It seems to me that there are a fair amount of goldbugs who contribute to this site and wanted their opinions....It seems the gold bugs continue to spread the word about how the stock market is so flimsy and even compare it to 1929 to prove their point that gold is a good investment, Yet, for several years after (correct me if I'm wrong) 1929 due to deflationary circumstances I believe gold went down in value or at the very least stayed even in value. I think it was in 1933 when the government confiscated personal holdings of gold THEN they raised the price of gold. If this is at least close to being true, then why do you continue to promote gold? Yes, I know gold is called the ultimate in money, yet, if we have another deflationary crash like in 1929, if past experience is any indication, why wouldn't cash be king like it was in 1929?

-- Richard (trubeliever@webtv.net), September 05, 1999

Answers

Perhaps the new book by Dr. Ravi Batra "Crash of the Millennium" will answer that. He is saying that we are going to have the FIRST ever INFLATIONARY depression. Yes, that's INFLATIONARY and DEPRESSION. if you can believe his press, he has ben correct on 31 out of 33 predictions over the past dozen years or so. The other 2 have not come true YET--they have been postponed by buying time with masive debt creation, which is central to his book's content. I read a review of it on the Ed Yourdon forum on SAT SEP. 4. If you scan the headlines for that date, you will see it there with the book title mentioned.

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.com), September 05, 1999.

WHY WHY WHY!!?? Why would anybody sell me their gold for my fiat money!!!!?????

WHY WHY WHY????? Perhaps to drive up the price of gold so they can get out of a loser investment????

-- doubter (nogold@myhouse.com), September 05, 1999.

I think that stocks, like fiat money, like gold, is only as valuable as others are willing to accept it as an asset exchange. Talking heads understand that as long as we all ignore fundamentals, positive momentum will carry us upward. After all, what is a dollar really worth? Your confidence.

So, can it be stated then that along with an asset bubble and debt bubble, we really have a currency bubble? If the dollar is overvalued, inflation is already in our midst like a virus waiting too spring to life. Am I wrong?

Inflationary = Things cost more. Our dollar is probably overvalued. Thus we already have the seeds of inflation sown in our economy.

In 29' we were a creditor nation. Our currency was worth more. In 99' we are the world's largest debtor nation. Our currency should be worth less due to trade deficits, negative savings rate etc.

Depression = I have heard a greater than -5% growth in GNP over 3 quarters or something like that. (Please someone post the absolute facts on what constitutes a "depression")

WW 2 Germany had a Hyper inflationary depression. We 2 could experiance the same should our currency tank + experience a severe economic downturn.

Therefore,,,,, If our money is worth less abroad, and gold is internationally accepted, seems like gold (precious metals) would be acceptable as a future investment.

-- wayne witcher (wwitcher@mvtel.net), September 05, 1999.

WTSHTF and the world economies tank, I anticipate extreme turmoil over currency rates.

Gold, silver and other precious commodities will fluctuate with paper money, most of which will become worthless.

Eventually the Global Depression will be so severe that the only rational solution will be for everyone to take a *mark*.

This *mark* will allow the user to purchase and sell, and a complete credit history will be maintained.

This *mark* will be perceived as the perfect solution to normalize the world's economy. And it WILL work.

But there will be an eternal price to pay for accepting it.

Any takers?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 05, 1999.

Randolf:::

I just watched a tape about Iridium. "Iridium satellites, Nowhere to Hide"

I don't consider myself a doomer or polly. Just someone who loves to read. Yet, this tape, which I reluctantly watched at the request of a friend really has me wondering. If only part of the documentary is correct, something big is up.

Don't really want to go into details but some think that there is a major move underway to globally connect all peoples through this system. Some think that this system and a few other satellite grids currently being deployed are to introduce and facilitate the "mark".

What have you heard?ww

-- wayne witcher (wwitcher@mvtel.net), September 05, 1999.

Of COURSE the value of gold goes down.

1. it doesn't earn interest. 2. investors dont want to own it. 3. it's being manipulated too. (what else isn't?)

The choice isn't between a 100% stock portfolio and a 100% metal portfolio.

It is between a portfolio that has SOME metal as opposed to NONE. Just like the question isn't how many guns do you own but do you own ANY at all.

Those that have NONE have a pure paper position with nothing but promises and good faith backing them up.

That's what we mean by "sticking to your guns". Everything else is based on 100% pure faith and promise. Only on the day when the promise is found to be defaulted on will gold truly shine. Until that time the promises will be as good as gold (and maybe better in the short term). In the long run, the government cant guarantee the value of your dollars or your gold, but:

It's easier for uncle sam to write a check for a trillion dollars than to dig up a billion ounces (which they dont have) One requires ink and paper, the other requires sweat and blood.

-- hunchback (Q@b.com), September 05, 1999.

Go down to the local coin store and buy yourself one Gold American Eagle. Bring it home and set it on your table. Beside it place $269.90. Ask yourself these questions....

1) Which one of these was around and had value 30 years ago? Answer: Gold since the begginning of time!

2) Which one of these will most likely be around 30 years from now? Answer: Gold until the end of time.

