Just got this email this morning, which coincided with our decision to pull the plug on our small Y2K business (a cookbook) due to lack of interest. I'm wondering, does anyone know of any other businesses which are failing because of a fading concern over the issue over the public? When I say fading concern, I'm talking about the recent CNN poll which stated that there are only 7% of the nation is concerned that Y2K will bring major problems, as opposed to 14% who had that opinion last December (at least I think it was last December). Anyway, opinions? Anecdotes? Also, will someone please tell me what BITR stands for (bite in the rear?)

Here's the article I received:

HOLD OFF ON THAT FOOD ORDER!

Y2K Newswire has learned that a large food storage company is currently in negotiations to sell off $600,000 in food inventory. But if the deal falls through, they're going to OFFLOAD the entire inventory to the public at deep, deep discounts. Y2K Newswire has been told a one-year food package might go for as little as $500! The owner is keeping us posted to allow Y2K Newswire members first shot at the inventory.

Whether the deal goes through -- or falls through -- we'll be bringing you the details. Expect events to unfold no later than next week.

Watch your e-mail closely for a members-only Y2K Newswire announcement. News like this will spread quickly. You can expect their phone lines to be jammed within 24 hours after they announce the sale prices.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 11, 1999

Answers

I should note that I am not a member of Y2K Newswire. This simply popped into my box, sent to me by someone on another board, who received it from yet another person somewhere else. May want to check it out for yourself before getting too excited.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

Lordie, Lordie, what a mess of typos. My apologies. You get the gist.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

I think the bigger question here is how many small businesses in general are going to have significant problems next year because of the "bump-in-the-road" message being promoted by authorities. If the general public doesn't understand that Y2K is an issue that needs to be taken seriously, then small businesses made up of average folks aren't going to understand that their businesses need to be checked for compliance too.

Small business people could get a lot of busy signals next year and may end up on a long list of those waiting for weeks or months for the patches or upgrades that they need.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 11, 1999.

Bump-in-the-road! Thank you, Linkmeister. Should have thought about that myself, although I like my version better.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

I just ordered $300 in MREs, so it's not my fault. (Anyway, some of those Y2K foods don't look so great.)

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

CD,

Is it possible that this is just a scheme to sell a lot of inventory in a short time-frame? It has the ring of certain going-out-of- business television commercials...

Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), September 11, 1999.

The FDIC expects a 15% Bankruptcy filing rate by Bank borrowers next year.

With this economy resembling a race car at 160 mph, ANY BITR at all will flip it into a major wreck!!

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), September 11, 1999.

In our case, Andy, nope, I'm afraid not. We put our hearts and souls into the business, and the tiny amount of money we could scrape together $3000. Tomorrow we're taking the whole mess to the flea market and being done with it. If you know who I am, and what my site is, don't go there. We'll be taking it down soon. I'll then move it to a non-commercial ISP, so that people can still get our recipes up until the rollover for free....As far as these other people go, I have no idea.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

Hi CD,

Not sure if this helps, but FWIW here'e a couple snips from a story I posted yesterday:

"It is not only possible, but probable, that there are going to be food shortages.''

"The Internet has hundreds of new food sites aimed at Y2K survival"

"Meanwhile, seed manufacturers and nurseries are reporting a large increase in the number of people growing vegetable gardens and putting away food for the winter this year."

This says to me that maybe more people are quietly preparing than we think.

Good luck CD.

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 11, 1999.

Thank you, Sysman. The thought is definitely appreciated. I'm actually curious to see what happens tomorrow at the flea market. My signs are all ready, merchandise loaded into the minivan. Will my stuff get blank stares only? Or will some people actually GI? If anything is a picture of Joe Sixpack, it's the Wagonwheel Flea Market.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

CD--Cookbooks are a hard sell item. I have several hundred in my collection and no more room for anymore. While your idea is a good one, I'm betting that ITSHTF, that most people wouldn't even know how to read a cookbook. Why do you suppose we have so many fast food restaurants, supermarket fast food sections, hamburger/pasta helpers, and huge frozen food sections in grocery stores? Ever since home economics was taken out of schools, the American diet has become boxed macaroni and cheese and Big Macs. I wish you lots of luck in getting rid of your books. I saw 5 box fulls of "100 Ways to Cook Zucchini," cookbooks at the thrift store the other day for 25 cents each.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 11, 1999.

I go to a neighborhood flea/swap market and set up in west Phoenix. I put out a good variety of things...mostly new liquidation items. At the surplus show in Vegas last month I ordered y2k/camping items to sell at the market. My prices are very cheap and half of the lookers buy something. I have sold very little of the y2k type items.

You would think 4 way solar-crank-flashlight radios at $18. would jump off the table. BTW at least a thousand people have looked last weekend and today. A potty seat & lid that snaps on a 5 gal plastic bucket ($8.). I have not sold one of either. I sell lots of tarps, batteries, rope, bungies, knives, etc. that people need, y2k or not.

Based on my experiences at the swap, most people now know a bit about what y2k means, but very..very few plan to make any preparations.

If the y2k type items do not sell, I know what my friends and relatives are getting for Xmas.

-- tc (trashcan-man@webtv.net), September 11, 1999.

Maybe the buying spree is overwith and those that are GIs are finished preparing. Hold onto your stuff TC because there's a good chance that the closer we get to Y2K, the more valuable your supplies will become.

-- rasty (rasty@bulldoggg.com), September 11, 1999.

Sorry it did not work out for you CD.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), September 11, 1999.

