Y2K Ripple: Major Recessiongreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Good story on the coming recession.
-- internet cruiser (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 11, 1999
Is this URL correct? I get a bizarre message when I try to enter.
-- Susie (Susie0884@aol.com), August 11, 1999.
The link should have been http://curren ts.net/newstoday/99/08/10/news1.html Here's the text.
Y2K Ripple: Major Recession By Steve Gold, Newsbytes.
August 10, 1999
While most of the world is preoccupied with forecasted chaos associated with the infamous Y2K problem, the worst effects are going to be economic - similar to woes experienced 26 years ago but more far-reaching, according to investment expert John Mauldin.
Mauldin, the author of "How To Profit From The Y2K Recession," and editor of the monthly investment newsletter, "Year 2000 Alert," argues that Y2K problem is going to be the mother of all traffic jams on the information superhighway.
According to Mauldin, the worldwide delay in fixing the problem is going to result in the first significant recession in the US economy since the mid-1970s.
Mauldin argues that anyone old enough to remember 1973-1974 will attest to how the reduction of the world's supply of oil by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affected the economy.
In the US, he said, the economy shrank four percent, while unemployment jumped dramatically, and it took years to recover.
Mauldin predicts that oil supplies will be adversely affected by lack of Y2K compliance by many OPEC nations. He believes this will be a major factor in the recession he forecasts in his book.
Mauldin says that, because OPEC now reportedly suffers the lowest real crude prices since 1973, and production cutbacks are forcing users to dip into stockpiles, the market is even more vulnerable to price spikes.
In 1979, he said, OPEC forced prices at $41 a barrel to offset the Iranian revolution, but the free market and alternative energies to oil, has put the price at about $20 these days.
According to Mauldin, few experts rule out a future oil shock and Mauldin believes $30 per barrel may not be out of the question once the ripple effects of Y2K compliance are felt.
Year 2000 Alert's Web site is at http://www.2000wave.com
-- Michael Goodfellow (email@example.com), August 11, 1999.
And Ed yardeni is still puts the the odds of a Y2K related recession at 70%
Money markets anyone?
-- Lewis (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 11, 1999.
Recessions are caused by a lack of confidence. Eg., the economy has been hot a long time, and inflation rises. The Fed rises interest rates a few points to cool it down. A handful of people become reflective and introspective, questioning whether or not economic risks are worth it. These people begin to dent the economy slightly. Then a few others notice the economy is dented. They run for Treasury bills and assets that are more liquid and more secure. Then a few others follow. Pretty soon it's a stampede for higher ground. The large corpoarations know this. The mainstream media, which are owned by large corporations, also know this. That is why there are so many sophisticated attempts at mass suggestion to lull any notion that things are NOT OKAY.
The change of ANY century has been associated with a big drops in consumer/economic confidence, resulting in panic and/or depression. I wonder if you add severe computer failures, choked supply lines, and the reactionary, neo-Luddite hysteria associated with the change of a MILLENNIUM, not just a century... The way money is leveraged these days and the debt situation is absolutely terrifying. Our economy is now a house of cards, and all it's going to take is one small ill wind to blow down the whole thing.
-- coprolith (email@example.com), August 11, 1999.
Ed Yardeni is being careful.
-- OR (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 11, 1999.