3) Which one will have the most value in a inflationary depression? Answer: Gold as much as 100:1 and maybe more.

4) Which one can be destroyed by your goverment? Answer: fiat paper

5) Which one of these are being aquired by the wealthist .01% of the population at this time and why? Answer: Gold because the smart money knows the fiat system is in ruins worldwide.

6) Now, Whice one of the two has the most true value?

-- no spam (nospam @ spam.spam), September 05, 1999.

Very good point about Germany post-WWI. I knew all about it, yet forgot to make the connection! It was a time when wives were demanding to be paid their husband's salary BY THE HOUR, since inflation was literally screaming up so fast that the price of something in paper money cost far more at day's end than at the start! Someone on one of these posts in the past 24 hours was decrying the non-availability of gold coins. I have seen no evidence of this. You can go to www.kitco.com and order any/all manner of gold/silver/platinum/rhodium bars/coins/ounces ONLINE! BTW, here's something to scare you. Talk about media spin, it has been going on for decades. At www.elliottwave.com, they have an excellent archived selection of "wall street Uncut" REALPLAYER files from various well-known market technicians/newsletter writers. If you listen to the one with IAN MCAVITY (who writes" deliberations"), he says that he is black-listed from PBS, or at least from WALL STREET WEEK, because he made a comment years ago on the show stating that THE US GOVMINT WOULD NEVER HONOR ITS 30-YEAR BONDS. by inference, this surely must include all its debt instruments. hOW'S THAT FOR SPIN!

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.com), September 05, 1999.

Wayne:

Being basically ignorant, I read some books and hear some words.

The conclusions I form are based upon my imperfect understanding.

I value freedom and perceive it will be lost when the *mark* is made mandatory.

But before this *mark* will be initialized, there must be TOTAL ECONOMIC CHAOS in order to beat down the populace into submission.

In particular, America, a proud and arrogant nation, must be crushed in order for this new plan to take effect.

For years I wondered what could cause such a catastrophe.

Then I learned about Y2K, solar blasts, asteroid collisions and other looming disasters.

When physical existence becomes so harsh that food and water are extremely scarce, then people will DEMAND a solution.

And it will be provided, but they MUST SUBMIT UNCONDITIONALLY.

Implementation of the new world marking identification system will employ millions.

Those under the controlling Authority, a not-yet-declared world dictator, will gladly comply with their mission.

They will be the new world missionaries, instructing all children in what to do and how to obey.

Nonconformists will be exterminated.

Under their reasoning, it's best that the earth be cleansed of rebellious humans in order for the majority to evolve into a new paradigm of superior existence.

Expect more Mother Gaia indoctrination.

The world's economy will boom with amazing prosperity.

The Internet and computers will be resurrected into an extremely powerful and dominant force.

The entire electronic infrastructure will experience a fantastic New Renaissance.

People will have hope that they and their families can survive.

The media will eagerly spread the new propaganda.

Brainwashing will become PERFECTED.

But natural catastrophes will increase exponentially, and many heinous woes will strike mankind.

These events are prophesied in the book of Revelation.

Many posters will think I'm totally crazy.

Others recognize I'm on target.

I KNOW that the greatest, ungodliest evil is yet to come, and I will fight to the end.

Be prepared for massive changes, for they WILL come soon.

Selah.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 05, 1999.

profit_of_doom:

Your post reminded me of a taped Church meeting in Beaverdam, Wisconsin, in which an old German named Dieter (no, not THAT dIEteR) explained how conditions were after WWII, when there was great scarcity of essential amenities.

Dieter recounted that those with luxuries such as gold watches and clocks would place their possessions in store windows with little cards expressing the desired foods and other items needed and willing to be bartered for their possessions.

It sounded pathetic. Here were these "wealthy" citizens who were so destitute of the essentials that they were willing to part with items which formerly had extremely HIGH value.

What do you think of that?

Can you imagine seeing computers and jewelry being showcased at your local Dollar General store?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 05, 1999.

Randolph .... You have the RIGHT message ! This is the side of reasoning this society of comsumers/collectors/posters can't even fathom, let alone come to grips with in connection with Y2K. Hard enough for the GIs to think about 6 months - years preps. But to hold out for three and a half years without consumption of all the goodies they are used to is TOO overwelming !!! I'm sure my wife will " turn me in " to the score keepers as a holdout, for any silly pleasue she has been deprived of from Y2K. This is the reason why the NWO will succed, more than any other. People have had it too easy for too long and they will NOT be able to take " withdrawal " ; it will be an all consuming passion to return to " near normal " times of plenty. Without seeds, land to till, tools to work same, some medium of exchange for black market necessities, and the strength to resist family/neighbors who did NOT prepare and MUST submit or starve, 95% will give up what freedom remains. I intend to fight, if it comes to that. " If God is with you, who can stand against you ?" I pray I am worthy of His attention; as a martyr,I will teach little to his grandchildren . A. Believer

-- A Believer (eagleeyes@aol.com), September 05, 1999.

1. What'a all this about "Iridium" satellites???

2. Gold. Silver.

Take my advice - get some.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 05, 1999.

