America has its own problems right now, in particular one named Hurricane Floyd, so I don't blame you for not noticing the big war that my country might be about to get itself into. And the certain, immediate, conflict that our troops are getting into NOW, as I write this and as they land.

How it happened, is a long story. To cut it short, Indonesia had invaded East Timor 20 years ago, been very brutal to the locals. In January, their President decided to let ET go again. There was a referendum, the leadup to which was marred by violence. Referendum results came in regardless; 80% in favor of independence. At this point, the Indonesian-backed militias went on a total rampage, killing and looting indiscriminately. The Indonesian military, still in the province, has stood by and let this happen -as I said, even supplying the militias with arms. The Indonesian President has made noises against it, but he can't control his army -who are VERY opposed to independence.

Our esteemed Prime Minister, John Howard, decided that these massacres shouldn't happen. So an Australian-led UN force (7,500 Australians, plus token elements from other countries; a ship from England, a company of troops from Singapore, some logistical assistance from the United States) is going in to stop it.

Here's the catch. Indonesian feeling is that this is an invasion. There was a lot of Indonesian burning of Australian flags in Jakarta, and our consulates have all been evacuated. Australia has a tiny population, a fraction of that of the US, and a 7,500 man undertaking is comparable to a 130,000 man undertaking (as a % of population.) The Indonesian military, which is out of the control of a shaky Presidency, totally opposes independence. Further, Indonesia has long-standing territorial claims on the north of Australia. And, another further- the last Indonesian leader, who took power amidst riots when HIS predecessor's govt collapsed, found his govt on very shaky footing (much the same way as the current one is) and invaded East Timor as a way to get the country behind him again. (It worked. He stayed in power for another 20 years.)

So what does this mean down in Sydney?

I'm learning the Indonesian language, have been doing so for a few weeks. Easy language. The danger of a theoretical Indonesian invasion to me in Sydney is not great -there is no way in hell that they would have the logistics to get within 2,000 km of this town- especially since the chance of an invasion is at this moment slight.The danger of serious fighting in East Timor is somewhat higher, and in order to maintain a presence there, given the size of our military, it is widely believed -and has been stated by a very senior ex-military person- that a draft might be neccessary.

This doesn't mean anything to you Americans, but I'm posting it anyway.. first, because I'm copy/pasting it to a couple other boards. Second, because it could be interesting -hell, I could be at war six months from now!

Leo

(Note to TB2000: this was written on another discussion board and pasted to here. Right now, I'm about to go to the City and enquire about reserve officer training -if there's going to be action, I don't want to be a grunt. Further, I heavily back the East Timor intervention, and wouldn't consider it ethical to send people there if I was not prepared to go there myself.)

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), September 19, 1999

Answers

Leo, thank you for giving us some "local" perspective on this. There is quite a bit about this in the American press, but most people (as far as I can tell) have little interest in this. We forget that Indonesia is the 4th most populace nation in the world, 10 times that of Australia.

The thing that I don't understand, and I've learned quite a bit about Indonesia in the past few weeks, is WHY East Timor is such a hot spot? It was a Portuguese colony while most of the rest of the country was Dutch. What is it about East Timor that the Indonesians are practically willing to destroy the whole country to keep?

-- (pshannon@inch.com), September 19, 1999.

pshannon, if you think about it a moment you answered your own question. 4th most populous nation, Square footage of real estate. This is an island nation, nowhere to expand to. Land becomes the most valuable commodity of all.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), September 19, 1999.

A couple of minor corrections...

The Australian Force is a max of 4,500, not 7,500, 7,500 is the *total* force.

Australian diplomatic missions in Indonesia have not to my knowldege been evacuated. (They have in E Timor, however)

for pshannon: It's difficult to know why the Indonesians are fighting so hard for E Timor, it's a dry dusty place with little to offer in the way of resources, the main industry is coffee growing, from what I can gather, although I think there is some oil and gas around, but I don't believe it's in huge quantity. I think it's just holding on to territory, but there may be religious aspects. Indonesia is the world's most populous Islamic nation and the E Timorese are mostly Catholic.

RonD

-- Ron Davis (rdavis@ozemail.com.au), September 19, 1999.

A successful East Timor independence is a torch for other independence pressure spots to the North of Australia. Aceh and Irian Jia particularly. Indonesia is resisting the independence movements by the only way it knows how. Failure to halt these movements means the partitioning of Indonesia. Then it will not be the world's fourth largest populated country. It'll be a hotch-potch. We are witness to a lot of sorrow coming.

-- Pieter (zaadz@icisp.net.au), September 19, 1999.

I think the bopttom line is that it's Islam vs Christianity. Pure and simple.

-- pauline jansen (paulinej@angliss.vic.edu.au), September 19, 1999.

Several good pieces on East Timor at:

http://www.stratfor.com/asia/archivespecial.htm

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), September 19, 1999.

Leo! Great to hear from you!

Excellent thread and responses. Thanks Leo and everyone else. I've tried to keep up with the situation from the beginning but the press here is limited to a degree and it's great to get the proper perspectives.

