Y2K - 31% Of Atlanta Residents Plan To Withdraw Their Money From Bank

By Bill Hendrick Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff Writer 8-12-99

More than half of metro Atlantans are concerned that computers might stall at midnight Dec. 31, and nearly one-third are planning to put aside some cash just in case, according to a new Horizon Metro Poll by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Take Lynn Winn, 36, of Peachtree City. The Coweta County schoolteacher plans to draw a little extra cash out of the bank, and she plans to have plenty of baby formula on hand for her infant son, Hunter.

On the other hand, she's not so concerned that she would avoid being on an airplane while the zeroes are rolling over, in part because her husband, Mike, 44, is a Delta Air Lines pilot, and he's not concerned about flying.

"Everywhere in Delta you see little stickers saying, 'Y2K safe,' " he says. "So if I'm flying, I won't be worried. We're prepared."

Not everybody the Winns know is taking such a moderate view. "I have friends who are panicking and all but making bomb shelters," Lynn Winn laughs. "I'm concerned, but not that much."

The poll found that, of the 95 percent of metro Atlantans who've heard about the Y2K bug, 41 percent are "somewhat concerned" that it will affect them, while 12 percent are "very concerned." Thirty-one percent are jittery enough that they're planning to set aside cash.

The problem relates to computer systems that recognize only the last two digits of a year, and thus could read the numbers "00'' as 1900 rather than 2000. And, many people fear, that could cause computer systems to break down, disrupting basic services such as electricity, water, sewerage and even gasoline supplies.

Announcements seem to come out daily from government agencies, banks and other companies that they have the glitch under control. But, poll respondent Darryl Gillette asks, if so many people are so sure there won't be many people are so sure there won't be problems, why are the agencies and firms trying so hard to balm fears?

"I don't think Armageddon's coming, but I do see some problems," says Gillette, a 25-year-old computer scientist in Marietta. "There could be lots of computer crime. You could see your bank account emptied by hackers. The stock market could take a hit. It is a very serious problem."

He contends that confused computers will be easier for crooks to crack. "I plan to take out as much money as I can out of my account until maybe mid-January. A lot of companies started working on this a couple of years late, and now they're just crossing their fingers. But the computer security issue could wreak havoc. It's a legitimate fear."

The AJC poll found that people under 30 are more worried than their elders, women are more concerned than men and African-Americans are more nervous than whites.

It also found that folks with a college education are significantly more likely than those with high school diplomas or less to be withdrawing extra cash before Dec. 31.

When the poll was taken, in April and May, 18 percent of metro Atlantans said they were setting aside food, water or other supplies.

Cheryl Eversole, 45, the owner of a construction company in Lilburn, says she's not one to panic, but that she plans to take no chances.

"I don't think it's going to be the end of the world," she continues, "but I have a couple of generators. If I see salmon on sale, I'll buy 15 cans at a time, and meat you don't have to keep in the refrigerator in case power goes out."

Gloria Lamar, 49, of Atlanta, says she's worried about how a computer glitch might affect Wall Street, so she's selling some stocks to put in money market funds, and plans to keep a little more cash at home than usual.

"October's always a bad month for the market, and this could make it worse," she says.

"I work for Fannie Mae, and I know a lot of mortgage companies are not prepared. I'm afraid there'll be problems notifying customers, posting mortgage payments."

Lamar is also leery of air travel. "I fly all the time, but I won't be flying in late December."

She says she's stockpiling flashlights, candles, batteries and some food.

Several national polls have revealed similar skittishness about what could happen on or after New Year's Eve.

A recent Associated Press poll found that nearly a third of Americans plan to stock up on supplies, and 25 percent will take extra money out of the bank. The AP poll of 1,008 adults found that 11 percent expected major problems.

Like the AJC's poll, it found that women were more worried than men, and that younger people were more concerned than older ones.

The Federal Reserve Bank is preparing for the chance that many Americans will take cash out of banks. It's ordered $50 billion of new currency put into circulation to handle any runs on banks or ATMs.

