Major stock market crashes to begin soon

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Finally, some truth is coming out.

http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9909/06/asia.y2k.reut/index.html

Major parts of the infrastructure in Asia are bound to fail because they haven't a clue about embedded chips.

snip:

"Except for Hong Kong and Singapore, and top-tier firms in South Korea and Taiwan, many companies elsewhere seemed unaware that embedded chips in their systems and manufacturing processes could derail operations in the new millennium, he said."

This announcement comes from a very credible and significant organization and is likely to shake up Wall Street starting tomorrow:

http://www.wdr.com/

-- @ (@@@.@), September 06, 1999

Answers

Will Wall Street investors allow probable Y2K disasters to interfere with their stock portfolio dreams?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 06, 1999.

This in turn will impact us here in the form of unavailable or very expensive spare parts. If electrical gizmos are fried most replacement electrronics these days are made in Asia.

World economy, like it or not.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), September 06, 1999.


Randolph,

I guess that would depend on the investor. The dreamers will of course be in denial, and they will get what they deserve for dreaming -a nightmare.

However I think some of the big power players are going to start hearing this news from major investment organizations and begin to get more conservative. China is a major trading partner with the U.S. and if they become crippled and stop importing this will send our current record trade deficit even higher. And of course there are all the products we import from them, which as Forest states will be difficult to get and certainly more expensive.

To top it off the State Department will announce on Sept. 15 all of the countries it feels may not be safe to be in during the rollover.

-- @ (@@@.@), September 06, 1999.


I don't often come across references to Warburg Dillon Read, but this is the second if a few days. The other was in a list of brokers/investment bankers, and the list included what seems to be each firms "target" for the DJIA at year end 1999. Most were over 11,000, a couple were between 10,000 and 11,000, and two were below 10,000. Of those, one was WDR at 9,000; the other was J.P.Morgan at 9,300. Hmmmmmm.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 06, 1999.


There was a thread days earlier which referenced some stock analysts who were warning of a stock market crash around 12SEP99.

IMO, there could be a huge plunge this month because more and more bad news reports are finally being released.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 06, 1999.



Randolph,

FWIW, my guess is that the market will tank, but I would caution anyone to be wary of forecasts of it crashing on or near any particular date.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 06, 1999.


Mere speculation here, but my best guess is that the market will fall the last week of September and first week of October. The big power players already know what the future will be and will make their moves at the right time. I believe there will be a 30% correction before the end of the year.

-- no kidding (no kidding@nokidding.com), September 06, 1999.

IMO, Wall Street will crash suddenly and unexpectedly.

I expect it this year but project no exact date.

I perceive the shock of the plunge will cause the panic because Wall Street will pull everything else down with it here and overseas.

I don't want this to happen, but I'm not the one who built the bubble.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 06, 1999.


The powers that be know that the market is a mania and severely over valued. They are just trying to suck in the lower class people to buy the junk at as high prices as they can get before it crashes. The exits will be crowded when the panic begins. Curly sold out months ago. He said "And people thought I was stupid."

-- Moe (Moe@3stooges.gom), September 06, 1999.

@@@@- Just curious here...

Are you the same "@@@@" who initiated a new thread the other day entitled:

"OT - MIR CRASHED OVER THE U.S. LAST NIGHT!!

-- CD (not@here.com), September 06, 1999.



CD,

Yes, I did post that thread. These people are discussing the stock market and if you want to discuss Mir, let's do it on that post. I still believe it was Mir, and if you have some proof that it wasn't please let me know on that thread.

-- @ (@@@.@), September 06, 1999.


('Scuse my interruption @@@@@. Thanks for the clarification. Just tryin' to keep track of who's interpreting what around here.)

-- CD (not@here.com), September 06, 1999.

To @@@@@@ I think what happened the other day was not the mir falling out of orbit, but a shootdown of an incoming icbm decoy from a hostile to probe our strategic defense shield. they will never tell, if people in oregon find any parts that didnt get burned up, dont report it. it wont be worth the trouble, just be thankfull it didnt have the real thing in it. Our military is doing a good job watching the skies.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), September 07, 1999.

