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[The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 9.19.99]

Pessimists push diverse agendas

By Marilyn Geewax Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff Writer

Washington -- The threat of Y2K-related computer failures Jan. 1 is causing some Americans to prepare for an event so catastrophic that society will break down and guns will be needed to protect the money stuffed into mattresses.

But many of the alarmists insisting Y2K will trigger the collapse of banks are working overtime to load up their own bank accounts this fall. Profiteers are using Y2K pitches to peddle "survivalist" products such as guns, gold coins, dehydrated foods and portable generators.

Not every Y2K doomsayer is motivated by profit. Some sincerely believe our technologically advanced society is in grave danger from Y2K and that we should be preparing for a much simpler way of life. Still others are hawking Y2K hysteria to advance ideological causes or fanatical religious beliefs.

Here are some of the groups making the most out of the approach of 2000:

Profiteers: These entrepreneurs are selling ordinary products but marketing them as something special for Y2K.

In August, Gun World magazine warned that "every family" should prepare for Jan. 1 by owning "at least two rifles." The same month, the American Guardian, a journal of the National Rifle Association, urged people to stock up on enough ammo to blast away during "a few weeks of severe social unrest." Interstate Arms Corp. of Billerica, Mass., is promoting the "Y2K Limited Edition Carbine" with 30-round magazines.

Makers of gold medallions also are aggressive in exploiting Y2K anxieties, telling consumers that gold will be the only "currency" with value after Jan. 1. Although gold prices have been languishing at depressed levels, one company has been selling gold at prices far above market value after stamping pieces of the metal with images of religious figures.

Other companies are marking up the prices on simple products, such as flashlights and freeze-dried foods, and marketing them as "Y2K-guaranteed." Some con artists are using Y2K as a way to trick gullible bank customers into disclosing personal financial information, such as passwords for ATMs, to help with computer "testing."

Armageddon believers: Some fundamentalist Christians are convinced that Y2K problems will trigger the rise of the Antichrist and hasten the second coming of Christ. These groups encourage adherents to stockpile food and water and develop survival skills to prepare for this extremely turbulent time.

For example, the author of the book "God's Free Harvest" urges Christians to prepare for Y2K by learning to live on acorns and weeds. His book teaches readers how to "use cattails for an outdoor meal" and "make coffee from dandelion roots."

Former hippies: Some baby boomers who in their younger days seriously questioned this country's economic system are now using Y2K to promote simplicity. Rather than stress the survivalist approach of stocking up on guns and moving into bunkers, these groups focus on building a sense of community, urging people to grow vegetables in neighborhood gardens, can foods, harness solar power and share other resources.

Hate groups: Some extremist groups believe Y2K could create the social chaos needed to trigger a "race war" that will allow white Christians to kill Jews, blacks and other minorities. They urge adherents to use Y2K-related power outages and any subsequent store lootings as excuses to start shooting.

Survivalists: Some people taking extreme steps to prepare for Y2K, such as moving to remote farms with no electrical power, are not racists, hippies or religious fanatics. They are simply convinced that Y2K will trigger a cascade of equipment failures that will cause power plants to crash, water spigots to run dry and planes to fall from the sky.

http://www.accessatlanta.com/partners/ajc/reports/y2k/pessimists.html

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), September 20, 1999

Answers

Nice way they portray anyone even remotely concerned with Y2K with the same "Lunatic Brush" eh? Can't wait until they find out for themselves the reality of the situation. Then its time for a good laugh!

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 20, 1999.

Looks like Marilyn Geewax can't go wrong. See her other article, same paper, same day,

Link

that tells you what to do to prepare.

I guess no matter how it turns out she can claim to have been right.

Sad.

-- de (delewis@XOUTinetone.net), September 20, 1999.

Yea, it'a all a big money-making, Armageddon scam, that has nothing to do with broken computer programs.

Moron (not you Homer, Marilyn Geewax).

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 20, 1999.

I knew it was the damn hippies. IN fact, I blame it all on LSD. I mean, those LSD intoxicated hippies were the ones who wrote the programs, right? (I was there. I turned on and programmed--well, maybe not simultaneously...)

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 20, 1999.

"Looks like Marilyn Geewax can't go wrong. See her other article, same paper, same day,"

The irony in this is that Geewax and the like are the real profiteers. The leech-type profiteers, who give absolutely nothing in return.

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 20, 1999.

Notice that while this article is said to have written by someone with an Atlanta newspaper, the first word of the article is Washington.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 20, 1999.

A day later...

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business Monday, September 20

Millenium alarmists push public to prepare

By Marilyn Geewax American-Statesman Washington Staff Monday, September 20, 1999

WASHINGTON -- The Paul Reveres of the Information Age will learn in little more than 100 days whether their shouts have roused the public from complacency about the Y2K computer bug.