In Georgia, the state Emergency Management Agency is urging people to prepare for possible disruptions, and will participate in a Y2K drill for law-enforcement and relief agencies.

"It's going to be strange," says Gerald Celente, a New York social scientist and author of "Trends 2000." "You've got the exhilaration of welcoming in the year 2000, but equally, you've got in your brain, 'What the hell's going to happen?' Will life on Earth be the same tomorrow?"

It's all but certain, he predicts, that this conundrum will make more people party in familiar digs, which means Y2K celebrations may well produce a baby boomlet nine months later.

"To be safe, a lot of people will ring in the new millennium with a bang," he says. "And I don't mean fireworks."

http://www.accessatlanta.com/partners/ajc/newsatlanta/y2kpoll0803.html

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 13, 1999

Answers

Glad to see fellow Atlantan's taking Y2k seriously. Just got our emmissions sticker and it's good for 2 years. The paperwork sez it expires in 2001, but the window sticker sez "OO".

hmmmmm.....

-- mark (none@work.com), August 13, 1999.

1/3 of people taking some cash out of bank for Y2K is much different from 1/3 of people taking ALL of their cash out of the bank.

-- Anymoumous999 (Anonymous999@Anymous999.xxx), August 13, 1999.

It is interesting to me that these reports always cast the preparers as being motivated by emotion, not reason. "jittery" is a perfect example.

-- ..- (Dit@dot.dash), August 13, 1999.

Dear Anon:

One third of us are willing to admit that we are taking "some: cash out. What happens between the survey and the front end of whatever line we stand in is HIGHLY unpredictable. Besides, if it's 1/3 of us, then it only needs to be 25-30% of what we have.......

CHuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), August 13, 1999.

Chuck,

Like to see your math on that one... or is it just a horseback guess. By the way, love Andy's leap from 31 percent taking "some" cash to a collapse of the banking system.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 13, 1999.

If I WAS taking cash out- I sure wouldn't be blabbing it to just anyone- especially some "surveyor". If that number of people admit to planning to do so- the numbers are lots lots more. Besides- what does "some" cash mean? to some folks- it means a few grand- to others- 25 bucks.......

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), August 13, 1999.

There are a few things that just seem common sense to me about this.

First, if people decide now to take "some" cash out, the actual amount they do take out will *increase* the longer they think about it.

Second, there is always a "herd" instinct involved and when the reports start coming in that people are taking out cash, more will do so.

Third, the people who say they will take out cash, in a poll, probably intend to do just that. The people who say they don't intend to do so are partly telling the truth and partly lying. Some people who intend to take out cash don't want to say so, openly, but they will be doing so, quietly.

Forth, all of this together speaks of a movement to "cash out" during the coming months, and that is exactly what has both the government and banks so concerned. And rightly so!

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 13, 1999.

Bank runs have been a certainty for some time. I've said this for over a year now. Stock market crash and bank runs by December '99 at the latest. Severe problems with oil imports by Jan. '00.

Y2K is real but only a sub set of the millennium problem. Factor in Solar flares, terrorism etc... A global depression seems almost a sure bet. Unfortunately some areas will have much more to worry about than the value of their paper money.

peace, Dan

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), August 13, 1999.

If 1/3 of depositors take out an average of 25% of their checking deposits in the form of currency, That's 1/12 of total deposits! Will there be enough currency to go around?

What are the current levels of deposits relative to currency in circulation? Also I've heard 1/2 of American currency is overseas. I wonder if they'd be willing to send some of it back for a couple of months?

Better prepare now. Not much time left.

-- Hawthorne (99@00.com), August 13, 1999.

from what I have read, and the numbers appear to be real, there is approx. $1.47 in "real cash" for every $100.00 on deposit with the banks. This tells me that if 1/3 of the people try to pull 5% of their money out of the bank, the banks will have to close. This doesn't include all the money overseas. The $1.47 figure is based on the Fed's M2 money numbers.

