The U.S. federal government says there will be widespread failures in Russia, Japan, and China. Say goodbye to imports! After you are done saying goodbye, look for something made in the good old U.S. of A. Stick a fork in us we're done! Oh yeah, oil in the same shape!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), September 13, 1999

Answers

I'm trying to stay open minded here and use the critical thinking skills that I spent all those years in school to learn....

So, do you think that the U.S. is incapable of doing without imports, or making what we need?

Now, granted, we may all have to get along without a new pair of Vietnamese Nikes every coupla months, but right now, the U.S. is a net exporter of food and lumber. Especially to Asia. The trade imbalance, as I understand it, is in Nikes and Hondas, not in rice and beans. We make enough food to feed ourselves, produce enough fuel to move it to the stores, and make or have enough spare parts to keep the trucks going for a good while. Now, it may mean higher prices, reduced selection, or a host of other troubles, but I don't expect famine.

Secondly, it has never been adequately demonstrated to me that the system is so fault-intolerant that even widespread disruption will cause it to collapse.

The things I've read all have the economy and everything collapsing if just a few things go wrong. And yet things go wrong all the time. Companies go bankrupt and factories close down, etc. etc.

Aha! folks will say - but never all at the same moment! Well, it appears more and more likely that Y2K will not cause an insurmountable number of things to go wrong all at once. - but here's a term that needs defining: What is an insurmountable level of failure? How many things have to fail to bring the system down?

We don't know - anyone who claims to know is, I think, grasping. But I think the number of things that have to fail to bring down the economy or our society is pretty high - or at least higher than some might seem to believe.

In the ordinary way of things, if I don't pay my phone bill, my telephone gets turned off (an attractive prospect on some days...). But if I and 100,000 others in the greater Portland area can't pay our phone bills, I expect that the phone company will not turn off our lines - for one thing, they don't have enough staff to handle it. But beyond that, they'll recognize that an extraordinary period is underway and they will make it work rather than piss off 100,000 otherwise dependable customers.

Now, there is a limited amount of time before the phone company can't make payroll, but is that amount of time greater than the length of time it will take to fix the systems that have failed - and the time can be extended (through the magic of credit) if we have a reasonable certainty that when the problem is fixed, the people can (and will) pay their bills normally. The doom scenarios I've heard all assume that people will go around eating children and burning down their communities at the first delayed paycheck or sight of empty shelves in the grocery store.

It's economically rational for me to cut my neighbor some slack if his bank is down due to computer failure. For the most part, he'll be good for it when we get things sorted out.

So, I'm willing to be shown the error of my thinking - can anyone explain why it is that things must fail bigtime here if they do elsewhere? (By bigtime I mean riots, starvation, TEOTWAWKI, the whole Gary North banana.) I don't mean having to back-order your new Gateway box or fuel prices at $3/gallon.

JZ

-- Jeff Zurschmeide (zursch@cyberhighway.net), September 13, 1999.

"I'm trying to stay open minded here and use the critical thinking skills that I spent all those years in school to learn...."

Good, keep practicing, maybe you'll make it.

"So, do you think that the U.S. is incapable of doing without imports, or making what we need?"

No, but how long do you think it takes to retool and rehire in order to make what we need? How much capital -- which may be pretty scarce for a while -- does it take to open a ball bearing factory, without access to imported ball bearings? What do we do in the meantime?

Most people on this forum don't believe the world will end with Y2K. The majority believe there will be major problems. Before you assume that half the world can go down the tube without it affecting the US, I suggest you seriously consider how little we actually do manufacture in this country today. Then ask what would happen if it were suddenly slowed to a trickle. Not the end of the world, but a lot of people in misery.

-- de (delewis@XOUTinetone.net), September 13, 1999.

Jeff;

Go look at the Made In Tags or plates on anything you own. Now tell me where are those factories located? In the U.S.? Don't think so. Next where are the skills, and lastly, where are the people. Answer;;;;; They ain't! Trickle???????? Have you heard the status on international shipping? One more thing, if you do find something made in America, where did the parts or raw materials come from? Hope I answerd your question.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), September 13, 1999.

