What do you think is a good estimate of the productivity loss due to programmers participating (and lurking) in forums like this (doomer and polly alike) and/or making preps? How badly will this impact the y2k deadlines currently in place?

-- a (a@a.a), September 02, 1999

Answers

Check out a research published in this book: "Software Project Dynamics : An Integrated Approach" by Tarek Abdel-Hemid, Stuart E. Madnick. To make it short and sweet - the researchers found that an average time per day spent by a programmer working on a project (any project that is) is 3.6 hours. If we will not waste time here we will find something else to do.

-- Boris Ushumirskiy (MSIS@cyberdude.com), September 02, 1999.

Oh, I see - imdirectly criticize all posters, readers, and users in the forum by implying "you" - whoever you are - are better because "we" - who are trying to train, encourage, and teach others how to prepare for uncertainity nextyear, while "you" are completely trusting the federal government to feed, clothe, shelter, and provide you light, heat, and water next year????

Hmmmmn - I suspect you have too much time on your hand. Why don't you try to get the IRS or your local water system compliant...seems less than 16% even bothered answering the EPA's latest poll.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 02, 1999.

Boris,

"If we will not waste time here we will find something else to do." ... or, perhaps more accurately, some other way to waste your time. The 3.6 hours/day figure, if I remember Tarek's book correctly, is the amount of time doing "legitimate" technical work on a project, such as coding, designing, testing, etc. The other 4.4 hours per day are spent going to meetings, filling out time sheets, kibitzing with others around the water cooler, as well as attending training classes, being sick, etc, etc.

Aside from that, I agree with your basic point...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), September 02, 1999.

a, Ohhhhhh, I'm not so sure I really want an answer to your question. I want to hold onto my fantasy that programmers are working 24/7 on the problem and that their posts here originate from computers that multi-task at lightening speeds. That they are somehow superhuman entities that need neither sleep nor recreation. That the result of this Promethean diligence will be a cheerful announcement by the end of October, from even the doomiest programmers, that it's all fixed. It may not be rational, but at least it's keeping the insomnia demon away.

In all seriousness though, I do wonder about not only programmers, but also people who still have preps to do. I've had to drag myself away from this computer, sometimes kicking and screaming, to get to the readiness business.

BTW, are you going to post results from your surveys, at some point?

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), September 02, 1999.

This is one of the forums I use to track Y2K news. Since everything get's posted here, it saves me time looking for all that news myself. I pass some of the information along to the contigency planning group. (Seperate from me, and exploring questions like "Do we get radios to replace phone communications? How long do our generators run?" For a multi-national they get pretty Blue Sky in the contigency dept).

I'm also exploring using this forum as a back up system. If there is an oil shortage we could use TB2000 as an alternate source of heat (although the flames here never seem to produce much light).

Keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), September 02, 1999.

Boris, thank you.

a, the time programmers spend here is not wasted, and therefore this forum does not result in a loss of programmer productivity. We come here for reality checks, after getting out of Twilight Zone meetings. We provide reality checks for "civilians", who may have no other chance to talk to the people on the front lines. And the preps we make give more productivity, not less, because we spend less time fretting about helplessness, and instead have taken responsibility for our own and our families' preparedness.

Sorry that it seems like a waste to you.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), September 02, 1999.

Oops, I mean Bokonon, thank you.

See, even us brilliant geeks occasionally make a mistake. My wife keeps hoping that stuff like that will keep me humble, but I told her no chance.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), September 02, 1999.

Once upon a time, there were two woodcutters. They began their day side by side at the woodlot and began to develop a subtle competitiveness.

Midway through the morning, the two woodcutters took a break. The first woodcutter noticed that he was falling behind and cut short his break to resume cutting. Every time he looked up, it seemed the second woodcutter was ahead. Although the second woodcutter continued to take many short breaks throughout the day, the first worked straight through trying to catch up.

At the end of the day, the woodpile of the second woodcutter was noticeably larger. Frustrated and a bit miffed, the first wookcutter admitted defeat. Then he shook his head and said; "You must be a far better woodcutter than I. I worked straight through trying to catch up and never could, even though you always seemed to be sitting on some stump taking a break. I don't understand. Are you that good or am I that bad? What?"