-- y2kdon (Y2kdon@hotmail.com), August 13, 1999.

"By the way, love Andy's leap from 31 percent taking "some" cash to a collapse of the banking system."

NO ddecker you DON'T love it because you won't get paid next year by your employers.

Thanks to all that have contributed so far (minus you know who) - it's evident that you can all do basic mathematics, have a grasp on y2k and have a grasp on mass psychology (unlike you know who).

Done deal - bear in mind that this is a small, genuine sampling. Nearly everyone I know has said they will be taking cash out.

Work it out ddecker you nit wit.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 13, 1999.

You can get a variety of monetary statistics at the St Louis FRB site at: http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/index.html

For example, the Savings Deposits -- Total file indicates $1,715,490,000,000 in savings accounts as of July 1999, not including checking accounts. Meanwhile, the Currency Component of Money Stock Figures file indicates $487,292,000,000 of cash, including US dollars not residing in the USA.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), August 13, 1999.

Don't have a direct deposit, physically deposit only what your monthly bills come to and keep the rest out in cash. If your monthly bills come out to only 5 checks written per month, you may be better off cashing your payroll check and get MO's to cover your bills. It may even be cheaper for you to go that route than have a checking account. It's stressful enough planning for unforeseeable events, and eliminating a checking account is one less worry.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 13, 1999.

bardou's good advice has one other nice thing: by not being on direct deposit, but rather CASHING the check at the bank that it was written on, there is no WITHDRAWAL being made. So, you have no worries whatsoever of being accused of trying to "structure" bank withdrawals so that you acquire $10K or more in cash, which is a terrible, horrendous crime, I guess.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 13, 1999.

I for one, don't plan on taking ALL of my money out of the bank. I won't close my account. I plan to leave in a reasonable amount, perhaps $1.47. Everything else will already have gone to cover checks that should have cleared a week or so before the end of the year.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 14, 1999.

This direct deposit scheme sucks big time.

I've asked my supervisor if I can have cash. She laughs.

One of her sons, a computer programmer, has told her there will be no problems.

Now would her son lie to her?

In my small city, a wage earner must have an account with a bank in order to get services.

No account, no service. Got it?

I plan on having very, very little money in my checking account.

I won't have any significant cash on hand.

I'm spending my paycheck, less rent and other payments, like crazy on preparations.

My coworkers think I've gone over the deep end with Y2K.

They're complacent, satisfied, comfortable, and completed brainwashed by what they hear from the media.

Sure, sometimes they have doubts and think they should prepare for that "three day ice storm", but there's still time, isn't there?

Yeah. No problem. The store shelves are stocked. No problem. When the time comes, hey, I'll buy some stuff. Yeah. I'm smart. I'm no fanatic like Randolph. What a jerk. He's one of those Y2K freaks. I'm more sensible. All in all, it won't be a big deal.

And so they imagine. Idiots. They will be caught unaware when they witness the JIT distribution system choking.

And THEN what will they do?

PANIC.

I've warned them, so they can't blame me.

But they will...

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 14, 1999.

Randolph: Could you explain the part about "In my small city, a wage earner must have a checking account with a bank in order to get services." Cash talks in my small city. Close your checking account and tell your employer you no longer have a checking account and you want your wages paid to you via a check. My husband's employer employs 23,000 people and most of his coworkers get physical checks. King of Spain is correct in saying that you go directly to the bank that the check is drawn on and cash it there. Given them your finger print if you have to, but get cash. It's yours, you earned it. If you all want to know why banks want your money desperately, I urge you to read Andy's post ""When Will the Bubble Burst?" Essential reading...double-decker, this is by a REAL economist, you can skit this, it negates all the crapola yopu've been spreading on this forum...plus it will just confuse you... August 13, 1999

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001EWx

It's 12 pages long but it's a real eye opener.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 14, 1999.

The ticket counter at the movies this weekend had signs up begging for $5 bills.

-- consumer (consumer@the.movies), August 15, 1999.