Jeff .... I think the basic, incorrect assumption your making , is that people who are cold/freezing (at least in the North), who can NOT explain to their hungry wifes/children why they failed to stock food, AND made MO contingency plans for this well known event, will THINK RATIONALLY ! Fear has a funny way of distorting reality AND reasoning. His thought processes might be ... " Hey ! Look at the Jeff Z's house down the street. He has lights ! He must have a generator and food. Who tipped him off ? Saw him taking to a town official last month ; must have been told by the politicians what was coming . It's not FAIR ! My wife and kids are cold and hungry , while he flants his connections with those crooked politicians who lied to us. I'll have to talk to my neighbors . There is strength in unity . And, if he won't share, well, WE can take care of THAT TOO !!! " At a time when people could be pulling together, they'll be pulling what little sembelance of civilization we have left APART . Depending on how quickly things start to come "unglued" , I have a plan that I have been working on for years . You need an assembly point and mine will be the local church , which will ring it's church bells to announce an assembly for all those who were informed this fall that this would be the signal, in case of a " community problem/disaster ". From here on you MUST have a plan of action, tools ,seeds, etc. . I have done all this, and have the " grease " (food) that one needs to bargin with for work/cooperation that will be needed at this critical juncture . The rest, as they say . will be history . Luck, holding out alone, etc. etc. are for the bunker minded , mocho males in S of F magazine types . I'm too old for that ! LOL to all of you GI's out there ! Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), September 13, 1999.

Just out of curiosity Hal, how many in your community are prepped and ready to go? Is "everyone" in your community committed to taking care of each other? What plans do you have in place for those that did not prepare and who refuse to work for food? What plans do you have for trouble makers? What plans are in place for outsiders coming in with no food or supplies? Is everyone meeting in your group trustworthy and committed? And if so, how did you all agree and be in harmony with each other?

-- curious one (curiousone@curiousoneee.com), September 13, 1999.

>So, do you think that the U.S. is incapable of doing without imports, or making what we need? <

Two words: "shoes" and "clothes". Answers to your question: no, and no.

Computers are stupid and they don't care.

-- Brady (brady@docuscribe.com), September 13, 1999.

Sooo many pollies...so little time.

-- Charles R. (chuck_roast@trans.net), September 13, 1999.

Brady, I'm not a polly but I do maintain that there are enough shoes and clothes in the USA to last for years even if all shoe and clothing manufacturing in the world ceased. It'd be decades before anyone here would need to go barefoot/back.

Unfortunately, people aren't so well set-up for fuel, food, or cash. Problems with imported fuel will lead to problems with food which will lead to problems with cash.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), September 13, 1999.

Jeff, I don't believe it! An adult, and one that can think, too. Such a refreshing change, but partner, you'll get very lonley hanging out on this forum. Slip on over to Cowles' forum, you'll find a group over there that is more compatible with you in both maturity and thinking ability. In the meantime, well-thought out, and nicely put.

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), September 13, 1999.

Crude petroleum is only around, what, maybe 19% gasoline. Closer to 40% of petroleum is actually used for gasoline. (The precise figures escape me now; any petroleum engineers reading this are invited to supply them). The difference is accounted for by use of catalytic cracking, which relies upon platinum and/or palladium to work. The U.S. imports essentially all of its platinum and palladium. Given this (transmutation is not an option), how could we sustain even half of current gasoline production without overseas trade? I could give you numerous more examples, such as bauxite, vanadium, cobalt, industrial diamonds, etc., but the point has been made. Also, there are many manufactured products (electronics parts, ball bearings, optics, a number of pharmaceuticals such as insulin, etc.) that we are currently importing and would be in trouble during the time it would take to retool to make them here again. It isn't just about shoes and jackets.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com (new stuff just added)

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), September 13, 1999.

Governments cause famine.

-- troll (freeman@interx.net), September 13, 1999.

