Pollys, Doomers and Middlings, This is what is going to happen; and those of you who have studied Y2K already know this. At the rollover, very little. The Pollys will be yeehawing and celebrating. As days turn into weeks, the failures here and there will begin to take it's toll on other economies. The troubles with these others will begin to effect our country. Shortages will begin and rationing of some products or commodities will take place. The markets will have many more down days than ups and investor confidence will erode. The market snowball will grow but I have not been given the knowledge as to what extent. yes, Yourdan will be correct afterall in his prediction of a recession. Big-time Pollys will eat lots of crow; but the Doomers will not be correct either. I hope you didn't go into to much debt hoping you would't have to pay it back; you will! The government is not going to collapse and unfortunately that includes the IRS. Midlings will be the real winners. Your preps will not go in vain and you didn't hock the house. That's the way it going to be; write it down; bet on it.

-- Just Daniel (Daniel@Lionsden.net), September 11, 1999

Answers

If shortages and rationing happens, that means a whole sh*t load of stuff will be in short supply because we import almost everything. If we have more down days than up days in the market, that means that investors will have lost everything and only those rich enough to be privvy before the fall will get out before they lose. Someone is going to take it in the shorts, and I willing to bet that the "doomers and the midlings," will be far better off having something than nothing. The Polly's may even come out smelling like a rose, they can always hit the government up for a handout.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 11, 1999.

I would like to thank everyone for the support while I did my time as fry boy at Burger King. After days of waiting and hoping, I finally got the call, thats right I am now in charge of clean up at Denny's. If you have time stop by and see me.

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), September 11, 1999.

Daniel,

Weeeeeeeee! Now we can turn this into a three-camp, free-for-all! What fun!

Just one question: Who are the team Captains?

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), September 11, 1999.

When the banks collapse dumbass all bets are off.

Think about it.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 11, 1999.

Bokonon, Why are guys always thinking in terms of "Captains"?

Anyway, Just Daniel, Haven't you heard yet? NO ONE KNOWS what's going to happen. NO ONE.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

Hmm. Maybe. Here's another possible scenario:

In October, D'are Bonkers will begin ruminations about the impending market crash. Paul Davis will repost the "DOW at 32000 by 2001" theory but it will go over like a lead balloon. They will blame the crisis on the fear mongering and irrational 401K adjustments of the doom and gloom crowd.

In November, the pollies will nervously start planning to stockpile food and supplies. They will join the ranks of millions of sheeple, most of whom will be trapped in the glaring headlights of the approaching enigma (yes, this enigma has headlights). They will blame the doom and gloom crowd for hoarding basic necessities and unnecessarily causing shortages.

In December, CPR, Decker, Hoff, Flint, ah, scratch Flint...he already bailed, will anxiously realize that the money supply is being depleted and a clamor will begin about the need to have extra cash. After negotiating long lines at the banks, they will be surprised to learn that withdrawal limits have been imposed. They will blame it on the doom and gloom crowd who conspired to bring down the fractional reserve system.

Then as Ed Yourdon predicted earlier this year, the gradual unwinding of today's business efficiencies in 2000, combined with the collapse of the "bubble mania" economy, will mark the beginning of a 10 year depression. Slowly but surely the media, stock market speculators, government officials and the average person will be exposed to the true nature of y2k. They will find that it is indeed a timebomb, but one whose detonation does not take place on a particular date, but rather is an explosion in slow motion, the effects of which are frighteningly cumulative.

-- a (a@a.a), September 11, 1999.

I want a Double Slam with extra sausage!

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockd), September 11, 1999.

Mara,

I would say it probably has something to do with an obsession about "little soldiers", but would that constitute being too crude?

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), September 11, 1999.

My scenario: Things stay pretty much the way they are now, all through October, November and December. No major Y2K event occurs so the sheep stay asleep. There is a certain amount of nervousness the last week in December and some stockpiling but not enough to disrupt things.

On rollover there are some major infrastructure failures overseas but our power grid and banks stay up, though there are localized power problems. As soon as the news reports start coming in about the overseas power failures, gov't agency failures and banking failures, the worry here turns into alarm and then into panic, with desperate food hoarding and bank runs. After a week or two, our own Y2K failures start to mount, the banks are toast and so is our current way of life. It takes a good ten years to come back to something we can recognize as normal.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), September 12, 1999.

this is for cody.........pass the damn joint!

