There is another thread on this posted by Larry that got lost in the shuffle...

Subject:	Y2K "fix" has World Bank in a tizzy.
Date:	1999/08/10
Author:	cory hamasaki <kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net>
	Posting History

Here's something that most of the "Y2K" news sources will miss because the story doesn't include the keyword, "Y2K".    Watch, within a few hours, they'll all pick it up because I'm posting it to c.s.y2k, your best spot on the net for Y2K news.   I've clipped in enough that you get the gist, head over to http://www.washingtonpost.com and search for "world bank" to get the full text.   When you're done come back here or got to the DC-Y2K-WRP listserv for more discussion.  You might want to hit the BPJJ Chatroom too.  The link to the chat and to the listserv is at http://www.kiyoinc.com/resrc.html   ------------------------- World Bank Computer Problems Leave Some Employees Unpaid   By Paul Blustein Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, August 10, 1999; Page E01   ..   The problem, which arose from the installation of a new and ostensibly more efficient computer software system, has frayed nerves at the bank, a giant international bureaucracy that is one of Washington's biggest employers after the federal and district governments.   <Banks get it.> ..   "It's crazy," said Gwendolyn Alexander, a 23-year-old graduate student who went 9 1/2 weeks before getting her first paycheck last Friday and is still owed more than a month's pay.   <No problems at Banks.> ..   "On July 14, we cut over 65 different systems into one system, and we have deployed this both in Washington and in 120 locations worldwide," Muhsin said. "In the last three weeks, we have processed 22,000 payments to staff on time."   <They'll fix all problems in, oh, 2 or 3 hours.  July 14 to August 10, I make that a long 3 hours.>   ..   But the affected employees, who estimate that they may number as many as 900 (the bank puts the figure at about 200) say they've been hearing promises for weeks that the problem was about to be fixed.   <200? 900? What's a few hundred employees when you're having fun.  Hah, I'll just flip a hanky with my hand.>   .. Wolfensohn has wanted to modernize and streamline the bank's fragmented computer systems, and the bank chose SAP AG, a fast-growing German firm known for its   <OOPSIE! There's that magic, fix-all product SAP!  Yes, SAP will save the day, unless it doesn't.>   ..   Short-term consultants were told in April and May, Choudhury said, that they might want to apply for advances in the summer because there would be about a month's hiatus--from mid-June to mid-July--during which the old system would be shut down and the new system wouldn't yet be operational.   But some consultants who have gone without pay said they weren't aware of that--and some, who started in June, were never told.   <April, May, June, July, August.  That's about 130 days.  Hmmmm, 143 days to go until midnight December 31, 1999.  Anyone else getting the picture.  Everything's fine!  Wait, they told the people in April that there might be a problem.  This means they knew in April.  Why didn't they fix it in, oh, 2 or 3 hours? >   ..   ------------------------ End fair use doctrine quotes.  See the Post for the full story, and come back here or visit the free listserv and let's figure out what's really going on.    Based on this, I strongly recommend that everyone take at least a few weeks to a couple months worth of pocket money out of the bank.  I'm not saying draw out 40 grand or your entire savings (although others are welcome to make that case.)  I'm talking about walking-around money, snacks, donuts, emergency dental work for your kid, a new battery for your car, normal, daily expenses.   Your mortgage, utilities, credit card bills can be paid by check even if the checking system is hosed.  Clearing the checks isn't your problem.   However, if you've got a flat tire and the man wants a hundred bucks cash for a new one, you want to be able to say, "Two fifties, OK?"   And when you've got the new Michelin on your Biscayne, you want to say, "Thanks pal, the tire looks real nice, I'll see you around."   My point is that weird stuff is already happening.  If you have the cash to make the deal work, that's much better than getting in a tizzy because some service provider can't get authorization from your credit card people (no slam on you, Arnold, it might the phone system, the FRAME RELAY service at MCI-Worldcom, or the power company.)   cory hamasaki  http://www.kiyoinc.com/current.html This will be in the next WRP too.  

-- a (a@a.a), August 10, 1999

Answers

>Here's something that most of the "Y2K" news sources will miss because the story doesn't include the keyword, "Y2K"...

Well, I run one of the Y2K news sources, (Sanger's Review of Y2K News Reports), and this was the first story that I saw today. I didn't include it today because although it certainly smells like a Y2K problem, it doesn't actually say so. I was waiting all day for other coverage on this, and will continue to look.

However, I don't want to speculate on all of these kinds of stories being Y2K-related. There is enough real Y2K news (although it's kinda slow right now) that I think it would be, well, irresponsible I suppose, to assume too much with stories like this. If it turns out that this is indeed a Y2K story, naturally, I will jump on it. In the meantime, while I do include non-Y2K stories occasionally, I think things do get out of hand sometimes trying to make a "Y2K connection."

Again, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if this turns out to be Y2K- related...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 10, 1999.

Yes, but the moral is: computers doing things you didn't expect or plan for can cause serious people problems. And sometimes even the people affected by code foul-ups will deny or cover up those code problems if there is sufficient organizational incentive to do so, i. e., employment opportunity.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), August 10, 1999.

Countdown 2Y2K

-- h (h@h.h), August 10, 1999.

Of course, Lisa. That's why stories like that are important. I was simply responding to the idea that "Y2K news sources" should include these kinds of stories. This stuff happens all the time (as the pollies would say). You know that not every black helicopter and white van story is necessarily Y2K-related, neither is every computer failure. (until proven otherwise) Ooops, gotta go, KIA commercial on the tube...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 10, 1999.

I don't think Cory was implying it's really Y2K related. Just that it's a good example of how software problems don't necessarily get cleaned up in 2 or 3 days, which is a platitude among the Pollyannas.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 10, 1999.

