I was watching CNN Headline news this morning. They said it's going to cost roughly 30% more to heat your home; here's the real kicker. They are predicting a much more severe winter than last year's. How can they predict that it's going to be a much "worse" winter...although, why shouldn't this surprise me. I guess I better go out and get a few more gallons of kerosine and keeping stocking onthe wood pile.

-- Marsha (MSykes@court.co.macon.il.us), September 08, 1999

Answers

Did they say it was going to much worse in terms of weather... or something else perhaps?

-- Were (going@to.freeze), September 08, 1999.

They were referring to weather, as in we are going to freeeeeze.

-- Marsha Sykes (MSykes@court.co.macon.il.us), September 08, 1999.

I did not see the CNN report, but regarding winter weather, last winter was an El Nino winter, relatively warm in many places; next winter will be a La Nina winter, relatively cold in many places.

Regarding expectations about forthcoming heating bills, you might find the article at this link interesting:

Heating bills

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 08, 1999.

Heating bills link

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 08, 1999.

Price of oil is going up about $1 per barrel per week. Don't count on just 30%. Of course with Y2K that could all be irrevelant.

-- Goldbug (Goldbug@Mint.com), September 08, 1999.

Jerry B, I beg to differ on your El Nino assessment. Actually, we had a La Nina in place this last winter...and it was warm. Although its done a lot, it is incorrect to assume El Nino = warm NE US winter so La Nina = cold NE winters. Analog studies do NOT bear this out. The coldest winters in the Eastern US are when neither an El Nino or La Nina are in place. On a related note - La Ninas do generally spawn an increase in hurricane activity which we are now seeing. I think a more accurate long term forecasting tool are sunspot cycles but the complexities of this are beyound the realm of this forum. After watching and trading weather expectations in energy markets for over 15 years, I have found very little reliability in long term outlooks. "We've had a whole string of warmer than normal winters...we're due for a cold one" is unfortunately as accurate an long term assessment as any.

If you have the capacity to store heating oil or kero... get in and safely stock up early. Seasonally, we usually get a preseason price run up in Aug and Sept due to hurricane season and refinery turnarounds. We usually always get one preseason price washout in Nov or so as refineries come back up off turnarounds and start cracking out full production before the winter demand hits,but all bets are off this year. In the 4th quarter, I think we'll look back fondly on these current oil economics...

-- Downstreamer (Downstream@bigfoot.com), September 08, 1999.

You know it will be a damn COLD winter. There is a chance of power going off and Murphy will be right there waiting...

Murphy go away...

barkin'...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), September 08, 1999.

Gas prices in my area have risen 41% since their early year lows. You might take a minute if you remember your low prices and calculate for yourselves what % they have risen.

CNN is soft peddling this increase. It will be considerably more than 30% and will come sooner than March.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 08, 1999.

Maybe the weather they are talking about is on the INSIDE of your home. It is likely to be much more severe this winter, but not until January.

-- semper paratus (always@ready.here), September 08, 1999.

I must agree that the increase is likely to be more than 30%...if rationing is not instituted. The mechanism (for rationing) is already in place for Hawaii...

It is of interest that our gas prices have remained stable, while those of the mainland have been rising. Gas in Northern California is actually more expensive than here (for a change!).

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 08, 1999.

Here in Oil/Gas production country we are expecting prices to continue rising and we have already seen a colder than normal August and September. Wet and cool August and Sept indicated a cold winter comming. I must agree it appears that La Nina winter will hit this year and hard.

cool.winter@canada.ab.ca

-- Cool hand lou (cool.winter@canada.ab.ca), September 08, 1999.

Downstreamer,

The impression that I get from various discussions of El Nino/La Nina, is that there is about an 8 - 9 month lag from the inception of one or the other (using a thirty day moving average of the "southern oscillation index" as the indicator of a switch), and the occurance of large scale effects on weather in various parts of the US. From this view, the SOI indicated a switch from El Nino to La Nina around June/July of 1998, which should have led to continuing warmer than average temps up until about March 1999. I'm still trying to find stats on actual vs average temps in various parts of the country to see how they fit.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 08, 1999.

NOAA and NWS long range forecasts http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov/products/predictions/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/index .html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seas onal_outlooks/color/index.html

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), September 08, 1999.

We'll be lucky if oil only goes up 30%.

1a. Y2K is Real.

1b. Y2K is a sub-set of the millenium problem.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), September 08, 1999.

Here's the URL for the Oregon Climate Service's prediction for a "La Nina" winter: http://www.ocs.orst.edu/reports/wint99/wint99.html Cold and wet!

-- Norm Harrold (nharrold@tymewyse.com), September 08, 1999.

Just lookin' at paper to see yesterday's closes on the Commodities Futures Market-- Light Sweet Crude Oil (1000 gal @ dollars per barrel) for Oct99 del'y: $22.61; for Mar00 del'y: $21.96. Heating Oil (42,000 gal @ cents per gal) for Oct99 del'y: 59.09; for Mar00 del'y: 57.30.

-- Dewer Dye (qwerty@!!!!.com), September 08, 1999.