Hey Guys,

I've never posted a new thread in this forum before but have lurked here for a long time. I read with much interest, as much from this place as I can absorb in a given day. My status as a lurker is that of a "GI" and have prepared for what I believe to be a 7-8 on the scale. I am a business owner of a $10M + per year company in the south. Am in my early 40's with 3 kids, two out of high school and in college. Been married for 22 years and consider myself pretty well-rounded. I simply have one question for you to respond to.

Let's suppose that we do have problems that you do not expect to happen and they create much havoc. Perhaps along the lines of what many in here believe could cause chaos but not necessarily TEOTWAKI. By not having done anything to prepare for that case scenario, what will you do? I'm not looking for some off-the-wall-answer here. I truly am interested in what you plan on doing for yourself and your families. If things begin to cascade and get out of hand for several weeks or a couple of months, how will you cope?

I am not looking to embarass you or make you look foolish to the others that may read what you post but I genuinely am concerned for people who think this is nothing at all to prepare for. I am fortunate enough to be able to prepare in much detail and in large enough quantities that I can and will help as many as I can for as long as I can. Some of you may even be on the receiving end of this help. But many others of my like-mindedness may tell you to take a flying leap. I will go so far as to state that I think North and Milne may be on the extreme end of the scale but who knows? I will not give them grief because it does not affect me how much they put into their preps. What does bother me are those that stick their heads in the sand and say it can't or won't happen, period. YOU simply don't know either, period. If you are that sure of yourself and what you may know, then why bother to buy any insurance for your car if you KNOW that you are a very careful driver and will NEVER have an accident. Certainly no one here will fault you at the end of the year if you spent money on auto insurance and did not need it. You have it as a precaution and well you should.

I confess that I am not "geek enough" to be able to do much on a computer. Quite honestly I can't even type very well. But, I can read and study a matter well enough to know that no one, absolutely NO ONE can say for sure what is going to happen on 1-1-2000 or in the few weeks or months thereafter. So, as a precaution of the unknown, I don't have to be "geek enough" to see that it's not worth risking the lives or the well-being of my family to simply fluff this thing off.

You may attack me or my character or even my stability as a man for doing what I'm doing, this I can handle. But shouldn't you at least consider that things might not go exactly as you think they will? Remember one last thing before you respond to my diatribe here, the builder's and owner's of the Titanic said she was unsinkable...and they were sure she was.....

I look forward to hearing from you.

Don

-- don (mrmtgman@aol.com), August 17, 1999

Answers

To the top of New Answers. Maybe this will their heads out of their ... uhhh ... I mean out of the sand.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 17, 1999.

Yeah, i'm looking forward to hearing this too....

-- Super (Slfsl@yaho.com), August 17, 1999.

Don

Nice "from the heart" piece. I think that raising childern raises the protection gene a hundred fold. My Daughter will be 20 during the rollover and it is comforting that she has started her way into life. Folks with young childern though have my sympathy on what they can do to assure the safety and well being of their family. This is normally difficult enough with out the uncertianty of next year.

Good luck to your family Don.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), August 17, 1999.

Just a thought. My state requires that you have car insurance otherwise you can not get a new registration.

-- sleepless (Sleepy@yahoo.com), August 17, 1999.

Hi, Don.

I know I wasn't named, but I believe in insurance as much as anyone, so I've prepared as well as I can considering nobody can know what we face in detail. My own preparations cover some infrastructure problems (power failures or unreliable power, no water or water not drinkable, etc.), and some shortage problems (stocks of food and other stuff we consume regularly -- the usual TP stuff), and even some higher-prices problems (some things we've stocked up on probably won't be that useful, like motor oil, but we got into the habit of buying a bunch when we found a good deal, rather than buying JIT).

I think our preparations are mostly good for about a year, more in some cases (like heat and light and canned food) and somewhat less in other cases (like bottled water). However, if we're looking at economic problems (i.e., unemployment) then we have not prepared very well, beyond doing everything possible to get out of debt. But this will leave not much money to live on, so if I lose my job, we'll *need* those supplies and other preparations.

Also, I think you may have confused stakes and odds (a common confusion around here, it seems). Over in csy2k today, Milne was unable to distinguish between stating the odds of a fire accurately, and arguing that fire insurance is stupid. This peculiar mistake seems so common -- that anyone who realistically assesses something as being of low probability, therefore sees no reason to guard against it.

This mentality seems idea-proof, based on what's written here and in csy2k. WHY do so many people automatically assume that anyone who knows the *real* odds of a fire (or a car wreck), won't insure themselves? When anyone argues that a y2k meltdown is very unlikely (but still possible), WHY do people assume they aren't preparing?

In fact, it's even worse. People who assess the odds of a meltdown (or a house fire) as being low are not only assumed NOT to be insuring, but are accused of *telling* other people NOT to insure themselves. And no matter how many times they extol the virtues of preparation, and no matter how often they tell other people to prepare just in case, they are *still* accused of telling people not to prepare. And if (as in my case) they detail their own preparations, they are accused of being *hypocrites* because they are insuring against what they see as a low probability event!

Apparently, the fundamental idea of insurance is beyond the doomies. Please don't fall into this trap.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 17, 1999.

Their real answers probably would be too embarrassing, such as: I don't have 10 mil to worry about, I'm in my 20's, no kids or wife to worry about either, and I have all day to spout off my green mouth on the internet.

-- Just guessin' (guesses@R.us), August 17, 1999.

