RE: After 2000 On Tourism, Travel, Entertainment and Recreation...

14 August 1999

Perry Arnett

Pondering the possible economic future, [assuming that the reader believes some economic decline or slowdown due to Y2K or other causes is before us], one might ask :

What industries might be hit first, the hardest and for the longest period of time?

My answer : Tourism-Travel, Entertainment and Recreation

When one considers all the related or connected industries that provide for and feed into those three industries, the compounded economic effect could be massive.

Oh sure, "we will have always have the rich among us" who can afford anything they desire; - but rather than ALL the lifts and lodges and restaurants and parlors and pubs and nurseries and nannies and Starbucks in Aspen being open ALL the time, there may be just one of each; and for every Aspen-type resort that may remain open, there may be 50 other resorts that fold.

Ponder : ski lifts, theme parks, natural wonders, state and federal parks, movies, discos, hunting, fishing, boating, theatres, gift shops, tour busses, cruise lines, - anything that requires non-survival, or 'discretionary' money to fund; - that requires 'fun-money' or 'pin- money' to buy the price of admission or participation.

[I 'see' ski lifts and theme park machines and rides, trade and convention centers, concert halls, light rail, stadiums, golf courses, strip malls, parking terraces, sports complexes, Las Vegas! - 'destination attractions' - all rusting, unused for years, overgrown with brush, weeds and timber, - or stripped for the real value of their content; relics of a past age when people thought they were wealthy enough to afford leisure and fun, when in fact, most of them, truly, were not...having financed that leisure, largely, with non-repayable- high-interest-rate debt.]

Consider :

waitresses, dishwashers, busboys, cooks, maids, valets, chauffeurs, car washers, detailers, 7-11 workers, ushers, candy girls, ticket sellers, actors, directors, stage managers, light techs., dancers, musicians, - you do the exercise: list all those jobs and revenue-producing activities that are 'necessary and essential' for someone's SURVIVAL; then list all those that are not. You get the picture...

We could probably add to the above the 'financial services' industry - i.e. all those folks who make their money by taking yours and theoretically doing something with it that they've convinced you, you can't do as well yourself. If there is little or no discretionary money available with which to invest, nor to be speculated, or gambled, etc., [after it has been lost to a stock market collapse, or devaluation, or fractional reserve banking system collapse, etc.; ] most of them will be out of jobs too.

Thus add : realtors, casino workers, shills, tax advisors...

Then we have the computer techies : they sit on the fence in my book. If the general mood after the rollover is for re-building and growth, they will be in demand and do VERY well; however, if there is a backlash against thinkers and technologists, and the mood is to 'kill all the priests, lawyers and nerds', they won't do very well at all - - -

Other 'specialists" generally : - the more general ones skillsets, training, education, ability and talent, the more valuable one will probably be after the rollover, conversely the more specialized and one-tracked, probably, the less valuable one may find oneself.

Doesn't look like it's going to be much fun for most of us... Sorry, if I've stepped on some toes -

I don't have many answers, just lots of questions...

Thanks for your time,

Perry Arnett

-- Perry Arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), August 14, 1999

Answers

Perry,

I tend to agree with your assessment of Y2K impact on the travel/ leisure industry. I don't know if economists have a way of quantifying the situation, but a casual look at our U.S. economy today certainly suggests that we devote an incredible amount of money and jobs to support "non-essential" activities. People will spend whatever they can on food, clothing, and shelter even in a severe recession -- but they probably won't spend it on Twinkies and Cheeze Doodles, nor on a $75 pair of sneakers endorsed by some basketball star, nor on a 20-room mansion that seemed quite affordable when the stock market was doing so well...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 15, 1999.

Perhaps a little off topic, but I wonder about such things as "recreational drugs" (if that isn't the darndest combination of words in my opinion), cigarettes and booze. Will people give up these things for food and shelter or will they give up the food in order to not cope with reality and stay on their drugs? My husband always comments when an athlete is busted on coke, that "they have too damn much money if they can spend it on Will the drug trade coming in from other countries dry up or will it flourish? Taz

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 18, 1999.

Perhaps this could be the source of some of the MANY workers needed to "go back to manual".

I wonder if any of them can file (my 18 year old assistant has to WRITE DOWN (!!) the alphabet to file correctly), add/subtract/multiply/divide, and otherwise perform arcane, mundane tasks..........

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 18, 1999.

My understanding is that movies did quite well in the 30's. It gave people an opportunity to forget their problems for a while. Of course the movies were possibly a bit more uplifting than many around today, and they had electricity which may not be the case next year.

-- Bob Grove (mediatrix@mediatrixtours.com), October 17, 1999.

During the depression, most of the luxury hotels in the US went into 'receivership'. My area has a long standing 'tradition' of sorts regarding smuggling. During prohibition, it was illegal to transport or sell alcohol, if you happened to have it you could serve it, however. A well known watering hole never seemed to be at a loss for the magical elixors.

-- flora (***@__._), October 17, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Monterey has traditionally done OK during economic downturns, even though its main industry is tourism, because, although fewer people fly in from all around the world, families in the SF Bay area also rein in their travel budgets, and come here instead of going to Yosemite or further. Monterey suffered little structural damage during the Loma Prieta earthquake, even though they're closer to the epicenter than was the Nimitz Highway I880 Oakland-San Francisco bridge which collapsed. Even so, economic damage was great, since people changed their travel plans to avoid going where they thought the damage must be great. In a severe depression or gas shortage, even folks from the Bay Area would curtail their travel budgets, leaving Monterey with few customers.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 18, 1999.