-- Vern (bacon17@ibm.net), September 12, 1999.

Y2K really annoys the insiders, the establishment, the Tri Lats-- because it's the only thing they can't control, & it threatens to cripple or destroy all their controls. They firmly control the mega- banks, global money system, mega-media, all major political parties (on both sides in every nation), & the multi-nationals. But Y2K snuck up on them, & they're mad & scared. They're desperately spending billions to try to "fix" it but they know it can't be totally fixed, perhaps not ever. It will also be a major setback for Big Brother, in all its aspects, from tax collection to bank rule to centralized bureaucracy & monitoring. As a result, the average person will get a lot of unexpected benefits from Y2K. Some are hoping for a worst-case scenario. "However painful, it's a worthwhile cost to regain individual freedom" they say, in essence. Freedom has never been free.

If U don't really feel Y2K is going to be a BIG DEAL, & if therefore it annoys or upsets U to read data reports from people who say it probably IS going to be a big deal, then don't bother to read this article. Skip on to the next one. Mostly, people aren't changing their minds, are decided re Y2K. If U are a new subscriber, U should read this so U see what we consider the critical/updated facts. Unless U get heavy/daily Y2K updated hard data (as we do) then it would be puzzling how U can decide either way--without all the new daily facts. But most people are deciding emotionally, not objectively, not factually. That's their option, even if subconscious. So, read on or not, as U choose.

For those few who are still reading (:-), here's the latest: Many are comforted to hear that govt & biz have Y2K "contingency plans." Instead, that glib phrase should scare them. Think about it! If all govt depts, banks, biz, military, airports, hospitals who claim they are Y2K- compliant (as most now claim) were really bug-resistant, why would they need vast contingency plans? "Contingency" isn't just a throwaway word; it means something, ie, what we'll do if our individual company/bureau/system breaks down.

They're spending massive money on contingency plans, which means they've little confidence in their claims they're fully Y2K- compliant. Some have thrown in the towel, admit they can't get compliant in time, & will rely mainly on contingency plans. At least they're honest. That can't be said for the blowhard bluffers who are hoping to con people they're foolproof. Fools, yes. Foolproof: unlikely. Only a minority submit to audits of their repair/test/compliance claims.

Many insiders admit they're far behind schedule & will be on a "fix- on-fault" basis in 2000, ie they'll fix/repair embedded chip/computer/system breakdowns if/as they occur. That means after trouble. The catch is: how do they get back up if the whole system is down? Bottom line: the world is one big web of contingency plans & fix-on-fault. Nobody is 100% safe/compliant, because it's impossible to attain. And that is fact, spoken by the world's leading engineering group. US Senate Y2K Report: "Y2K is not going to be just another 'bump in the road.' No, it's going to be one of the most serious & potentially devastating events the US has ever encountered." Govts tend to soft-pedal bad news, so that statement should be a wake-up call to many. Turn up your hearing aid!

The BIS (Bank for Int'l Settlements, Basel, Switzerland) is the central bank for all other central banks. Their Y2K view is not cheerful. In a fat report they say "some problems will be missed; new problems will be inadvertently introduced via the remediation process; even the best test programs may not detect all potential errors; uncertainty will remain up to & after Jan 1. In other words, it is inevitable there will be Y2K disruption, athough it's not possible to predict how serious or widespread this disruption will be."

So there U have it. Central banks will go into 2000 not knowing if these systems are fixed. They know most are not fixed, worldwide. Compare BIS language to your local bank's PR rubbish. The BIS report goes on in great detail. If U read it all U lose any shred of optimism. The general threat is a breakdown of the inter-bank payments system. And once down, how to get it back up? BIS says: Y2K is "unlike any other disruption problem where identical backup sites can be activated. But any uncorrected Y2K problem is likely to affect both sites so the backup would not be a contingency."