Flint, you better watch out before you're flamed for buying in to this "y2k hoax". From what you describe as your preps you would be considered a "doomie".
-- Mr. Incognito (just m@king . point), August 17, 1999.

off

-- nope (nope@nope.nope), August 17, 1999.

As Flint so well illustrates, the notion of preparing (insuring against) an event, even if of low probability (purely for the sake of argument), at a particular pre-designated point in time, is something that our pollyannas just cannot fathom. They argue that since they believe that Y2K problems have a low probability, they should no more prepare for them then they would some other low probability event. They completely dismiss the pre-designated point in time factor.

Let me illustrate with an example, which I think was actually used once by Mr. Decker in one of his threads. If you think that the probability of an auto accident is low, do you make "extreme preparations", such as wearing a helmet, bringing tons of first aid equipment, communications equipment, etc., everywhere and every time that you drive? On the other hand, I ask: If I told you that this low probability event, if it is going to happen, will happen on a pre-designated day at a pre-designated time, then maybe in fact you should make "extreme preparations". After all, its a one-time thing, why take chances?

BTW, I personally believe Y2K will be a high probability disaster. But, of course, that is why I am a "Doomer"....

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), August 17, 1999.

Flint,

I appreciate your response and honestly started to add your name to the list...but, I have heard you explain of your preps and have had somehwhat of a hard time determining exactly where you "fit" into this forum. It's not that I automatically assume that these folks might not be preparing, it just seems to me that they give a very difficult time to those that do and I am wanting to know what they will do if it turns out to be a bad time. Obviously you have taken care of some major things and will be in a considerably better state than most but again, what if this turns out to be a big deal? Wouldn't taking some precaution be better than giving those that choose to prepare the grief that is passed out here and elsewhere? My business has always been based on preparing for "plan B", just-in- case. It has always worked for me and seldom have we had to fall back on "plan B", but it was there nonetheless. It would simply seem to me that being prudent to do something is better than walking away from this issue.

I remember a finger being waived in my face in January of 98' and looked straight in my eyes and told a flat out lie. The lie was continually perpetuated by subordinates at all costs. There seems to be an all-out effort afoot right now to cover those same bases, just a different storyline this time. I didn't bite then and won't now...

Thanks Flint.

-- don (mrmtgman@aol.com), August 17, 1999.

Jack:

You're right, I cannot understand your "pre-designated time factor." Whenever I drive a car, is the pre-designated time when an accident might happen. If I'm taking a long trip, I'll pack things I wouldn't pack for a short trip, of course. I try to match my preparations to the event as well as I can.

But knowing what risk you face is not at all the same as knowing when you face it. In this case, we have a fair idea of when things might go south if they do, but we don't really know what that will mean in enough detail to prepare more than generally.

So there are two issues here: (1) WHEN is your point in time? At the stroke of rollover midnight? Or anytime from now until (say) 2001, or 2010 (yourdon) or 2050 (Infomagic)? and (2) Once you pick this time, WHAT will happen then? Yes, we know y2k is a one-time problem, which hasn't really happened yet and might not, or might be spread out over years, or might be three days, or who knows? NOW, since we have this all pinned down [grin], why don't the stupid pollies prepare EVEN HARDER? Gosh, I don't know.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 17, 1999.

As for "preparations", I guess you can say I'm generally prepared for a week. Really nothing to do with Y2k. Grew up in the Northern Midwest, and we always were generally prepared for about a week, especially in winter. Moved to the mid-South, and got kind of lax. A local ice-storm last winter knocked the power out in a neighboring area for more than a week, and got me to stock up some.

I've got absolutely nothing against those who feel the need to "prepare" longer. Am only 2 generations away from "very" conservative Mennonite relatives, and still have not so distant relatives leading the "plain" life. So I really have nothing against even those who have "gone to earth", as it were.

But, I feel that people have the right to base those decisions on as accurate information as possible. I have some experience and expertise in aspects of Y2k, and even now, see tremendous amounts of misinformation being spewed. Y2k is a problem. A large enough problem, in fact, that it does not need to be exaggerated, or overhyped.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), August 17, 1999.

Flint has been established as not being a Polly a long time ago, last fall on this forum if I remember well. There was a thread debating what being a "Pollyanna" and beeing a "GI" (Doomer now I guess) meant.

It's easy to get lost in labels and rhetorics. And reputations here stick on people as good as duct tape.

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 17, 1999.

Labels are meaningful. Liberals ARE different than Conservatives. Gun control advocates ARE different than those who support the Second Amendment.

Flint IS a super-polly: he believes that the societal impacts of Y2K will be insignificant. Yes, they "might" be worse, but "insignificant" is what he has stated he believes. And I'm glad he has. Goodness knows it took him long enough to spit it out.

Being a polly is not a leprous condition anymore than being a doomer, but knowing where people stand makes conversation and debate MORE possible, not less.

Though I disagree entirely with Hoff's analysis of Y2K status and impacts, I respect his willingness to stand consistently behind his convictions. Aside from his consistency in blasting doomers as fanatics (which fits with his polly views), Flint wants to have everything both ways. Actually, an indefinitely large number of ways.

Flint's posts generally add up, quite precisely, to "zero". Koskinen is grossly amateurish compared to our boy. It DID look like things were getting better when he "outed himself" but he has withdrawn behind his cloak again, recently.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 18, 1999.

Don,

Your fear of attack seems misplaced. With most of the "optimists," a civil question will receive a civil answer.

I readily acknowledge the possibility of significant Y2K problems. To borrow Flint's analogy, most reasonable people realize a house can burn to the ground. The real question... how much is one willing to pay to minimize the risk?

