It's true. I wrote on this forum several months ago, NOT that I expected panic (in fact, I said I didn't and have said that since early in 1999), but that I did expect an unpredictable tightening of supplies. I urged folks to complete all their preps by the end of August, at the latest.

OK, wrong, at least on the whole. Very regrettably wrong, because of its implications for the now-assured unreadiness of the nation.

But when will you finish your preps? December 31st? If you're not going to prep further, fine, but make that an active decision, not the result of passive paralysis.

At the meta level, here is what you should do:

1. Decide how much cash and/or barter, investment or other strategies and tactics you need post 1/1/2000 and execute them now.

2. Decide how much "security" you need for how long (everything from ammo to water, food, medicines, communications and related supplies)and for how many people and complete obtaining it now.

3. If bugging out or evacuation may be a necessity, devise reasonable plans now and drill them. If you need help from others, ask, don't wait. OTOH, don't fantasize or fear events you can't control (global or local).

At the micro-level, keep taking all the small steps you can about the "macro" stuff and don't sweat the stuff you can't (for instance, because you can't afford something).

If you are a Christian, your first preparation should always have been spiritual (others can extrapolate to their own convictions). If that wasn't or isn't true, your physical preparations will only be a minor support.

I will make another prediction in this thread, that December will be a very difficult month to conclude your preparations. It might even be a difficult month to do your grocery shopping, not because of Y2K failures but because of a final, national lurch towards having something on the shelves.

Most probably, the next six months, minimally, are going to be quite confusing and far too interesting. Whether Y2K is a BITR or TEOTWAWKI, the die is already cast -- we're just too far short of eternity's time-line to see the results .... quite .... yet.

If you let yourself be a deer caught in the headlights of the posturing on this forum, you may regret it later. Use the forum for support and encouragement but not as a substitute for action.

Ask yourself this question: if I only had two more calendar weeks to finish the three areas listed above, could I? Don't congratulate yourself for what you've done at this point -- instead, don't procrastinate when YOU claim to tell others that Y2K deserves intense preparation. The items you didn't take time to secure or plan now (want one of many? how about meaningful first-aid preps?) may be the ones you bitterly regret next year.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), September 23, 1999

Answers

Big Dog, I think that most of us who GI continue to be astounded at our friends, neighbors and relatives who don't grasp the interconnectedness of a faulty oil control valve in Kuwait and reduced employment in middle America.

Given the dinner table conversation I have had with friends over the last few weeks, I have decided to stop bringing a bottle of wine as a present. I am now creating a small basket with a manual can opener, a couple of cans of kidney beans, tomatoes, some rice and a can of pineapple and a bottle of water. It makes a point. Course it could also put a crimp in my social life!

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), September 23, 1999.

Don't forget to add a gun and plenty of ammo to your basket. Your friends are gonna need it!!

-- (underdog@tristan.org), September 23, 1999.

And note that Big Dog's prediction, although "wrong", erred on the side of caution: People who completed their preps early are now twiddling their thumbs. Big deal!!! Better than having been wrong the other way and have to be scrounging around for something that you may not be able to find, and if you do find, may cost ten times what it should!!!!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

When I decided to prepare for Y2K, I made it a policy that everything I did would be double-function, that is, merely an extension of the life I have now. I already live in the country, so I didn't have to move. I always was interested in ham radio, so why not now? I have always enjoyed a garden, so why not expand it? There will always be more hurricanes, why not get really ready?

This double-function aspect has enabled me to justify preps and the expense both to myself and my spouse. If y2k is no big deal, we are fine, no bridges burned or irrevocable decisions made. We are ready both for disruption and to continue life as usual.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), September 23, 1999.

Those of us who have also predicted a fall run on items should keep a wary eye on the stock market as the country full of DGI's may start thinking about things (& y2k possibility) if the market finally goes south in a hurry. If this happens, make some quick 5 AM runs to the market for final items before the sheeple ram the front door! I'm mostly done, but hope things will hold til mid or late Dec. so I can get some last minute taters and fresh fruit.

