There are reasons that explain the non-event of the much-ballyhooed GPS rollover. They are the same reasons for the coming non-events of 000101. The computer industry differs from other industries in several important ways. This accounts for some of the misunderstanding regarding the nature and scope of the Y2K issue.

1. We are accustomed to giving the most credence to experts in a field. This applies to the computer industry, but with a rather large asterice. It should be (foot-) noted that someone with thirty years experience in the computer industry may not know as much about emerging technology as someone with less than one year experience. In short, in this industry, things change fast. That works against the "experts."

2. With specific regard to the Y2K issue, some "under-estimations" have admittedly occurred. One of the most potent of these deals with scope - another deals with inter-dependability and inter-operability of systems. Ten years hence, this argument will appear moot, as the systems of that day will be closer to the ideals some hold about systems today. The reality of the situation is thus: the systems today are not as connected and we do not depend upon them as much as we will some day. And, we as a civilisation are not helpless without them. Nor do I believe we will ever be.

3. The extrapolations and sheer folly that has been foisted upon a less-than-knowledgable populace by so-called "experts" to sell materiel and books is fueling the debate to a frenzy. As yet another "disaster date" passes in relative tranquility, observe the fervor of the Y2K zealots as they, in survival mode now (as their dark ideals falter in the light of evidence), attempt to justify their beliefs of "world-wide conspiracies" and other such mental excretion. In their delusion, they accept a lack of evidence as conclusive. Observe.

As always, my heart is for those who may read the words of the deluded and take some of the steps recommended. I offer that everyone should attempt to improve their condition, but that no one anywhere should inconvenience themselves in fear of the predictions of the clearly and (in nobler cases) admittedly mistaken.

Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), August 22, 1999

Answers

Polly Alert! Polly Alert!

-- Just (another@polly.spotter), August 22, 1999.

Andy Ray,

I wish you would stop using my and Ray's name for your drivel.

Now go away.

-- andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 22, 1999.

everyone wants to reduce anxiety

some try to reduce anxiety by preparing for potential problems: (most forum regulars)

some try to reduce anxiety by denying there are problems serious enough to warrant preparation: (pollies)

some try to do a little of both: (perhaps Flint fits in here)

got anxiety?

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), August 22, 1999.

Andy Ray, thanks for your BRIEF vacation.

Now I'm gonna put things into PERSPECTIVE for you!!

Tell me the estimated government and corporate budgets for remediating y2k as verses the GPS rollover.

Got the BIG PICTURE now!!

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 22, 1999.

") 1999 United States Senate. All rights reserved"???

Since when can the government copyright something? Last I heard, everything they do *we* own. Hell, even the CIA WorldBase is public domain, IIRC for *exactly* that reason.

Who is the master, who is the servant, and when did the roles reverse?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), August 22, 1999.

Andy Ray,

It was my understanding, via Chuck, you were gonna stop posting here.

So we should not respect your word?

Humm.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 22, 1999.

Andy Ray: LIAR LIAR PANTS ON FIRE!!!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 22, 1999.

Difficult to assess. Difficult to assess. Difficult to assess. (Are these big words?)

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 22, 1999.

Hmmmm, opinion vs. fact. You are right Andy AND Ray, best keep preparing.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), August 22, 1999.

The GPS rollover was never considered a big deal except for those who didn't update their receivers. Depsite plenty of warning, apparently a lot of Japanese drivers never did. SO why think that all of the small buisnesses in the US will fix their Y2K problems in time? Or governments?

Also, if we aren't "helpless without our systems", then why don't we fly without air traffic control radars?

I understand why some people might think Y2k won't be as severe as feared. I hope they're right. But that just doesn't square with the evidence that is increasingly leaking from the horse's mouth.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), August 22, 1999.

Let's stick with opinion for a while. Here's a few snips from an opinion that I posted yesterday, dated Aug. 20. <:)=

Millennium Investment Expert John Mauldin Calls for Full Disclosure

After two years of Y2K denial and complacency, consumers should demand to know the status of companies and agencies that directly affect them; and when Congress reconvenes next month, it is imperative that full disclosure be on the forefront of the legislative agenda.