As a successful businessman, chances are you have a nice home. How much per year are you willing to spend on fire insurance? $100? $1,000? $10,000? How far are you willing to go to minimize risk to your family. Do you have an fire evacuation plan and do you conduct regular drills with your family? (Surprisingly, most people do not.) Do you have smoke and CO detectors on every floor? Fire extinguishers? Do you have a residential sprinkler system?

There is no question a house fire could kill your entire family. Personally, I do not have high pressure, overhead sprinklers or a halon system over my range. In my opinion, this is overkill. As a prudent person, I do have fully-charged extinguishers on every floor, an excellent smoke detection system, alternative routes of egress, etc.

If a fire breaks out, my first reaction will be... "Damn!"

My second reaction will be to use the resources at hand to avoid becoming a "Class Alpha" fire myself. You can expect the same reaction from me in the event of any disaster.

[If the forum were about fire prevention... some of our resident pessimists might gather on the lawn and laugh over my death because I thought the sprinkler system was excessive.]

My instinct, Don, is to treat Y2K as a risk. Like everyone, I make judgements about risk on a daily basis. I drive to and from work... knowingly full well the risks associated with automobile travel.

There is always the potential for things to go terribly wrong. (One of my staff was involved in an accident today.) In some cases, the most careful person can fall victim to fate. Even the most serious pessimist on this forum faces the odds of a fatal turn of events... a heart attack, freak accident, etc. There are no guarantees, Don.

So, what will I do if we face the "end of the world." I'll do my best to preserve order and to assist my fellow man. There are men and women throughout America who will do the same. I have no plans to hide, gnawing on stored food and hiding in the shadows, while some rabble drags America back into the dark ages. I will not stand idly by if the malcontents and miscreants decide to lay siege to the Republic.

If Y2K is the Great Meltdown... the fate of America will once again be determined by its people. It will come down to millions of individual decisions.

Having survived disasters, I have worked shoulder-to-shoulder with folks. I have seen people risk everything for a family they did not know. The cynics see the state of modern affairs and dismiss Americans as incapable of greatness. I do not believe them.

Where do you want to be, Don? On the battlements, or in the basement?

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 18, 1999.

Decker said:

"So, what will I do if we face the "end of the world." I'll do my best to preserve order and to assist my fellow man. There are men and women throughout America who will do the same. I have no plans to hide, gnawing on stored food and hiding in the shadows, while some rabble drags America back into the dark ages. I will not stand idly by if the malcontents and miscreants decide to lay siege to the Republic."

Decker, I am truly glad to see that, when all is said and done, you will be standing shoulder to shoulder with the vast majority of the doomer regulars on this forum who share EXACTLY the same conviction.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 18, 1999.

My family has been into preparedness since the sixties, we did'nt need the fallout shelter but it didn't hurt to have the insurance. Our level of preparedness has ebbed during some time periods and increased in others. The 70's increased our level because an economic and societal melt down seemed likely. Our level has increased again because of y2k. And I'm sure some might call it extreme and others a waste of resources.

Extreme Doomers don't bother me at all because they offer valuable insights into evaluating various threats. What does offend me are the Doomers who attach the very real threat of y2k to their personal agendas (NWO Fractional Reserve Banking Black Helicopters Etc).

Some people come to this forum looking for y2k survival help and read the "everything is a plot by everyone" posts and write off y2k as just another wacko end of the world fantasy and go away to make no preps at all.

-- Chief (bmc@sealres.chitown), August 18, 1999.

Jack,

I am flattered you remembered my short essay. While Flint will chastize this observation, I am curious about the inconsistencies among the serious pessimists. If personal safety is paramount, why not drive the speed limit, observe all traffic laws, wear a helmet, etc? When I attended the Y2K gathering in Virginia, I was surprised the number of pessimists who were rather heavy smokers. There is a clear link between regular smoking and serious health problems. Does anyone see the irony of someone worrying about Y2K with a cigarette in one hand?

We all accept risk as a part of daily living. We also distort risk because, well, we're human. We readily accept the risks of driving, even in inclement weather, but we fret about all sorts of low probability risks... a classic example of nonrational behavior.

By the way, Hoff, I enjoyed the exchange with Mr. Heller. I thought you presented a lucid, thoughtful argument. Perhaps we'll see Russ' counter-argument sometime soon.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 18, 1999.

Sorry, Russ, but I disagree. First, the vast majority of American's are not "serious Y2K pessimists." Second, some of your compatriots are the ones rooting for "the fall." Or who have a smug, selfish attitude about the whole affair. Perhaps the ghouls who actively wish the "Pollyannas" die slowly might serve as an example.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 18, 1999.

Decker, I said the "vast majority", not all. And the statement stands: what you said is exactly what the vast majority of doomers on this forum believe. Sorry, but you'll need all the help you can get when you try to save the Republic.

I thought the debate between Hoff and Steve was excellent. While I'm not terribly interested in the debate topic anymore (Y2K has always been boring and I'm more interested in post-rollover at this point), I DO hope to find the time to digest it quietly and then respond.

As a capsule, I think Hoff has a shot at being right in general, but a very small one. His two most compelling points, IMO, were the arguments about dormant applications and the triviality of Y2K errors, as such. Otherwise, his argument rests too heavily on Gartner assumptions and a few other faulty premises. I think George V made the most compelling counter-point in the debate as it stood, namely, that Hoff does not take into account the global status except trivially. ng's arguments were also quite germane and were ignored unfortunately in the post-debate.

My own approach is somewhat different, though, than that taken by the participants and I'm not sure I will get the time to address this.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 18, 1999.