The second woodcutter replied with a grin; "Well, ya know all those times I was a sittin' takin' those breaks? Well, I was also a sharpenin' my axe."

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), September 02, 1999.

Here is a forum that irrefutibly has some extremely intelligent,mature,decent people. The majority of them with ONE focus in mind.

(((((potentialy surviving the unraveling of our digital infrastructure))))

We all have advanced warning. If we chose to monitor---via this forum, the global happenings (basically realtime) because we feel a potential matter of life and death is worthy of such monitoring by like minded people,---then in my estimation, NO amount of time is too much.

Tell Paul revere he can go home now, they aren't coming!!

"The price of freedom is vigilance"

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), September 02, 1999.

Robert,

Take a pill man!

"a" and others on this forum have done somthing to help and continue to do so. From personal experience I can say that "a" helped (talked) me over a very large and foreboding wall. That's what he "CAN" do. If he had the power to fix the IRS's systems he probably would. The fact is he can't so he does what he can do and that is to help others with info.

Get a grip.

-- DOC (Hoping_for@the.best), September 02, 1999.

Ed:

What you say may be true of programmers, but not me. I don't belong to the anti-government group here. But I've spent the last three days [with a temp of 103] figuring how to make us compliant with new government regulations. Not 3.whatever hr per day of productive work. None. I'll spend the next 4 days on the same subject. Meetings and everything else. In the end, nothing will change but our annual report will look better. I guess this is necessary but it isn't in my job description. I do this because the youngsters don't have the breadth of experience to handle it. I became elgible for early retirement in July. It is looking better....

Best wish

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), September 02, 1999.

DOC: Unless I'm mistaken, Sir Robert was talking to Boris the "MS IS" fellow. But maybe my question was misunderstood by bw, who seems to think I consider time spent here "a waste".

The question still stands, is largely unanswered, and is legit: what will be the impact on software schedules when programmers become (or now that they are)preoccupied with the personal rather than the corporate matters surrounding y2k?

-- a (a@a.a), September 02, 1999.

a:

Depends on the human factor and the geek factor. I know a lot of them but not enough to make a decision about the whole world.

Best wishes,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), September 02, 1999.

a:

I kind of thought the same thing just after I posted. If it's true, sorry Robert. I'm just getting a little tense from seeing good questions posted and people flaming them because they can't come up with an intelligent answer.

Now to give you my answer to your question. I don't believe it has much of an impact on productivity. I work in a small to mid size CAD/CAM software development shop (20+ programers)that is part of a much larger world wide fortune 1000 Co. As a rule, none work for more than 2 hours at a wack before taking some sort of a break (20-40 minutes). The reason is, they would all go insane if they coded non-stop for the whole day. Some play pinball, some go out and smoke, some play ping-pong, and maybe some post here :) Bottom line, regardless of your form of stress relief, you do your thing, and get back to work until your eyes cross and then take a break. TPTB are ok with it because most came from the same trench. We seem to get most of our stuff done close to deadline, so everyone's happy.

That's MHO.

-- DOC (Hoping_for@the.best), September 02, 1999.

Here's something in a similar vein I just came across. Note the "I'm shutting off the beeper, disconnecting the phone, and taking two weeks vacation" comment:

Subject:	-bks-ie, where are youuuuu? Was: YR2K Coverage
Date:	1999/09/02
Author:	cory hamasaki <kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net>
	Posting History