It gets worse. BIS, who says what neither private banks nor govt banks dare to say, reveals: "The inability of a major payment & settlement system to function smoothly, or have procedures for isolating problems, will intensify uncertainty/concern. In the extreme case, this could have repercussions throughout the global & domestic systems." Conclusion: the world economy is at acute risk. This is not some "doom/gloom" offbeat writer's view; it's the bluest of the blue chip banks. If your hair hasn't turned grey so far, read the following:

The BIS advises banks to get the home phone numbers of regulators & govt officials so they can be contacted at night or on weekends to discuss the prudence of "closing markets & declaring an emergency financial bank holiday." This is scarier than any Y2K newsletter writer (except Gary North) has dared to say. And it's the real thing! U see, if banks go down, there can be no stock/bond/property mkt, or any other mkt, except black mkts of course, using cash. And all this is separate from equal risks from no power, oil, water, & no phones/fax/e-mail. U don't like this? Does that mean it can't happen? Or can it happen even if U don't like it? Try to separate wish from reality. Author Dr.Edward Yardeni, chief economist/global investmnt strategist at Deutsche Banc-Alex Brown has come back from Y2K retirement & says: "Y2K summary: Most have eyes wide shut....My prediction for a global recession in 2000, at 70% odds remains...Stock mkt down 10-30% (that's 1-3000 DJIA pts). Recession major causes: breakdown in just-in-time manufacturing system, & in global oil industry. Y2K could cause another energy crisis." (I'm virtually sure of it--HS)

EY notes Y2K press coverage is childish, reports the good news press releases, make no comment, ask no questions. "Some frame Y2K as an all-or-nothing story. Either planes fall out of sky or nothing happens. None consider in between. Anyone who talks in between is lumped into the doomsday category & dismissed as far-fetched..Public is led to believe the casual assurances of the few means everyone will be ready. EY says: "Y2K will turn out to be the greatest story never told--- properly." Reporters squeeze answers out of politicians thought to be in hanky-panky, but never ask ONE question about any Y2K report by anyone in banks/govt/biz.

Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, US Inspector General,testified in Senate: Half of 161 nations assessed are reported at medium-to high- risk re Y2K failures in telecommunications, energy &/or transport. Her strong conclusion: "The global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, & at every economic level. The risk of disruption will likely extend to int'l trade, where a breakdown in any part of the global supply chain would have a serious impact on the US & world economies." Now, tell me dear readers, WHY doesn't TV & the press tell U this? My answer: the banks won't let them. Maybe U have a different answer?

As I reported before, the US State Dept will issue Y2K travel advice in Sept. 3 cheers to USSD for integrity in this regard. But it will shock a lot of people. The penny will finally drop. US govt Y2K topdog Koskinen says the US is considering evacuating US citizens from nations with widespread Y2K failures. Each ambassador will make that decision. More than a penny is dropping now. More like a silver dollar. I've only scratched the surface of all there is to report. What bothers me most is the nuclear power plant risks, a global risk, at least in the northern hemisphere. But I can't cover it all. And most people don't even want to hear it.

I'm optimistic that Y2K will paralyze most tax collecting computer systems to such an extent that govts will quickly switch from the income tax to a sales tax (the only fair system), which isn't computer complex & will allow govt to function, ie, bring in money, their 1st concern, 1 of the Holy Trinity of govts (the other 2: power & control).

Every credible Y2K writer accuses govts/banks/biz of lying about the problem & their readiness. But it is left to humourist Art Buchwald to wrap it up in a recent column that concluded: "Fibbing is what Y2K is all about." Many a sober truth is spoken in jest. If U don't take my Y2K advice, take advice from cartoon character Dennis the Menace, who recently told his mother: "We should be stocking up on cookies for Y2K." Make mine ginger snaps! :-)

Harry Schultz

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 12, 1999.

Cody, starting in mid December the masses will prepare for the "3 day storm". They'll all withdraw (or attempt to) $500 from the ATM's (that's max withdrawals on most ATM's), and rush to 7-11 and clean out the water/bread/milk/frozen dinners ailes.

If we believe the polls, 70% of Americans will do just that. I'm not worried about the 7-11's, but the cash?...

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 12, 1999.

Andy,

They ought to evacuate US citizens from the US. I wonder where we can all go... Hey, these's a lot of land left in Russia... cold though.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 12, 1999.

Regardless of what happens at the rollover, one or two terrorist events on US soil before Jan 1. will send the whole population into a frenzy. Guaranteed. That is a surefire way to create instant shortages, and a good reason to prep.

-- Mr T. (treader@dawn.net), September 13, 1999.