RESULTS OF THE QUICK POLL AND NOT-SO-QUICK POLL

Here are the

Results of the Y2K Effect on the Stock Market poll

and the

Results of the Y2K Severity survey

Over 200 people participated in each poll. Note that despite the fancy HTML provided by freepolls.com, this was a very unscientific survey of a bunch of predominantly pessimistic people. Some commented that it was to biased toward the negative, others said it was not extreme enough.

However, if the collective opinion of TB2000 readers somehow turns out to be right, in the next couple of years we may see

• a Dow Jones average of between 3000 and 6000
• a national state of emergency of longer than 90 days
• more than 100 million people killed worldwide
• US power outages of up to several weeks in some areas
• some serious wars and disasters
• a mass panic around Dec 1999
• a regression to 1950-level technological efficiency
• gold prices at $1000 an ounce
• essentially no commercial gasoline availability

Now more than ever, I hope and pray that we are wrong.

-- a (a@a.a), September 02, 1999

Answers

I *knew* that you folks were a bunch of optimists. [G]

Seriously, a, let us hope indeed that the "dark dreams" of our group do not become reality.

I've rarely been so sure about something, and can't EVER remember hoping so hard that I am wrong.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), September 02, 1999.

"a"'s previous poll asking for people to numerically quatify how bad they thought things would be -- BITR, recession, depression, govt collapse, social meltdown -- also showed "optimism", all things considered. Being a doomer, if you think about it, probably means being able to look at something like the "social meltdown" category and then assigning to it a relatively small -- but numerically significant -- probability.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 02, 1999.

1950's technology? Good! That means TV, radio, an all-electric kitchen, and grocery stores!

I have severely over-prepared.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), September 02, 1999.

1950's technology with a bomb shelter?

Where's my shovel?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 02, 1999.

OK but there's a logical flaw here. "..essentially no commercial gasoline availability" does NOT mean going back to the 1950's. There was lots of cheap gasoline available then.

"essentially no commercial gasoline availability" is extremely dire. 280 million people are NOT prepared to live like the Amish in five months. Is anyone awake out there...?

-- there's no logic (in@our.reasoning), September 03, 1999.