http://www.msnbc.com/msn/289048.asp

China buildup near Taiwan reported Respected HK paper speaks of troops massing on coast near Taiwan

CITING DEFENSE SOURCES, the Post said most of these forces  including demobilized soldiers and other forces not normally under arms  would come from Fujian province, directly across the Taiwan Straits. The rest of the planned force of more than 500,000 would be drawn from provinces in the Nanjing Military Region, which has responsibility for Taiwan. A source said training had started for thousands of militiamen and reservists.

The report comes amid leaks from an annual retreat by Beijing's top government officials and military brass at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, where they are reportedly discussing the most effective ways of bringing Taipei into line.

Meanwhile, China's state-controlled media continued to ratchet up the pressure. Swords and bows are drawn, the Global Times, a tabloid published by the partys Peoples Daily, said in a front page story.

Military conflict between the two sides could erupt at any moment, it said after more than a month of high tension since Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui declared that relations between the two arch rivals should be on a special state to state basis.

Relations between Beijing and Taipei soured last month when Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui unilaterally redefined them as "special state-to-state." The new wording, which conflicts with the "one China" policy that has helped underpin East Asian security for decades, was a bid by Taipei to break out of diplomatic isolation imposed by Beijing. The leadership in Beijing regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and has threatened to invade if the island declared independence.

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), August 12, 1999

Answers

Question, if the REDS attempt to invade and are repulsed with heavy loss of life, literally pushed back into the sea, could Taiwan assert a meaningful declaration of independance??

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 12, 1999.

From South China Morning Post [snip]

Meanwhile, the mainland propaganda machine intensified the psychological warfare against Taipei by boasting that should war break out, the island could not resist for more than five days.

"How many days can the 400,000-man 'Nationalist army' resist?" asked the front-page headline of the China Business Times News Weekly.

"Once war breaks out, resistance would be four to five days at the most," said the newspaper, which splashed pictures of jet fighters and missiles alongside the story.

The newspaper said speculation that China would not go to war because it was in the midst of economic development was "completely wrong".

It said China had not moved against Taiwan in part because it did not want to see President Lee Teng-hui declare martial law and put off presidential elections due next March.

The official China Defence News said Beijing's resolve to stop Taiwan from bolting should not be underestimated. Right now today this is a bigger threat than anything y2k can throw our way. Maybe it will just be 1996 all over again.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), August 12, 1999.

The USS KITTY HAWK and the USS CONSTELLATION and their battle groups were deployed to the South China Sea a few days ago.

My brother is on the USS KITTY HAWK.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), August 12, 1999.

This is getting really ugly. China has an agenda and a timeline and the rest of the world can only speculate as to what it is. They know exactly what they're up to and the costs involved and I get the feeling that this coming crisis has been formulated over years, not a few weeks.

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 12, 1999.

Heavy loss of life in Red China is a plus to them not a minus.

-- rambo (rambo@thewoods.com), August 12, 1999.

China not only thinks in terms of years, it thinks in terms of decades, even centuries. Witness the recent return of Hong Kong to its embrace following a treaty signed with the British in the 1800s!

This entire siutation is a very close parrallel to the U.S. Civil War, with the south breaking away and the North forcing it back into the Union.... WE SHOULD NOT GET INVOLVED.

-- M.C. Hicks (mhicks@greenwich.com), August 12, 1999.

Taiwan would be toast if China wanted it bad enough. Our ships and cruise missle's would be nothing more than a pin in China's ass. I seriously doubt we would raise a finger to help Tiawan anyway, because THAT would mean WWIII. No bout a dout it.

Sweet dreams to those living "within range".

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), August 12, 1999.

By "WE" I meant the USA (was responding to Johnny's post about his brother on the USS KITTY HAWK). Apologies to any Canadians or other non-USA forum participants.

-- M.C. Hicks (mhicks@greenwich.com), August 12, 1999.

MC, that's a great point. I got to study China a bit and this is something you learn quickly if you pay attention.

