I would like to invite everyone to give their opinion on the following scenario. When I say everyone I mean Polly, doomer, and GI's, one and all. Now keep in mind that this is just an exercise in critical thinking. Any similarity to any event, current or past, is purely coincidental ;-}

Let's say you're a leader in the free world (US President, Congressional Rep., Governor) and you have just been made aware of the fact that, in less than 2 years the entire control system that we (US Citizens) depend upon for everything from electrical power to shoe laces is going to fail. The statisticians and theorists tell you that "It can't be fixed in time, and we can't save everyone." In fact, the way the current supply chain and infrastructure is set up, we can only hope to save 50% of the population, if 50% of the population starts preparing today.

How would "YOU" do this?

You could tell everyone of the impending doom and let the cards fall where the may. The down side to this is, the panic would make the problem much worse and you would be lucky if 2% survived, and most of those would be the hunter/killer types.

You could tell no one but a select few. The down side is you couldn't keep it quiet even if you only informed 1% of the population. When the word got out that you had hand picked people, the general population would come looking for you, and not on too friendly of terms.

OR, and this is my favorite, you could tell the general public that gets all of their marching orders from the 5 O'clock news and Jenny Jones, everything will be just fine. You could even hire some guy and appoint him as the Problem Czar and he could give out good news on a daily basis to the press. In the meantime, you could make sure the information and evidence gets out in numerous government and other obscure publications that only a few of the more critical thinking population will pickup on. This would only make up 10% or so of the population but it's better than the disasters above.

So. Considering the above criteria, what would you do to save the largest number of people? Remember, the game is over when the general public panics. At that point, only the % currently ready will survive. Your goal is to get as large a % ready as you can before the game ends.

Bonus Round: What would you do if you only had 120 days left?

Is the government mishandling this situation now? Clinton, Koskinen, Bennett, Dodd, Horn, GAO, are all part of the same government. Something for everyone.

-- DOC (hoping_for@the_best.com), August 17, 1999

Answers

I would do what the British gov't did...start talking about it! Look, if people had, say 3 months stored food, H2O, cash, etc, there would be no panic buying in December. MOST of the Fix On Fail could be done in THREE months.

Talking about it is the way to go.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 17, 1999.

Doc,

I would raise interest rates in the hopes of getting John Q Public out of the stock market and into beans. I would institue the draft and create a lot of media distractions with violence and sex to keep the banks working.

I would put as many people in prison as possible so I could conscript when half my military went awol.

I would let statistics like - No propane available - leak while surrounding the report with a bunch of happy face talk. So that only the most intelligent and self-reliant would survive.

I would institue a special Federal Emergency Management Agency with unlimited power and budgets. I would use them to fund all kinds of things like building prisons and fixing bridges.

I would pray every damn day every spare minute.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), August 17, 1999.

I would unlock all the cell doors.

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), August 17, 1999.

i would be studying=PROPHECY-and prepping to meet my maker.

-- i would pray=daily. (dogs@zianet.com), August 17, 1999.

The big business .com folks fund the election campaigns of the .govs. The .coms think mostly in terms of quarterly performance. We are halfway thru the 3rd qtr, orders are placed and scheduled so that everything should continue thru Sept. The 3rd qtr should be pretty good.

Notice how many past market corrections occurred in October - 1987 and 1929 come quickly to mind. I think the 4th qtr 1999 and the 1st qtr 2000 will be (pause looking for best word...) unsteady!

As a leader in your scenario - I would begin circulating more details about the truthful projections and probable impacts of Y2K. I would readjust my 3 day BITR to at least a 14 day global disruption scenario affecting some but not all with some slowdown or shortages affecting everyone.

Given tangible evidence of problems many fence sitters will rush to prepare. I would alert the basic providers of goods and services of this change in strategy in adavnce so they can stock and try to handle the surge. I would be truthful and let the system react as best it can.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), August 17, 1999.

I would let the news out with an appeal to the best that's in people-- looking for community planning and helpfulness. Of course, that might be a stupid move. I might do what Clinton and this government have done.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 17, 1999.

I would realize how vulnerable this made us militarily. I would never announce what city/cities are going to be the most vulnerable.

That could be suicide.

I would make sure the information was out there to be found. Let the situation be spread by word of mouth.

I would stockpile basics, and be ready to do anything (including conscripting private cartage co.'s) to distribute aid. I would tell people to be prepared for a three day snowstorm, because I know it will take three days to get there.

I would let the vulnerabilities of the Pharmacutical industry be known, so people/doctors/hospitals have time to stockpile.

I would accept that some people may die, because the alternative may possibly be terrorist attacks/war & people will die anyway....

