(also posted today to TB2K Classic as "The Simplicity of Y2K: Infrastructure Threats)

It is likely, though not certain, that Y2K will not result in anything WORSE than a depression, though this will not console people who lose loved ones due to supply chain breakdown if such happens. Also, I won't rehash the differences between our culture and the culture of the 1930s. That is OT for purposes of this thread.

It is at least as likely, though not certain, that successful attacks by foreign powers or terrorists (international or domestic) will be made on U.S. infrastructure over the next decade. These attacks may be localized, regional or national.

If our government is to be believed (never certain), this threat is real and imminent (in the sense that attacks could be launched this very day). Some data suggests the Russians have been successfully penetrating our infrastructure throughout 1999. Experiments by our own military indicate that the utility grid, to take one instance, could be brought down successfully by attackers with reasonable access to money, time and knowledge.

Consequently, whether the grid is collapsed by Y2K or not, all key segments of infrastructure (utility, telecom/Internet, other energy, finance) are at risk until at least 2010 (ie, while efforts are made to understand and resist such attacks). Even identifying the perp is a major cyber challenge.

A wise social policy would call for a gradual but increasing set of measures to enhance urban, suburban and rural capability to function safely for significant periods of time should a successful attack be made. Beginning with rational civil defense/recovery against suitcase bombs (cf mainstream media coverage of Bin Laden), this should include encouragement for all reasonable civilian preps.

IOW, the efforts underway at the sister Y2K prep forum, while totally targeted for now on Y2K, should have a longer horizon in view. We need to frame a steady, wise, patient cultural "philosophy" of self-reliance that is suited to the technical age we live in (ie, not Luddite).

If we're lucky, a Y2K BITR will give us more time to do this, though it will sadly lower the urgency that might protect us better in the long run. More realistically, Y2K impacts will open a window, duration uncertain, to jump-start this process.

Y2K isn't complicated. Our global infrastructure has been revealed to have multiple exposures that we did not understand before (I speak as an IT professional with 20+ years deep experience).

Meanwhile, far from questioning your preps, take the long as well as the short view. Most likely, your Y2K preps represent the start of a new way of looking at your relationship to the technology that surrounds you. Whether you realize it or not, you are doing your fellow citizens a future service.

It's Y2K, stupid. But not only Y2K.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 13, 1999

Answers

I agree totally. I'll be sending this to some loved ones, hoping they will "get it". It is why my husband and I have decided that whether it is Y2K, natural disaster, or dread the thought, foreign attack and invasion, we never want to go back to a dependent and unprepared lifestyle again.

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), August 13, 1999.

Good grief, Big Dog, it sounds as if you've caught some disease. Don't you know that technology will solve all out problems and lead upward and onward to a better and better life for us all?

On the other hand, maybe not.

It's that other hand that's been worrying me for 10 years now. Whatever that disease is, I may be a carrier.

Seriously, I could not agree more with what you've said.

I like eggs. I like baskets. I think eggs should be in baskets. However, I fear that our culture has put all of it's eggs in the high technology basket while ignoring more fundamental low tech options. I fear there is a terrible price to pay for this mistake.

We seem to have gotten away from a type of common sense. Example: I saw a question posted somewhere that asked "can one read by the light of a candle". Now that's a fine question. The inquirer was obvioulsy using a computer, electricity, the internet, an ISP, etc. to ask the question.

The type of common sense that I'm referring to as lost would say "light a dam canle, turn out the lights and see if you can read something".

Maybe I'm overly touchy, but people are going to have to relearn a lot of lost skills. Common Sense being the chief. The FIRST key to learning ANYTHING is the admission that you don't know.

Some poeple have already started to try to learn some of the old skills. They are light years ahead. In my NTHO, therein lies wisdom.

-Greybear

-- Got Baskets?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), August 13, 1999.

Technology will always be with us, no matter how bad Y2K gets. People are too enamored with it and where there is a demand, there will eventually be a supply.

But the future ain't what it used to be. I think after this knock on the head people will have a little better perspective on technology. I mean it's a great thing to have. I love gadgets. But if my life depends on gadgets, I am surrendering a big part of control over my own life.
-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 13, 1999.

BigDog, I have been looking into some material lately that leads me to agree with you. Hopefully, most of us will live through Y2K but we will then have to face a world in which disasters are a regular event. Also, if there is consumer stuff you love a lot, get it now. I mean, enough if that particular thing goes away forever... Best to all.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), August 13, 1999.

we'll also most likely we'll learn that humans can endure an incredible amount of suffering.And most Americans who use the expression "I'm starving" have never really know hunger.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), August 14, 1999.

Big Dog;

Your Question: "Why You Prep For The Next Decade"?

The reason I prepare is that I plan to be alive. I have learned in my short time on this earth, that if I do not plan for my future, no one else will. If I do not buy insurance, I could find my self in the places that some people I know (laid off, sick, no benifits). I want to survive and prosper. I look at the situation, see how bad it might get (buy insurance) Dream of how good it might get (plan my retirement), and plot a course that will hopefully get me past the closest shoals.

The answer is: I want to live.

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), August 15, 1999.

There are some of us around that are used to living this independent life style. My chubby hubby and myself are two examples. I like technology too, but I also like my independence and the feeling that I have some control over my life, be it what I put into my mouth or how I make an honest buck. Hubby and I could go off the grid tomorrow and never miss a meal. I might have to dust off the oil lamps but thats about it. We have always stored food, grown food, etc. Have we done any extra for Y2k? You bet! We bought a bigger generator and we are putting in another well with a pitcher pump. Where we lived before we had gravity feed spring water to house and barns and heated and cooked with wood. Florida is a bit different and we are having to make adaptations for its climate. We are also older and the generator will help alot as when its on I can cook, run heat or air conditioning, watch TV, do the wash, take showers, catch up on dishes etc. I don't relish carrying all my water by bucket. Been there and done that! Real fun when its all up hill and you have to first break the ice. So we adapt. But we know how to do it. Our best preparation is knowledge and skills. We still have our mule, our pack saddles, our meat bags, slicer, saws, grinder and cuber and cutting table. We retired to the good life in Florida. Its fun because its such a different world than we were accustomed to. But we kept all of our tools for survival. And while I am surviving, I still plan on having some fun.

Taz...who is very grateful and sees her contribution to the future as a teacher of life off the grid.

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 19, 1999.