Curious one ... I tried the suggested route of talk and literature from the net to 12 in the immediate community. NO response . That's why I changed to "The Plan" .Do you think people who have no food/heat are in some kind of a bargining position ? Are you thinking , " The way it is now " , with police, fire dept. and local government ? You don't sound like a GI; more polly/troll . I don't live in/near a big city; it's like a mountain top , still enough farming land/herd of cows/family who keeps chickens year round/vet who lives in the area/some sheep and horses AND it's defendable, with limited access. As far as cooperation , besides the food for work/cooperation part of the plan, I must defer the rest to chairman Mao : " Government comes out of the barrel of a gun " . Which doesn't mean you shoot them; just let "THEIR stomachs do the talking" . Ever lived through a depression ? I have . People who are hungry/with families are VERY contrite and greatful for the work = food/clothes/shelter idea . Bet you've never blistered your hands for a dollar, have you ? Worn your big brothers clothes to school ? Been there; done that, AND MORE ! Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), September 13, 1999.

Jeff

I live in British Columbia Canada and when the Asia crisis hit we got nailed big time in the lumber and mining communities. Towns are shut down and don't expect to open again. The loss has been a personal TEOTWAWKI for LOTS of folk.

During testimony to the California Gov. one of the Intel big wigs discribed possible failures in Japan as a top concern with his company. There were no work arounds.

There is more than just running shoes involved.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 13, 1999.

Jeff - "So, do you think that the U.S. is incapable of doing without imports, or making what we need?"

We have spent the last decade or two downsizing and outsourcing. Our graduates are working fast food places and pushing buttons with pictures on them so they don't have to read. Spend some time at the links below and come to your own conclusions.

"The trade imbalance, as I understand it, is in Nikes and Hondas, not in rice and beans."

Check the links below.

"We make enough food to feed ourselves,"

Have you researched transportation and Y2K?

produce enough fuel to move it to the stores, and make or have enough spare parts to keep the trucks going for a good while.

See the Dept. of Commerce report.

"Secondly, it has never been adequately demonstrated to me that the system is so fault-intolerant that even widespread disruption will cause it to collapse."

Well... DUH!... that's because it has never happened before. A demonstration has been scheduled for your education or amusement... in a little over 100 days.

"We don't know - anyone who claims to know is, I think, grasping. But I think the number of things that have to fail to bring down the economy or our society is pretty high - or at least higher than some might seem to believe."

Interesting points. Are you willing to bet your life that you are right?

"So, I'm willing to be shown the error of my thinking - can anyone explain why it is that things must fail bigtime here if they do elsewhere?"

No one is saying they MUST fail. But they CAN fail. Its not the odds... its the stakes. Place your bets ladies and gentleman. Your chits are your ability to keep warm, drink water, eat and cloth yourself and your loved ones. Place your bets... step right up. Countdown to last call. Preparation - wise or foolish? You decide.

THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM AND THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM

U.S. Commodity Trade With 80 Largest U.S. Trade Partners, 1994-98

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 13, 1999.

GUS:

Just because as you walk through X-mart there are full walls of shoes out for sale, do NOT believe that the suply you see is inexhaustable. the last time I checked with a national retailer (well I didn't check but the guys from McBooz-Anderson in my car did), the standard turn for soft goods is 18-24. What does this mean? It means that the complete stock in soft goods changes at least 18 to 24 times PER YEAR! Translation, the life expectancy of that pair of shoes you walked by this afternoon (if they were racked JUST before you walked by) is less than 2 weeks.

Now, in some retail sectors the folks have gotten so good that the turns are approaching 180. YUP! 2 day life expectancy! How are they doing this?? Computers, JIT shipments from suppliers, internal JIT shipments.

Defense rests.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 14, 1999.

Good morning Jeff,

Nice to know that we'll have lots of food and lumber stuck here next year.

"produce enough fuel to move it to the stores,"

Really? We produce?

"And yet things go wrong all the time."

Believe me I know. I'm the guy that fixes them. I don't have time for Y2K. Did Hoff send you? Have you been reading Stephen Poole? Just kidding.

"How many things have to fail to bring the system down?"

That's what we're all here trying to figure out. How much will break? Will it be enough?

"the time can be extended"

Y2K can't.

"first delayed paycheck or sight of empty shelves"

How long would it take?

"TEOTWAWKI"

I'm a 6.5 <:)=

See ya!

Tick... Tock...

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 14, 1999.

Jeff, and gas at $3/gal isn't going to negatively affect the economy?? Do you rely on a job to feed and clothe your family, to provide shelter for them and transportation as required? Don't you think that $3/gal gas is going to directly and indirectly affect that? As Mr. Decker says, "Take 2 cups of history (recent, 1970's) and call me in the morning."

