INDONESIA - OUR PERSPECTIVE (Stan and Holly Deyo)

There has been so much going on it's hard to know where to begin. There is little point in regurgitating the news you already see on TV like the Turkey quake(s), hurricanes Floyd and Gert, besides the one that hit Hong Kong. We don't think folks in the Northern Hemisphere are getting the full picture of the ramifications of the East Timor crisis. When I lived back in the U.S., I probably didn't even know where East Timor was, but it is Stan's and my next-door-neighbor now. Indonesia is a big trading partner to Australia and because of that, Australia is in a precarious position of leading the peacekeeping troops and not annoying the Indonesians - all in the same stroke.

From many years of watching American news and from exchanging numerous emails with Julie in Perth and folks back home, the full story was not told just how bad it is down here. Australian TV also does not censor like American TV and some of the things we saw were gruesome and grotesque beyond description. It's enough to make your stomach roil. The rogue military and militia groups have no compunction about slaughtering hoards of people that stand in their way.

Yesterday 60 Minutes reported that the animosity to any Caucasian from these militias is EXTREME. If you're white, it's not safe to be there. Today, 2500 international troops (at least 2000 are Australian) have landed - the first steps. An additional 1,000 troops aboard nine ships from Australia, Britain and New Zealand standing off East Timorese territorial waters may go ashore as early as this morning. East Timorese guerilla commanders have warned that Indonesian forces are preparing to resist international troops when they land in East Timor.

Now this is a big step for Australia as they have not, in recent years, been involved in much conflict, let alone lead forces. Yesterday, Major-General Alan Stretton, a retired senior officer, stated this "Australian-led intervention posed more risks than any other operation Australia had been in since World War II." He went on to say, there is talk that conscription will have to be introduced to "fulfill its commitment to the multi-national force. "He goes on to say the Australian army has less than half the numbers it had during the Vietnam conflict. Major-General Stretton states the government will have to introduce a "special national service training team" to boost troop numbers. http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsdaily/rael-19sep1999-133.htm

Per Stan - In all probability, the increase in troop strength will be to defend Australia against a possible Indonesian invasion in retaliation for Australia's part in the peacekeeping movement. This could be the reason that Australia was slow to act on the East Timorese crisis. (Australia was trying to avoid provoking a war with Indonesia.)

Even though this is not a natural disaster, I did write a bit on this probable invasion of Australia by Indonesia in "Dare To Prepare" - as one reason NOT to live coastally, especially in Darwin. Indonesia is not quite three times the size of Texas but has 213,000,00 people as of July 1998 estimations. To put this in perspective, America has about 272,000,000 people spread out over a considerably larger landmass. Australia has 19,000,000 with roughly the same size land as America - give or take a few miles. Indonesia is regularly pummeled by floods, severe droughts, tsunamis and earthquakes. In addition to its hot, humid climate and the above-mentioned natural disasters, it also suffers from severe water and air pollution and deforestation.

Picture a spot of unpopulated paradise to its south, only an hour or two away by plane. Plenty of space and nearly "no one home" by their comparison. This continent is fairly geologically stable by their standards. Though Australia only has 6% arable ground at the present time, Indonesia is fairly smacking its lips at this treasure found in Australia. When ex-Pres. Suharto was in office, the map hanging behind his desk showed the TOP HALF of Australia marked "Indonesia" so this is no idle comment.

As of today, there are at least 1000 refugees in Darwin. About 600 East Timorese have been flown to Puckapunyal Army barracks for longer-term accommodation. This is just north of Melbourne - about 500 km north northeast of us.

As of Sept. 18th, there are up to 24 countries now "possibly committed" to this peacekeeping effort. Thirteen are committed with another 11 still undecided. One challenge that faces these troops is landmines planted as a welcoming surprise.

