To Whom It May Concern,

I run a small business that is in its 11th year of service. The business is in the constuction trades. We sell big ticket items in an average range of $3200.00 per sale. The business is the most recognized name in the community as well as the most successful of its type. My community has two fortune 500 companys in it and at one time was one of the top ten richest counties per capita in the United States.

My business has had consistant sales on an average basis of 160 jobs per year... Year in year out. In the last 6 weeks business has decreased 77% from previous years. I have talked to my supplier who supplies to other people in my trade within a radius of 75 miles around Indianapolis, Indiana. He told me that he is hearing the same thing from my peer group.

I have talked to the owner of the most recognized name in the business of Continuos Guttering (14 years in business) an average size Landscaping business owner (26 years) and a very successful Real Estate Salesperson in the last week. None of these people have ever saw their business drop as it has in the last month. Every one of these people believe that public perceptions or fear over potential Y2K disruptions is at the root of their business declines.

I will be spending the rest of the summer purchasing silver and gold as well as Precious Metal stocks. I will also be shorting the Dow into December. To me this is only prudent in order to protect my wealth.

-- May Gods Will Be Done In Each Of Our Lives (Prudent@prepaired.com), August 13, 1999

Answers

If I were the guttering contractor, I would be advertising rainwater runoff collection systems (probably assembled from his existing stock).

If I were the landscape contractor, i would be advertising "edible landscaping."

-- robert waldrop (rmwj@soonernet.com), August 14, 1999.

The last post reminds me of a small business success story in our county. We are located in a very rural area. At one time, we had more than a hundred dairies. A nice little local manufacturing business grew up in stainless steel milkers. Then the dairies all went bye-bye.

The milking machine manufacturer did not collapse with the demise of the dairies. He turned to the manufacture of precision stainless steel scientific instruments. He is now one of our most successful and oldest manufacturing businesses.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), August 14, 1999.

There are a couple of consumer confidence indexes that come out each month. They have been pushing record levels for a long time now.

A key indicator of things to come occurs when these indexes plummet in a short period of time. Looks like that is what may be happening now.

Here are a few more monthly indicators to watch:

1). Firm Monetary pressure (already started, slowly).

2). Sudden drop in housing starts. 3). Drop in NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers) Index.

4). Sudden weakness in stock market breadth (occurring for sometime now).

5). Breakdown in market leadership (going on for a long time).

6). A multitude of Wall Street Cliches being bantered about, such as "too much cash on the sidelines etc."

Keep an eye on the next Consumer Confidence report.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 14, 1999.

Trinity Industries of Longview Tx. has been building railcars since Noah grounded the Ark. I talked to friend of mine on ICQ who is a foreman there las night and he says they are halting production of railcars and retooling to build wind turbine (generating) towers by the end of the year. This is not some little welding shop, but a full blown super economy sized factory with multiple facilities. These are not little home wind generators either, they will be 300 ft. tall and built in 80 ft. prefab sections. He doesn't know the output of the generators yet, but estimates each unit will be able to power up to fifteeen to twenty homes or several small businesses. ( The generators will be built at another plant) Obviously the powers that be have looked into the crystal ball and seen a huge demand for these next year as the market for them currently is almost nonexistant. HMMMMMMMMM...

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), August 14, 1999.

Prudent@Prepared:

Funny you should mention business dropping off. I've got to agreee.

We own a high-end cabinet/furniture shop and have been in business since 1990. We have steadly been building a (loyal) customer base. (lobbists, lawyers, CEO (& their fundraising wives, which is *one of the best connections ever*)VPs, and private clients who redecorate every five years--our favorites!).

Then in June and July of this year the telephone rang *once* (for a job, sales calls not counted...grin!). And this was just to price *a* job--which we still don't know if we got.

I have never *never* noticed a slack off in this business in the Spring Summer or Fall (Late Winter (feb) is usually the slow time.)

But, on the other hand, I heard that people are spending unbelievable amounts this summer: On things like cabin cruisers, jet planes to San Franscisco and back (to Boston). On huge inground swimming pools (for Boston!!! Use = 3 months tops!). Cars, cars and more cars. And expensive, once-in-a-life-time vacations.

To me, it seems people are spending on the more frivilous as opposed to a lasting items. Built-ins and furniture have a life span of 100s of years--plane trips to S.F. have a life span of what? 5 hours? (And cost soooo much more...smile!)

(Is it almost as if these people know it's their last hurrah? wondering...)

I don't know what it is. I don't know if it's y2k related (I somehow think its not).

Since the end of July we have rec'd about 10 jobs to bid (good sized-- 20,000 average). And believe me, I am so thankful for that. I didn't want to have to give up the business, but I was beginning to think that way.

So, like yourself, I'm wondering too...

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), August 15, 1999.