Don........

Good question.......and a good question from someone who is asking it in the right spirit.......that is why I will give you a straight answer.......

First of all, I have never criticized reasonable preparations......as a matter of fact I have stuck out my neck in my community recommending reasonable preparations and taken some flack for it.......I am well known here and was quoted by our local newspaper a few times. I did this in spite of the fact that I work for one of our towns largest companies and am partially involved in Y2k work....when I question the power company about their Y2k readiness, it costs me something......the details I won't get into again......however because I honestly feel that disruptions will be serious but not TEOTWAWKI, I have been trashed on this forum many times.....

I don't claim to have special insight, however as a programmer and long-time business owner IMHO we have always had software problems and although these are one step beyond the norm, I firmly believe we'll come out the other end. Will it be 3days, 1 week or 2 months of problems.......I don't know........but I certainly know that the extremists have taken this real problem and used it to further their own agendas and/or paranoias........

If I have learned one lesson in life, it is that BALANCE is crucial. The extremes rarely are correct.......not that they are impossible, but rarely are they the right path.

I can intelligently argue any possible scenario for the Y2K outcome because there are so many variables.........however, I feel that the TEOTWAWKI proponents are so often so far out of whack that I want to stand up and bring a bit of reality back to the discussion.

Honestly Don, if they could stick to Y2k we could have some great discussions. But because their mindset is one of 'TEOTWAWKI' they regularly bring up completely OFF TOPIC things such as black helicopters, white vehicle, contrails, NWO, Satan, Klinton, earth- destroying asteroids, Nostradamus, Noah, End-times Pseudo-preaching, earthquakes, tornadoes, Dow Jones, 666, Militias, David Koresh, bring back the good ol' times, I have the right to walk down Main Street with my AK47 if I want to etc...........

It's amusing in a warped kind of way......you'll rarely if ever see an OT item that is good news.......again, there is no balance there whatsoever. The agenda is quite clear to see.

Software is complex at the best of times. Breakdowns are common. They will likely get worse for the next year or two, but we will come out the other end. Not unscathed, but not like some of the 'Road Warrior' crap that gets posted here.

The other issue that gets me blackballed here is the fact that although I used to be an 'end times' believer, through many years of study I have come to realize the fallacy in that belief system. It riles many of the 'religious right' that one of their own has seen the truth and now disagrees with them.......I know all their verses, I used to teach them for heavens sake.......yet they cannot imagine for one moment that perhaps they have misunderstood what was really written.

Yes, I am outspoken at times and these are the things that I will always speak out to correct the errors that many here would call the truth:

1. Y2k may be more complex and problematic than other computer problems but has been, and will continue to be solved in the same way as before; reproramming, workarounds and contingency plans.

2. Many misguided folks here are convinced that God is a Republican; they are more accurately followers of the Old Testament and as of yet, do not have a clue about what the New Testament has revealed. Their life's motto seems to be 'Don't smoke, don't drink, and I want to torture a gay person because God hates 'em anyway'........these are the folks that regularly curse me here and it is sad that they really know nothing about the true message of love.....Oh well......

3. Those sad misguided people that try to forward their agenda by claiming we are in the last days..........and there are a lot of them here............like the toaster, their spin on things was invented in the 20th Century and is a warped and twisted interpretation of the real thing. They sow fear in the minds of the innocent and quite frankly make me want to puke........I will contest their bizarre claims and hopefully set the minds of those that might fall into their oppressive trap free........

So if Y2k is the issue and can be discussed for what it is, I am all for it Don......however wherever weirdness rears its' ugly head, you'll find me there combatting it!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), August 18, 1999.

Craig, You put it much better than I did a couple of posts up. Can I also add the people who seem to look forward to shooting their neighbors when they come asking for food? Y2K is a big enough problem without the conspiracy idiocy.

-- Chief (bmc@sealres.chitown), August 18, 1999.

Thanks Chief......

You reminded me of one thing I forgot.......CANNIBALISM.

We actually had a few threads discussing eating people if things got bad enough.......the really tragic part is, some of them were serious......

Almost makes me want to market a line of Y2k Gourmet Sauces.......4 flavours, Beef, Chicken, Pork and Human.............

Oh Yeah, almost forgot the unforgetable thread about living in a buried school bus..........i think I got flamed for suggesting that perhaps they let the little children off before they buried it in their backyard.....

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), August 18, 1999.

Don

As you may know, there is probably no larger (metaphorically speaking) "Polly" than myself on this forum. Anyone who has read any of my nasty little diatribes, knows that I believe the date change may be a complete non-event. I have however, never, ever counseled anyone to "not prepare."

As I have stated before, I had the opportunity to witness the devastating effects of the ice storm in Ottawa and Montreal last year and I was nonplussed. At the time, I had no contingency plans in place in case of a loss of fundamental services in my own home. I have now.

For me, the provisions, water, alternate heat and light sources and medicine are adequate for my comfort zone. I do not rail at those who prepare - I oppose the one-dimensional end of the world thugs who lick their lips in slavish desire at the thought of their fellow human beings dyeing. I object to the tinfoil hat-wearing crowd who see Y2K as an extension of their white-wing conspiracy theories well documented above by Craig.

So, now that we're straight - prepare away

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), August 18, 1999.

My only comment is a "Bravo" to all the respondents on this thread. It's refreshing to read thoughtful, well-formed opinions to a legitimate question without having to wade through name calling, ad hominem responses and scatalogical references.

