of New Jersey. And not the end of the world. As members of God's community, we can and should play a leadership role in helping our own families, friends and community prepare for Y2K. By understanding it. And by not being afraid. We want to go into the next Century as God intended, with hope, knowledge and the promise of a bright future.

And the best way to do that is with the right information. Knowledge. And faith. So that when we wake up on January 1, we can be confident that our money will be safe, the lights will work and we'll still get a dial tone.

And I'll see you here on Sunday, January 2nd.

 

2 Paraphrasing from "Confidence Game: What Nobody's Telling You About Y2K And Why", by Dr. Mark A. Ludwig:

Recommendations from officials and politicians that people keep paper account statements from their FDIC-insured financial institution as protection against problems with Y2K are fraudulent, untrue and deceitful. FDIC insurance regulations and policy explicitly state that such account statements have no legal status whatsoever. It's the financial institution's computer records that are legal.

Page 11 of the Financial Institution Employee's Guide to Deposit Insurance, put out by the FDIC, states that: "The FDIC uses the deposit account records of the institution to determine both the identity of the owner(s) and the right and capacity in which the funds are held." It states specifically that:

"Deposit account records include :

• Signature cards,
• Certificates of deposit or passbooks,
• Account ledgers and computer records that relate to the bank's deposit taking function,"

Here's the FDIC description of non-records:

"For the purpose of determining legal ownership of accounts, deposit account records do not include :

• Account statements,
• Deposit slips,
• Items deposited and cancelled checks."

Your records do not represent deposit records. Officially, your records have no legal standing and cannot prove you have an account at any financial institution.

The FIDC's document A Bank Customer's Y2K To-Do List, posted at their Web site, has the subtle truth in text for all to see. They advise keeping good records of all financial transactions. The purpose, however, is not to assist the FDIC if a financial institution goes under. The unvarnished statement says "These records will help your bank and you quickly resolve any errors that may occur." That is, resolution as prescribed by official FDIC rules and regulations. Nothing more! Your paper records offer no protection, whatsoever.

 

3 In this context, "carrying capacity" refers to the ability (capacity) of, and requirement that, the infrastructure support large urban cities and underlying infrastructures (e.g., electrical power, water and sewerage, transportation, finance, medical, police, fire, et al). The premise is that should any one of these infrastructure components become substantially or materially diminished, the entire urban-metropolitan systems are diminished in the ability to sustain the existing quality of life for the quantity (number) of people today.

To state it bluntly: Should any component of the critical infrastructure be crippled (materially disabled) for more than 3-to-7 days without properly prepared (stockpiled) urban populations, horrendously catastrophic consequences will be experienced by real people.

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), September 24, 1999

Answers

Robert:

Thanks for your continuing updates. I'm glad I'm on the other side of the state...

I can hear the frustration in your writing. Hang in there.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), September 24, 1999.

All right. I confess. I am responsible for the Y2K problem. I bought more than my share of canned goods. I shouldn't have. I'm sorry. Next time I will trust you more. You are only interested in my welfare. I know that now.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 24, 1999.

Robert: I attended a Y2K meeting in Ionia ( Mich ) last night. The makeup of the panal was the same as the one you attended. Everyone on the panal said the same thing. No problems here in Ionia. Or, if there are one or two small problems they will be fixed right away. Over and over they stated Don't take your money out of the bank, no need to worry about anything. They did NOT even tell people to prepair for a three day storm. No mention of Red Cross or FEMA guidelines. They also stated that there is no need to worry about the five ( 5 ) Correctional Facilities in this area. They made me feel so much better I only filled one cart when I went to Sam's today.

-- Mike 9.5 (sheadwor@ionia.k12.mi.us), September 24, 1999.