Well, since this thread is toasted and we'll see what happens on the stock market in the morning, what the hell ...

Mike,

Yeah, I would also consider your theory a strong possibility. We have had hundreds of rocket boosters burn up before, but most go completely unnoticed. This object appeared much larger and more extraordinary than anything I've heard of in my days on this planet. That could be either because it was huge like Mir, or because it had never reached the higher levels of the atmosphere before coming down, which is supportive of your theory. In any event, I definitely don't believe the story about the Russian rocket booster.

-- @ (@@@.@), September 07, 1999.


@@@@@,

You stated that if China goes toast that we would see a record trade deficit. Correct me if I am wrong but if we do not receive goods from overseas then the deficit would go down. Right?

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), September 07, 1999.



Dave,

I'm not an economist so I shouldn't use that terminology. It is my understanding however that the trade deficit is calculated in $$$, not volume of goods. Shortage of supply = higher $$$$ ? Put on top of that the possibility that they wouldn't be buying as much from us and ???, whatever. In any event I don't think this news will sit well with investors in a global economy. But what do I know - it's just my opinion. IMHO

-- @ (@@@.@), September 07, 1999.


[ Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only ]

Y2K risks seen in parts of Asia

September 6, 1999 Web posted at: 3:01 PM EDT (1901 GMT)

HONG KONG (Reuters) --

Warburg Dillon Read warned investors on Monday that Indonesia, India, China and Thailand were ill-prepared for the millennium bug, and said Hong Kong and Singapore were most ready in the region.

"We caution investors on the risks inherent in the state of Y2K readiness in Indonesia, India, China and Thailand," said Sean Debow, head of regional valuation and accounting research.

In an interview with Reuters, Debow said he was most concerned about the poor state of readiness of power producers and transportation systems in less-developed markets and the potential fallout on the rest of the region.

Debow, whose assessments were based on an eight-week survey of some 230 companies in almost all Asian countries, said decision makers in some companies showed only superficial knowledge of Y2K risks connected to the turn of the century.

Many respondents in the survey seemed to think they had solved the problem merely by installing new Y2K compliant computers and software, Debow said.

Except for Hong Kong and Singapore, and top-tier firms in South Korea and Taiwan, many companies elsewhere seemed unaware that embedded chips in their systems and manufacturing processes could derail operations in the new millennium, he said.

"Our general feeling in Asia is that we are more concerned about embedded chips than we are about anything else. There's not enough focus on that," he said.

Non-compliant embedded chips, if left unrectified, may cause major problems in basic infrastructure such as power and water supplies and transportation, which would then have a domino impact on other vital services and manufacturing processes.

"China has been complacent and the power sector is a long way behind global standards in its preparation for Y2K," Debow said.

"The country may well suffer a partial breakdown of its electricity provision system, with loss of generation and blackouts likely," he said.

On India, Debow said its key sectors such as power, ports and railway have stated they were unlikely to be Y2K compliant until near the end of the year. "This is a risky prospect," he said.

On sectors, Debow said property was safest but the power sector was fraught with risks in the less-prepared countries.

In the airline industry, Debow said flag carriers such as Singapore Airlines Ltd, Thai Airways International, Taiwan's China Airlines, Cathay Pacific "should be ready to put aircraft in the air on January 1, 2000."

One exception was China's China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd. "According to the airline's publications to date, its initial testing shows that flight information, ground communication, ticketing system and certain electronic devices are not yet Y2K compliant," he said.

-- mabel (mabel_louise@yahoo.com), September 07, 1999.


So, has there been any market response yet? Have some URL's so I can see for myself?

-- T the C (tricia_canuck@hotmail.com), September 07, 1999.

Tricia,

There are indications of end of year worries in some bond markets and perhaps a few commodity markets, but I do not yet see *clear* signs of end of year worries in equity markets.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 07, 1999.


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