I happen to be a "doomer," but I'm not incapable of appreciating intelligence and an ability to argue in that manner.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), August 18, 1999.

May I add $.02?

Considering what is at risk should supply lines see any significant disruptions, why not buy insurance to protect yourself and family?

What do you pay for your auto insurance? How much for homeowners? Life insurance? Medical? Add it up. I will go out on a limb and say that it adds up to a couple of grand per year. Why not spend this same amount on items that could save your life, or, in a lesser scenario, at least make your life comfortable if there are shortages? If you buy things that you will use anyway, you have lost nothing, zero loss, no possible downside.

Honest to God, I cannot for the life of me figure out why someone would reject this cheap insurance (costs nothing in the long run other than a few extra trips to the market) when the stakes are as high as anything else you are buying insurance for now.

To me it is the equivalent of saying "I have concluded that my house will not burn down, therefore I refuse to insure it. Nope, I will not do it, not even if you give me my premiums back."

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), August 18, 1999.

Good question.

I was going thru the pantry last night in preparation for the bi-weekly trip to the grocery store and I realized that I have (right now without even trying) at least 2 weeks of 'stuff' my family could live off of if the stores were to empty tonight. This is the status BEFORE I go to the store.

I wonder how many people are that prepared and don't even know it? Granted, some of the food in there I would only eat if I was REAL hungry and there was nothing else in the house. But it's there.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 18, 1999.

Don writes in para 2, "Let's suppose that...

What will you do?" Thank-you to Flint and Decker for answering the question. Perhaps Hoff, Craig and y2k Pro can re-read Don's question and answer it.

Irritated

-- Irritated (answerthe?@please.com), August 18, 1999.

It appears we have inadvertantly turned over quite a large stone here. They are crawling out in every direction!!

I would like to thank BigDog for the following remark:

"Flint wants to have everything both ways. Actually, an indefinitely large number of ways.

Flint's posts generally add up, quite precisely, to "zero". Koskinen is grossly amateurish compared to our boy. It DID look like things were getting better when he "outed himself" but he has withdrawn behind his cloak again, recently. "

I could have spent a lifetime and never said it quite as concisely!! many thanks BigDog.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@tottacc.com), August 18, 1999.

Beano, you have TWO WEEKS of food in your pantry. Do you have any idea how inconsiderate this is. Some would call it the H-Word, I will not be so unkind.

I sincerely hope you are prepared to SHARE and SHARE big time!!

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@tottacc.com), August 18, 1999.

Slowly but surely we will discover that the TB2000 pollys have more food and supplies stockpiled than 99.99% of the world's population.

Hypocrisy at its finest...

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

How's it going 'a'?

Find any other old articles to post?

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), August 18, 1999.

Hoff, the story I posted appeared on Excite and ZDNet today. The bottom line is, there is no timetable to implement the fixed software.

Now, would you like to address this, or just throw in another off topic comment to steer readers away from the fact that pollys are preparing like mad?

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

little a and baby ray

Two little pitiful peas in a pod. Hypocrite??? Hilarious!!!

Yall can do better than that I hope!! Probably not...........

If you two guys removed your heads from Milne's rectum there's no telling what you could see.........

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 18, 1999.

one last thing before I go little a and baby ray

I've NEVER told anyone not to prepare. Living in hurricane territory, it's a way of life. What I HAVE suggested was to keep your job and leave your money in the bank. BIG DIFFERENCE RAY. One is prudent, the other is PANIC.

All cleared up for ya now buddy?? Probably not.........

Deano

-- deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 18, 1999.

Beano commented:

"All cleared up for ya now buddy?? Probably not......... "

Beano, unfortunately it IS NOT cleared up. The K-Man has cosistently said 3 DAYS supply of food and water is adequate.

You are HOARDING 14 days with the intention of going out and buying MORE to add to this considerable HOARD. The question is do you intend to SHARE with less fortunate neighbors and friends when y2k arrives?? Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 18, 1999.

And here I was afraid that Ray didn't have a sense of humor.....

Hee Hee Dat's a good un.

Stinkin hoarders...

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), August 18, 1999.

Don:

What did I tell you? I hardly got finished saying that some doomies simply don't know the difference between insurance and hyprocrisy, and up pops 'a' to prove my point TWICE! Some doomies are so rigidly mindless that they *know* they're jumping through hoops on command, and they still just can't help themselves.

But double thanks to 'a' for volunteering to be a zoo exhibit.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 18, 1999.

Don:

I'm sure you hadn't thought about this before presenting this thread, but it's been my experience in my short time on this forum that whenever a thread specifically calls to those who see Y2k unfolding more optimistically, the more pessimistic on the forum seem compelled to enter the thread with the sole purpose of flaming those called. For this reason, I choose not to accept the "bait" of these threads.

My E-mail works, if you're interested in another opinion.

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), August 18, 1999.

Uncle Deedah, many thanks, PLEASE do not turn Beano in. He is merely acting on behalf of his family and "The Children".

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 18, 1999.

Well....maybe if some Pollys would answer the question....(not that I'm a doomer, more of a worrier)

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), August 18, 1999.

Gee Flint, maybe you can explain to Don, once again, why you have stockpiled a years worth of food, why you have said on this forum that "I know it's bad for the system, but I am removing all my money from the bank", and why you and your wife get out your guns and target practice every week, while at the same time you claim "Y2K effects will be insignificant" and ridicule others that say the evidence is conclusive that it will be a disaster. Remember that hundreds of millions of folks live in high rise apartments in large cities Flint, not out in the boonies like yourself.

If that's not hypocrisy, please point me to a better definition.