On Jan. 1, Americans who go on their own midnight rides may see traffic tie-ups, power outages and mass confusion stemming from the date-related computer problem.

But increasingly, experts believe the alarms have spurred enough action to prevent significant equipment failures in this country. The progress is "far more than I would have predicted," said Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem.

So while there are doom-sayers warning of apocalyptic failures of power, transportation and military systems -- and many offering to sell expensive forms of protection -- most experts advise families simply to make the same preparations they would for a severe winter storm.

Still, the people most familiar with the bug, including Bennett, won't declare the coast clear. Many small-and medium-sized businesses, as well as state and local governments, have much more work to do. And in many countries, especially in Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa, both businesses and governments remain far behind in preparing for Y2K.

"I am optimistic, but at the same time, I am absolutely certain there will be Y2K incidents," Bennett said.

The question no one can answer is whether the expected computer malfunctions involving smaller companies and overseas suppliers will be great enough to disrupt the supply chains that keep the U.S. economy humming.

Optimists say our economy is so strong that Y2K troubles won't have a measurable impact. If one supplier shuts down because of computer problems, another company with better equipment will quickly take its place, they argue. Indeed, the economy will get a boost as Y2K weeds out technologically trailing compa-

nies.

But pessimists fear that Y2K could cause a cascade of small failures that will build into big collapses of computer-controlled systems and global supply chains, triggering a worldwide recession.

What remains disconcerting so late into 1999 is that no one can predict with total confidence what will happen just 103 days from now.

The roots of the problem can be traced back to the 1960s, when mainframe computers began entering our workplaces. Early programmers decided to use two digits to denote a year. For example, 65 would represent 1965.

The dating system continued through the 1970s and 1980s, both in software and the embedded chips that controlled computers and automated equipment.

Price of preparedness

Fixing Y2K problems already has cost the federal government more than $8 billion, according to the U.S. General Accounting Office. Industry is spending tens of billions more.

If Jan. 1 passes quietly, it will not be proof that Y2K was all hype or hoax, but rather that businesses "recognized the problem and addressed it with the right resources," said Tom Orlowski, vice president of the National Association of Manufacturers.

Despite these expensive efforts, experts are reluctant to declare victory over the Y2K bug. That's because many computers and chips are physically inaccessible, making it impossible to test them. The chips in satellites in outer space or in drilling equipment beneath the ocean's surface can't be guaranteed to work properly on 1-1-00.

Also, so much effort has gone into fixing the most crucial computers that smaller problems may have been ignored. A good example of that turned up recently when the Social Security Administration mailed letters to more than 32,000 people announcing that certain benefits would end on Jan. 1, 1900.

The agency, which had been bragging for months about its success in fixing the "mission-critical" systems responsible for cutting checks, admitted it had not repaired the machine that printed the letters.

Both optimists and pessimists point to the Social Security incident to support their arguments.

Optimists admit that odd problems will occur, but nothing that would necessitate hoarding food or pulling all your money out of the bank.

But pessimists say the letter shows the bug is so pervasive that even the powerful federal government cannot stop it. On Jan. 1, they warn, so many computer errors will occur at once that chaos could break out.

Rosier outlook

The worst-case scenarios go something like this: Shortly after midnight Jan. 1, Y2K bugs will cause the power to go out in a number of cities. Many telecommunications systems will falter because the chips embedded in satellites and other kinds of equipment will fail. In a few cities, explosions will light up the skies over chemical plants. In poorer countries, nuclear power plants will begin spewing dangerous materials into the environment, and millions of people will start freezing to death in cold places such as Russia and North Korea.

News stories about the explosions and power outages will cause people everywhere to panic, triggering bank runs, food shortages and looting. Y2K problems in other countries will be so severe that U.S. manufacturers will be unable to get parts, causing massive layoffs.

A year ago, that scenario seemed to have more credibility. But today, mainstream thinking is much less grim. Most information technology officials say the problems that will occur in this country will take no more than 72 hours to fix.

A three- to four-day estimate for disruptions has become the norm among leading experts on Y2K. Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., vice chairman of the Y2K committee, is urging Americans to have 72 hours worth of food, water, medicine and warm clothing ready, just in case problems strike in their areas.

But he hastens to point out that stockpiling food or cash for a long haul would be more dangerous than doing nothing, because it could cause bank runs or stampedes to stores.

http://www.austin360.com/statesman/editions/today/business_3.html

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), September 20, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr near Monterey, California

I think these inconsistencies show she's not even reading the stories that she's "writing." They pull the stuff off the wires and put their names on them. She must be getting chewed out now for "writing" that one story that encourages preparations. I bet she plagiarized, I mean sourced, that one off the crazy, irresponsible web.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), September 20, 1999.