What you need to think about as the year 2000 approaches

Tuesday, August 31, 1999

By JENNIFER BUNKER
Guest commentary

"Take charge of your own Y2K life," Sen. Bob Bennett said at a St. George Y2K town meeting a couple weeks ago.

That was the senator's parting advice regarding the potential of widespread Y2K disruptions. The senator, who is the chairman of the Senate Special Committee for the year 2000 Problem, knows more about the technicalities of Y2K disruptions that any other politician around. He and his committee have been studying the problem for years.

He will tell you, as will anybody well versed in Y2K, that the only thing we truly know about Y2K is that we don't know what will happen. There is enough technical evidence, as well as private and public spending ($800 billion at last count) that suggests that Y2K can, and will, affect you personally in some way. Let's examine the possibilities using the three-pronged approach of the Utah Governor's Coalition for Y2K Preparedness materials.

Become aware that Y2K will affect you to some degree.

As a programmer, analyst, and an information technology professor with a committee chairposition on the Utah Governor's Coalition for Y2K Preparedness, a member of the White House's Community Conversations bi- monthly teleconference, a member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Roundtable of Government Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations and a citizen advocate who spends a good deal of time in Washington and internationally working with Y2K hard- hitters, allow me to present some Y2K facts that I have uncovered in my travels. These may help you to understand how Y2K may affect you.

Did you know that:

If your local grocery store received no more shipments from this minute forward, it would be out of food and other essential items within 48 hours?

Increasing numbers of insurance companies will no longer cover "Y2K related" claims.

Essential services (fire, police, ambulance) may not be able to reach you in three minutes in the event of a wide scale outage or disaster?

You rely upon an average of 75 computers every day (traffic lights, electricity, electronic locks, etc.) even if you don't own a PC?

If power fails for a long enough period, some Utah power agencies dependent upon backup generators are planning on "rationing" power to customers for possibly two to four hours per day?

The real concern about Y2K is not computer hardware, but the reactions that people may have when they perceive a system has failed.

An old Johnny Carson show presents us with an excellent example to illustrate my last point.

In 1972, as a prelude to a joke, he announced that the United States was having a toilet paper shortage. People watching from all over the U.S. took this information seriously, and raced out to stock up on toilet paper. Then, as the word spread and other people arrived to stock up, they discovered empty shelves where toilet paper once sat. The ensuing three-week shortage was nothing more than a man-made event, a self-fulfilling prophecy that caused real life disruptions and inconveniences.

Herein lies the real problem of Y2K: We are drastically dependent upon the systems that we have set up to sustain our life- styles and ourselves. Under normal operations, these systems will serve us well. However, if even a small percentage of the people in the system suddenly change their behavior, the system itself will become weakened and maybe even fail completely. This is where it is critical that we understand who we are "in system."

These systems that we are so drastically dependent upon are widely run because of the efficiency and cost effectiveness that computers so easily afford us.

Not only does this include the hardware itself, but also embedded systems and software, some of which could be affected by date calculations gone wrong. Beyond this concern, however, is the possibility that data with corrupted integrity will be passed between systems. This means that even if a system is considered "Y2K ready" it is not immune to receiving bad data from another less ready system. In this way, experts are predicting that systems hooked together could pass bad data to each other like a string of Christmas lights knocked out by a bad light at the beginning of the string.

We aren't independent

No business, person, or system is an island. Like it or not, we are dependent upon these interdependent systems to sustain us, and therefore, we are dependent upon each other's behavior and choices within those systems to ensure continued safe operation of those systems.

Does becoming aware also mean becoming scared? No, it means becoming prepared to the best of our abilities for things unforeseen down the road. It means understanding how to best serve the system, so that the system can best serve you.

Prepare for self-sufficiency in Y2K or any type of disruption or disaster.

The press is fond of printing two kinds of reactions to Y2K: The "it's just a conspiracy and I'm not worried about it" reaction, or the "head for hills with ammo, food and family in tow" story.

In most instances there are many Utah families and communities engaging quietly in peaceful preparedness for potential Y2K problems. They know that Y2K is not "nothing" but a "something" that may call for families to become more self-reliant while experts work out computer and system bugs that may continue to plague us beyond the year 2000. Preparing sensibly is not a terribly interesting story that sells papers, but is happening in large numbers across our state.

You may choose the "head in the sand" approach (Somebody else will fix it. Yes, they will but not in time) or the "run for the hills approach (you can try to abandon the systems that you rely on and the people in them, but ultimately you will not be able to disconnect from the rest of us totally. Besides, how long can you continually stand guard over your "stuff" before you finally fall asleep?) Or, you can choose to understand who you are "in system" and gradually store up items that you may need during a shortage.

How much to store? We hear many recommendations from organizations that if people prepare for Y2K as if they would for a winter storm, about 72 hours, then that will suffice. Yes, it will, if disruptions go on for only that long!

But what if they go on for a week, or two weeks or four weeks? You will be hungry and thirsty and cold, having long gone through your three days worth of rations.

My advice is to store food and water and anything else critical for your survival for as long as you possibly can. Begin storing these things now, and do it gradually, so that you will nurture along the supply system. If we all were to wait until November or December to store essentials, the system simply could not handle that kind of abnormal demand and could possibly collapse.