Doubter, The man who deals in beans and rice has a very valuable commodity so why would he part with any of it for fiat money? Because he has phone bills, electric bills etc. which can only be paid in fiat money. Maybe he also wants to buy a little gold as a hedge against y2k. The man who deals in gold has a very valuable commodity so why would he part with any of it for fiat money? Because he has phone bills, electric bills etc. which can only be paid fiat money. Maybe he also wants to buy a little beans and rice as a hedge against y2k. Elementary economics 101

-- Lumber Jack (johnsellis@webtv.net), September 05, 1999.

Andy, gold and silver would be nice to possess, but right now I'm wondering how I can finance solar panels and Trojan batteries without obtaining a credit card.

Because I HATE credit and have no desire to be in debt, I doubt I shall ever touch a Kruggerand or Gold Eagle coin.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 05, 1999.

Randolph::::

Your speculation that the USA must diminish as a world power is held by many. I have heard that Frontline, a PBS documentary series, has done a program which virtually provess that the old USSR has "lost" a few hundred suitcase nukes.

I watched a C-span special last year. Some high muckity muck from the Russian military was testifying that, though the existance of these suitcase nukes were not officially confirmed, they could not account for all of them. He was trying to drum up monies for computer upgrades to better track their arsenial. Seems he was acknowledging that Russia could not account for all of them.

This leads me to my point. Some think that certain rascals posess these "lost" weapons. A detonation of one of these units in a large USA city would certainly shake up our country.

Some think that a nuck attack like this by terrorist would motivate our population to submit to all kinds of anti-terrorist measures like, the insertion of micro chip techknowledgy to track the population and to install an new global currency so on and so on.

Andy, I am currently researching the recent information I have received on Iridium. When I can speak reasonably well on the issues I will post. ww

-- (wwitcher@MVTEL.net), September 05, 1999.

wwitcher:

I don't think a small nuclear attack will be sufficient to cause Americans to submit to the *mark*.

Whatever event mandates such an imprint will be truly *global*, and the entire world will panic with full alarm.

The great crisis which brings about this paradigm is presently beyond our common comprehension.

However, the judgments to hit America are INEVITABLE!

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 05, 1999.

Okay, admittedly I never finished ECON 101 because the instructor was duller than dirt, but I'M wondering, in order to have an inflationary depression, wouldn't the government need to keep printing currency and printing it and printing it for the upward spiral to continue? How will they do this if a) essential services are cut off, b) vendors are unreliable, c) distribution and circulation are short-circuited by a lack of energy products to keep it moving? I supposedly have a high I.Q. (referring to another current thread on this board), but am probably just an idiot savant with a talent for Photoshop, so pardon me if this is really stupid post.

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 06, 1999.

CD::::

My understanding is that money is really only worth what someone else is willing to accept it as exchange for goods and services. You cant eat it for example.

Some think that our currency is overvalued now. If investors dumped dollars tomorrow and the $ value is diminished significantly, inflation would spring to life overnight. Oil would cost more to import if the dollar value diminished against the importers currency of choices exchange rate. The same holds true for cars for example. Japans Yen is up from 140something to the dollar to 109.something today. See, inflated prices exist if the exchange rates alter radically up.

The same holds true for deflation. If the dollar strenthens against the yen we get imports from that country at a great discount. This is how the USA has been able to continue bad monetary policies and continue unscathed. Even if wage pressures and bloated equities increase prices of domestic goodies, price pressures from abroad will supress greedy increases in domestic markets.

In Post ww1 germany, the Mark was a bad investment. Its value continued to decline. It wasn,t so much that they printed the mark in mass, its the fact that the mark had a declining ability to purchase goods abroad. The exchange rate was bad and worstened.

This is what I mean when I state that the dollar is only as valuable as others percieve it to be. So, if the dollar falls, and many think that it will, inflation is manifested. Demand falls, persons lose jobs, demand falls, persons lose jobs. The dollar is percieved as a bad investment and is dumped. Inflation goes up, demand continues to fall... Wallah, Hyper inflation+recession/depression.

Its really not that simple but I hate to type. For really good insight, go to my favorite sights. Prudentbear.com..forum...gold-eagle.com..Tulipsandbears.com so on and so on. ww

-- wayne witcher (wwitcher@mvtel.com), September 06, 1999.

One more thing.

To quote DUNE, "He who controls the spice controls the Universe".

USA colonialism is alive and well today. We and some European countries managed to destroy some economies last year due to our greed and market/currency manipulations.

While we may not physically control nations, he who controls the money controls the world. Dont ever forget that.

I was once a Ditto head but now im found ;-) Once a product of the greed generation of the 80's till I understood how we were affecting peoples around the world.

Now, im not against profit. But if you dont think that markets are manipulated for the mega rich, you really need to wake up and smell the coffee. Remember the recent hedge fund bail outs our government sponsered??? ww

-- wayne (wwitcher@mvtel.net), September 06, 1999.

Thank you, Wayne! An excellent explanation. When can I sign up for your ECON 101 course?

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), September 06, 1999.