And BTW, this is getting old Flint. Why don't you just admit that you've prepared to the hilt, more so than me or most doomers, and let it rest?

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

And also, note that in the eyes of most on this forum, you must look very silly for stocking up like Randy Weaver then dismissing y2k as "not much to worry about".

Likewise, Hoff, who concedes that y2k may turn out a lot worse than he imagines, looks foolish for not buying inexpensive preparations now while the insurance is cheap.

A big brain does not necessarily make a man wise I guess...

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

Please forgive me the absolute.

I meant to say if MORE Pollys answer the question, instead of merely justifying why they feel as they do. Reasoning out your position is easy, admitting that you are screwed if things go really bad is tougher.

Cheers!

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), August 18, 1999.

'a':

I'm willing to explain, but you need to be willing to read. So far, you haven't shown any such willingness.

Let's say I am heavily insured against my house burning down. Unlike you, this does NOT prevent me from assessing the odds of a house fire. These odds are low, but not zero. IF I should be one of the very unlucky few to suffer such a fire, I am prepared to make a full recovery. I don't expect to NEED my insurance, because few houses actually burn down. But just because such an event is rare doesn't mean it's impossible, and if I can insure against it, why not?

NOW, let's say an ignoramus like you comes along insisting that all houses are guaranteed to burn down. This position is NOT supported by the available evidence; indeed it never has been and as more data come in the indications are clearer and clearer that just the opposite is true. Those making the claim that ALL houses are guaranteed to burn to the ground are simply not rational -- they have let their fears overcome their judgment (at best). As much as anything in life, the evidence is conclusive that y2k will NOT be a disaster, but can selectively distress some people, much like a house burning down.

Since I don't know whether or not I may be one of the few people hit hardest by y2k, and since insurance is reasonable, I buy it. If you believe that ANYONE who takes out insurance against ANY low probability event is hypocritical, you need to return to sanity. Insurance against low-probability events is prudent, not hypocritical. If the odds are low but the stakes are high, and if insurance is affordable, it's foolish NOT to have it.

You seem to be convinced that in order to justify the expense of insurance, you have to keep insisting that whatever you're insured against is SURE to happen. And if the evidence is clearly otherwise, why, you ignore it and keep chanting that ALL HOUSES WILL BURN! Sorry, this is not necessary, not intelligent, and not honest.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 18, 1999.

The moron Flint said:

[the possibility that y2k will be a major disaster] is NOT supported by the available evidence; indeed it never has been and as more data come in the indications are clearer and clearer that just the opposite is true.

I must have missed that evidence, Flint. Was it the self reported progress reports similar to those on the F-22 like I posted here? Or was it deJager crying in his beer last week? Maybe it was Koskinen upping his "storm" forecast to 7 days? Hmmm? Or was it was the letter to governors from the Chemical Society warning of plant accidents over rollover? How about the fact that less of the Fortune 5000 expects to complete their remediation than six months ago? The FAA's non-existent IV&V from SAIC? The MCI fiasco? Could that be it? The record number of power failures in Chicago? The abnormally high incidence of plant explosions? Or how about the near 8.0 magnitude earthquake that set the Turkish refineries on fire? The record setting drought in the US? The increase of saber rattling in the Far East? Help me out here Flint, I just took a 4-day weekend, I must have missed it...

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

I bet it was the rash of office and day care shootings? Was that it? Or I know -- the banksters pushing the suggested sermon to preachers comparing y2k prep with The War Of The Worlds hoax! That was it, wasn't it!

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

Since Don has urged that we "Remember the Titanic", I'll start with that. It is a myth that the builders said she was unsinkable, that was hyperbole perpetuated by the media of the day. I'm quite certain that if you had asked engineers involved with the design of the Titanic what would have happened if the ship met up with a monstrous iceberg, they would have told you  glug ... glug  glug.

Does Y2K represent such an iceberg to our technological society? Yes it did, but that nasty block of ice passed by in about September of 1998, and since then has melted and fallen apart, posing no more threat than the cubes in my drink.

As for preparations, yes I have made arrangements for my family to spend Dec. 30 to Jan. 6 at one of the finest hotels on the continent, at an exorbitant rate which will put quite a dent in my nest egg saved from my remediation activities of the past two years. I could have made a great deal more by also working during the rollover period and holding the hands of some nervous Nellies, but after this long, tedious affair, I'm not about to miss the party.

Insurance? Yes, I have insurance on the unfortunate things in life which might plausibly happen, but I don't have insurance on all of these which are hypothetically possible. Consequently, I do not have any kind of insurance against meteorite strikes, attacks by killer bees, or solar flares. You can add Y2K disruptions to that list.

Don, just because you profess not to know what will happen, does not mean that nobody does. I, and many of my colleagues who have actually fixed this thing, do know. And in your parlance, we are happy to bet our lives on it. Please note that when I return on January 7, I will be ready to taunt the Y2K hysterics on this board without mercy.

-- Computer Pro (first_minister@hotmail.com), August 18, 1999.

Computer Pro, don't keep us in SUSPENSE, please share some DETAILS.

Hopefully it won't be along the lines of another PROfessed Pro around here. ay

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 18, 1999.

'a':

I wonder if you ever *read* what you write? But in any case, you're quite right about all of that. The explosions, the power failures, the earthquakes the droughts, the wars, the shootings. Mo God, we're reeling! Our jobs are...uh...still secure. Our communications are ...uh...well, still working. How about JIT? We all know how evil that is. Check the shelves in the stores...on second thought, forget it, they're all still full.