Thanks!

Mike

==============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), September 19, 1999.

You're absolutely right, Pauline. The major conflict to come in the next century will be Moslem vs. Christian and since the Moslems are far more ready to kill Christians than Christians are ready to kill Moslems, we are at a distinct disadvantage.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), September 19, 1999.

There is something really sick about the whole Timor crisis. If you all remember, Paul Keating wanted such STRONG ties with Indonesia for his own personal investments. Everyone has always known of the inhumane acts committed on the people of East Timor. Why has it taken this for everyone to sick up and take notice. It's like waiting for many people to get killed before putting in a pedestrian crossing. And if we all remembered too that Pauline Hanson warned the Australian public of problems with Indonesia and everyone just laughed. Now the Government is running scared - they know that they have stuffed and and shovelling the Timor problems under the carpet is no longer satfisfactory.

And everyone knows that Australia has no defense force. What will happen to Australia if all the armed forces are located in East Timor. Its like waving a red flag and saying were open guys come and get us. Australia has a real problem - and I think the US are sitting back and laughing and of course a little pissed that we never kept them up to date.

I have a friend who's brother is in the armed forces and they were deploying up to 2000 armed forces to Darwin well over 6 months ago. What does that tell us. Howard knew what was happening but we just let it happen.

I think we should all start reading between the lines.

-- Pamela (pamelav@vandersound.com.au), September 20, 1999.

Ron- my mistake, 7500 total. Still, our commitment in Vietnam never exceeded about 3,500 men, and that required the draft in order to sustain it.

Pamela.. my opinion is that Howard isn't an evil schemer like some people think Clinton is. I'm a Liberal and voted for him in the 1998 election, but I think his virtues begin and end at honest. He's not a visionary, he's not inspired, he's not a particularly great leader. (Keating at least, despite being Labor and therefore a scumsucking leftie, was a charismatic person.) Anyway, I doubt there's any evil deeds afoot here like some believe are in Australia.

(Of course, with a woman like Meredith Burgmann as Speaker of the NSW Upper House, a woman who snubs our allies and trading partners but invites representatives from hostile leftist kleptocracies like Cuba and Vietnam.. I wouldn't put that socialistic slut past anything. Still, I doubt she's involved in this.)

Anyway, I think this could come to serious escalation. Especially if y2k disables the American option to bomb Jakarta flat if they get too rough.

Leo

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), September 20, 1999.

Leo,

I too voted Howard in the 1998 election, and have the same opinion about Keating as you. But as an ex public servant I got to know what went on behind closed doors - and it really frightened me. I worked in a highly profile area and was in a high profile job. I quit because I couldn't stand the beaurocratic bull..., lied, deceit to the general public. You betcha Howard knew all along. But it all comes down to browny points as one very high profile pollie once told me.

Regards

-- Pamela (pamelav@vandersound.com.au), September 20, 1999.

So nice to see the Aussies jumping in here with first hand info. E Timor has been a thorn in Australia's side ever since the 5 Australian journalists were killed in 1975. There is both gas and oil reserves in E. Timor but even more so it is the jumping off place for the conquering of Irian Jaya (western half of the island of New Guinae) New Guinae has large oil and gas reserves and only an indigenous population. The Indonesians have been moving into that region and moving the local populations back into the forest. The Indonesians seem to think that they have a right to all the islands down in that area, even tho' the islands may be an independent countries. They have done the same thing with Bali. E. Timor is but an hours flt from the Northern Territory of Australia/Darwin. They have to be nervous in that area. Who knows what the islamic world has provided in weapons. Indonesia is mostly Islamic. Because of its Portugese heritage, E. Timor is Catholic. Obviously religion is part of it, but for the most part its Indonesia's idea of "manifest destiny" (and the need of oil and gas). Another thing, a lot of what is being called the Indonesian army, are really private armys run by war lords, thus the Indonesian gov't has little control over them. Taz

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), September 20, 1999.

I agree it is so nice to see Australians posting here with information about what is going on. Ron, I saw your post on the weekend implying we may not be aware of what is happening in your area. Canadian media coverage of the East Timor referendum and its results has been daily for the past month, so we have been made aware here. Unfortunately, our govt has been foot-dragging on involvement in this one, in spite of much lobbying and even media pressure to get involved, now! Please continue to update us with as much info as possible; our hearts are with you. And kudos for your compassion and courage!

-- Rachel Gibson (rgibson@hotmail.com), September 20, 1999.

Ron, To paraphrase HG Wells, late in the 20th century,unsuspecting Aussies looked north ,never realizing that coveting alien eyes were gazing back and considering all the open spaces that they could inhabit post y2k. Having turned in your thundersticks has just made it easier and more likely.

-- realpolitic (lotsofspace@justdowntheroad.com), September 20, 1999.

Sorry Leo, I meant you, not Ron.

-- realpolitic (lotsofspace@rightdowntheroad.com), September 20, 1999.