For what it's worth, companies set up for the purpose of helping others with remediation (csy2k called these 5-guy-COBOL Inc.) mostly did terribly, and the few that are left are desperately trying to diversify into other areas of consulting expertise, with limited success.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), September 11, 1999.

Flint, is it because the remediation work is done or the lack of corporation funds to remediate is not there or does it mean that there's too many programmers and not enough work?

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 11, 1999.

Thank you, everyone, for your kind thoughts. It is very reassuring to know that if TSHTF, there will be people out there like you, and that we will not be alone.

But, okay, enough mushiness. What I can't get over is the absolute eerie lack of concern among the populace. If I wasn't witness to it myself, day after day, I would never believe it.

I started out as a science fiction and fantasy writer, and anyone who's been a part of that crowd knows how much these people love escape. They want to imagine living in any other place or time than their own. But why, when all they have to do is look around these days and see the parallels to the stuff of their own stories exist right here, right now? To make an analogy, if this were a fantasy novel, the U.S. would be a mighty nation that had been lulled into a spell of forgetfulness by some power with a larger purpose, nefarious or not. To me, if is just too fantastic.

Those of us who watch these boards and trawl the net for info, a change in the wind, etc., have started to see stronger and stronger hints that problems could REALLY, ACTUALLY lay ahead, (i.e. the 9.9.99 interconnectivity bank problems, the gov. report card, the nuke plants falling behind), and yet the silence in the media continues.

Even if you want to take the polly position on this, why aren't more journalists looking into the matter to debunk it in depth, instead of regurgitating press releases? How can anything so potentially massive remain so unobstrusive in, and unexplored by, the collective unconscious?

I have always considered myself to be someone who stood for reason and rationality. Never, before have I thought of myself as a tinfoil, yet here I am, wearing the hat for all to see. To me it is absolutely unpardonable that the present administration has not only taken the course of dissuading Americans from preparing, but goes so far as to essentially ridicule those who do. We aren't nuts! Well, at least most of us aren't, and none of us are all the time.

To my way of thinking Clinton and Koskinen are taking a risk which will potentially impact more lives in negative way than Truman's decision to bomb Japan, or Hitler's atrocities against the Jews, Poles, Russians and Gypsies, combined. For what? So that our present chief executive will have a chance at going down as the worst president in the history of the U.S.?

Either they truly do know that no major disruptions are in store for us, or else they are engaging in the greatest act of hubris the modern world will ever see.

For all of you pollies out there, make a copy of this tirade. If nothing happens next year, please feel free to send it back my way. I will pleasantly sit down to a bowl of pasta a la crow. I sincerely hope I'll be eating it.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 11, 1999.

I think you are assuming that small business people are stupid or something Linkmeister. They are not. EVERY sme is very aware of y2k and its potential. Most have taken the rational approach of evaluating spend big money now, or waiting to see what will happen (because risk is very low to them).

As for the original question, I think I agree most with andy ray, it looks like another stunt from Mike Adams. Does that man have *ANY* morals? Isn't 400,000$ enough for 1 year?

-- SME (SME@SME.SME), September 12, 1999.

I had bookmarked a site for a 2000 watt diesel generator DEK? for around $1400 sold by a survival company in Dade City Fl. The website disappeared. I hacked off the end letters and got to the main site. The company was going out of business due to a lack of orders and was attempting to pay money owed and to process existing orders. Its a shame. A small diesel generator that would run perhaps 3 or 4 hrs. on a gallon and not enough buyers to keep it going.

-- Tom (Tom@notstupid.gom), September 12, 1999.

My son and I stopped by an Army Surplus store today and I asked the store owner if there's been a slack off of Y2K buying. He admitted that there has been and he doesn't know what to do with 300 water barrels that he ordered a few months back. He said he has sold only 50 out of 350 ordered. I also noticed that he had a lot of items on sale that he normally didn't have on sale before. So maybe it looks like those who are aware have already prepared and are now just sitting and waiting. I also stopped by WalMart today and they had lots of oil lamps, wicks, SPAM, etc.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 12, 1999.

tc, do you ever sell via UPS delivery? Sounds as if you have some good things at good prices that others would be interested in having. This is my real e-mail address, so if that appeals to you, please contact me. Thanks!

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), September 13, 1999.

Bardou, ask your friend at the surplus store if he has considered shipping these barrels. There are NO barrels to be found by my friends in Northern VA, either at WalMart or anywhere else. Those sold by certain firms are far too expensive for them to purchase. He might have a sale here. This is my real e-mail, if he is interested.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), September 13, 1999.

This quote by John Koskinen about small businesses is worth repeating again:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000n8Y

[snip]

We are running events in the United States focusing on small businesses, trying to provide them technical information, trying to encourage them to take action in the face of what we find increasingly is a position where many of them are saying they're simply going to wait, see what breaks, and then they will fix it once it's broken. We are trying to tell them that that's a very high risk roll of the dice, because when they go to get the fix, whether it's an upgrade in their software or a replacement for the software or the hardware, it will be obvious what the fix is, everyone will know how to do it, but the risk is, they will be at the end of a very long line of other people who waited to see what broke and then decided to fix it. And the fix will work just fine when it arrives, but it may not arrive until March, April or May of the year 2000, and these companies and governments and those who decided to wait and see may find that they're going to be severely challenged in continuing their operations while they're waiting for that fix to arrive.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 14, 1999.

Elaine: I will make a phone call tomorrow and get some info. Where are you located? bardou

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 14, 1999.

I don't know of any small business that can hold on until until they get it fixed and they are the last ones in line for a fix. Small business failures on an average are high even without any computer problem.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 14, 1999.