There culture is the longest running continual culture in the world. They understand patience.

Personally, I think what we are seeing is doctrine. It may be a hidden agenda, planned over decades, being implemented now. And, they are masters at dicipline.

One way or the other, we'll be involved. I don't think they intend on stopping at Taiwan. But, since they are patient, I don't necessarily think they'll be coming after us anytime soon either.

So, everything is dependent upon our reaction. Can we restrain ourselves? What is the point at which we can no longer sit by and watch? And, since there have already been threats against Japan, I think our threshold is close to being reached. We aren't very patient. We're kneejerk in reaction.

So, even though I don't think they'll be coming after us anytime soon I wonder how long it will take for us to go after them? And, how much does our reaction plays directly into their hands and their plans?

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 12, 1999.

Taiwan ain't backing down, if anything they are racheting UP!

http://www.stratfor.com/hotspots/chinataiwan/default.htm

1109 GMT, 990812

Taiwan/China/United Nations  Taiwan again applied for United Nations membership August 12, noting, "Over that half century, each side [China and Taiwan] has developed its own political system, social values and foreign relations. Therefore, each of these two governments can only speak for and represent the people actually under its jurisdiction on its respective side of the Taiwan Strait." Taiwan's UN bid is backed by Gambia, Swaziland, Liberia, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Marshall Islands, Solomon Island, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Honduras. Taiwan emphasized that entry into the UN would not hamper the eventual unification of China and Taiwan. Taiwan Vice Foreign Minister David Lee said at a news conference, "While seeking to participate in the United Nations, the Republic of China continues to espouse hope for eventual unification of China. The participation of the Republic of China on Taiwan in the United Nations poses no barrier to the future peaceful and democratic unification of a divided China; indeed, it can be conductive to regional peace and security."

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), August 12, 1999.

There certainly seems to be a lot of hysteria about China invading Taiwan. Has anyone considered whether China has the capability of invading Taiwan? The Chinese airforce consists mostly of Mig21s or so I'm informed while Taiwan has a modern airforce of F15s. China does not have the naval lift capacity to move 500,000 troops unless they plan on floating them over there on a fleet of thousands of junks. What China does have is missiles. I don't know if they can destroy Taiwan's airforce using conventional warhead missiles. I'm certain that Taiwan has taken this into consideration. Should China invade which I doubt, I'll forcast an unmitigated disaster for their invasion fleet with enormous losses inflicted on Taiwan. Neither side wants this nor can afford this. So I believe there is a sophisticated game being played leading up to elections in Taiwan next year and there will be no invasion.

-- brett45 (brett45@bigfoot.com), August 12, 1999.

and another thing

Loss of life means NOTHING to a communist.

Doesn't 10-1 or 10-15 mean something to the Chinese? Isn't it nationalism day or something like that?

That would be a good day to take back Taiwan.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), August 12, 1999.

www.scmp.com [snip] The situation was sparked by island President Lee Teng-hui's remarks last month that links across the strait were on a "special state-to- state" basis. Senator Hagel said: "All of us are concerned about Taiwan. We don't want this to get beyond the control of clear heads. This is potentially very dangerous."

[snip]

While Senator Hagel was trying to build bridges, a senior American navy officer said the mainland was unlikely to resort to force against Taiwan as Beijing knew it would provoke a firm response from the US. Rear Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of a US 7th Fleet aircraft carrier group, said there was no indication the PLA was preparing to use force against Taiwan.

Admiral Keating was speaking on the USS Kitty Hawk, which is in the South China Sea region with another aircraft carrier, the USS Constellation.

AND STRAIGHT FROM THE HORSES MOUTH

"If they [China] attempt to undertake any sort of operation, whether Taiwan or anywhere, they're going to have the US Navy to deal with," he said.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), August 12, 1999.

Guy's and gal's,

Remember that Germany was not able to conquer Great Britain during 2 world wars.

Why?

Not because G.B had this large army ... no the german army was many times that of Great Britain. They even had the more advanced wappons.

No its an Island ... thats why.