Yup. And the "coverup" of the "collapse" we're undoubtedly going through is going surprising well.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), August 10, 1999.

Yes, Hoffy, and its easy to pull off when Y2K problems like this (after all, SAP is Y2K compliant and replaced another system that was not Y2K compliant) come up but are never actually IDENTIFIED as such. And the first "victims" often are going to be the ones least likely to suspect or complain.

But this game is coming to an end, less than 5 months to go, dude.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 10, 1999.

Agreed there, Your Highness.

So tell me, what's next up on the doom agenda?

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), August 10, 1999.

Pshannon,

1. It appears that the problems are side effects of a new SAP installation.
2. It appears that part of the rationale of using SAP is that it is Y2K compliant (Hoff, it this so or not so?).
3. If 1 & 2 then: it is Y2K related.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), August 10, 1999.

You know, I wouldn't give a flippin' hanky WHAT the 'excuse' is.....3 months without a paycheck would be a disaster in our household. Something wicked this way comes!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 11, 1999.

Hoff, Flint, Decker, Maria, Cherri, ..........

Here we have a relatively SMALL payroll, where is their CONTINGENCY PLAN?? Why is it a problem to hand write a few hundred checks??

This is the World Bank we are talking about here. Banks are the leaders in y2k remediation and contingency plans, or are they????

Anxiously awating your valued responses.

YOUR Pak, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 11, 1999.

I agree with Lane, software problems generally don't get cleaned up within 2 or 3 days.....they often drag on for weeks or months or even years occasionally............

Also, Ray is correct in saying that contingency plans are not always simple to implement or reliable either.......

Where we would tend to part company is in the conclusions we arrive at from the facts presented; IMHO, the World Bank, despite this mess they are in, will pull through and they will not 'fold' and I feel the same way for most organizations. They will have severe problems with their software and yet eventually get their doodoo together and make it work.......

There is of course the compound effect of all companies and governments having similar problems at the same time; Although this again is not really a completely new scenario but varies somewhat because of the potential greater amount of simultaneous problems.

Everything taken into account, I tend to agree with Ed Yardeni and my best guesstimate would be a 70% chance of a recession due to the effects of Y2K. This does not preclude however, a potential for greater damage or even less damage than expected.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), August 11, 1999.

"Everything taken into account, I tend to agree with Ed Yardeni and my best guesstimate would be a chance of a 70 percent recession due to the effects of Y2K. This does not preclude however, a potential for greater damage or even less damage than expected."

What exactly is that supposed to mean, Craig. Sounds like something a politician would say. "My favorite color is plaid". Let's compound this problem by a bit, as you already mentioned you anticipate. How many employees have been without a paycheck for nearly three months? Who's meeting their financial agreements with others? We would be recieving letters of cancellation of services if we had any services left. Our phone would be ringing off the hook with "We need a specific date of your intention to pay, please." Three months would be grounds for reposession. Who else is being effected here, other than these few hundred employees? How many employees may find themselves in this scenerio by say, March of 2000? How many would walk in search of anything that pays? What would a hemorrhage of employee attendance do to some companies? Recession? Hmmmmm.

Now, let me see. If this happened to Boeing in Wichita, the local economy would take a heavy hit. What if Raytheon or Learjet or both experience something similar....Wichita would become an economic bunker, considering a very high percentage of OTHER businesses cater and survive off of the named few. Now how about similar experiences nationally? Globally? Still recession? You are dreaming, in my opinion, and the ONLY problem we're talking about here is the ability to process some paychecks. Will Y2K take a toll in any other ways? I'm not sure you have *honestly* taken the 'compounding, simultaneous, world-wide effect of multiple failures in industry AND governments' very seariously in your hypothesis. If you're a business owner who is having NO problems, how long will you absorb the loss of just one of the necessary supplies to conduct your business? What if you're unable to obtain 3 percent of your needed products, due to problems being experienced by your suppliers? If *I'm* working for you, I'd better seek employment elswhere (if possible) while you attempt to get your act together and I'd better hope I'm financially able to maintain my commitments in the interim. Recession looks pretty happy face in light of some of the news we've been seeing in the past 6 months. We haven't even discussed the loss of power, fossil fuel shortages, failures in government services. You aren't wearing blinders are you? Your focus seems incredibly narrow here. Do you simply buy bread without ever considering how it came to be on the shelf before you, in that wrapper?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 11, 1999.

There is of course the compound effect of all companies and governments having similar problems at the same time; Although this again is not really a completely new scenario but varies somewhat because of the potential greater amount of simultaneous problems.

Not really a completely new scenario? When have we had (or even had the possibility of) hundreds of thousands of glitches happening simultaniously before?

But varies somewhat blah blah blah. I don't get this at all.

-- Jim (x@x.x), August 11, 1999.

Now I know there was indeed a rare event in the heavens...No, not the solar eclipse...Ray & Will posting sensible, cogent responses nearly back-to-back! With only a hint of sarcasm to boot!

Thanks you two. I knew ya could do it.

Best Wishes,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), August 11, 1999.

It's bending my mind to even have to do it, in *AUGUST 1999*.

I seldom have the patience for the deaf, dumb and blind sheeple these days. When it comes to Y2K....I wouldn't make a very good 'Miracle Worker'. I've been known to prefer 'the Terminator' mode! It simply annoys me having to attempt to explain the relation between water and the word for it! :)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 12, 1999.

Here we have a relatively SMALL payroll, where is their CONTINGENCY PLAN?? Why is it a problem to hand write a few hundred checks??

Great question, Ray.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 12, 1999.