I would make sure there was some form of national communication that would work no matter what (National Guard Communication Drill).

I would extend a hand of friendship to the Militia ( who knows I might need their help).

If there was any question of Nuclear Reactor safety I would quietly shut them down at the last possible moment.

I would begin emphasizing the threat of terrorism/biological warfare as a tangible reason for the public to begin seeing more military presence than they are used to seeing.

I would step up surveilance of terrorist groups & stick to them like stink on sh**.

I would have private meetings with Mayors of major cities & Governors, and let them know where we stand (yes the truth) I would light a fire under their a**** and get them to prepare.

I would never, never forget we have enemies that would relish the opportunity to take advantage of a wounded giant.

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), August 17, 1999.

I would tell everyone to get 72 hours(3day's) worth of prep's, because that's as bad as it will get. When in truth the reason for that suggestion is because 72 hours is the menial time it would take to set up emergency shelters on a large scale(locally). Got Red Cross?

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), August 17, 1999.

It seems most are assuming that the decison was made with the goal of saving as many as possible, and the defense and protection of our country in mind. I disagree, if we are talking about people such as our current leader. Looking at his track record and history, I would expect the situation to be used to grab power. Since he has given away our nuclear/military technology and ordered that we sustain a first strike, I would expect him to "feel our pain" when he surrenders our country to some kind of global mediator. If you doubt the levels he could sink to, look at the following link. You might not believe every connection, but when is there too much to be a coincidence?

http://www.accessone.com/~rivero/POLITICS/BODIES.html

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), August 17, 1999.

I would tell the truth from the very beginning... obviously I would never make a successful politician or lawyer. I *really* feel if we have been told 2 years ago to prepare there might not be a panic this fall, not its too late.

peace, Dan

-- Dan G (thepcguru@hotmail.com), August 17, 1999.

First scenario: two years to work with, well its really quiet simple and Im sure the ( powers that be )deliberated this very fact. After many hours of deliberation they were forced into the conner and had to flip the coin on just two questions. #1 do we inform now and come out with a very well put-together plan that uses a going to war platform, and convert our current system to a storage building system and economy that aggressively warehouses everything that a people would need to have during and beyone the rollover date, leaving everyone else to help and or support the remediation effort, and in doing so crash the markets and the profits of the ( powers that be ) or #2 do we consider that, we the elite, having being privy to the real deal, knowing that if we take opption #1 when all is said and done we ( the elite ) end up on par financially with John Q Public, or as GN puts it smashing the division of labor , when we could just let things go on just the way they are, increase our profits, build our bunkers, protect our familys an when all is said and done come out of holes to a lot less of all the problems we( the elite ) had before Y2K, you know,welfare, gang violents, drugs, prostitution, aids, threat of Nuk attack, Gore for president, and about 300 more issuies. Lets see OK have you got the two headed coin...Flip...well thats good enuff for me buy the way ,hows the market today Senitor?..... Now the bonus question, simple answer...ITS tolate.com

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), August 17, 1999.

I would tell the truth, the whole truth.

where leaders lack wisdom, the people suffer

-- King James (an.iceberg.is@straight.ahead), August 17, 1999.

>> ... in less than 2 years the entire control system that we (US Citizens) depend upon for everything from electrical power to shoe laces is going to fail. [...] we can only hope to save 50% of the population, if 50% of the population starts preparing today. <<

Well, I realize you framed this as a game of "let's pretend", but your premises are so naive, simplistic and unrealistic that they could only exist in magical thinking or pure fantasy. There is no cause, no mechanism, no reasons given why this should happen. It just does. You point your finger and - bang! - we're dead. If we stand back up, you'll cry "No fair! I killed you!"

As such, it seems silly to treat it seriously enough to give an answer founded on mass psychology, game theory, threat analysis or any other realistic analytic tools. The quality of your premise inevitably conditions the quality of the answers you'll get. If you want good thinking, you'll have to do your share, too.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), August 17, 1999.

Unfortunately- when the people panic- it is not true that only the % ready will survive. many of those will not survive either under this scenario- the predator types of the unprepared will see to that. And many predator types of the unprepared will survive this way.

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), August 17, 1999.

I answered/ask this question a month ago. Had the fed warned the people 3-4 years ago there would not have been a problem. I think the thread was titled What is an acceptable death rate. You can find my thought there.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), August 17, 1999.

Les has pretty much nailed this one.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 17, 1999.

"So. Considering the above criteria, what would you do to save the largest number of people? Remember, the game is over when the general public panics. At that point, only the % currently ready will survive. Your goal is to get as large a % ready as you can before the game ends.