Well OK, maybe it's NOT all those things you list, which haven't seemed to have affected very much at all. So it must be all those things that are still coming like ... well, you had a hard time listing any of those. So here's 'a', ladies and gentlemen:

But gee, anyway, it'll be awful, trust me, becuase it *should* be awful right now, dammit. It's not MY fault that all these disasters haven't amounted to squat. But they will, trust me! And how do I know this? Because all the IV&V reports are lies, and all the progress reports are lies, and all the declarations of readiness are lies, and so is EVERYTHING ELSE. ALL LIES. LIES! LIES!!!

Uh, where was I? Oh yes, how do I know that everything is a lie except what I think ought to happen? Because I live in a rotten world, that's why. And I want all of YOU to live in a rotten world too. I want you all to HURT just like I do, I want it so bad I can't see straight. But that should be obvious by now.

Anyway 'a', if your list of problems that haven't shaken the world is the best you can offer, even YOU should be able to see that maybe reality is more resiliant than your fantasies. And if you can't see this, it's not my problem.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 18, 1999.

Flint, reposted from above in case you missed it:

It appears we have inadvertantly turned over quite a large stone here. They are crawling out in every direction!!

I would like to thank BigDog for the following remark:

"Flint wants to have everything both ways. Actually, an indefinitely large number of ways.

Flint's posts generally add up, quite precisely, to "zero". Koskinen is grossly amateurish compared to our boy. It DID look like things were getting better when he "outed himself" but he has withdrawn behind his cloak again, recently. "

I could have spent a lifetime and never said it quite as concisely!! many thanks BigDog.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@tottacc.com), August 18, 1999.

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 18, 1999.

Poor Ray!

I don't know, but quoting yourself on the same thread sorta reminds me of someone looking in the mirror to be sure they're still there...

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), August 18, 1999.

Allow me to point out that Flint's Fluff is tired, old and has holes worn in it. But Craig.....now there's something exceptionally covert, ignorant and full of feces. Vic appears to think Craig provided "thoughtful, well informed opinions. Intelligent?" I'm really hoping Vic forgot to 'refresh' before posting!

Not much new here. They make their appearance, spew their goo and depart without answering the question.

:0 yawn

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 18, 1999.

Flint: its only August 1999 -- you ain't seen nothing yet, we haven't even had the "wake-up call" yet. And how about knock it off with the "'a' wants the world to be a rotten world" crap. I can see the writing on the wall and am intelligent enough to act on it, you on the other hand, continue in your blind stupor believing that 30 years of IT metrics will be proven wrong and that y2k is a hoax. Oh excuse me, "insignificant". As I have explained to you over and over and over again, y2k is a catalyst Flint. We are in for major change, starting with a massive economic collapse, and it will be painful, especially to ignorami like yourself that have been duped into thinking y2k is "fixed".

Computer Pro: At the rate that businesses are canceling plans for millennium functions, I would be surprised if it's not us laughing at you when you find that you lost your "nest egg" in a non-refundable vacation fiasco booked at the most inopportune time imaginable. But if you do manage to get a room at the resort, you will probably have it to yourself as most of the working world will be on call, vacations cancelled. And there should be plenty of protection, as every law enforcement department will be over staffed to avoid new years "disturbances". I take it you're not going to be in any of the areas the state department has identified as "y2k risks" and I hope you're not flying on Virgin, or any of the other half dozen airlines that will not fly over the rollover.

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

Hoff,

You might want to reread the post. The original quote is from BigDog.

He really NAILED Flint. It deserves to be reposted daily!!

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 18, 1999.

Hey Flint - turn on the History Channel right now. Roger Mudd is narrating a documentary on how idiots like you were duped by the press and government into thinking that Kennedy was killed by a lone assassin. Dejavue Flint. LOL

-- a (a@a.a), August 18, 1999.

'a':

What? I've never said a single word about Kennedy. Are you getting my opinion about his assassination from the same place you get your other opinions -- from thin air?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 18, 1999.

Computer Pro,

Allow me to respond to your statement:

"just because you profess not to know what will happen, does not mean that nobody does. I, and many of my colleagues, who have actually fixed this thing, do know. And in your parlance, we are happy to bet our lives on it."

First of all, I never said that I did not know what would happen. However, the implication was that I didn't, and I will state so now. I do not know what will happen.

Now, since you and "many of your colleagues do know" may I suggest that you and I, along with these "many colleagues", get together and go over a business plan whereby we may all gain a tremendous amount of quick wealth by making the vast majority of the world's governments and businesses aware of your knowledge. The last I saw was that our own government would be riding this out in a $40M bunker. My guess is that the systems of which you and your colleagues remediated may work just fine, but to believe that just because your work has been accomplished correctly is going to be the general rule, I simply beg to differ. What I actually stated above was that NO ONE, which will include you and your colleagues, can state with any certainty, that there won't be problems. Whether they be large, small, short in duration, or lengthy. You can hope, but that is all you can do. Unfortunately, there has been and always will be, an element of society that is looking for a reason to plunder. I only have to refer you back a few weeks ago to the power outage in New York for a case in point. The power was out in a small section of the city for a very short period of time but, one entire store was totally looted of everything inside. What happens if they lose power for a full day? 3 days? 1 week? 2 weeks? My gosh, and this is only one city! Lest we also forget LA during Rodney King. Throw this into the mix and now, suffice it to say that if things do go awry, a lot COULD happen that won't be very nice.

My original question still stands, sir. If this does become more than you bargained for, I dare say that your trip may not be a pleasant one, if at all.