Hey -bks-, the mainframers have caught up to us at about a year ago.   On Wed, 1 Sep 1999 15:09:59, Tony.Babonas@FGCORP.COM (Babonas, Tony S.) wrote:   > My prior company has planned all the aforementioned coverage.  All tech type > disciplines would work staggered shifts, etc etc. > > People then started to react, based on varying levels of "concern" > (paranoia?).  Here's a sampler of excuses to not work New Year's Eve. > > 1. What if my furnace quits?  My newborn and non-car-driving wife would be > in dire straits. > > 2. What if the power fails, the company is on generator, my house is not. > > 3. Can't make it to the office, my new all-digital home security alarm > system has disabled the garage door opener, can't escape the house. > > 4. Management is asking me to choose between my family's safety and security > versus a computer system that MAY experience various failures and > inaccuracies.  Call me on Jan 3. > > Personally, I don't subscribe to the nuclear holocaust level of concern, but > I have a 1983 auto ready to roll with no microprocessors under the hood. > > > > # -----Original Message----- > # From: Selles, Garry J [mailto:garry.j.selles@LMCO.COM] > # Sent: Wednesday, September 01, 1999 7:57 AM > # To: IBM-MAIN@BAMA.UA.EDU > # Subject: Re: YR2K Coverage > # > # > # I am saving all of my vacation so that I can take off the > # last week of this > # year and the first month or 2 of the new year.  I am shutting > # off my phone > # and pager and not answering the doorbell. > # > # -----Original Message----- > # From: Peter J. Oelkers [mailto:PJOelkers@WORLDNET.ATT.NET] > # Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 1999 8:36 PM > # To: IBM-MAIN@BAMA.UA.EDU > # Subject: YR2K Coverage > # > # > # How are the majority of installation handling coverage for > # the Roll-Over to > # 2000?  Are all Systems/Security Type personnel required to be > # onsite?  If > # so, what are the hours personnel are to be onsite?  Only > # selective personnel > # and which staff members will be onsite?  Or are you just > # treating this as > # another ordinary day. > # > # Any insight on how other shops are handling this would be greatly > # appreciated. > #   A-mazing.  And you clueless c.s.y2k pollies (I don't mean you -bks-, or brock either)  but the some of the others who sniped at the sensible warnings from the realists.  Go over to the mainframe newsgroup and straighen out them out.  Show a whole newsgroup what big brains you c.s.y2k pollies are.   Actually I encourage pollies everywhere, the infestation in TB2K, everywhere, go over to the mainframe group and s-s-s-shake some polly sense into them.   cory hamasaki http://www.kiyoinc.com/curr ent.html the DC Y2K Weather Reports are still shareware, read it for free on the web.  Laugh as the civilized world collapses.  You've heard the warning, now finish the preps.   Has anyone seen my ".308 is better than .223 post?"  I think IBM lost it.  Dang. 

-- a (a@a.a), September 02, 1999.

a:

Has anyone seen my ".308 is better than .223 post?" I think IBM lost it. Dang.

I think that cory is wrong about both sizes. But then he just talks about them.

Best,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), September 02, 1999.

I would postulate that it could improve productivity in the long run. When the panic hits, we, who have prepared, will not be standing in lines, wondering where our next pound of beans will come from. We can go to work secure in the knowledge that our families are taken care of.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 02, 1999.

Hmmmmmmm....I think my previous post was taken as a flame towards a, for asking the question. Wasn't intended that way. It was intended as a general comment on all of us holding on to the the thin shred of a hope that some "silver bullet" will be found in time. The question is legit, and I don't read it as a suggestion from a, that programmers should be driven until they collapse from exhastion.

However I may pray for a silver bullet, I do realize that programmers are human and need to engage in the same functions as everyone else, all a person can do, is all a person can do.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), September 02, 1999.

Not only this forum, but I wonder what impact that "always on" fast T-1 connection, running in a "background" window, on just about every programmer's desk (at least at my office), is having on productivity?

But me? I take a look when I fire off a compile or batch run that will take a while. But hey, part of my job is to research Y2K, and it's impact on my company. If you find a better site to do that, let me know!

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 02, 1999.

My productivity would improve if all these users would stop calling me with stupid questions.

-- Tim the Y2K nut (tmiley@yakko.cs.wmich.edu), September 03, 1999.

Gotta love ...lots of folks using that trick these days ;-)

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), September 03, 1999.

Apparently, stuff in tags gets hidding here. Let's try that again:

Gotta love ALT + TAB...

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), September 03, 1999.

Marsh, Abraham Lincoln liked that story, too. The version I remember reading that he is reputed to have told goes along these lines: "If I had an hour to chop down a tree, I would spend 45 minutes sharpening my axe."

My website: www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), September 04, 1999.