Did Laura get these dates wrong? I thought most problem are to occur the 4th quarter of this year? Or do we have a long bump in the road?

Most Y2K Failures Due 4Q Of Y2K - Gartner STAMFORD, CONNECTICUT, U.S.A., 1999 AUG 17 (NB) By Laura Randall, Newsbytes.

Countries and industry sectors have made unprecedented strides in the last installments of their Year 2000 preparation efforts, but many are basing their contingency plans on a narrow failure risk period that doesn't cover the time in which the worst problems are expected to occur, according to the Gartner Group's Year 2000 latest report.The Gartner Group, an information technology (IT) research firm that has studied Y2K compliance for the last two years, presented its last published report on the subject in a teleconference earlier today.

While businesses have made "unprecedented" progress in their Y2K compliance efforts between now and the fourth quarter of 1998, Gartner Group said it expects the majority of Y2K failures to hit in the fourth quarter of 2000.

"Contingency plans show limited understanding of when IT and supply chain failures will occur," stated the report, a copy of which was obtained by Newsbytes. Attempts to accurately determine the time horizon for Y2K failure have been limited in scope, have only dealt with small samples or parts of key applications and infrastructure, or haven't dealt with enough critical, non-IT-supported systems and dependencies, Gartner Group researchers found.

Lou Marcoccio, director of Y2K research at Gartner Group, said the main drivers of Year 2000 computer failures will be the use of non-compliant archived data, business transactions operating on a defective code and non-compliant software packages that are released to the market.

On a positive note, Gartner Group found that small- and medium-sized companies have closed the gap on large companies in terms of reaching the advanced end of compliance status. The firm also found that industries that were lagging far behind in Y2K compliance have made significant progress in the last three months. These industries include hospitality, insurance, investment services, retail, semiconductor and software, according to the Gartner Group.

Industries that remain behind in Y2K compliance are legal and medical practices and construction and small farming businesses, Marcoccio said.

Most countries, especially developing ones, are reporting solid strides in their Y2K compliance efforts, although Gartner Group warned that part of this is based on self-reported data that is considered unreliable. "Gartner Group analysts have become aware, through many other sources, of the sudden engagement of governments and trade associations that have realized that developed trading partners are likely to scale back operations where there was seen to be little willingness to tackle the problem," the report stated.

Finally, as the new year approaches, Gartner Group predicts that e-business will become the main driver of IT spending, as companies wrap up their Y2K efforts. By postponing e-business operations in the second half of 1999 as they geared for Y2K, businesses are creating a pent-up demand for global e-business implementations, the firm concluded.

More information about Gartner Group's Y2K research is available at http://www.gartner.com.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), August 19, 1999

Answers

Sheesh, pay attention. You buy 'em books, you send 'em to school, and they still don't get it. Y2K WILL BE A 3-DAY BUMP, MAX! We just don't know WHICH three days, yet, but we're working on it.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), August 19, 1999.

I find it more than a bit intriguing that the pronouncements from people with a fiduciary interest in Y2K failures keep pushing out the date when it all comes crashing down.

Now it's not till Q4/00. By then, it will likely be pushed out to 2002 (because, you see, the short-term band-aids and windowing techniques will only last so long, as well as the thoughtless use of older non-compliant data with no attention given to the editing of that data on the way into the system.)

Given adequate creativity on one side and a willingness to believe any dark prediction on the other, this thing could be extended indefinitely.

JZ

-- Jeff Zurschmeide (zursch@cyberhighway.net), August 19, 1999.

I find it more than a bit intriguing that the pronouncements from people with a fiduciary interest in Y2K failures keep pushing out the date when it all comes crashing down.

If you are going to engage in irrational practices (like smearing people because you perceive some motive of personal gain), try using the right words.

Fiduciary: "Of or relating to a holding of something in trust for another...."

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 19, 1999.

Based on the text of Gartner's discussion, I think they may have meant to say 4'th quarter 1999. Not that I agree with or understand that, but they stated that '99 failures were more likely to affect "customer-facing" operations. This statement, as well as Gartner's graph of number of failures predicted over time, would suggest they meant 4Q '99. I believe there continues to be a huge gap between Gartner's prediction of the timing of the worst failures and the general IT establishment's perception, and I have no clue which is right.

-- Bill Byars (billbyars@softwaresmith.com), August 19, 1999.

The Institute of Electrical and Electronics, Inc. sheds some light on this:

"4.1 Y2K IS A LONG TERM, NOT SHORT TERM, PROBLEM. Irrespective of the notion of Y2K being about time, a point in time, or the fixation on the rollover event at midnight December 31, 1999, or even the name Year 2000 itself, Y2K computer problems will be causing computer system malfunctions and failures for years into the next decade. Y2K is much more about the dates that can span the century boundary represented in data that must be processed by software than it is about any calendar time or clock issues. Because of the vast amounts of these, the complex intertwining among them and our less than complete understanding of the whole, it will take years for the infrastructure to "calm down" after Y2K impacts themselves AND the impacts of the sometimes frantic and misguided changes we have made to it. The current prevention phase is only the beginning."

Read the full open letter they sent to the senate and congress in June at http://www.ie eeusa.org/FORUM/POLICY/99june09.html

Very interesting and informative letter.

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 19, 1999.