-- T the C (tricia_canuck@hotmail.com), September 14, 1999.

There's a manufacturer in Italy that provides one single important part for the machines built in a manufacturer in Belgium. If this comapny goes down with Italy - probability high - the company in Belgium can't ship it's product - anywhere. And that, of course doesn't even address the issue of shipping via freight tanker.

What does this have to do with us? Dh manages American division of the Belgium based manufacturer. No shippy - no checky. Employees of this company here - eight. Eight families at risk. Not many -but it isn't even the tip of the iceberg. Do you not understand how many Americans depend on income from businesses based in other countries? A broad range of businesses - not just running shoes.

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), September 14, 1999.

Jeff:

The potential problem with retooling is that a significant percentage of our manufacturing is now done on multistation, "pick and place", type machines that are designed to run a fairly small range of items AND NOTHING ELSE.

We are far away from the times of the majority of manufacturing, especially in the metal machining, being done on general purpose lathes, mills, etc.

Thus, retooling means not just inserts, bars, gauges, fixtures, but in many, many cases, entirely new machines. Lead time? 12+ months Easy.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), September 14, 1999.

Gosh, what a fabulous outpouring of information! (no sarcasm - I seem to have hit the mother lode...)

I'll take up a few items:

Someone said:

>>Jeff, and gas at $3/gal isn't going to negatively affect the economy?? Do you rely on a job to feed and clothe your family, to provide shelter for them and transportation as required? Don't you think that $3/gal gas is going to directly and indirectly affect that? As Mr. Decker says, "Take 2 cups of history (recent, 1970's) and call me in the morning."

Sure, $3 gas will affect the economy. I do use a job to support my family - good thing it's about 2 miles from home, eh? I didn't say that nothing would happen - I'm really just talking about the TEOTWAWKI scenarios full of burning cities, millions dying of starvation, etc etc etc. $3 gas and a lack of consumer goods won't get us to that state.

Running shoes are a convenient example. I have about 5 pairs or so at home, along with various and sundry boots. If I had to, I could probably get along without buying new clothing for 10 years. My wardrobe would be pretty tatty by then, but I'd still be alive and not arrested for public indecency.

Similarly, I could get along without TV, microwave oven, pop-tarts, etc - not fun, and certainly not good for the economy, but not fatal, either.

Fuel, medication, food, heat, shelter, and some degree of clothing manufacturing - these will be priorities for business (and government) to ramp up if Y2K is bad - which is something I'm not even willing to concede yet. April said: >Do you not understand how many Americans depend on income from businesses based in other countries? A broad range of businesses - not just running shoes.

Oh yeah. My previous employer did most of their business (back end semiconductor chip design and making equipment) in Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, and Korea. They're screwed if things get bad. But that's not the same as starving and burning down the cities.

-- Jon Williamson said: Thus, retooling means not just inserts, bars, gauges, fixtures, but in many, many cases, entirely new machines. Lead time? 12+ months Easy.

If it's just 12 months, we're home free. It would be a great shock, economically, but not the 'millions starving' scenarios I hear bandied about.

As I look around and try to take stock of what's at risk, I see a lot of remediation efforts - I expect some companies to fail, whether through their own unpreparedness or through faults in their supply/money chain. But I also see others ready to step up and take up the slack - perhaps they'll be working 3 shifts around the clock (making money hand over fist in the process) but they'll be there. There is still enough ingenuity to go around to prevent more than a 3-4 (as I understand the scale) nationwide.

Now, Ney York City will riot given almost any excuse at all. So will many of the major urban centers - just look at almost any big city after their sports team wins a championship. (And that's people who are *happy*.) But overall, I still don't see the justification for the dire predictions.

If Y2K is bad, people will figure out what needs to be done and do it - and they will manage to figure out how to pay themselves and keep themselves fed while they do it. I may end up riding my bicycle to work (or the family horse) - but as in so many crisis situations before (local or nationwide) people figure out how to get through it.

And given the advance notice we've had on this one, I expect to drive to work on Monday, Jan 3, 00. I wouldn't be surprised if the gas companies use the turnover to claim trouble and boost prices to $3/gallon even if nothing goes wrong, though.

