Look at today's numbers: Dow down -225.43, S&P -27.95, NASDAQ-65.05. I think this is a sign coupled with last weeks cumulative drop of over 200 points that slipage has begun. I'm not predicting a meltdown here just a slow and steady decrease between now and end of year. There will be rally days, but my money says that by Dec. 31 we'll see a drop to at least 9400 (roughly 18% drop). Remember I'm saying at least. If a large move to cash develops, Katie bar the door.

T-bill Smooches

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), September 21, 1999

Answers

9400 seems awfully high, I mean we could hit that in a week or two. My guess is more like 7800. It would be quite easy to his that by 1/1/2000 without any real panic.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), September 21, 1999.

It will hit hard and fast. But now is not the time. In a week it will rally again and hit 13000 sometime in October.

-- Typhonblue (typhonblue@hotmail.com), September 21, 1999.

Corrine

I have been posting todays events in the thread below. Lots of market stuff.

Time for the beach

 Market crash starting today?

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

Meanwhile, on the Gold Forum at www.gold-eagle.com, its like one big party -- gold has jumped from a spot price of something like $254 to $265 in one day, possibly due to a backfire in the Bank of England's gold selloff that also occured today. And the news that the Bank of Japan has chosen not to increase the money supply for Japan, letting the U.S. dollar further weaken against the Yen.

The posters on the Gold Forum seem to feel that Their Day has come. (I think it might be a tad bit early to tell....)

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), September 21, 1999.

What do all you guys with the crystal balls think about waiting 'till the Dow Jones average goes down to a dollar three ninety-six, and then buying microsoft?

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 21, 1999.

Note also, that on a bad stock market day, the stock of Real Goods Trading Co (RGTC) was up 9.72% today (albeit on low volume). RGTC sells solar panels.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), September 21, 1999.

Here is my position on the stock market. This is from the article on my website, "Finding Y2K Prep Time and $$".

my site: www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

55. [DON'T] "...buy stocks or bonds (of any type); I expect that losing half of their value by Spring 2000 and becoming unredeemable for years is the best situation you can hope for if you own these for too much longer; if anything, sell every one of these you own before their price drops (and while you still are able to sell them). Don't buy short options, either; by the time the effects of Y2K would make them highly profitable, I expect that collecting on them will be difficult or impossible."

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), September 21, 1999.

Dr. Ed Yardeni's prediction was for the DOW Industrials to be at approximately 6,400 by year end... I'm still agreeing with him. This is a great time to be out of the stock market.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 21, 1999.

Ed Yardeni, always the optimist...

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 21, 1999.

I'm totally out of the market. Nonetheless, my stomach lurches as the market drops because I know this will have an impact on all of us. I hate seeing everything falling apart. I'm guessing 7400 by the end of the year. There will still be pollies. Then, in February or March, it will be at 5400, if it's still in operation. I would buy Intel at $5 a share...if I can sell some gold to buy it.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 21, 1999.

You've lost some of your lustiness.

-- Corrine (aaa@aaa.com), September 22, 1999.

Diversify - REALLY diversify.

Remember that the little guy gets trampled when elephants dance.

The FED, governments, Wall Street, etc. have known the market was overblown, and this period was coming (fall of 99 right before Y2K) for a long time. They are going to do things you won't know of in advance which will have unintended consequences. The FED and Treasury could buy the market and prop it up creaing massive inflation. They are CLEARLY invloved in manipulation of the Gold market. They could raise interest rates and lower the value of bonds. They could cancel the old $20 bills. Their actions could unintentionally push the market way up (crash next year).

Consider: Equities Foreign Equities (europe) Hard assets Real estate Shorts Longs Commodities Money Market Bonds Precious Metals Mining Internut stocks Paper money Oil Food

This is going to be real interesting.

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), September 22, 1999.