Making it easier

If you become a "system thinker" you will discover that preparation decision-making becomes easier. (See "Governor's Coalition for Y2K Preparedness Personal and Community Preparation Guidelines" for specific recommendations).

You have life and health insurance, not because you expect to be sick or die, but just in case. Why not take out some Y2K insurance as well?

Be there. Preparing together is the only way to keep each other, and therefore ourselves, safe and secure.

Paloma O'Riley, co-founder of the Cassandra Project, the world's most influential Y2K preparedness organization reminds us, "Individual preparedness is for those who can, community preparedness is for those who can't."

The thing that bothers me most about Y2K is that one person's inconvenience may be another person's life threatening situation. I may be able to hold out in a cold house for three days snuggling my family and wearing every piece of clothing I own, but three days in Ogden's typically below freezing January weather may be life-threatening for my elderly neighbors down the street.

Remember that we don't know what the power situation may be. We do know utilities, big business, and sectors such as the banking industry have spent billions of dollars and put a lot of effort into fixes. Still, we can't be totally sure. It's time to take measures now, especially for those who may be vulnerable to outages.

Host a neighborhood meeting in your home, church or gathering place. Help neighbors inventory the things that you might have that you can pool together as a neighborhood. Which homes have wood burning stoves? Who has a generator? Make contingency plans together that will benefit everybody. Figure out things like, how you will light your neighborhood at night? How will you deal with a person that needs medical attention if essential services aren't immediately available? What would happen if a home caught on fire? How would you deal with trash that piles up? Plan these things out now, together.

Once you have designed contingency plans, send as many members of the group as possible to fire safety training. Make sure as many as possible have basic first aid training and CPR. Call your city for information on CERT (Citizen's Emergency Response Team) training. Become proactively ready to take care of yourself while essential services are trying to reach you in case there is a problem.

Finding the benefits

Preparing together for any emergency is key to uncovering that wonderful synergy that happens when a group brainstorms together. Plus, you will know that if something does happen, you are not alone and there are specific things you can do to help people right away. Instead of a burden on the system, you are a valuable asset. We all benefit by everybody's increased self-sufficiency.

I gave written testimony at a hearings in Washington, D.C., before the Senate Subcommittee hearings on "Y2K and the Responsibility of the Media." It was there that Sen. Christopher Dodd said, "Community Preparedness, as the phrase suggests, gets to the heart of how the Y2K problem should be resolved. The problem is so pervasive, and has the potential to affect so many systems, at so many levels, that the only and best way to deal with it is to be prepared on an individual basis within our respective communities and neighborhoods."

That's advice that Utahns have been acting on for years. Y2K is just another opportunity to take a good look at things, restock, remember our systems, and make updated contingency plans. It's a good time to not get caught with your pantry down!

Jennifer Bunker, a professor at Weber State University in the Department of Information Systems and Technology, is the founder of the Northern Utah Y2K Community Preparedness Group.

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (critt@critt.com), September 06, 1999

Answers

I love it - by Jennifer "Get in yer" Bunker.

Any other good Y2K name suggestions?

-- Y2KGardener (gardens@bigisland.net), September 06, 1999.

Oh - and a good post too. Thanks.

-- Y2KGardener (gardens@bigisland.net), September 06, 1999.

great! do you have a link? thank you eddy

-- eddy (xxx@xxx.com), September 06, 1999.

Hey Critt, great catch--thanks. This is an ideal answer to those who ask, "Do you have anything I can hand out to convince someone that Y2K may be a problem?"

Glad you did OK re Dennis; we got around 7-8" rain but no serious problems.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 06, 1999.

Critt,

Do you have a link to the source of this article? From what I've been able to find it appears that Jennifer Bunker may be some kind of impostor since she is not listed as a professor at Weber:

http://catsis.weber.edu/ist/Faculty.htm

-- @ (@@@.@), September 07, 1999.

FWIW

Ehhh..pretty good site, full of Jen's de plume, but no mention of tenure at Weber. Everything at a glance was *old* by our standards here.

Maybe she has filled the vacancy listed on a's URL. Would definetly appear to fill the bill as *founder* though.

thread unspun to --

The NUY2KCPG is a member of the Utah Governor's Y2K Coalition and chairs the Governor's subcommittee "Education and Awareness". We have been invited to participate in Y2K Presidential appointee John Koskinen's "Community Conversations" program. Co-sponsor of the "Y2K: Possibilities in Community" conference with Weber State University.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), September 07, 1999.

Article is posted at: http://www1.standard.net/stories/y2k/08- 1999/FTP0173@y2k@31approach@Ogden.asp

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (critt@critt.com), September 07, 1999.

Critt,

Link much appreciated kind sir. The words are meaningful to me but for some reason other people don't seem to take it seriously unless there is a logo, etc. on the same page.

This page also includes a handy link at the bottom to automatically mail to someone.

Thanks!

-- @ (@@@.@), September 07, 1999.

I have been called a lot of things, but never Jennifer "get-in-yer" Bunker! Thanks for the great gut laugh! As for the professor question, leave it to the print media to screw up. I am an adjunct professor at Weber State University. Currently I am on leave while I allow Y2K to completely devour my life, $ and sanity. While I am clarifying, let me also say that I am not a member of the CSIS round table either, I particpating in it one time.

Jen B.

-- Jennifer Bunker (jen@bunkergroup.com), September 07, 1999.