Hoping as always that the worst never hits, I have been thinking about how a mid-level scenario might look. Rather than the outright collapse of society or other nightmares, we could see a degradation of our economy acrosss the board, that might look more like what we see in the Russian economy.

If manufacturing and delivery are disrupted, we might see odd shortages and surpluses. For instance, there is no rice but all the Cream of Wheat you ever wanted in the store. No blue jeans, but lots of new Nikes.

Your bank wouldn't collapse, but would become very cumbersome to deal with- transactions taking days or weeks instead of seconds. There might be price and wage freezes or cutbacks.

This would be analogous to coming home and finding half your stuff stolen, but never all of anything. They took the keyboard, but not the monitor, all your left shoes are gone.

You get the picture- unpredictability. You would have to get what was available and barter it for the rest.

Do you folks have any interesting guesses as to what the economy would look like under those conditions?

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), September 13, 1999

Answers

When predators attack a herd the slowest and weakest die first, usually.

In business it is the same way, usually.

But, circumstances can shove a good runner onto a gopher hole and cause him to trip and become the predator's next meal.

Similarly, a well prepared electric company may fail because their coal shipment never arrived.

///

Alan Greenspan was asked his opinion of how the year two-thousand rollover might affect a typical American. His reply will have to be paraphrased...

"I think the typical American will be at home, and here something on the radio, possibly the television, something very disturbing, I say he should try not to panic. He sould try to remain calm."

///

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), September 13, 1999.

Saw this posted somewhere (here?)

Source: (1991) InSight, Syncrude Canada Ltd., Communications Divsion

IF 99% IS GOOD ENOUGH, THEN ...

- 12 newborns will be given to the wrong parents daily.

- 268,500 defective tires will be shipped this year.

- 103,260 income tax returns will be processed incorrectly this year.

- 811,000 faulty rolls of 35mm film will be loaded this year.

- 14,208 defective personal computers will be shipped this year.

- 2,488,200 books will be shipped in the next 12 months with the wrong cover.

- Two plane landings daily at O' Hare International Airport in Chicago will be unsafe.

- 3,056 copies of tomorrow's Wall Street Journal will be missing one of the three sections.

- 18,322 pieces of mail will be mishandled in the next hour.

- 291 pacemaker operations will be performed incorrectly this year.

- 880,000 credit cards in circulation will turn out to have incorrect cardholder information on their magnetic strip.

- $761,900 will be spent in the next 12 months on tapes and CDs that will not play.

- 55 malfunctioning automatic teller machines will be installed in the next 12 months.

- 20,000 incorrect drug prescription will be written in the next 12 months.

- 114,500 mismatched pairs of shoes will be shipped this year.

- 107 incorrect medical procedures will be performed by the end of the day today.

- 315 entries in Webster's Third New International Dictonary of the English Language will be misspelled.

- $9,690 will be spent every day on defective, often unsafe sporting equipment.

- 2,000,000 documents will be lost by the IRS this year.

- 22,000 checks will be deducted from the wrong bank accounts in the next 60 minutes.

- Homes would be without electricity, heat, water, and telephone service for 15 minutes every day.

- Every page of the telephone directory would contain four wrong numbers.

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), September 13, 1999.

"For want of a rider,

the war was lost..."

We are in some serious trouble in the instances cited above. So for your pleasure, a little apropo Kipling

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,

I make my proper prostrations to the gods of the market place.

Peering through reverent fingers, I watch them flourish and fall.

But the gods of the copybook headings, I notice, outlast them all.

+ + +

We were living in trees when they met us, and showed us each in turn

That water would certainly wet us and fire would certainly burn.

But we found them lacking uplift, vision, and depth of mind.

So we left them to teach the gorillas as we followed the march of mankind.

+ + +

We moved as the spirit listed; they never altered their pace,

Being neither cloud- nor wind-borne like the gods of the market place.

But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come

That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

+ + +

With the hopes that our world is built on, they were utterly out of touch.

They denied that the moon is Stilton; they denied that she's even Dutch.

They denied that wishes were horses, they denied that pigs had wings.

So we worshipped the gods of the market, who promised these beautiful things.

+ + +

When the Cambrian measures were forming, they promised perpetual peace.

They swore, if we lay down our weapons, the wars of the tribes would cease.

But when we disarmed they sold us, and delivered us bound to our foe.

And the gods of the copybook headings said, "Stick to the devil you know."

+ + +

On the first Feminian sandstones, they promised the fuller life,

Which started by loving our neighbour, and ended by loving his wife.

'til our women had no more children, and our men lost reason and faith.

And the gods of the copybook headings said, "The wages of sin is death."

+ + +

In the Caboniferous Epoch, they promised abundance for all

By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul.

And though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy.

And the gods of the copybook headings said, "If you don't work, you die."

+ + +

Then the gods of the market tumbled, and their smooth tounged wizards withdrew.

And the hearts of the meanest were humbled, and began to believe it was true:

That all is not gold that glitters, and two and two make four.

And the gods of the copybook headings limped up to explain it once more.

+ + +

That as it will be in the future, it was at the dawn of man.

Only four things certain since social progress began:

That a dog return to its vomit, and a sow returns to her mire,

And the burnt fool's bandaged finger, goes wobbling back to the fire.

+ + +

When all this has been accomplished, and a brave new world begins,

Where all men are paid for existing, and no man must pay for his sins,

As surely as water will wet us, and as surely as fire will burn,

The gods of the copybook headings with terror and slaughter return.

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 13, 1999.

Wouldn't it be amusing if progress (such as it is) died, and the world started regressing ass backwards to who's know what kind of primitive state. Imagine us de-evolving from diesel locomotives to steam locomotives, from personel cars to bicycles, from rocket ships to sailing ships, from factory made shoes to car tire sandles, etc., etc. If most people have food, shelter, and work this new trend probably wouldn't be to bad. After all, if say, the entertainment media goes down the drain we can just go watch the local women mudwrestling or something. I mean do scientist really a billion dollar spacecraft to take picture of Urannus--hey, let 'em use a Polaroid camera like everybody:)

-- Cigarette Smoking Man (csm@smoke.com), September 14, 1999.

I think your scenario here is the most likely. Not that others can't or wont' happen; it's just that this is where the middle of my y2k "prediction curve" lies.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), September 14, 1999.

Oops! Screwed up the last sentance--hey, smoke got into my eye(.)

I mean do scientists really need a billion dollar spacecraft to take pictures of Uranus--hey, let 'em use a Polaroid camera like everybody:)

-- Cigarette Smoking Man (csm@smoke.com), September 14, 1999.