And seriously, I am always interested in a business venture if you and your colleagues are up to it. My e-mail works....

Don

-- don (mrmtgman@aol.com), August 18, 1999.

Thank you Big Dog, Flint is not a real person, Flint is a programme designed to irritate thinking people. Like Mission Impossible, this programme will self-destruct in 4 months...

Flint is also a verb, as in

I really don't have a Flint [Flint]...

You don't have a freakin' Flint do you?

Flint off.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 19, 1999.

This thread started off with a rather reasonable question. Some of the people addressed (myself included) provided reasonable answers. It has now degraded into the usual "did so, did not" pattern. Pity.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 19, 1999.

We've just been Deckered.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 19, 1999.

Don --

Welcome to our forum in its full, uh, ripeness.

You've mostly brought out the better side of our controversy-loving brethren.

The real work in reading this place is still to sort out:

(1) The likely effects of y2k. (Lots of guesses!)

(2) The needed preparations for y2k. (Pollies: Do what Flint does, not what you may think he said. -- "Did I say that? I didn't say that! Yes you did say that! -- But I get ahead of myself: See #3 below.)

(3) The downright orneriness of some people online. (Internet is new. Internet chats flourish, so does Internet sex. Emotions emerge. Internet arguing forums! Everyone gets his 15 minutes of glory. It's about the Internet, stupids! If you want y2k, you gotta filter, filter, filter the noise!)

One final question: Don't these people have DAY jobs? (A subsidiary question about some pollies: Is THIS their day job? But we try to be polite. Also, see #3 above.)

It is almost September, 1999. Yikes! I'm grateful to still have some of August left. So much to do.

Troll count seems down. Thanks, Chuck.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), August 19, 1999.

Folks, lighten up. This thread, by its very title, asked the pollies about their personal views on Y2K preparation. They gave us those views. Ridicuous as they are, maybe, they seem honest. Flint could say that he is not getting prepared, but has shared with us that he is, even if its not Y2K per se. Hoffy has said flatly that he sees no reason to. Deano gave us an inventory of his kitchen, which was, I'm sure, a very intellectually challenging task for him.

A question was asked, well thought out (and researched) answers were given. So, instead of attacking them, thank them for their response and efforts.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

KOS -- Agree 100%.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 19, 1999.

Folks,

My highest regards to each of you who have posted a response to my original question. I have lurked here for quite sometime but never have really known what many of the polly's, and I hate to use labels but it seems we must, have thought about the "what if's" concerning this event. It appears that some have made rather detailed preps and others choose not to. I have no contentions with either. My curiosity about what they would do has been satisfied and I wish each of them the best in their decision. As to whether I may continue on in my own preparations, I haven't decided. I guess I'll watch the outcome of the responses to whatever news comes out in the next few weeks/months and then move on. Whatever the outcome of the Y2K debate however, it would appear that we should be able to agree to disagree. If we were all Don's, I know this world would be a dull place and I'm sure the same could be said by Mr. Decker, Hoffmeister, Y2KPro, Craig, and the rest of you. We ARE all different by design and that's what makes this an interesting place, both on this planet and in this forum. At the very least, we have been able to share ideas that may help others in some fashion, about what they should or shouldn't do. IMHO, everyone that post's in this forum is a contributor. Even the troll's. For many has been the night when I have laughed myself silly at some of the repsonses they give and I'm sure many of you have too, you just may not want to admit it. The interaction here is what makes this place work or most of you wouldn't even bother coming in here. In here, you can "tell someone off" when "out there" it is much more difficult to do so. This is a relief station where people are charged up and recharged to accomplish whatever it is they are here for.

So, as a famous guy from LA once said, "Can't we all just get along?"

Thanks again for your input.....

Don

-- don (mrmtgman@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Ray?? a?? KOS??? Andy???

One question guys???

HAVE YOU EVER GROWN WEARY OF BEING A COMPLETE ASSHOLE????????

Seems to me it would get old after a while.......once an asshole, always an asshole I guess......

You guys are, like, gownups, right???? Try acting like it once in a while. You might get laid...........probably not, but it COULD happen...

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 19, 1999.

Why would anybody want to lay a gownup?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 19, 1999.

Will

They probably wouldn't. Good thing caught my typo or one of those 4 idiots might have actually tried to figure out how to do it.

They're not very bright you know.........fanactical? yes........bright? not hardly......

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 19, 1999.

Plus they haven't the competitive advantage of being struck by lightning - twice.

-- level (the@playing.field), August 19, 1999.

Level

That's a 'competitive advantage'?? Never really looked at it in that light.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 19, 1999.

Flint,

Ever since I started reading this forum, oh so many months ago, I thought you were the biggest Pollyanna here, with the possible exception of y2kpro. This based on all the utterly hateful, rude attacks by folks like a@andy.asshole.

I have to tell ya, your postings on this thread are the best example of good logic and good planning I've seen yet. Thank you very much for sharing with us. What a thick hide you seem to have.

Personally, I am as prepared as I need to be, with the possible exception of a solar pump, which would be mostly for convenience, as I have a good source of potable water without the pump, but it will not be under presssure to the house if a power outage lasts more than a couple of weeks and my water tank runs out of water. I think the odds of that happening are extremely small, and I guess I'm willing to haul water to the house in a bucket if I'm wrong. Either that, or I guess I have to spend BIG $$ for a solar pump which I don't really need. Everything else I've bought will be used regardless of the severity of y2k.

Again, thanks for your insights.

Al K. Lloyd

-- Al K. Lloyd (al@ready.now), August 19, 1999.