Bonus Round: What would you do if you only had 120 days left?"

I would leak through the same channels as you previously mentioned that we won't quite make it to where we thought we would be when we advised for a 3 day storm, and therefore preparations should be increased for a 2-3 weeks period of possible disruptions, all the while quieting fears about the banks. This would alert the already alerted to step up and increase their preps, and gain more converts to take it seriously. Panic averted again. The process wouldn't need to be repeated, as the momentum from increase in awareness would expand faster on its own.

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 17, 1999.

I would not want to let any of my enemies know my weakness, that is for sure. So to that end, I would make documents available for the looking (as have been made available), but only to any IP address within the USA. Sure, some might make it out, but not all would. Try to find ways to keep friends close, but my enemies closer so that I know their weakness as well, but not let them know mine.

I would put my best brains on the subject (Naval War College) and enlist the brains of industry leaders to help come up with possible solutions.

My hair would be all grey, if I had any left. I would show the signs of great worry on my face.

With 120 days left? Stop all foreign exports of food, and stockpile the country for the country. If all exports could not be stopped, I would cut them WAY back. Spend the trillion that just happens to be sitting around (yeah right) on buying from our farmers and producers to get them to ramp up production. [The purchasing from the farmers and producers would have to have been set in place a couple of years ago...]

To the general public, I don't know. Happy Face/Spin Machine or the Truth? Tough.... Tough... Flip the coin. Happy Face/Spin Machine it is. Thank Goodness, because if I had to tell how bad we could be (are) screwed, then the rest of the world would know as well.

Then again, I could do something to get impeached, so I wouldn't have to put up with it. But they wouldn't impeach me, because they think that it is the perfect ending to my term. I am doomed either way.

Thank goodness that the weight of the free world is not on me.

-- (cannot-say@this.time), August 17, 1999.

I would hope like hell that no one knew I was a lawyer. If they did I would try to find a escapegoat before the rollover to take the fall so all of my collegues and I would not be hung from the nearest tree when found.

-- Just a Lawyer (lawyer@lawyer.com), August 17, 1999.

Interesting responses from people who have NEVER BEEN THERE!!

Having riden THIS particular tiger, I can tell you that you determine what the minimum casualty rate would be (always a "Best Guess") and opt for that action.

Have been part of the emergency services contingent for two different types of events that put between 80,000 and 600,000 on the Lakefront here in Cleveland. the question we grappled with was "I know that there is a severe storm (NWS definition) which MAY produce a tornado (has in Canada) inbound and due to hit in 30 minutes. WHAT DO I DO??

The group, which came to consensus VERY QUICKLY, determined that we would NOT ANNOUNCE the storm incoming, but would attempt to protect as many of the safety forces as possible, for after storm rescues etc. We determined, using several other events, that we would lose far fewer people by NOT announcing than by announcing. We felt that the 50 -150 fatalities we could expect from a worst case storm (and the 1,000 or so injuries) PALED in comparison to the 1,000 to 3,000 we would kill in trample injuries, and the 5,000+ injuries again from trampling.

Whern I realized that this was where the Government MIGHT BE, I got VERY concerned.

Been there, got the T-shirt, it don't cover the scars very well.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), August 17, 1999.

BONUS ROUND- At D-120, I would be making strenuous efforts to protect the families of the people who were going to be needed in public care.

Chuck

(Unfortunately, until some grunt posts that his family has been relocated to the base he lives near, I won't believe they are doing even this.)

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), August 17, 1999.

Damn, Chuck, you people in Cleveland are a high-strung bunch, ain'tcha? Down here, in the opposite corner of the state, we get warnings all the time of storms that are likely to produce tornados. I have yet to hear of a single trampling death, as a result, nor of a single public official worrying about it happening.

I know it's sorta O.T., but you've got me scratching my head, on this one.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 18, 1999.

Two words.

Deep Impact.

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), August 18, 1999.

Doc,

Knowing what's best for the world....

I'd allow a select few the time to prepare full knowing that the world is overpopulated and that a few will be easier to control than the many. Faced with the posibility that half will survive then the elite will... no MUST lead the rest of society, yes the WORLD society to the beat of a new drum after the "end".

That way the Global society would benefit from the resources of the earth and we could all lead happy lives controlling the population and the "Priviliged" would comprise a larger segment of the real world population than the Third world nations that the First world nations don't realy need, but for labor. You see it's about disenfranchising the ones who have the resources, but who don't have a right to live.

Yes. That is what I'd do.

Oh, and I'd make sure that I'd control the resources and the money so that I would control the government and make all the decisions "for the good of mankind."

Father (Pissed at someone)

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), August 18, 1999.