Conventional military wisdom says if you have 2 armys with an equal technology standart the aggressor need to be at least 10 times stronger and that's on land.... over water onto an Island....

look at WW2 and the fighting in the pacific it took a better supplied army with a vastly greater power every time to drive those Japs out.

Fact is, the Taiwanese Army has the advantage and the Reds a great disadvantage despite the big mouth they are having.

-- Rickjohn (rickjohn1@yahoo.com), August 12, 1999.

Mike -- Right. Anyone can pick up a copy of Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" and note how far back China's study & understanding of armed conflict goes... thousands of years. Few Americans (particularly non-Asians) really appreciate the Chinese mindset.

Rickjohn -- Have you considered that you may be defining "army" a bit rigidly? An armda of hundreds of thousands of pitchfork-waving peasants... rowing/sailing/steaming/being towed/whatever... over to Taiwan would certainly constitute a significant force, albiet an undisciplined one. This brute, mob force could be quite useful as "cannon fodder." The professional Chinese military could sit back and watch Taiwan as it is overrun and chaos erupts... or as Taiwan expends its military strength against the lesser threat (just as the USA learned in Kosovo... those missiles are expensive and get used up fast!), in which case the pro military of China get to come in after Taiwan has been nicely softened up. Just one possible scenario, w/two potential outcomes. Yes, being on an island is a big military advantage. It is not, however, an insurmountable one... particularly if you've got millions of bodies you can put into play.

-- M.C. Hicks (mhicks@greenwich.com), August 12, 1999.

Don't forget that a great many computer components are apparently made in Taiwan. Doesn't that constitute a US "national security interest."?

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), August 12, 1999.

CNN link

Report: China to attack if Taipei refuses to drop statehood claim August 11, 1999 Web posted at: 3:16 AM EDT (0716 GMT)

HONG KONG (AP) -- Beijing has decided to use military force against Taiwan if Taipei refuses to abandon President Lee Teng-hui's recent declaration of statehood, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Wednesday.

The South China Morning Post said the Chinese were considering an "appropriate degree of force," but the only option mentioned was the invasion and temporary occupation of an outlying island held by Taipei.

The newspaper, citing unidentified Beijing sources, said Chinese leaders are split over the timing, with hard-liners favoring military action soon after Oct. 1, China's National Day, while moderates prefer waiting until Taiwan's presidential elections next March.

The moderates argued that Beijing should only take action if the new president refuses to back down from Lee's declaration that Beijing must deal with Taiwan on a "state-to-state" basis, the report said.

Top Chinese leaders agreed on the battle plan at the top-level, closed door meetings at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, where Beijing leaders converge every summer to make important decisions, the Post said.

President Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu Rongji and Central Military Committee Chairman Chi Haotian usually attend these meetings, but their presence could not be independently confirmed. The meetings conclude later this week.

Tensions between China and Taiwan have risen to a three-year high since Lee's declaration last month, which was seen by Beijing as a major step toward formal independence for the island.

China views Taiwan as a renegade province and says it will use military force if Taiwan ever seeks formal independence. The two sides split politically in a 1949 civil war.

Military activity has heightened over the Taiwan Strait separating Taiwan and mainland China since Lee's remarks.

Lee and his deputies have stood by his statehood claims despite military pressure from Beijing and political pressure from Washington.

The Post said that the Chinese leadership has agreed that several top Chinese government units, including the Central Military Commission and the Leading Group on Taiwan, have been granted authority to determine the timing and severity of military action.

-- more (lisa@work.now), August 12, 1999.

My father passed away about 23 years ago when I was 13 and he some interesting insight into fighting on an island during WWII.

He was born in the P.I. in 1928 and fought against the occupation when the Japanese ran out MacArthur. He saw friends and family beheaded in front of him a long with a whole lot of real, armed combat.

Because he was of Spanish decent he was able to work gathering intelligence for the resistance. He looked different and spoke three languages, quickly picking up Japanese as his fourth. His job? House boy : ) All this and he was very young at the time. Sorry to go on about my dad...I kinda miss him, everyday.