More later,

JZ

-- Jeff Zurschmeide (zursch@cyberhighway.net), September 14, 1999.

Eagle said:

>Jeff .... I think the basic, incorrect assumption your making , is that people who are cold/freezing (at least in the North), who can NOT explain to their hungry wifes/children why they failed to stock food, AND made MO contingency plans for this well known event, will THINK RATIONALLY!

I disagree - mostly, people rise to the occasion.

>Fear has a funny way of distorting reality AND reasoning.

As amply evidenced in this forum....

>At a time when people could be pulling together, they'll be pulling what little sembelance of civilization we have left APART .

What makes you so sure? I was living in the Santa Cruz mountains when the Loma Prieta earthquake hit in 1989. By the time I got home, my neighbors had already secured my home (turned off gas and water mains, etc) and collected my frightened pets. We all got together that evening and figured out our collective food and water situation, and had a party. Next day, we tore down all the damaged chimneys that were threatening to collapse into our homes and those of us with trucks went for plywood and other supplies to make temporary repairs.

In short, we pulled together and made sure everyone was at least taken care of. I expect the same thing to happen in my current neighborhood if there's any kind of disaster.

>Depending on how quickly things start to come "unglued" , I have a plan that I have been working on for years . You need an assembly point and mine will be the local church , which will ring it's church bells to announce an assembly for all those who were informed this fall that this would be the signal, in case of a " community problem/disaster ".

There's a church in my neighborhood - I'd expect any meetings to take place there, too.

>Luck, holding out alone, etc. etc. are for the bunker minded , mocho males in S of F magazine types . I'm too old for that !

I think it's pretty silly, too.

Brady said: >Two words: "shoes" and "clothes". Answers to your question: no, and no.

As has been said, we can do without a lot of new things for a long time before things get dire.

Troll said: >Governments cause famine.

Indeed. And I just don't think ours is out to starve us, so I'm not real worried about the issue here in Oregon.

Brian makes an excellent point: >I live in British Columbia Canada and when the Asia crisis hit we got nailed big time in the lumber and mining communities. Towns are shut down and don't expect to open again. The loss has been a personal TEOTWAWKI for LOTS of folk.

That's right - and it's hit here in Oregon, too. Which points up a big flaw (from the point of view of the working man) with the way lumber and resource industries work right now. Very few jobs are created when raw logs and resources are shipped overseas for processing (where the big value is added). Mills stand idle all over the PNW and people are out of work. But big bux are made by the bigwigs of the lumber companies, and they don't really care if a town or its inhabitants live or die when they're done plundering the area.

So, what does this mean for Y2K? Well, assuming foreign trade is out, at first there will be a bunch of layoffs and folks out of work - but the mistake in the TEOTWAWKI theory is that there is no response to this action and people immediately lock and load and go on the rampage. This is the faulty part of the theory, I think - I think that people will figure out something to do to keep themselves in beans and grits.

Hell, if the power is off, there'll be a helluva business going in firewood... and if we're really smart and fortunate, we'll have a good look at the way international business is done and protect ourselves from further plunder as it currently takes place.

Someone brought up the issue of capital, too - and how much capital it takes to start a business and tool up. The theory went that if there's no capital flow, no one can start a business. But capital is a fantastic thing in that it can flow even on a day when the bank isn't doing business, as long as everyone agrees that it flows.

For example - if I have a business making machine tools and perhaps a stock of same, and someone wants to tool up, my choices can be to front him the tools for money (or shares) later or to sit on my tools and demand capital right now before they leave my hands. If the latter decision keeps my capital idle, there's no win in it for me. The first choice may be risky, but the underlying assumption is that these will not be ordinary times. Right now, when cash is available, people demand it. When the choice comes to sitting tight or trying to get something positive together, I think most folks will try to get something positive going. I know I would, in that situation. I'd be out hustling with whatever I could for value.

The point is, people will adapt (people are really pretty good at that) and respond. Doom scenarios tend to rely on people not responding or adapting, but instead freaking out.

JZ

-- Jeff Zurschmeide (zursch@cyberhighway.net), September 14, 1999.