Food drops continue but the biggest thwart to this effort has been the concern of Indonesians confiscating their rice and other food stuffs. These East Timorese people are in dire straits, some still hiding in the hills with no protection other than trees and no food except what can be scavenged from the ground. 300,000 daily rations are being provided by the United States in addition to what Australia is dropping. Strangely enough, Indonesian observers were ON BOARD the Australian planes to watch where the food was dropped - that was the condition under which any food could be sent.

Last night on CNN, while it being widely publicized by Indonesia that there is "absolutely no militia" in the area, reporters have seen their T-shirts on people and their distinctive red and white bandannas being worn on the streets of Dili. Indonesian President BJ Habibie says there will be little sympathy in Indonesia if Australian soldiers are killed in East Timor.

Australia's Prime Minister, John Howard, has warned people here to expect casualties and that this could be a long, drawn out affair.

Current pictures of Dili, East Timor's largest town, shows a place that resembles a bomb blast - nearly every building is flattened. Last week the news showed a fire burning on every block and looting has cleaned out every last thing of even questionable value in Dili.

Lest you think this is not an American problem, let us share a few things with you:

First, America has at least 19 super secret bases in Australia. They are a conglomeration of advanced research projects for the Dept. of Defense, the Navy and a number of government contractors. Three in particular, including Pine Gap, are essential communication links between the US and its forces in the Middle East. These communication facilities were instrumental in defeating Saddam Hussein in the Gulf War.

Second, there are at least three submarine bases and naval ports in the region which serve the US Naval operations in the Indian and South Pacific Oceans as well as the Persian Gulf operations.

Third, Australia is a vital strategic base of operations for US military services against Southeast Asian, Korean and Chinese potential threats against the US.

Fourth, what many of you may not realize is that the US has been developing and testing some of the most unbelievable secret defensive weapons in Australia for at least 15 years.

This situation could easily be the Balkan powder keg for WWIII. If not, it is certainly living up to the ancient Chinese curse "may you lie in interesting times."

http://buddyebsen.com/standeyo/News_Files/Newsletters/News990920.html

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), September 21, 1999

Answers

thanks, mumsie, for posting this

the line that really struck me was:

"Australian TV also does not censor like American TV"

i watched "deep impact" for the first time a couple of weeks ago....and thought about the fact that the info coming out from our gvt about Y2K was akin to what the gvt was telling the populace in the movie..........in effect, not without spin

course there are those i won't name (but whose initials are "flint") who think that THAT is what government is all about....making sure we don't all rush into a wild panic......

don't know much about timor, but they are "living in interesting times".....as are we

-- andrea (mebsmebs@hotmail.com), September 21, 1999.

You mean the East Timor where the declared Martial Law can't be enforced due to a lack of bodies to enforce it? Gee...what does that sound like?

-- yawn (yeah@sure.com), September 21, 1999.

Yawn,

Yes, there aren't the bodies to enforce it, because the Indonesian gov. doesn't _want_ to enforce it. But be assured that the bodies are available if TPTB choose to use them.

Can we be getting involved in another land war in Asia? Wag on, faithful dog.

gene

-- gene (ekbaker@essex1.com), September 21, 1999.

Over the weekend, I read an account of the East Timor people that had fled to the forests and hills with no food, water or shelter. They were digging up roots and otherwise scavenging for food. Sent a chill up my spine. Made me wonder out loud "I wonder if these people thought this would happen to them a few months ago."

-- ariZONEa (war@sucks.com), September 21, 1999.

What a mess. Thanks for the info, altho, since you focused mainly on the possible consequences, I'm still not sure what the conflict is actually about.

As for "living in interesting times" -- It's a silly expression. You've no doubt read a bit of history, as I have. Can you point to ANY period in human history, in any part of the world, that was NOT interesting...?

-- the times (are@never.boring), September 21, 1999.

coming soon to a world near you,a savior=[ANTI-CHRIST] he will solve world problems' only 1 problem-he is satan in flesh.take his mark & your eternally-toast.[the final-battle]

-- watching prophecy happen. (dogs@zianet.com), September 21, 1999.