Anyway, the point is that there are some key benefits to being indiginous to an island that could prove very useful to the Tai people. But an island is a military objective and I would think that the study of island warfare during WWII (though I have no real clue) would provide a lot of valuable insight.

And, since a few years have passed since those battles took place it might be that the Chinese have studied a few of the battles, worked out some of the problems and glitches and they're ready for what may come.

And, since the Chinese military does an incredible amount of business both in military hardware and consumer goods here and abroad I would think they have some fairly deep pockets and resources.

I don't think taking Taiwan would be too difficult, especially with the prospect of WWIII looming if we act.

What worries me is that the North Koreans are acting up at the same time. Something is fishy here. And, since we are still involved deeply in the Balkans having spent a whole lot of our military hardware it doesn't leave me with fuzzy, warm feelings.

I keep thinking "land grab".

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 12, 1999.

M.C. Hicks, a disciplined, well-trained force is gonna whip peasants with pitchforks EVERY time. No matter how many of 'em there are, after the first 100,000 get killed by machine guns or artillery, one will say to another, "Hey are we NUTZ?!?" and the route will begin. China does not have a true ability for power projection. Also I would think virtually every man would be up front, protecting mama, and that makes for a die-in-place warrior. Command of the air must be followed by command of the sea for an invasion to succeed. Hey, any posters on the Army War College Selection Committee? Choose me and I'll be your best friend!

-- Mr. Mike (mikeabn@aol.com), August 12, 1999.

The following scenario is very interesting. It sure makes sense to me. Bin Laden may also be cooperating with this alliance. -----------------------------------------------------------

selected exerpts from: Secret: The New Axis By Richard J. Maybury EARLY WARNING REPORT (from reprints of back issues)

I believe a secret alliance against the US has been formed by Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, China, Pakistan, Chechnya, Serbia, Sudan and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Several hate each other, but they hate us more.

If I'm right that this secret alliance has been formed, we need a name for it. In World War II, the USG's enemies were the Axis, so I'll call this group the New Axis.

Mind you, I'm not saying I'm sure the New Axis has been formed, only that it seems logical - if I were them, this is what I'd be doing.

The March (1996) Taiwan crisis looked to me like a test, a New Axis experiment to see how easily Clinton could be suckered into moving the carrier Nimitz away from the Persian Gulf oil fields. If this is what it was, it worked. The Chinese fired their missiles, and like a guard dog abandoning his post to chase a rabbit, the Nimitz headed for Taiwan. At the same time, Iranian-backed rebels were threatening trouble in Bahrain, so the carrier George Washington, which was in the Mediterranean protecting US troops in Bosnia, had to leave its post to make a mad dash to the Persian Gulf.

Let me emphasize again that present US military forces are entirely adequate to protect America, if they were in America, and they are probably enough to fight two small foreign wars. But what if I am right about the New Axis?

Suppose that, all on the same day:

Libya annexes the Gulf of Sidra, Sudan mines the Red Sea, Serbs hit Kosovo and attack US troops in Bosnia, Iran launches revolts in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Iraq takes Kuwait, North Korea invades South Korea, China fires missiles at Taiwan and takes the oil-rich Spratly Islands, and Syrian, Algerian and Chechen guerrillas smuggle nuclear, chemical or biological weapons into Moscow, Washington and Paris. Are these regimes smart enough to coordinate their moves this way?

What do you think?

Could US forces handle it?

No chance, they are spread way too thin. Outgoing defense secretary William Perry admitted to ARMY TIMES, "Our force structure is stretched pretty close to the limit in carrying out the missions and tasks that we have." If you and I know about this, so do the regimes of the New Axis.

Why would the New Axis do it?

Revenge.

Read the complete article at: http://www.chaostan.com/newaxis.html

-- Danny (dcox@ix.netcom.com), August 12, 1999.

U.S. Admirals delivering John Wayne movie lines and Chinese "peasant" leaders, with formidable and deliverable nuclear pitchforks, pounding their chests.

