How effective will Y2K remediation be?

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How effective will Y2K remediation be? Will this example of date-rollover problem remediation turn out to be typical, or even common: I recently attended a forestry conference at which one presentation was by a Fish and Wildlife Service refuge manager about their wonderful GIS system. She had with her a state-of-the-art GPS reciever on loan from the DOD, complete with secret encription codes. She spoke of mapping vegetation types, eagle nests, and raved about what a great tool it was. I asked her if she'd had any equipment problems since 9/21. She hesitated, then said "Yes." Even though they had a DOD tech out there to "do something" to the reciever to make sure it would work after the rollover, "this thing hasn't worked in weeks-I don't know what's wrong." This date rollover problem remediation didn't work, and was not discovered until after the date rollover. What if a significant minority of the Y2K remediation turns out to be equally ineffective?

-- Gator (redfernfarm@lisco.com), September 20, 1999

Answers

Gator-- My preparation is in response to my personal answer, in early Y1.98K, to the question, "What if a significant majority of Y2K remediation turns out to be ineffective?" Obviously I believe that; so what if I'm wrong? Frankly, I'd rather be wrong. Frankly, I'd rather not have to live the life that my preps imply. Frankly, I'd rather be comfortably eating crow along with Ed Yourdon, et al, than to have to be utilizing tha' preps. But-- I, too, have worked for the fed'l gubmint in Worshington-- and ya' know how ya' can tell if someone there is overstating/understating/spinning when they tell ya' somethin'? Yeah: their lipzer movin'. . .

But to speculate on a direct answer to yer' question: I think that (even) if a "significant minority" of remediatory work is ineffective then we're on a collision course with cascading cross defaults. . . but that's just MHO. And it IS just an opinion. . .

And if (or IMHO, when) the feces of our "consensus reality" here in Y1.99K hits the oscillating blades of cascading cross defaults, I'm putting my demand deposits on the answer to your "what if" question being "T-E-O-T-W-A-W-K-I".

-- Dewer Dye (qwerty@!!!!.net), September 21, 1999.


* * * 19990921 Tuesday

Gator:

Here's a personal anecdotal clue:

Consultant interview with prospective client: Client admits--with chagrin--that management won't approve funding for fixing more than 40% of system applications. Hopes he--single-handedly!--has selected ALL of the critical applications!

Day 1: I arrived ( APRIL 1997 ) at this second ( for me ) Y2K mainframe ( IBM, COBOL, CICS; mortgage company ) project, in co-lead capacity.

Day 2: Started perusing applications returned to production for assimilating/evaluating methodologies and processes used in the previous 9 MONTHS(!) of work by this and other contract and in-house teams of programmers. I discover at MORE THAN A DOZEN Y2K IMPLEMENTATION ERRORS IN "REMEDIATED" PRODUCTION CODE.

Day 3: Meeting with client to provide input for Y2K REMEDIATION process and strategy for reviewing ALL PRODUCTION CODE "our" team had touched in the PREVIOUS 9 MONTHS! Client compromised: Our team was to continue REMEDIATION AS SCHEDULED - AND - REVIEW "REMEDIATED" PRODUCTION CODE AS "SLACK"--VIRTUALLY NONE AVAILABLE!--TIME PERMITTED.

I moved on to a subsequent 7,000+ PC Y2K project in NOVEMBER 1997 ( after 7 months ); two members of the team were left working on remediation AND REVIEWING PRODUCTION "REMEDIATED" APPLICATIONS. Never touched 60% of the "non-mission critical" app and queasy about the portion of the 40% our team was contractually responsible for!

That's typical "effectiveness" of Y2K remediation efforts! Ha! Y2K REMEDIATION EFFECTIVENESS is an expensive joke!

We're ( editorial ) "Y2K burnt toast!"

Regards, Bob Mangus

33+ honorable and exquisitely challenging years in the IT industry -- and ashamed of it--especially arrogant, know-nothing, de-nihilist ( pun! ) business management--all!!

* * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.


If we go through the rollover w/o a glitch that means the problem was miniscule to begin with. That's the only hope.

Remediation will have done little either way if there is a large problem. A matter of too little, too late, lack of interest, financing, financial return, etc. etc.

Of course this is only my opinion and I am perfectly willing to be wrong. Around January next year.

dddd

-- typhonblue (typhonblue@home.com), September 21, 1999.


The remediation failed last year as a broad strategy. Come January, the infrastructure will FAIL!



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), September 21, 1999.


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