It's really about Islam vs Christianity. That's the bottom line. Pauline from Australia

-- pauline jansen (paulinej@angliss.vic.edu.au), September 21, 1999.

Sorry, and something else to ad. I think that a lot of the aggressors are hiding behind Islam as an excuse to gain control of this country. Most Islamic people are calm and law abiding people except for the fundamentalist ratbags. I'm sure their religion doesn't tell its members to act as violently as they do. Pauline from Australia again.

-- pauline jansen (paulinej@angliss.vic.edu.au), September 21, 1999.

I was writing a novel about this about 1.5 years ago, and researched the topic of an Indonesian invasion of Australia in considerable detail.

Basically- it COULD happen. The Indonesians have territorial claims on our north coast. Further, they are, as someone else said, highly populated and vulnerable to flooding and such. This could very well provoke an Indonesian action.

However, the difference between attacking Darwin and attacking Sydney/Brisbane/Canberra is massive. The Indonesians have the ability to cross 200km of water and attack our northernmost town. They do *not* have the logistical ability to fight their way down 3,500 km to Brisbane. Hell, even if all we did was withdraw to a line around Brisbane, simply operating a militarily significant force at the end of a 3,500 km supply line -and there are about two or three roads up north; destroying them selectively wouldn't be hard- would be beyond their capacity. Then bearing in mind that we *wouldn't* let them run that 3,500 km supply line unhindered -there'd be snipers, guerilla ambushes, air attacks, sabotage-, I don't think they'd be able to operate it at all.

That said, if I lived in Darwin or Rockhampton or elsewhere in the far North right now, I might consider backup plans and look for a way to get my assets out, fast, if I had to.

Leo

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), September 21, 1999.

This is only a rumour I heard once.

I have heard that if an enemy force invaded either the West Coast or North Coast of Australia that seem as the Australian government has no hope in hell of defending such a large area that they would set up a defensive line that would be the bottom half of Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales. They would not worry about the top half of Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia or South Australia.

As to an evacuation of those people in those areas, not a chance. You try moving 3 million people approximately 2000 kilometres through desert or very light vegetation where water is scarce. So people living in those states will have to fend for themselves.

As I said, only rumour that this is government policy.

Regards, Simon

-- Simon Richards (simon@wair.com.au), September 21, 1999.

I find it hard to believe that the land that gave us "Mad Max" would let anybody invade them. Can you say "Nuke em" ??? Here in the US of A we have our problems, but would fight to the last man if invaded. There is something about us yanks that when attacked we kinda pull together and get real dangerous ourselves.

-- dozerdoctor (dozerdoc@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

We don;t have a nuclear bomb and hardly spend anything on defence. I think like most western countries we look for you guys to come in and kick bum where necessary. Ours has always been a support role. Pauline from Oz

-- pauline jansen (paulinej@angliss.vic.edu.au), September 21, 1999.

1)Too bad about your recent gun confiscation.........

2) Dear Times:

1952-1958.

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 22, 1999.

Well, its not getting much better. Overnight we have had a Dutch Journalist murdered, apparently by the Indonesian Military.

A British journalist and American photographer were lucky to escape with their lives when their driver was attacked, ("hit in the head with a rifle butt, his eye was hanging down by his chin") and their interpreter trucked off to parts unknown. The journo and photographer were rescued by an Australian Apache Helicopter after calling for help on their SatPhone. The driver was evacuated to Darwin and has lost one eye, they're fighting to save the other. These people may have been attacked by the people who killed the Dutchman. No further journalist allowed in for the time being.

A well was discovered behind the home of an independance supporter, containing at least 5, and possibly up to 30, bodies. The one on top was a headless, naked female. Instruments of torture (meathooks, according to some reports) were also found. Other graves are being unearthed around Dili.