Who needs Hollywood or Clancy's books?

-- PNG (Peter Gauthier) (png@gol.com), August 12, 1999.

1) Count on China wanting Taiwan. NO DEBATE avaiolable here, they want the production aparatus, they want the LAND, they want the rebelious peasants put away.

2) Count on US involvement. There are treaties, and Billy Jeff JUST MIGHT be convinced that if he backs down here he loses the world, LITERALLY. (Thoough who owns him might be a problem for him but it's HIS conscience, and i feel sure he's not an honest cop....he won't stay bought. [def'n from father in law, retired cop, don't flame ME for it])

3) SOMEWHERE in the WestPac, either around Taiwan or Japan, billy J is gonna lose himself a ship, and we will see what happens to a spoiled brat the first time he faces consequences that actually hurt. i DO NOT expect it to be either a reasoned response or pretty.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), August 13, 1999.

Friday, 13 August 1999 3:01 (GMT), (UPI Spotlight)

CHINA SABER-RATTLING RATTLES U.S.

WASHINGTON, Aug. 12 (UPI) - Chinese authorities have been dropping hints to U.S. officials that the mainland is considering a military show of force to quell Taiwan's recent talk of being an independent state.

The Washington Post (in its Friday editions) is quoting analysts and military experts who believe China is genuinely considering its military options against the island, which the mainland sees as a breakaway province.

Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui recently said the island and the mainland should be treated as equal states.
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Who is going to push the button first? North Korea? Pakistan? Suitcase kamakrazee? "Use it or lose it" will push one of them over the edge, and then all restraints will be off.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), August 13, 1999.

HK Paper Says War Imminent - US Military Sees No Signs

http://www.insidechina.com/news.php3?id=85252 8-14-99

HONG KONG (Agence France Presse) - Military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could erupt at any moment, a Beijing-backed Hong Kong newspaper reported in front-page headlines Friday.

But with China's military preparations virtually impossible to verify, observers all face the same problem. The challenge is determining whether there is any truth behind the daily front page reports in Hong Kong newspapers or whether they,re part of China's psychological warfare after Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui demanded "special state-to-state relations" with the mainland.

There have been several reports of a military buildup on the Chinese coast facing Taiwan. But the U.S. Defense department said Thursday it had no information of any concentration in Fujian province.

The Wen Wei Po newspaper on Friday had a front-page pictures of a tank on a navy landing vessel and helicopters and ships taking part in drills. But there was no explanation of where they were.

The newspaper quoted Yan Zhao, a senior researcher at China's Academy of Military Science, as saying that tension in the Taiwan Strait was "more serious" now than in 1996 when China staged military drills off Taiwan after Lee made a visit to the United States.

"It will not be the same now, since he has hit the bottom line," Yan was quoted as saying. He warned that military conflict could erupt at any time as China was well-prepared.

"Our forces in sea, on land, and air have already made good preparations," he said.

Yan also said Beijing would not stop using force even if the United States was to intervene, referring to past history when Chinese and U.S. troops fought against each other in the Korean War.

China has kept up a propaganda barrage in recent weeks to press Lee to back down from his statement that ties with the mainland are on a "state-to-state" basis.

Hong Kong newspapers have also given prominent coverage of the China- Taiwan war of nerves.

The Hong Kong Economic Times said this week the Chinese authorities have deployed more fighters and bombers in the eastern coastal region, including 27 Soviet-built Su-27 fighters.

The South China Morning Post citing a Beijing source said China's People's Liberation Army was considering the invasion and temporary occupation of an outlying island held by Taipei.

Pro-China sources believed the daily media stories of the mainland's war readiness were part of the psychological war intended to "create panic" in Taiwan.

Taiwan's defense ministry has also made similar accusations.

China has repeatedly said it might use force to stop Taiwan attempting to make a formal split with the mainland, which has considered the nationalist island a renegade province since the two split at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. ((c) 1999 Agence France Presse)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 14, 1999.