...got Guavas?

-- churchorganist (swedemusic@webtv.net), September 23, 1999.

I thought we'd start seeing shortages by 9/1/99, if not before. I'm still prepping, although I feel more comfortable now.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

Due to some hard times caused by Y2K problems of the SAP kind, our prepping slowed down in August and grinded to a stop in September. I won't be able to get back to prepping until about the end of October, so I am grateful that I didn't delay through the summer. I'm also grateful that the supply side hasn't tightened up like it had at the end of last winter. I may yet get a wood stove and if I can still do so, I will be much relieved-- especially with the unexpected cold spell that now seems to be suggesting that a hard winter is ahead.

It has been somewhat of a testing to have to sit on my hands as it were, and not make a hard run toward the finish line. I'm sure some of you out there can appreciate that feeling of not being able to prep as fast or as much as you think prudent. I'll admit that I wanted to be mostly done by September as a dot mil had personally recommended, so Big Dog wasn't alone in his sense of urgency. And I think it makes sense not to be hand trucking cases of food from car trunk to front door in November and December; the neighbors are going to remember this sighting much better than if you had done it earlier in the year.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 23, 1999.

I am continue to prep every week. Adding a little here and there. I have not completed my prep but the more I add the better I feel.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), September 23, 1999.

Git,

Finishing my basic preps, I can now concentrate on comfort food, which relaxs me. I'm glad I prepared when I did. I am able to avoid a lot of anxiety which is better for my health and quality of life. I've lurked around the forum since 7/98. I appreciate each and every one of your posts. I'm aware that the best of leaders/administrators make the right decisions 80% of the time. You have been a great leader. Thank you for your time, effort and caring.

-- Leslie (***@***.net), September 23, 1999.

We are primarily done. Am buying some comfort food such as cookies and hard candies. Need to buy butter/margerine/mayonise at "last minute"...... if I can figure out when that is. Yesterday I talked with my broker. We had a few little stocks left and our Roths, and I wanted to sell it all. He had just done a pollyanna interview with a newspaper reporter re y2k. When I called he said, I was thinking of you yesterday and when I asked why, he said,' because you were the first one to ever tell me about y2k". So we talked and he said, well everything he reads says 'no problem". So I filled up his email with stuff. This morning he called and said he and wife were headed to WalMart to stock up. LOL In the meantime his interview will be published. He wanted me to talk with the reporter and I said, absolutely no!! I am not getting caught up in that at this late date.

Taz...who has lost a lot of trust in 'gubmint' and is totally disgusted with the sheeple.

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

After slowly stocking up since Oct of last year, we finally took an inventory last week. After calculating how much each of us could eat under such circumstances, we came to the conclusion that we had much less than we thought we did. Only about 2 months worth. Part of the problem was that I had been buying mainly canned goods. Dinty Moores, tuna, big chunk chickens, ravioli. (and canned fruits and veggies)While they taste great and are easy to prepare, I had neglected to consider what constitutes a meal for a family of four, three meals a day seven days a week, even under rationing conditions. So...I did a quick revision of my prep strategy, and ran out today to buy a couple of huge 50lb bags of rice, beans, and giant boxes of quick oats. More food cheaper. It added another two months to our supplies just like that.

I fully understand now the concept of rice and beans :)

Inventory and meal calculations...very important!!

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), September 23, 1999.

When I read about some of the food purchases listed, I think, "Is that all"?

Then I realize, "Wow, I've gone off the deep end."

No wonder my mother thinks I'm crazy.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 23, 1999.

Most people are still oblivious. Was having a chat with some nice older folks who have a vacation home up here. I mentioned that I surely hoped they had planned to be able to be up here this winter if need be. Huh?? blank looks. I said, you know- y2k and all.... More blank looks. I said- well you know New York (where they live), wouldn't be the best place to be if things got interesting- and they said, "oh- but we live on Long Island......."- ferget it!!! I give up- it's hopeless.....could get interesting...

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), September 24, 1999.