Just to keep you all posted.

RonD

-- Ron Davis (rdavis@ozemail.com.au), September 23, 1999.

Leo said that the Indonesians do not have the logistical capability to fight their way down 3,500km of highway to Brisbane.

"Fight" their way down, Leo? All our troops are in Timor. All 2,500 of them. That's it. The Indonesians can walk, stroll or bus down the highway. Just a few cooks left to hit the invaders with heavy cooking pots. After years of neglecting our country's defence, our Govt is now desperately calling up Reservists. It's too little, too late, of course, and there isn't enough time to train raw recruits.( Let's hope and pray that the USA DOES decide to come to our aid, when we are attacked.)

Add to that a recently disarmed population, and the potential for a successful invasion by a brutal, callous, inhuman foe is very real.

( 12 years ago, I got on the late Andrew Ollie's morning talk back ABC program, and said that Australia was in danger of invasion by Indonesia within 20 years. You can imagine the response from all the social & welfare workers, public servants on RDO's, lefties and assorted do-gooders who made up many of the talk back callers. They gave me heaps! I was quite wrong, of course. In my timing.)

Unlike the pragmatic French, with their "Force de Frappe" (and to h*** with what anyone thinks) we've been too politically correct to even consider such a defence. ("We are a peaceful, non aggressive country. But land in Darwin, and we'll obliterate Jakarta")

Hawke, Keating, Fraser , Whitlam are traitors for what they have allowed to happen militarily to this country. They deserve to be the first on the meat hooks. It will also be interesting to see what our own legion of Muslim migrants do in a conflict with Indonesia. Will their loyalties be religious, or national? Judging by the current participation of many of them in drugs, murder and other serious crime, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for them to defend me.

Further, "Pauline Jenson", the real Pauline Hanson was spot on when she called many Asians the real racists, not the majority of Aussies who are among the LEAST racist and MOST tolerant of the many peoples I have come across. She was also right in calling for national service for 18 year olds, as she was right in so many other things. But she got the same reaction as I did on talk back radio.

The chooks truely are coming home to roost. And, "Pauline Jenson", you're not safe, even in Victoria. Even in the 'public service' (what a misnomer that title is). They'll get down there quicker than you think. I understand from the reports from E. Timor that the Indonesians play some fairly unpleasant games with female civilians, before they butcher them. I hope you're not blonde, "Pauline Jensen", as that may warrant special attention.

Y2K problems may be the least of Austalians' worries over the next few weeks and months.

-- Thinking Seriously (Seriously@think about it.com), September 23, 1999.

Seriously, Seriously, you are selling Aussies short. The ones I know would abandon the pubs, betting shops and pokies, and fight, hand to hand, with their last can of Fosters, if things became seriously serious. So, be serious.

-- Serious Are You? (Are your really@serious.com), September 25, 1999.

Last can of Foster's! Ha!

Let that be a lesson to you about how "crazy" we U.S. supporters of the Second Amendment are. If I lived near the north coast I would be MIGHTY pissed at the sheep who went along with gun confiscation.

I hate to say it, but y'all been too deep in your Foster's. Musta done something to your ability to think about providing for the common defense of the homeland. And to think that the governmental policy is to just kiss-off half of your country before putting up a good defense? Holy crow, I must have been watching to many Crocodile Dundee movies, cause I had an entirely different mental picture of you folks. I gotta tell ya, if the west coast of the US was getting invaded, you would see the Americans grabbing their guns and headed west to kick the bastards off of our shores. Course ya need guns to do that.

Sorry if this rant has upset any Aussies, but I had no clue that you guys where so defenseless. I mean, I like you guys and all, but I'm not ready to see our young men die to save a country that had it's collective head up it's ass.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), September 26, 1999.

Stan and Holly Deyo have an excellent web site with a considerable amount of y2k info, you can check it out at this link:

Noah's Ark

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 26, 1999.