About.com stock page lists links to Moore and futurefax.com with some very detailed and interestingly real correlations between the stock market now and in 1987 before the crash. They are predicting a crash around 9/12/99. WOW!!! How did you miss this one Andy???

http://stocks.about.com/library/weekly/aa082799.htm

-- Liz (Liz.Conti@pharma.com), September 01, 1999

Answers

Great info, Liz. Thanks.

-- Claire (watchingthedow@aol.com), September 01, 1999.

Hey I didn't miss it Liz, my agents are everywhere, thank you 009 :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 01, 1999.

A crash in September would catch most off guard, and being unexpected, would cause the panic.

Then watch JIT distribution choke big time with severe shortages.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 01, 1999.

Very interesting information Liz. However, to all... I still have some doubts on the timing. I suspect (after looking at the latest charts) that we're still 4 to 6 weeks away from a significant break down. Of course its been 10 years since I really played the markets. But I was a technicals trader in commodities and I tended to use some sophisticated versions of stochastics, like the Directional Movement Index. Anyone out there familiar with it? Is anyone using it these days. It was not that well known in the late 1980s because it was very complicated to follow, but it really seemed to be on target for longer term trades if you could get the parameters set correctly. It had some really good smoothing action to help limit false signals once you correctly set the parameters. Just curious if anyone is even aware of that system or using it these days.

Anyway folks, It looks to me like the underlying support lines show timing right now giving strong support at 8500 and the 50 day moving average is definitely choppy but the time supports seem to indicate to me that we're still a few weeks away from a convergence crisis for directional indication.

Another thing. These folks are basing this on the S & P and NASDAQ... but I think the market for the DOW is the real key. The S & P's and NASDAQ may well start tanking by mid Sept and the DOW may disregard it for a few weeks. Let's face it though. The major media only pays attention to the DJI so therefore the public at large won't recognize problems til it hits the DJI. So, as Howard Cosell used to say... "There's still time." Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), September 02, 1999.

from another forum...

I have been examining the charts on the US$ vs Other currencies and the result looks like the US$ will finally die very soon...One of the key charts is the Japanese Yen...If you look at a 3 year ( closing price ) chart, you will see the makings of a huge head and shoulders bottom that the Yen is making in here....And the Yen is at the breakout point now...The projected result will put the Yen at about 60 to the dollar!! Other currencies look to be in the bottoming camp against the dollar as well...I suspect the when we get the next trade deficit report, the dollar will be in a freefall. The reprecussions of this will be the dismantling of the hedge funds that have been short the Yen...combine this with a falling stock market and come the end of September you could see a real mess in the financial markets...This Could, and I say Could, lead to a BIG Crash in the markets without hope that the PPT will be able to pick up the pieces...you see, this WILL be the domino effect that sets the ball rolling...all of these forces coming together at the same time will be too much for Bill Clinton and his lying theiving cadral to bolster up...Think about it for a while...A rapidly falling dollar...A rapidly falling stock market because of a rapidly falling dollar...A rapidly falling banking system because of rapidly RISING interest rates...A banking crisis just beginning because of Y2K withdrawls AND As a result of all of this, Hedge funds that are in serious troubles and about to bring down the banking system!

Now, I can hear all the ney sayers out there, "this could never happen"...but I say to you in all sincerity...once this starts...it will seem like the whole world is caving in on the US financials...as I see it, we are out of control as we speak and Alan Greenspan knows this!

We are finally coming to the end of our out of controlled spending ( debt ) on all levels, First-Gov't, Second-Corporations, Third-US Citizens...with the rest of the world now growing out of recession all the recovering countries will be drawing all of their currencies back to them as money comes flowing into THIER stock markets....This is the end of the bubble market!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 02, 1999.

To the question about the DMI. There are many other (and I believe more responsive)"momemtum" indicators that offer signs that this whole market is VERY weak. Divergence is what you're looking for in those. All of mine show a great deal of divergence. Looking at the world credit picture is frightening, and it seems the "big" players know if liquidity dries up, the bubble bursts.

When markets go down, they go down MUCH faster than they rise - why not get out here or go short now? It is very hard to get the last nickle of a move or pick the exact top and "execute" the trade.

The downside potential is huge so I say go now -while you can still execute a trade. By the time the DMI say to "go short", the Dow will be WAY below where it is today.

My first post and this really is a great Forum - wish I had more answers for me and everybody else.

Gregg

-- Gregg Abbott (g.abbott@starting-point.com), September 02, 1999.