Jim Lord: Why I am watching intently but with skepticismgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Jim Lord indicates that he suspects numerous naval commanders have been instructed to keep secret the document he has described. The problem I have with that scenario has to do with a maxim I once read pertaining to conspiracy theories: the probability of a conspiracy unraveling increases exponentially as the number of people involved increases. What is the probability that numerous naval officers, including many with loved ones in the named cities, would keep quiet?
I subscribe to Jim Lord's newsletter, and I am certain he's not making anything up. But I do know from reading him that he, like Gary North, is not in love with the fractional reserve banking system. He seems to want it to fail. Maybe it needs to. I hope he hasn't allowed his revolutionary fervor to change his approach to doing everything reasonably possible to authenticate the document he has obtained.
If the document is real, it would seem more likely to me that the information has not been widely disseminated throughout the Navy. Nevertheless, the sheer number of people required to carry out the huge task of assessing all those utilities, which would have to include many people with access to utility workers and documents, makes it hard to believe some leaks would not already have happened. I am watching intently to see if this will be the event that blows the lid off, or humiliates the Y2K awareness movement.
-- Bill Byars (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 19, 1999
"... Nevertheless, the sheer number of people required to carry out the huge task of assessing all those utilities, which would have to include many people with access to utility workers and documents, makes it hard to believe some leaks would not already have happened..."
Isn't that possibly what we're dealing with here? The "inevitable" leak? To some Navy guy who wants to leak this, wouldn't Jim Lord be a likely candidate?
-- pshannon (email@example.com), August 19, 1999.
I've talked to Jim Lord in person and he's real. The Navy doc. could be real, but the list is realistic. All major cities are at risk, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure that out. As far as, Jim, North or others beef about the fractional reserve banking system, well, that is a Y2K FACTOR. Cash will be important, and if only 5% can get their hands on it, then it is part of the Y2K equation - just like panic, shortages, martial law, etc.
It only took me 15 minutes to become a GI. "The economy stupid" was first on my list of probable failures. Since that day, last Feb, 1998, I have read over 15,000+ pages of documents, none convinced me more than the first: Feb, 1998 Press Release from DoD that their computers would not be y2k ready until 2008-2014.
I, like most/many here have read tons of info, one story may have strength over another, but the ALL add up to the same thing. 30% failure across the board will not be unlikely and that means 30% unemployment, 30% without power, water, food, etc.
We are just fueling our neurosis by looking at this board hourly, hoping for that majic document or stock crash news... I know I am foolishly spending too much time here, but as John Lennon wrote, "I just had to look."
Humiliated or not, deep in our minds and heart, we know that it's prudent to be out of ALL Major Cities. A Navy doc. telling us land lubbers that there will be problems will not change my mind. Disinformation will spread about a truth and people will stay confused till the "storm of all storms" hit. And after that, all into 2001 the rumors, the truths and the lies will still be told.
This is the way we will end this century, on a very sad note. All fools that we are. I just wish I could stop looking at this web-board (as GREAT as it is) for a week or two and not think that I will miss that #1 document, story or scoop.
I AM CONVINCED, as convinced as I was from day one.
-- dw (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 19, 1999.
I'm partially skeptic as well. Although I'm surprised Koskinen responded as quickly as he did. That rapid response indicates to me that .gov is more keenly disturbed by Y2K dissemination over the internet than I'd imagined.....
What I want to know is whether that data is currently being acted upon. A week or so ago we had a thread where some sort of military base was soliciting bids for rented generators... for the at-risk cities referenced, I'm curious if any procurement efforts for generators, fuel, water storage etc. are underway.
That would be the only way to determine whether the data in the report is accurate, or simply incomplete, as in the utility never returned the base commander's calls and the commander never followed up, and the "3" stuck.
I could see New York not returning calls re the status of utilities, but ~15 Florida cities, including Orlando?
Also.... I'd think a utility would be more likely to offer the true state of remediation progress to any military branch who inquired... it's the little guys like ourselves who are easiest to brush off.
-- Lisa (email@example.com), August 19, 1999.
The quick response was rather amazing wasn't it? Here is the way it happened. I was at a meeting with John just this morning. We both got back to our respective offices and started to read e-mail. I read about the Navy Assessment report and asked John what the story was. He wrote right back saying that a citizen had asked about it earlier and that the had looked into it. As a result he was able to quickly give me the skinny which I quickly passed on to the world to try to clear the air.
Things don't always move this fast in Washington but get the right people by their computer and it can!
-- Steve Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 19, 1999.
It didn't "clear the air" because his response didn't make sense.
-- Dog Gone (email@example.com), August 19, 1999.
Here's the real skinny folks. No matter how 'ready' any agency claims to be, the fact is that nothing has been 'real-time' tested. The gird hasn't been tested, social security hasn't been tested, banks haven't been tested, maybe 1/10 of 1% has had a real world test. So basically we're all gonna hold our breath and hope that the world works on January 1? Yea, right, sure its gonna work. Sure all that code is gonna work. As far as I can tell, all the real world tests have failed miserably. And the grid is gonna make. Pollys are in for it.
-- justincase (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 19, 1999.
On his website and in the y2k News Radio broadcast this morning, Jim L. invited public dialogue on the issue.
He recommends that people contact the utility providers listed and let them know that the Navy doesn't think they're going to make it. With this approach, he hopes to foster public debate between utilities and local Navy reps. Might work, if enough noise gets made.
Good way to test credibility.
-- PH (ag3X@interlog.com), August 19, 1999.
Though conspiracy theorists have blown a few conspiracies wide open, there is a much longer list of people who made claims that were later proven false. I'm ready for whatever happens - most rednecks are. We'll eat and stay warm no matter what. The jury is still out on this Lord guy though, and I for one will just wait and see what shakes out in the long run.
-- a (email@example.com), August 19, 1999.
Koskinen's "Take" On Jim Lord's Pentagon Papers (Steve Davis-- Coalition 2000))
-- Diane J. Squire (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 19, 1999.
What is the probability that numerous naval officers, including many with loved ones in the named cities, would keep quiet?
It is very well documented that the assassination of JFK was a conspiracy. From the evidence, it can be reasonably concluded that members of the Mafia, CIA and Naval Intelligence were involved in the plot.
-- ex-spook (@ .), August 19, 1999.
Here's what I found so far (of a similar nature) on the navy.mil Y2K site: http://www.cnoy2k.navy.mil/ny2k/ny2k.htm
open the PPoint file: Expected Facilities Infrastructure Problems
Let us know if anyone finds anything more concrete...
-- Hugh (email@example.com), August 19, 1999.
Good find Hugh. I don't have Powerpoint either and I'm real curious to see it. Hope someone else can view and post it here. I downloaded the file just in case a blackhole swallows it up.
-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 19, 1999.
Bill Byars, you stated: The problem I have with that scenario has to do with a maxim I once read pertaining to conspiracy theories: the probability of a conspiracy unraveling increases exponentially as the number of people involved increases. What is the probability that numerous naval officers, including many with loved ones in the named cities, would keep quiet?
My question to you is...what reputable MASS news establishment (tv or newspaper) that you know of would print it? By reputable, I mean LA Time, NY Times, Washington Post, you get the drift.
That is the only way a significant amount of people would hear about it. Regardless of any number of naval officers and their families knowing anything, it would be relegated to rumor unless that rumor were substantiated with the proper venue.
That's the way it works, here in the ol' USA.
-- OR (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 19, 1999.