Unless told the truth about Y2K compliance consumers can't properly prepare for whatever will happen when the world's computers turn over to 2000.

...

It is necessary all Americans contact their representatives in Washington, D.C. and demand full disclosure. There are nearly 50 current bills introduced in Congress that address Y2K. Yet, legislation relating to disclosure has languished in committee. It will take a major public outcry for such bills to be considered during this session.

...

A report by Dr. Howard Rubin, just released from Cap Gemini America profiled 144 Fortune 500 companies and 17 government agencies. The results were astounding. It showed 52 percent of the companies profiled would not be finished with their "mission critical" Y2K fixes by January 1, 2000. And 16 percent privately responded that they would be less than 75 percent ready by January 1.

...

The prevailing notion in our nation's capital is that if consumers are told the truth, it will inspire panic. But there is no evidence to support that notion. In Canada, the government candidly admits its Y2K concern. And in the United Kingdom, English Prime Minister Tony Blair has plastered his name all over posters warning about Y2K. In addition, overseas media openly discusses the extent of the problem and it has not provoked any riots.

Compare that to cover-ups in the United States. The Federal Reserve and many banks refuse to reveal what they know about the compliance status of banks and savings and loans. Most electric, gas, and phone companies do not even respond to association or government surveys; and if they do, many provide inadequate information about their Y2K status. Many private companies are skirting regulations and are refusing to disclose their Y2K budgets, despite SEC guidelines instructing them to disclose such information. And despite glowing reports from our nation's industries, the Government Accounting Office's (GAO) recent releases on utilities, water distribution and health care industries are equally negative.

Recently the GAO and other government watchdogs admitted that only three states (Iowa, Nebraska, and North Dakota) have tested their systems and are ready to face the New Millennium without fear of potentially dangerous glitches. Most states are waiting for the last-ditch October deadline to test their systems.

In addition, many programmers and consultants openly admit their companies and government agencies are redefining "compliance" in order to appear further along in their testing than they really are -- even though time is running out and there are 134 (on August 20, 1999) days until problems could surface.

...

Industry insiders know better. Survey after survey of technological professionals' show that anywhere from 40-to-50 percent foresees a serious economic crisis.

"It isn't a global conspiracy. It is human nature," said Mauldin. "When IT managers say everything is under control, government and business leaders believe them, even when statistics show that half of IT managers' estimates are dead wrong resulting in late projects.

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), August 22, 1999.

It is my understanding, from reading here and at other catastrophic Y2K sites, that the majority of 'GIs' propose to step up and admit their folly when nothing occurs 000101. Well? Some here predicted the GPS rollover would cause major disruptions...where are they now?

Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), August 22, 1999.

Those were trolls just as ignorant as you Andy Ray. They went "poof".

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 22, 1999.

Andy Ray babe! I miss you, I've been so lonely, you never call anymore.

-- porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), August 22, 1999.

I'm sorry, Mr. Ray, you must have confused this forum with one that gives a damn about your opinions.

-- Troll- (watching@the.bridge), August 22, 1999.

Mr. Ray

I will take your challenge. I had read many conflicting reports on the GPS issue, and decided that while not the complicated mess that is Y2K, because of uncertainty, I would be cautious in my planning for the date and week. I made Aug 20 to be my "all major Y2K preps done" day. I put off starting a big work project till after Labor Day. My family decided to stay near home base over GPS weekend. That was our GPS rollover plan.

So I guess if it makes you somehow feel better Mr. Ray, so far, I guess I was wrong thinking that there was any chance of trouble. Gosh, this may shock you, coming from a doomer, but I am glad there wasn't any trouble.

Now am I out anything for being cautious? No. Will I be out anything for being prepared and cautious for Y2K? No. Will I be glad IF Y2K is a dud? Yes. Will I admit that I am glad (overjoyed actually) Yes. I have better things to do with my life then chop wood, cook over an open fire and read by oil lamp.

But I'll be darned if I haven't got a good axe, a dutch oven and gallons of lamp oil, just in case.

-- Timothy (Farmer_Timothy@msn.com), August 23, 1999.